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Forex Forum EUR, USD, JPY, GBP, CAD, AUD Market Analysis and Daily Forecast

somrat4030

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Staff member

Mar-13, 2022, Forex trading daily analysis and Currency market latest updates, by Forex Forum.​


forex trading news today

EUR/USD – BEARISH​

The US Dollar ended little changed against the Euro this past week, but it should be noted that EUR/USD trimmed all its gains that it once achieved from earlier in that period. While this is primarily a technical piece, it should be noted that the ongoing situation in Ukraine continues to play a key role for the single currency. An escalation in conflict would likely further pressure the Euro in the week ahead.

Closing under the March 7th low at 1.0806 exposes the bottom from April 2020, making for a key zone of support from 1.0727 – 1.0793. Beyond that sits the 2020 low at 1.0636 and under that is the 138.2% Fibonacci extension of 1.0496. In the event of a turn higher, keep a close eye on the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) as well as the former 1.1122 – 1.1186 support zone. The latter could step in as new resistance.

On the other hand, It's no secret that USD/JPY has been trending consistently higher for nearly six months now, but some traders have been caught off guard by the ferocity of Friday's move through resistance.

USD/JPY, the pair has been riding its 50-day EMA higher since September, though the price action over the last four months could be better characterized as an ascending triangle, with higher lows showing increasing pressure on a horizontal level of resistance, in this case at 116.35. The textbook explanation for the pattern is that once an instrument breaks above its resistance line as we saw Friday.

AUD/USD – NEUTRAL​

The US Dollar slightly gained against the Australian Dollar this past week, with AUD/USD leaving behind a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. A confirmatory close under the former 0.7273 – 0.7314 resistance zone, which seems to be holding as new support, could open the door to reversing the February uptrend. Such an outcome would place the focus on rising support – blue lines on the chart below.

Rising support could maintain the upside focus. Still, falling resistance from February 2021 continues to guide the pair lower. With that in mind, these converging trendlines may keep the Aussie in a consolidative state until a breakout is found. Immediate resistance seems to be the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7430. Above the latter is the October high. Breaking under rising support exposes the January low.

Elsewhere, The USD/RUB pair is hovering near its all-time high as investors avoid the toxic Russian ruble. It is trading at 114.8, which is a few points below its all-time high of 121. It has jumped by over 50% this year and more than 64% from its lowest level in 2021.

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Russia crisis escalates​
The Russian ruble has collapsed in the past few three weeks as investors react to the ongoing invasion in Ukraine.

Russia says it killed up to 180 foreign fighters based in Ukraine in a missile attack on a military base close to the Polish border.

Moscow added that the strike on the base, which is west of Lviv, had destroyed a large amount of weapons supplied to Kyiv by the West.

"As a result of the strike, up to 180 foreign mercenaries and a large cache of foreign weapons were destroyed," Russian defence ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said.

Ukraine said earlier today that only 35 people had been killed and 134 wounded in the attack.

Military experts said Russia had targeted the training centre – the most westward of any shelling yet – in an attempt to warn off foreign fighters and stem the flow of military equipment from the West into Ukraine.

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somrat4030

Well-known member
Staff member

Mar-15, 2022, Currency Trading Daily Analysis and Market Forecast, By Forex Forum.​


Forex trading news

USD/JPY Technical Analysis​


USD/JPY has been on a tear in recent weeks, surging more than 2.6% since the beginning of the month amid widespread U.S. dollar strength in the FX market. On Monday, the pair maintains bullish momentum, and is up approximately 0.6% to 117.98, supported by rising U.S. Treasury yields ahead of a key event this week: the Federal Reserve rate decision.

On Wednesday, the FOMC will conclude its two-day March meeting and unveil its monetary policy decision at 14:00 ET. The central bank is expected to raise borrowing costs by 25 basis points to a range of 0.25-0.50% amid rising inflationary pressures and tight labor market conditions.

The start of the liftoff has been telegraphed thoroughly, so the focus will be on forward guidance and the macroeconomic assessment, which includes the dot-plot, a diagram showing projections of the federal funds rate for the forecast horizon.

On the other hand, The EUR/USD found support above 1.0930 and climbed back toward the daily high it hit on European hours at 1.0989, boosted by a stronger euro and a mixed US dollar.

Looking at 1.1000

The EUR/USD is holding onto daily gains, facing resistance at 1.1000, not only a round number, but also where the 20-Simple Moving Average stands in four-hour charts. A recovery above should add support to the euro, exposing the next resistance at 1.1035. Above the following resistance levels might be seen at 1.1070 and 1.1095.

If the pair fails to recover 1.1000 over the next hours, a potential decline back to 1.0935 should be considered. The area also contains the 20-hour SMA. Below attention would turn to 1.0895/1.0900, below the bearish pressure should intensify.

Source: fxstreet.com/news

Elsewhere, The dollar dipped modestly against a basket of currencies on Monday but remained near a 21-month high hit last week as investors eyed Russia-Ukraine peace talks, while major central bank meetings this week kept large moves in foreign exchange in check.​


The dollar index fell 0.056% at 98.96, not far from the 99.415 touched a week ago, the highest level for the greenback since May 2020.

Tentative hopes of progress in peace talks between Ukraine and Russia helped boost the appetite for riskier currencies on Monday, though upcoming central bank meetings and another COVID-19 pandemic-related lockdown in China kept risk-taking muted.

Russian and Ukrainian delegations held a fourth round of talks on Monday - by video link this time rather than in person in neighboring Belarus as in the past - but no new progress was announced and talks are expected to resume on Tuesday.

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On the other hand, The Russian ruble strengthened to below 115 per USD on Monday as diplomatic efforts to end the war continued.
Ukraine said "hard" talks on a ceasefire, immediate withdrawal of troops and security guarantees with Russia were held although negotiations were paused until Tuesday. The ruble is still down about 40% since the Russian attack on Ukraine started amid a series of harsh Western sanctions, effectively cutting the country off from the global financial system and targeting its key public and private institutions. Amid these developments, the Bank of Russia has so far responded with a more than double policy rate hike to 20% and introduced a range of capital control measures to defend its currency from further depreciation.

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somrat4030

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Staff member

Mar-15, 2022, Daily currency trading technical analysis and market forecast, by forex forum.​


Daily trading analysis

The euro is losing ground on Tuesday's US trading session after failing to extend beyond the 1.1000 level for the second day in a row. The pair is giving away earlier gains and remains barely changed on the daily chart, trading right above 1.0950.

