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Crypt Market Update

Solid ECN

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Last week, the BTCUSD pair had ambiguous dynamics.

First, the price fell to the 22200 area due to fears of a sharp increase in interest rates and the "hawkish" rhetoric from US Federal Reserve officials, as inflation in the country reached a record level of 9.1%. The regulator's decision was restrained, the interest rate was raised only by 75 basis points, and the head of the department, Jerome Powell, acknowledged the possibility of a further slowdown in its growth, which provoked a positive trend in "digital gold." The following data on the US gross domestic product (GDP) decline in the second quarter by 0.9%, which means the beginning of a technical recession in the US economy, contributed to an even greater decline in the dollar and the strengthening of alternative assets. Investors have again turned to cryptocurrencies as shelter assets, fearing worsening economic problems, which has caused enthusiasm among members of the digital community. Thus, the CEO of the Binance exchange, Changpeng Zhao, said in an interview with CNBC that the current increase in inflation, along with the decline in the world's leading economies, could lead to further popularization of digital assets. The businessman also considers holding the important mark of 20000 by the price as a positive moment, from which the beginning of a new growth cycle is possible.

However, the current situation does not yet mean a reversal of the long-term downtrend since the US Federal Reserve, despite the likely slowdown in monetary policy tightening, will not completely abandon it, and the final quarterly US GDP data may turn out to be better than the preliminary ones, which will once again force investors to buy the dollar.

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The price corrected downwards from the area of 24600, but for a serious decline, it needs to consolidate below the middle line of Bollinger bands around 22400. In this case, the quotes will be able to drop to 20000 (bottom line of Bollinger bands) and 18750. Otherwise, growth will resume to 25000 and 28125. Technical indicators suggest that the short-term uptrend will continue, as Bollinger bands are directed upwards, the MACD histogram is increasing in the positive zone, while Stochastic is leaving the overbought zone, but so far, the downside potential is seen as limited.

Resistance levels: 25000, 28125, 31250 | Support levels: 22400, 20000, 18750​
 

Solid ECN

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BTC USD - short-term price correction possible

The main driver of positive dynamics was the July data on US inflation: a slowdown in its growth to 8.5% made many investors hope that the peak of consumer price growth in the country has passed, and the indicator will now begin to move towards the target level of 2.0%, which may force the US Federal Reserve to abandon a sharp rate hike of 75 or 100 percentage points at the next meetings. It, in turn, became a catalyst for the active decline of the dollar against its main competitors. Also, the transition of the Ethereum network to the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) proof algorithm, scheduled for mid-September, arouses the interest of traders in the entire cryptocurrency market and “digital gold” in particular.

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The price has rolled back down and not consolidated above 25000. Judging by the reversal of Stochastic near the overbought zone, the decline may continue to the middle line of Bollinger bands around 23650, and in case the quotes consolidate below it and 23437.5, return to 21875. Otherwise, growth will resume towards 25000, 26562.5, and 28125.

Resistance levels: 25000, 26562.5, 28125 | Support levels: 23437.5, 21875, 20312​


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ETHUSD - Decline may continue

According to analysts, the fall of the second world cryptocurrency was caused by a serious decline in BTC, which pulled down all the major altcoins. It is likely that soon the trading instrument will remain in a state of uncertainty since two opposite factors will influence it. On the one hand, investors are waiting for the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, who may announce a further tightening of monetary policy or even hint at an increase in the rate of increase in the interest rate since the current inflation rate in the US, despite the rebound to 8.5%, is still very high. In this case, the US currency will receive additional support and strengthen its position against its main competitors. On the other hand, a further decline in quotes is hindered by the expectation of the transition of the Ethereum network to the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) proof algorithm. Now the developers are actively engaged in ensuring the security of smart contracts, and the update should take place on September 15 or 16.

However, the negative impact of monetary factors is still more serious than the upcoming upgrade of the Ethereum blockchain.

During the last few sessions, the trading instrument formed a sideways channel 1625–1520 (Fibonacci retracement 23.6%, Murrey [4/8]). The breakdown of the lower border of the channel and 1500 (Murrey [4/8]) will give the prospect of further decline to 1375 (Murrey [3/8]), 1250 (Murrey [2/8]). The key “bullish” level is 1750 (Murrey [6/8]), the middle line of Bollinger bands), which breakout will give the prospect of further growth to 1895 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%, Murrey [7/8]), 2030 (area of August highs).

Technical indicators do not give a single signal, demonstrating market uncertainty: Bollinger bands are horizontal, the MACD histogram is preparing to move into the negative zone, and Stochastic may leave the oversold zone.