EUR/USD could extend its decline towards 1.05 – BofA​


In the longer-term, the Bank of America Global Research sees the euro extending its downtrend over the coming months: "Initiation of Fed hiking cycles has typically not boded well for USD prospects, but a hawkish Fed tone amid high inflation risks could end up supporting the dollar for a while longer if terminal rate expectations continue to rise against the backdrop of persistent risk aversion and high commodity prices related to the war in Ukraine (…) We recently downwardly-revised our EUR/USD forecast to 1.05 and continue to see downside potential over a short to medium-term horizon."

On the other hand, USD/CHF: Retail trader data shows 47.35% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.11 to 1.​

Our data shows traders are now at their least net-long USD/CHF since Sep 20 when USD/CHF traded near 0.93. The number of traders net-long is 10.36% lower than yesterday and 12.34% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.53% lower than yesterday and 55.56% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CHF prices may continue to rise.

Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/CHF-bullish contrarian trading bias.

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Elsewhere, GBP/USD staled its early advance below the 1.3100 figure, now stable at around 1.3060. Upbeat UK employment figures maintain the British Pound afloat, despite increased demand for the greenback.​

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the four-hour chart stays near 40 and GBP/USD continues to trade below the 20-period SMA, suggesting that buyers are yet to control the pair's action.

Source: instaforex.com/forex

Moreover, 4-hourly MACD has diverged in favor of the bulls. MACD histograms has produced higher lows , contradicting lower lows on the price chart. That bullish divergence indicates a potential for a corrective bounce which confirms the reversal chart pattern formation ( falling wedge) after the breakout of pattern.

Moreover, The EUR/GBP pair rallies after ending its temporary retreat. The European cross at 0.8453 at the time of writing. It seems determined to extend its upward movement. Technically, the currency pair signaled strong upward movement after taking out strong near-term resistance levels. The UK reported positive figures earlier, but the British Pound resumes a sell-off versus the Euro.

ZEW Economic Sentiment 10.3 expected
Later, the Euro-zone ZEW Economic Sentiment could be reported at 10.3 points below 48.6 in the previous reporting period. In addition, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment is expected at 5.2 points in March versus 54.3 in February, while the Euro-zone Industrial Production may register a 0.0% growth.

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somrat4030

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Staff member

Mar-16, 2022, Daily Currency trading analysis, By forex forum.


Daily currency trading news

EUR/USD is still challenging the level of 1.10, taking advantage of the soft US dollar.​


Nevertheless, the price retreats to 1.09 whenever traders try to test 1.1000. They have lots of attempts to break that level. The key resistance level is still hard nut to crack for the buyers of EUR/USD despite price bounces. It is important not only to pass that level but also to settle above.

It is a tough challenge because traders don't dare to climb higher. They prefer to take profit at around 1.10, putting pressure on the currency pair. It is currently facing two opposite forces. On the one hand, the US dollar is weighed down by some optimism about a peaceful solution to the Russia – Ukraine talks. On the other hand, the euro is facing risks of stagflation. For the time being, traders are poised to buy EUR/USD amid the soft greenback.

The Federal Reserve's verdict on monetary policy that is on tap later today are sure to clear up market sentiment. It is risky to trade currency pairs with the US dollar against such a controversial fundamental background that obscures a trajectory of currency pairs in the short term.

Moreover, EUR/USD TECHS: SELLING INTO EURO STRENGTH CONTINUES

The Euro has failed to rise with any significant momentum since June 2021 – providing numerous opportunities to sell the pair on pullbacks. Admittedly, EUR/USD temporarily broke above trendline resistance, peaking around 1.1495 before trading back below the line.

More recently, price action looks to have formed a triangle pattern as the market positions itself ahead of the FOMC announcement later today. Such consolidation creates a helpful criteria to assess post-FOMC price movement. While price action around the event is likely to be rather volatile, traders can use the high and the low of the triangle as tripwires to assess near-term breakout opportunities once the dust has settled.

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On the other hand, On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve hiked 25 basis points the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) for the first time in three years. At press time, the GBP/USD is trading around 1.3053, clinging to 0.10% gains.

GBP/USD's Market reaction​

The British pound dropped from nearly 1.3100 towards 1.3060 once the headline crossed the wires, while the US 10-year Treasury note yield rose to 2.212%, the highest since May 2019.

Meanwhile, the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) revealed the dot-plot, where Fed board members expect at least seven hikes in 2022.

Regarding the labor market, the committee expects the Unemployment rate to hit 3.5% by the end of 2022 and remain at that level in the following year. Policymakers expected to begin reducing Fed's holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) at a coming meeting. They added that they would adjust monetary policy stance as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede Fed's goals.

Source: fxstreet.com/news

Elsewhere, USD/JPY market has been surprised by the level of hawkishness in the FOMC's dot plot. It indicates 7 rates hikes this year and a Fed funds rate at 2.8% at the end of 2024, which is above the Fed's long-term neutral rate.​

The market has already adjusted from pricing in 7 hikes to 8 hikes.

The dollar is broadly stronger in the aftermath of this. USD/JPY has rallied to 118.89 from 118.59 beforehand. That's indicative of a broad USD move.

The market is now pricing in a 63% chance of a 50 basis point hike at the next meeting on May 4.

Back in bonds, the long end is not moving up at nearly the pace of the front end. 10s are up 4.6 bps on the day to 2.21%, which is barely 25 basis points from inversion. The message is that inflation is nearing the point where it could force the Fed into tightening the economy into a recession.

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somrat4030

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Staff member

March-21, 2022, Currency Trading analysis and daily market forecast, By forex forum.​


Currency market forecast

Price action in the Japanese Yen remains bearish as USD/JPY and cross-JPY showing little signs of pulling back. There have been several reasons as to why the Japanese Yen has received little support. Firstly, the energy shock has worsened Japan's terms of trade (as shown below), keep in mind that Japan is a net energy importer. Additionally, with global central banks either raising rates or signalling an intention to raise rates, wider rate differentials have weighed against the Japanese Yen.

As such, USD/JPY continues to track US 10yr yields in lockstep. Elsewhere, seasonal factors are also extremely bullish USD/JPY, in which the pair has had a tendency to ramp higher into the end of the month, before peaking in the first week of April. Subsequently, I remain bearish Yen for the rest of the month and will look to reassess in the first week of April, should there be signs of an overshoot.

Now while I have mentioned several factors explaining why the Japanese Yen can keep selling off in the short run. With USD/JPY comfortable above 119.00, the key barrier to watch is the 120 figure, which if breached would put me on high alert for intervention risks. This could be the catalyst to prompt USD/JPY to continue tracking its seasonal pattern and peak in the first week of April.

Source: dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert

On the other hand, EUR/USD adds to the bearish note seen on Friday, although the pair trades mostly within the familiar range on Monday.​


In case sellers push harder, the 1.1000 neighbourhood should offer decent contention. This area is also underpinned by the temporary support at the 10-day SMA at 1.0997 prior to the weekly low at 1.0900 (March 14).

The medium-term negative outlook for EUR/USD is expected to remain unchanged while below the key 200-day SMA, today at 1.1525.

Elsewhere, USD/JPY is usually the clearest trade on rising rates and it's living up to its reputation today as it climbs above Friday's high to 119.45.

The dollar has added an additional 20 pips across the board in the past few minutes as the market continues to digest hawkish talk from Powell.

The rates market is reflecting that as well, with US 5-year yields now up 18 basis points on the day to 2.32%. The Nasdaq dip buyers today are getting carried out, with the index now down 1.6%.

On the other hand, The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is making gains today despite there being no clear catalyst for the movement. The Pound (GBP) may be seeing a technical correction following a slump last week after the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate decision. Additionally, an uptick to UK bond yields may also be helping GBP to climb.

At time of writing the GBP/USD exchange is at around $1.1399, which is up roughly 0.3% from this morning's opening figures.

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Moreover, The Russian rouble steadied near 104 to the dollar on Monday and OFZ treasury bonds returned to trading, albeit in a volatile fashion, while investors kept an eye on Russia's ability to service state debt and pay the coupon on its Eurobond.​

The rouble gained 0.8% to 104 against the dollar in Moscow trade and added 0.1% to finish the day at 114.64 versus the euro.

The market was focusing on clues about Russia's state finances as the country looks to gradually resume operations on its financial markets.

On Monday, Russia was expected to pay a $65.6 million coupon to holders of its 2029 Eurobond but the finance ministry has the right to pay creditors in roubles if they had asked to receive their interest in the Russian currency.

Yields on the 2029 paper, which move inversely with their prices, stood at 43% compared with 4.5% seen a month ago before Russia started what it calls a "special operation" in Ukraine.

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somrat4030

Well-known member
Staff member

Mar-22, 2022, Latest Currency trading analysis, By forex forum.​


Currency trading daily analysis today

On Tuesday, the shared currency trims some of Monday's losses, up some 0.07%.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook​

The EUR/USD bias is downwards, though, on Tuesday, the EUR/USD jumped off from daily lows around 1.0969 and broke above the 1.1000 mark, exposing the mid-line between the top and central Pitchfork's parallel lines around 1.1080-90. Nevertheless, the downtrend remains intact unless EUR/USD bulls push the pair above the 1.1100 mark, which could pave the way for further gains.

The EUR/USD first support would be the 1.1000 mark on the downside. Breach of the latter would expose Pitchfork's central parallel-line, which also confluences near the 1.0900 mark, that once cleared would open the door towards March 7 YTD low at 1.0806.

The bearish side began to fill-in earlier this morning as prices breached the psychological level at 1.1000, with EUR/USD eventually meandering down to the next support on my chart at 1.0958. That level has since led to a bounce as the USD has pulled back, but this does keep bearish scenarios as possible given the recent lower-low combined with a possible lower-high.

Moreover, The EURJPY reached a high on February 10th at 133.14, and bottomed at 124.37 on March 7.

Since then the last 12 trading days has seen a full retracement of the 877 pip decline with the price moving briefly above the February 10 high to a high of 133.33 (range of 896 pips from the low to the high).

On the other hand, GBP/USD BREAKOUT – RESISTANCE AT PRIOR SUPPORT​

On the short side of the US Dollar I've been favoring GBP/USD of late, largely on the basis of the 1.3000 support inflection that showed last week. This is a major psychological level that has some history on the pair, and, at this point, it was the inflection point that reversed the flow in GBP/USD.

I talked about this setup at length in last week's webinar and it's continued to fill-in, with price action now testing fresh near-term highs right at a spot of prior support. This keeps the door open for bullish continuation, and support potential can now be cast towards prior short-term resistance, taken from around either 1.3167 or 1.3194.

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Elsewhere, The Russian rouble hovered around the 104 mark to the U.S. dollar most of the trading session in Moscow on Tuesday, lacking momentum for larger moves, while government OFZ bonds stabilised with the help of the central bank.​

Russia confirmed its ability to service debt by paying a coupon on its Eurobond due in 2029, marking the second successful coupon payout in the past week.

At 1453 GMT, the rouble was little changed on the day in light trade near 103.88 against the dollar and was flat at 114.50 versus the euro.

The rouble has stabilised after falling to a record low of 120 in Moscow earlier in March and even further on the interbank market to 150 as Russia took a hit from unprecedented western sanctions in response to what Russia calls "a special operation" in Ukraine that started on Feb. 24.

Before that, the rouble traded at around 80 against the dollar.

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somrat4030

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Staff member

Mar-23, 2022, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, RUB technical analysis and market latest forecast, By forex forum.​


Forex news today

The euro weakened against the dollar on Wednesday amid another sharp increase in oil and natural gas prices and while investors waited for U.S. President Joe Biden to unveil new sanctions against Russia during his trip to Europe.​


EUR/USD has subsided back to sub-1.1000 levels for a second successive session having again been unable to break above its 21-Day Moving Average which currently resides near the 1.1050 mark. At current levels in the 1.0980s, the pair is trading lower by about 0.4% on the session and eyeing a test of weekly lows posted on Tuesday in the 1.1060 area, as traders digest the latest batch of commentary from Fed policymakers. Cleveland Fed President Lorretta Mester become the latest of a growing throng of FOMC members to announce support for potential 50bps rate hikes at upcoming meetings and FX strategists think the ongoing hawkish shift in market expectations for Fed tightening in the coming year is providing ongoing support to the US dollar.

The British Pound spiked briefly higher, then slipped to session lows as hotter-than-expected UK CPI data failed to make an impression on Bank of England policy bets. The core rate of inflation rose to 5.2 percent year-on-year in February, topping baseline expectations of a more modest 5 percent result.

While this marks the fastest pace of price growth in 30 years, the data's implications seem to be adequately embedded into the markets' Bank of England policy expectations. These call for between 5-6 further rate hikes of 25bps each before the end of the year. That seems to be aggressive enough for traders, at least for now.