Resistance levels: 1750, 1895, 2030 | Support levels: 1500, 1375, 1250​


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ADAUSD - Price decline may resume

As an additional driver for the asset movement, new challenges are seen with testing a key update of the Cardano Vasil network, which should lead to a significant increase in network performance through the launch of a data pipeline function, expand the use of smart contracts and optimize processes for the growing volume of applications in the DeFi market. Cardano lead developer Adam Dean said on Friday that a serious bug has occurred on the testnet, and nodes 1.35.2 and 1.35.3 are out of sync. He also accused the project management of the extreme rush to launch the fork, which is why the failures occurred. These comments raised concerns among investors that the timeline could be revised again, but on Monday, Ding said the bugs had been consolidated, and the outlook for the update is "better than ever," which supports the ADA/USD pair.

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The trading instrument is testing 0.4638 (Murrey [3/8]), the breakout of which will give the prospect of further growth to 0.4882 (Murrey [4/8]), 0.5127 (Murrey [5/8], the middle line of Bollinger bands). The key "bearish" level is 0.4394 (Murrey [2/8]), the breakdown of which allows further decline to 0.4150 (Murrey [1/8]) and 0.3906 (Murrey [0/8]).

Technical indicators reflect a downward trend: Bollinger bands reverse downwards, and the MACD histogram increases in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 0.4638, 0.4882, 0.5127 | Support levels: 0.4394, 0.415, 0.3906​


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Digital gold under pressure after Jerome Powell's speech​

The reason for the weakening of "digital gold" and, with it, the majority of alternative digital assets was the Friday comments of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. At the Jackson Hole symposium, the official said the regulator would continue to adjust interest rates even as they put pressure on economic growth. At the same time, he noted that the increase cycle could not be stopped or slowed down, although inflation could already have reached its peak. After the indicator approaches the level necessary for a sustained downward movement in consumer prices, it will linger in this area for a while and not go down. Powell's position did not live up to the expectations of investors who were counting on the possibility of a slowdown in the pace of monetary tightening in the US after the July rollback of inflation from 9.1% to 8.5%. The US Federal Reserve will continue raising rates, and the US currency will continue to receive serious support, strengthening against its main competitors.

In general, the forecast of Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz, who previously noted that the cryptocurrency market would remain under pressure for the entire period of tightening monetary policy in the United States, is justified.

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Currently, the trading instrument is close to 19531 (Murrey [1/8]), a downward breakdown of which will give the prospect of further decline to 18750 (Murrey [0/8]) and 17800 (the area of June lows). Bollinger bands downward reversal and MACD histogram increase in the negative zone indicate the continuation of the short-term downward trend, while Stochastic reversal in the oversold zone does not rule out corrective growth to 21093 (Murrey [3/8]), although its potential is seen as limited.

Resistance levels: 20312, 21093, 21875 | Support levels: 19531, 18750, 17800​
 

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The second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization, ETH, is trading within a correction to the recent significant decline, consolidating around 1644.

ETHUSD, H4

The four-hour chart of the asset shows that the downward movement is developing within the framework of a possible Step pattern, where the second and last step has almost completed their formation. According to the implementation theory, in this case, the current global trend will continue, and the key support for the price will be the initial Fibonacci 23.6% correction at 1517, the breakdown of which will open the way for quotes to the 1252 area.

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ETHUSD, D1
On the daily chart, a corrective upward wave is forming, which has recently consolidated below the support line of the local Flag pattern around 1660. The key support at the initial correction of 23.6% Fibonacci around 1517 has not yet been broken, which allows traders to hope to hold their positions at the current values for some time.

Technical indicators maintain a global sell signal, ignoring the local correction: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is in the negative zone.

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Resistance levels: 1900, 2200 | Support levels: 1517, 1252​
 

Solid ECN

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XRPUSD - Downward dynamics

The XRP coin is moving within a corrective sideways channel, reversing downwards, and is currently at 0.3166.

H4
On the four-hour chart of the asset, the local downward wave is a narrow corridor within which the price rebounded from the resistance line at 0.3417 and reversed downwards with the target at the lower border of the 0.27 range. Technical indicators gave a signal to sell: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is actively decreasing in the sell zone.

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D1
On the daily chart, a sideways channel forms with dynamic boundaries of 0.2950–0.4240, while the price continues to decline towards the support line at 0.2950. Technical indicators strengthen the sell signal: indicator Alligator’s EMA oscillation range expands, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms new downward bars. In general, both charts indicate a likely continuation of the downward movement, the global target is to exit the sideways channel and decline to a historical low of around 0.2350.