GBP/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS​

Prices have staged a recovery following a test of the 1.30 figure. The bulls now face a formidable challenge on approach to a dense resistance area capped at 1.3412. Breaking above that may set the stage for a test of 1.3523. Neutralizing the dominant downtrend seems to demand a further push north of the 1.36 mark, however.

On the downside, initial support looks to be anchored at 1.3161. Taking that out sees a minor inflection point at 1.3082 along the way back to challenge the key swing bottom at 1.30.

Moreover, It would take a move below the aforementioned levels to increase the bearish bias. The 50% midpoint of the same move up comes in at 1.31482. There are other old swing levels between 1.3138 1.31438, and the rising 200 hour moving average 1.31232.

Hold the support, and traders will look toward 1.32109 (swing highs from March 17 and March 21) as the upside target that would ease, the selling anxiety and give the dip buyers some comfort that the low may be in place.

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Elsewhere, The Russian rouble eased marginally on Wednesday, hovering near 104 to the dollar in Moscow as the central bank prepared to reopen trading of shares in Russia's main companies on Thursday after a nearly four-week-long hiatus.​

The Bank of Russia announced some stock market trading would resume on March 24, with 33 securities included into the benchmark IMOEX index set to be traded on Moscow Exchange for a limited period of time and with short selling banned.

Russia, which took a hit from unprecedented Western sanctions for starting what it calls "a special operation" in Ukraine, appeared to have averted default on foreign debt by making a coupon payment on a sovereign Eurobond in U.S. dollars.

Russia had been due to make a $66 million payment to bondholders on Monday on the Eurobond maturing in 2029. A bondholder said the payment had been received.

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somrat4030

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Staff member

Mar-25, 2022, Currency trading weekly analysis and daily market forecast, by forex forum.​


currency trading weekly analysis

EUR/USD has swung around the 1.10 mark for the better part of the past four days. Economists at Scotiabank note that a close below this level would stand out as a clear bearish signal for the euro.​


Support is around the 1.10 figure area followed by 1.0960/65
"A close below 1.10 for the week would stand out as a clear bearish signal for the EUR."

"The EUR's bearish trendline from mid-Feb comes in as resistance at ~1.1050, with the mid-figure area broadly set to limit upside followed by 1.1070 and the 1.11 zone." "Support is around the 1.10 figure area followed by ~1.0960/65 that has held up the EUR in three consecutive sessions; ~1.0950 and ~1.0925 follow."

Source: fxstreet.com/news

On the other hand, Ever since breaking above 116, USD/JPY has soared as Japan's terms of trade worsen due to rising raw material and commodity prices. 120 was surpassed with ease before breaching 121.85. This morning we have witnessed a pullback which could be representative of profit taking and appears to present an opportunity to re-enter the bullish trend from lower levels. The pair is coming back from oversold conditions which could signal that further room to the upside may become available.

A break and close on the daily chart above 121.85 would see 124.15 appear as resistance. Support seems quite a distance away at 120.​


Moreover, The U.S. dollar edged lower Friday, with the much-battered Japanese yen seeing some respite, at the end of a week which has seen rising expectations of a faster Federal Reserve tightening cycle.

At 4:15 AM ET (0815 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower at 98.655.

The dollar has seen buying this week as a number of Federal Reserve policymakers have lined up to signal that the central bank is prepared to take strong action to combat inflation at 40-year highs.

Elsewhere, USDCAD Snapshot: open 1.2540-44, overnight range-1.2519-1.2552, close 1.2527, WTI open $110.66, Gold open $1,956.01​

The Canadian dollar continued to grind out gains overnight. Global risk sentiment improved modestly after the Biden, EU, NATO meetings did not elevate Russia tensions further.

President Biden announced a plan that calls for the US to ship 15 billion cubic meters of Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) to Europe this year. It's a great idea on paper, but it falls short.

For starters, Europe imports 380 million cubic meters of Russian gas every day. Fifteen billion cubic meters is only 40 days supply, and to even accomplish that goal, the US needs to build LNG terminals. Currently, the US does not have the capacity to export more gas.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded narrowly in a $109.19-$112.76 band, partly due to caution ahead of the weekend.

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somrat4030

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Staff member

Mar-27, 2022, US stock news and world economical latest updates, by forex forum.​


US stock news today and world economical news

Investors hoping for a continued rally in the stock market following its first-quarter decline of as much as 12% may get just that over the next few weeks, according to a Friday note from Bank of America.​


The bank's widely-followed bull/bear indicator fell to the 2.0 "buy" level this week, which has historically led to strong three-month forward returns for the global stock market. The last time the contrarian buy signal flashed was on March 18, 2020, just a few days before the stock market bottomed amid the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The idea behind a contrarian buy or sell signal is to go against the wisdom of the crowd and do the opposite of what everyone else is doing before they ultimately follow your lead. BofA's indicator is flashing extreme bearish sentiment based on various internal market indicators, suggesting that selling in the stock market is at or near exhaustion and prices could move higher as buyers begin to regain momentum.

On the other hand, The BSE Sensex fell 233 points to 57,362, while the Nifty50 shed 70 points to 17,153 and formed bearish candle on the daily as well as weekly charts. It corrected 0.8 percent for the week after 6.4 percent rally in previous two straight weeks.​


"The Nifty50 appears to be in a consolidation mode, after two consecutive strong closes on weekly charts, as the trading range for the current week remained only 435 points," said Mazhar Mohammad, Founder & Chief Market Strategist at Chartviewindia.

As long as the Nifty doesn't go below the psychological support of 17,000, which coincides with the 200-day moving average, the probability of the resumption of upswing remains high, though it will be confirmed on a close above 17,450 levels.

Elsewhere, uel prices continued to pinch the common man as petrol and diesel rates were hiked yet again on Sunday. Petrol price was increased by 50 paise a litre while diesel rate was surged by 55 paise on March 27. In the wake of rising crude oil prices amid Russia-Ukraine war, the oil marketing companies in India, resumed the revision of fuel prices on March 22, after a hiatus of over four-and-a-half month. Since then, the petrol price went up by Rs 3.70 and diesel by Rs 3.75 per litre in just six days.

With the latest revision, a litre of petrol would cost Rs 99.11 per litre in Delhi. A litre of petrol would be available at Rs 113.88 in Mumbai, highest in any metro city. In Chennai, you would have to spend Rs 104.90 for a litre of precious auto fuel. Petrol was priced at Rs 108.53 in Kolkata. This was the fifth jump in petrol prices in the last six days.

Russia Ukraine Crisis​
Russia wants to split Ukraine into two, as happened with North and South Korea, Ukraine's military intelligence chief said on Sunday, vowing "total" guerrilla warfare to prevent a carve-up of the country.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged the West to give Ukraine tanks, planes and missiles to help fend off the Russian forces, which the Kyiv government said were increasingly targeting fuel and food depots.

US officials continued efforts to soften comments on Saturday from US President Joe Biden, who said in a fiery speech in Poland that Russian leader Vladimir Putin "cannot remain in power".

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington had no strategy of regime change in Moscow and that Biden had simply meant Putin could not be "empowered to wage war" against Ukraine or anywhere else.

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somrat4030

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Mar-30, 2022, Latest currency trading analysis and market forecast, by forex forum.​


EUR/USD trading analysis

The EUR/USD rose further during the American session and printed a fresh four week high at 1.1170. The pair is rising for the second day in a row, headed toward the highest close in a month.​


A weaker US dollar is keeping the bullish tone of EUR/USD intact. Technical factors contribute to support the upside. The pair is holding well above 1.1100 and also breaking the 1.1135 resistance area.

Moreover, In the US, the ADP employment report came in line with expectations showing an increase in private jobs of 455K. The third 4Q GDP reading showed a 6.9% expansion, below the 7% of previous estimates. The numbers did not affect the dollar. On Friday, the official employment report is due with Non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate.

On the other hand, The Bank of Japan (BoJ) entered a third day of large-scale bond buying, offering to buy more than 2 trillion yen's worth of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), over and above the unlimited purchases of 10-year JGBs at a fixed rate of 0.25%.

USD/JPY KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS​

USD/JPY quickly retreated from the 125 level and after two days in the red appears to have found the first level of support at the prior lower wick of 121.20. A decisive move lower resulting in a daily close below 121.20 opens the door to the 120 psychological level.

However, the bullish continuation theme could be supported if we are to see hotter PCE inflation and further improvements in the already strong US labor market. Aggressive US rate hike bets also favor dollar strength, particularly off recent lower levels seen in the dollar index (DXY) – a general benchmark for USD performance. A close above 121.85 leaves the door open for a retest of the 124.15 and 125 levels.

Source: dailyfx.com/forex

Elsewhere, The AUDUSD is trading in a fairly narrow trading range of 33 pips versus 76 PIP average over the last 22 trading days (around month trading).​

The confined range is largely a result of technical levels above and below that have buyers and sellers leaning on tests.


On the topside, the highs from Friday and Monday stalled the pair between 0.7535 and 0.75394. The high price today has reached 0.75349.

On the downside there have been a number of test of its 100 hour moving average currently at 0.7507. The current price is trading at 0.7514

Buyers and sellers are battling it out near the highs from 2022. They are likely looking for the next shove in one direction or the other. In the meantime, the battle rages with no winner one way or the other in trading today.

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On the other hand, XAG/USD underpinned by falling buck/US yields, but not able to reclaim $25.00 yet.

Even though the latest batch of US data (strong ADP and robust Q4 GDP and Core PCE numbers), alongside fresh hawkish commentary from Fed policymakers has been interpreted as solidifying expectations for a 50bps rate hike from the bank in May, the US dollar continues to come under intense selling pressure, supporting the precious metal complex. US yields also continue to ease back from recent highs, with the US-10 year on Wednesday falling back under the 2.40% mark, unwinding some of the recent upwards pressure on the "opportunity cost" of holding non-yielding assets like precious metals.

Spot silver (XAG/USD) prices are thus trading higher by about 0.75% on the day, though have not been able to mount a lasting push to the north of the $25.00 per troy ounce level. Still, at current levels in the $24.90s, XAG/USD is trading with gains of more than 4.0% versus Tuesday's lows just under $24.00. Traders at the time piled in to buy silver as it tested its 200-Day Moving Average at $23.96. Successful defense of support in the key $24.00 area will have many bulls eyeing a retest of last week's highs in the $25.80s.

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April-04, 2022, Currency market analysis and forecast, by forex forum.​


US dollar news


The EURUSD is trading to a new session low and in the process is testing the next swing area between 1.09576 and 1.09675 (see earlier post here). There is some cause for pause against the area. However, a move below that level will target the low from last week at 1.0944.​


The move to the downside today got a shove below the 200 hour MA (green line), and has also moved below the 50% of the range since the March low at 1.0994. An upward sloping trend line on the hourly chart was also broken in the downward move.

Moreover, The US dollar is robust at the start of the week, with the DXY higher on the day so far by nearly 0.5% and for three straight sessions. US yields are firmer due to the narrative surrounding the Federal reserve and as civilian killings in north Ukraine keep the safe-haven appeal alive in financial markets. In turn, the euro is on the backfoot and weighed also by the prospect of increased sanctions.

At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading lower by 0.7% and some change after falling from a high of 1.1054 to a low of 1.0960. The euro is trapped between mixed sentiment surrounding the path of the European Central bank, Ukraine crisis risks to the economy and runaway inflation in the US which, for now at least, is supporting demand for the greenback.

On the other hand, AUD/USD reversed course after taking out the 2021 low (0.6993) in January.

The exchange rate traded above the 50-Week SMA for the first time since July after clearing the yearly opening range in March. AUD/USD may continue to retrace the decline from last year as the exchange rate is on the cusp of testing the October high (0.7556), but the diverging paths for monetary policy may curb the bullish price action. The Federal Reserve looks to implement a series of rate hikes over the coming months, while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains in no rush to switch gears.

As a result, the advance from the yearly low (0.6968) may turn out to be a correction as the 50-Week SMA continues to reflect a negative slope. The exchange rate may attempt to further retrace the decline from the 2021 high (0.8007), if it manages to penetrate the former support zone around the October high (0.7556).

Elsewhere, USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook​

The USD/CHF bias is neutral-upwards. Its daily chart depicts a subsequent series of higher highs/lows since the beginning of 2022. March 31 dip towards the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 0.9209 was rejected, forming a "spinning top" candlestick, meaning failure to commit between buyers/sellers.

Upwards, the USD/CHF first resistance would be 0.9280. Once cleared, a test of February's ten high at 0.929600 is on the cards, immediately followed by 0.9300. A decisive break would open the door toward January 31 daily high at 0.9343.

On the downside, the USD/CHF first support would be the 50-DMA at 0.9258, followed by April 1 daily low at 0.9215, and then the 200-DMA at 0.9209.