Resistance levels: 0.3520, 0.4215 | Support levels: 0.2950, 0.2350

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The XRP coin moves within a corrective sideways channel at 0.3364, reversing downwards.

H4

On the four-hour chart, the key support is 0.3130. After its breakdown, the decline may reach the year's low of 0.2873. The technical indicators have already fully reversed and issued a sell signal: the Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is actively decreasing in the sell zone.

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D1
On the daily chart of the asset, a local ascending channel is forming with dynamic boundaries 0.3200–0.4200, and the price continues to decline towards the support line at 0.3130. Technical indicators are uncertain and preparing to issue a new sell signal: the Alligator indicator's EMA oscillation range is still quite narrow, and the AO oscillator histogram forms downward bars.

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Overall, both charts point to a likely continuation of the decline, with a global target around the all-time low of 0.2873.

Resistance levels: 0.3605, 0.4299 | Support levels: 0.3136, 0.2873​
 

Solid ECN

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BTCUSD - The price falls before the next meeting of the US Federal Reserve

BTC is declining before the meeting of the US Federal Reserve. It is expected that this week the agency will again raise the interest rate by another 75.0 points, and several investors are considering the possibility of growth by 100 points at once, as a result of which the rate will be at the highest level since 2008 and will continue to put serious pressure on speculative assets, including digital ones. In the context of rapid inflation, the US regulator will keep interest rates high for a long time, even after they reach the "neutral" level. Thus, the negative impact on the cryptocurrency market will be long-term.

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The trading instrument maintains a short-term downward trend. The breakdown of 18750 gives the prospect of further decline to 17800 (June lows), 17187.5 (Murrey [–2/8]), and 16900 (Fibonacci 100.00 extension). The key "bullish" level is 20312.50 (Murrey [2/8]), supported by the middle line of Bollinger bands. If it consolidates above it, the quotes may begin to recover to 21875 (Murrey [4/8], the upper line of Bollinger bands), 23437.5 ( Murrey [6/8]), 25000 (Murrey [8/8], Fibonacci retracement 23.6%).

Technical indicators reflect the possibility of further decline: Bollinger bands are reversing downwards, the MACD histogram is increasing in the negative zone, and Stochastic is horizontal near the oversold zone.

Resistance levels: 20312.5, 21875, 23437.5, 25000 | Support levels: 17800, 17187.5, 16900​
 

Solid ECN

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XRPUSD - Growth contrary to general market trends

Over the weekend, Ripple Labs and SEC lawyers filed motions for a summary judgment in the case, signaling the imminent completion of a process in which the company has a significant chance of winning, as officials could not prove that the XRP token fully met the definition of a security. The chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Caroline D. Pham, also visited the corporation's central office, where she met with the head of Ripple, Brad Garlinghouse. Although the parties did not announce the purpose of the visit, its very fact was positively assessed by the market, as it may indicate a gradual decrease in pressure from American regulators on the crypto company. All this caused a new interest of investors, first of all, "whales" in the XRP token, provoking the strengthening of its position.

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The trading instrument rose above 0.4150 (Murrey [+1/8]), which gives the prospect of further growth to 0.4395 (Murrey [+2/8]), 0.4600, 0.4950. If 0.3906 (Murrey [8/8]) is broken down, the decline may resume to 0.3418 (Murrey [6/8]). Technical indicators confirm the upward trend: Bollinger bands reverse upwards, the MACD histogram increases in the positive zone, and Stochastic may leave the overbought zone, but the downside potential is limited.

Resistance levels: 0.4395, 0.4600, 0.4950 | Support levels: 0.3906, 0.3662, 0.3418​
 

Solid ECN

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XRPUSD - Murray analysis​

Against the background of the possible imminent completion of the lawsuit by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against Ripple Labs, the token price rose to five-month highs around 0.5548, after which it resumed its decline, which continues to this day. Now the quotes are close to the 0.4000-0.3906 support zone (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, Murray [0/8]), the breakdown of which will open the prospect of a further decline to 0.3418 (Murray [-1/8]), 0.3200, 0.2930 (Murray [-2/8]). With a reverse breakout of 0.4395 (Murray [1/8], Fibo retracement 23.6%), the instrument is likely to return to 0.4883 (Murray [2/8]) and 0.5219 (Fibo retracement 38.2%).

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Technical indicators do not give a single signal: the Bollinger Bands are reversing upwards, confirming the preservation of the short-term upward trend, but the Stochastic is directed downwards, and the MACD histogram is decreasing in the positive zone, not excluding the development of a decline.

Resistance levels: 0.4395, 0.4883, 0.5219 | Support levels: 0.3906, 0.3418, 0.3200, 0.2930​
 
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