On the other hand, Moscow has implemented two things. First, they now demand the sale of natural gas to unfriendly countries in the form of Ruble (USDRUB) . Thus, if the U.S. and its allies want to buy natural gas from Russia now, they must pay in Ruble. Second, Moscow offers to buy Gold domestically at a fixed price of 5000 rubles per gram. The Bank of Russia therefore has linked Ruble to Gold (XAUUSD) . Since Gold also trades in US Dollars, this effectively sets a floor price for the ruble in terms of US Dollars.

Since the time that Bank of Russia made this fixed price announcement, the ruble has strengthened from 100 to the pre-war level around 80 to the US Dollar. We can do the simple calculation. Gold is currently trading at $1923 / troy ounce which is around $62 / gram. With Bank of Russia pegging 5000 rubles to 1 gram of Gold, this suggests a USD/RUB rate of 5000/62 = 80.5. If the rate deviates from this too much, market and arbitrage traders will get into action to drive the exchange rate and/or Gold price.

So Gold's price in a way will put a floor to the ruble. But similarly, Ruble will also put a floor to Gold. 5000 rubles / gram with an exchange rate of USDRUB of 80.5 means a gold price around $1930/ troy ounce. One can make a case that Ruble may actually strengthen further. The reason is because as Russia demands unfriendly countries to pay with Ruble for its commodities purchase, demand for Ruble can increase.

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April-05, 2022, Currency trading technical analysis and daily market forecast, By forex forum.​


At 161.79, GBP/JPY is nearly 0.5% at the time of writing, after travelling from a low of 160.49 to reach a high of 161.97. The yen is under pressure as US yields and the dollar climb. Yields took off after US Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard put the focus back on the possibility of aggressive monetary policy tightening ahead of tomorrow's minutes of the prior Fed meeting.

Brainard said she expects rapid reductions to the Fed's balance sheet alongside methodical increases to the benchmark rate. This has sprung life into the US dollar and the yen is bearing the brunt of it.

''The Bank of England and market economists have warned that UK inflation could peak at 8% in the coming months and, due to the impact of the Russia/Ukraine conflict, both energy prices and headline inflation may remain elevated for longer, analysts at Rabobank said.

On the other hand, EUR/USD FACES INTENSIFYING PRESSURE​

As proposed sanctions and a more hawkish Fed continue to weigh on the Euro, EUR/USD continues to slide towards the March low, holding as support at 1.085.

With Fed officials suggesting that they could start reducing the balance sheet as early as May, proposed sanctions and an optimistic ISM report have placed further pressure on EUR/USD which remains well-below the 50-day MA (moving average).

As long as the 1.100 mark holds as resistance, the 1.085 remains key with a break below bringing the April 2020 low into play at 1.0756.

Elsewhere, The USD/JPY advances for the third straight day, despite yen-related remarks by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kuroda, who stated that "forex moves are somewhat rapid," spurring a 30-pip drop in the pair, though recovered of late on broad US dollar strength. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 123.58.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook.​

The USD/JPY keeps trending higher. However, it is worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 73.90 at overbought conditions reacted with less force to the upside on the rally towards current prices, meaning that the USD/JPY might be subject to a mean reversion move.

However, the uptrend remains intact unless the USD/JPY falls below 121.27. That said, the USD/JPY first resistance would be 124.00. A breach of the latte would expose solid supply zones, like 124.30, followed by the YTD high at 125.10.

Moreover, AUD/USD breakout above the orange box area which is extremely bullish.​

The pair has confirmed a new higher swing high and continuation of the bullish trend. However, the pair relinquish half of its gain and currently attempting to close the day above the orange box area. If the pair close below the orange box area instead then it might start another bearish correction to target the bottom of the orange box area.

Today critical levels to watch:

Support: 0.7550, 0.7500, 0.7450

Resistance: 0.7640, 0.7690

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somrat4030

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April- 06, 2022, Daily currency trading analysis and latest market forecast, By forex forum.​


forex trading daily analysis today

The USD/JPY advances in the North American session amid a risk-off market mood, courtesy of Fed speaking, the continuation of the Russian-Ukraine war, and China’s economy about to slow, as reported by Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which fell below the expansion levels. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 123.87.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook​

The USD/JPY is upward biased. The daily moving averages (DMAs) reside well below the spot price and confirm the bias. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 74.65 is well within the overbought area, suggesting that caution is warranted.

That said, the USD/JPY first resistance level would be 124.00. A breach of the latter would expose the YTD high at 125.10, followed by June 2015 swing high at 125.85, followed by April 2001 daily high at 126.85, and then February 2002 pivot high at 135.02.

Source: fxstreet.com/news/

On the other hand, The Euro suffered punishing losses in the first quarter of 2022. The currency is on pace to shed almost 3 percent against an average of its major counterparts, marking the worst three-month performance in 7 years. Taken together with losses in the second half of last year, the Euro is poised to give up nearly 4.5 percent over the course of nine months.

MOREOVER, ECB INTEREST RATE OUTLOOK LIKELY TO LIMIT EURO UPSIDE​

The Euro may struggle to sustain any such gains however, held back by an ECB that is not expected to follow its global peers down the road of brisk interest rate hikes aimed at soaring inflation. Market pricing envisions target interest rates near 2 percent in the US, Canada and New Zealand by year-end. Australia and the UK are priced near 1.5 percent.

By contrast, a series of five 10bps rate hikes over the course of 2021 is expected to bring the ECB’s deposit rate from its current -0.5 percent setting back to zero. That leaves the single currency at a distinct yield disadvantage. If some Ukraine-inspired boost lifts the Euro relatively early in the second quarter, its impact may already fizzle by the time Q3 is ready to begin.

Elsewhere, The dollar was flat to slightly higher on Wednesday, retreating from sharp gains the previous session following hawkish comments from one of the Federal Reserve's top officials, as investors looked to the release of the U.S. central bank's minutes of its last monetary policy meeting.

The dollar index soared to a nearly two-year high on Tuesday after Fed Governor Lael Brainard, usually a more dovish policymaker, said she expected a combination of rate increases and a rapid balance sheet runoff to bring U.S. monetary policy to a "more neutral position" later this year. Further tightening would follow as needed, she added.

In mid-morning trading, the dollar index, which measures the greenback's value against six major currencies, eased to 99.43, slightly down on the day. On Tuesday, the index touched its highest since May 2020 at 99.759.

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On the other hand, GBP was the strongest currency immediately after the release of the Federal Open Market Committee minutes, popping to 1.3107 before dropping to post minutes lows of 1.3056 when the US dollar finally broke to the upside.

DXY, an index that measures the greenback vs a basket of six rival currencies, has run to the highest level for 2022 at 99.769 following the minutes that showed that the Federal Reserve officials expressed anxiety about inflation. The members have finalized plans to shrink bond holdings in an aggressive effort to curb rising prices. The Fed is preparing to shrink the $9tn balance sheet at a pace of roughly $95bn a month.

"All options reviewed by policymakers featured a more rapid pace of balance sheet runoff than in the 2017–19 episode," the minutes said.

Many officials say one or more 50bps rate hikes may be warranted and many members sought a 50bps March hike if there was not a Ukraine war.

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April-08, 2022, Daily currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


Russian foreign exchange reserves rose for the week ending April 1, but reserves remain below established levels prior to the country's invasion of Ukraine. The Bank of Russia valued FX reserves and gold at 606.5 billion, an increase on the previous week's reading of $604.4 billion. In the week prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, foreign exchange reserves totaled roughly $643 billion.

The figures show a stark decline in reserves as the West has hit Russia with tough sanctions over the last few weeks. Russia lost access to nearly half of its reserves, but the country's central bank (CBR) has been able to halt the slide in the ruble. The CBR elected to double it's key interest rate to 20% in late February, while also imposing strict capital controls on domestic companies and citizens. These controls have stabilized the ruble, which has returned to pre-invasion levels.

On the other hand, GBP/USD is performing on the bid on Thursday afternoon US session, trying to resurface from the recent lows around 1.3050 following a strong move in the greenback. Meanwhile, however, the pair remains vulnerable to further losses from a longer-term perspective.​


Moreover, GBP/JPY’s steady upside grind that has been in motion for the whole week so far has continued on Thursday, with the pair now on course to post a fifth successive daily gain. Global yields continue to move higher, with notable breaks higher seen in US yields on Thursday against the backdrop of hawkish commentary from Fed policymakers all week, plus recent Fed and ECB minutes releases, both of which were hawkish.

This is not a good environment for the highly rate differential sensitive Japanese yen, which is at present suffering from the fact that the BoJ looks intent on maintaining its Yield Curve Control policy (keeping 10-year yields within 25 bps of zero). As global yields rise, this makes holding the yen less attractive.

But GBP/JPY’s on the week gains aren’t that impressive at just 0.8% at the time of writing. The pair continues to struggle to push to the north of the 162.00 level, which looks like it might be in the early stages of forming a double top (on the four-hour candlesticks).

Elsewhere, Japanese Yen sellers are back on the prowl as the currency has started to sink again on the Q2 open. As looked at a week ago, those aggressive trends of Yen weakness had finally started to pull back, helped along by a major currency pair that ran into a significant area of long-term resistance.

A price swing at 121.41 helped to cauterize the low, and another swing at 122.41 served as resistance-turned-support as buyers pushed back up to the bigger zone of long-term resistance. And now, from a shorter-term basis, we can see where buyers are nearing a re-test of that significant spot on the chart starting around the 124.15 area after the pair has added a little more than 250 pips from that support test a week ago.

On the other hand, The U.S. dollar climbed to nearly two-year highs on Thursday, as investors digested hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, but wondered whether the currency's value already reflected further tightening moves.​


The dollar index hit 99.823 on Thursday, the highest since late May 2020. It was last up 0.2% at 99.810.

"With traders pricing in more than 225 basis points of interest rate hikes over the rest of this year, there's certainly more risk of the Fed failing to meet expectations than exceed them," said Matthew Weller, global head of research at FOREX.com and City Index.

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April-13, 2022, Currency trading technical analysis and market forecast, by forex forum.​


Currency market analysis

The EUR/USD rebounded sharply during the last hours and climbed from 1.0820 to 1.0878, reaching a fresh daily high. The move higher took place amid a decline of the US dollar across the board. The greenback lost momentum as US yields turned to the downside.

The US 10-year yield fell from 2.75 to 2.65%, reaching the lowest level since Friday, while the 30-year dropped from the multi-year high at 2.87% to 2.76%. The recovery in Treasuries weighed on the greenback.

On the othe hand, Overnight, USD/JPY shot above the 2015 high at 12585, up to a high so far of 12631.

This put it at its best levels since early 2002. It is currently flirting with losing that level, and on that if we do see a reversal after breaking out to a 20-year high it could catch a lot of market participants wrong-footed.

We obviously got here so fast through a lot of buying, so even without looking at various sentiment indicators one can conclude a lot of folks are long. Looking at one futures indicator, though, DSI (Daily Sentiment Index) shows over 90% have a long bias.

A fake-out breakout above the 2015 high and failure could send USD/JPY into pullback mode. What I will be watching here is for a weekly closing print that’s not only below the 2015 high, but the emphatic spike-high reversal week ending on April 1. That would require a weekly close below 12510.

Elsewhere, The GBPUSD has broken to a new session high and in the process has moved above its 100 hour moving average at 1.30285.​


That break higher comes after the pair moved to the lowest level since November 6 earlier in the day after taking out the swing low from April 8 at 1.29818. The low price reached 1.2971 before rotating back to the upside.

Helping the technical view in the near term is that the last swing low - before the recent move to the upside over the last few hours - could only get to 1.29899 before the push back higher. With the price back above the 100 day moving average, the buyers are taking another shot at the upside.

So this is the third shot in the last five trading days. Technically, you have to respect the break (even though the last two breaks failed). As a result the 1.30285 is close risk for buyers with work to do on the topside. Getting above a swing area between 1.30419 and 1.3049 is the next target.

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Moreover, USDCAD falls below its 100 hour moving average The USDCAD has moved back below its 200 day MA at 1.2622 and its 100 hour moving average at 1.2611. The current price is trading at 1.2602. The next target comes out the swing area between 1.2588 and 1.25919. Will below those levels and traders would start to look toward the rising 200 hour moving average at 1.2556. With the price testing the 100 hour moving average yesterday and briefly breaking below the level, traders will now use the same tactic on the break today. Stay below the 100 hour moving average and the sellers are in control. Move back above and we could see a bounce back higher with focus back on the 200 day moving average as the next step. If For now, close risk at the 100 hour moving average at 1.2611.The Macklem press conference has just ended.

Can the downside momentum continue after his completion?

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April-14, 2022, Currency trading technical analysis and forex market latest analysis, By forex forum.​


Currency trading analysis, april-14

GBP/JPY hit fresh more than six-year highs on Thursday, eclipsing Wednesday’s 164.84 peak by about one pip. However, despite a sharp rise in US, UK and global developed market bond yields (apart from in Japan), the pair was not able to muster a convincing bullish break towards 165.00. Rather, the pair on Thursday slipped back to test the 164.00 level once again and at current levels in the 164.40s, trades with losses of about 0.2% on the day.

The lack of bullish momentum could have something to do with the risk-off tone to US equity market trade – typically, GBP/JPY is correlated to other risk assets like US stocks. It could have something to do with the fact that, since the start of the month, GBP/JPY has already put in a solid nearly 3.0% rally from the sub-160.00 levels, and was thus due some profit-taking/consolidation.

On the other hand, US TREASURIES LOWER, US AND UK INFLATION HIGHER​

On Tuesday and Wednesday we saw US and UK headline measures of inflation (inclusive of fuel and food which tend to exhibit the most volatile price changes) which both beat expectations. Upward surprises in inflation data seems to be the norm but the market took more notice of the fact that US core inflation (excluding food and fuel) data rose less than expected. A lower core inflation reading suggests that maybe inflation isn’t as widespread throughout the economy as previously observed and that we could start to see a slow down in general price increases.

GBP/USD: KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS

Sterling wasted no time surpassing 1.3080 which leaves 1.3190 as the next level of resistance as this level temporarily capped prices in March. As mentioned earlier, the real test for the pound is that zone of resistance around 1.3265 which coincided with the mid-point of the descending channel and effectively repelled the GBP/USD advance in March.

The fairly large option expiry later today could see prices head lower. In that case, 1.3080 returns as support followed by the psychological level of 1.3000.

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Elsewhere, Short-dated euro zone bond yields and the single currency fell on Thursday as traders pared back rate hike bets after the European Central Bank refrained from switching to a more hawkish stance.​


Bond yields have marched higher in recent weeks as investors bet the ECB will raise rates sooner rather than later to curb euro zone inflation which, at 7.5%, is well above the bank's 2% target.

But the ECB concluded its latest meeting with cautious steps to unwind support and avoiding any firm pledge beyond the end of bond buys it had already laid out in March.

The lack of commitment pushed traders to trim rate hike bets. Money market futures moved to price in just over 60 bps worth of ECB hikes by December, versus the earlier 70 bps.

The single European currency fell to $1.0758 EUR=EBS, the lowest level since April 2020. It was last down 1.1% at $1.0775.

Lagarde said there was no clear timeframe for when rates would start to rise, adding it could be weeks or even several months after the end of stimulus.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/CHF rise above 0.9400 would open the door for further gains, though to firmly cement the previously-mentioned, the USD/CHF needs a daily close above the 0.9400 mark.

That said, the USD/CHF first resistance would be March’s 15 and 16 cycle highs, each at 0.9431 and 0.9460. A decisive break of that area would expose 0.9500, followed by the 200-week simple moving average (W-SMA) at 0.9522.

On the flip side, the USD/CHF first support would be 0.9400. Once cleared, the pair’s next demand zone would be March 28, cycle high at 0.9381, followed by the 0.9350 mark.

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April-15, 2022, Daily currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


currency trading technical analysis

On Friday, the EUR/USD slides amidst a dull trading session due to Easter Friday. The common currency is trading at 1.0808, down some 0.18%, at the time of writing.​


The euro fall continues after the European Central Bank (ECB) failed to deliver a hawkish tilt on Thursday’s monetary policy decision, which could have lifted the shared currency against its counterparts. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, a gauge of the greenback’s value vs. a basket of six currencies, is almost flat, though up 0.03%, at 100.507.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The EUR/USD weekly chart depicts that the downtrend might extend further, though a close below 1.0806 might open the door towards March 2020 lows at 1.0636. That said, the EUR/USD first support would be 1.0757. A breach of the latter would expose April 2020 cycle low at 1.0727, followed by the 1.0636 aforementioned.

Source: fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd

On the other hand, USDJPY trades to the highest level since 2002 The USDJPY is trading higher once again today and in the process has blown through the June 2015 high at 125.86. That puts the price at the highest level since May 2002 nearly 20 years ago (see weekly chart above). My USDJPY charts are running out of history.

I have the May 6 week swing high up at 128.920 and that's it. There remains some room between the current price at 126.46 and that 128.92 high, but not much. Driving the move higher is central bank rate policy. The Fed is intent on a series of tightenings to get back to the neutral rate (at least) at around 2.50%. The BOJ is happy to keep the status quo and in fact are looking to limit the moves in their yields via purchases.

That dynamic has led to a surge in yield spreads between the US and Japan. Looking at the 10 year yield spread, the spread between US 10 year yields and Japan 10 year yields has widened to over 250 basis points from about 153 basis points on March 7. Note the yield spread basing against its 100 day moving average back in early March before moving to the upside. The US 10 year to Japan 10 year yield spread Over the same period, the USDJPY has moved from around 114.82 to the high today of 126.68 or 1186 pips (10.32%). Also note how the USDJPY based against its 100 day moving average back in early March before moving to the upside.

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GBP/USD analysis​


Elsewhere, Early during yesterday’s session, we saw it rally from the 1.3 range to the high of 1.314. Still unable to consolidate at that level, it experienced a retraction, falling back to the 1.305 level where it was last found trading.

Today we can expect a move towards the 1.314 closest overhead resistance due to the spike in positive momentum. However, if it doesn’t manage to hold on to the current level, we could expect a move close to the 1.296 support level.

On the other hand, The USD/CAD pair plunged after the BOC but it has failed to stay in the sellers' territory.

The price erased the short-term losses and now it seems determined to come back to its former highs. It's traded at 1.2611 and it could climb higher if the Dollar Index resumes its growth after better than expected US data reported earlier. USD/CAD retreated a little but the bulls took the lead again after the US Industrial Production rose by 0.9% beating the 0.4% expected, Capacity Utilization Rate came in at 78.3% exceeding 77.88% estimates, while the Empire State Manufacturing Index was reported at 24.6 points above 0.9 points forecasts.

USD/CAD Forecast!

After its minor retreat, USD/CAD could climb higher towards the 1.2650 key level. As long as it stays above the median line (ML), the pair could be attracted by the upper median line (UML). The 38.2% retest was seen as a potential long opportunity. Only a valid breakdown below 1.2575 could invalidate an upside continuation.

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April-18, 2022, Currency trading analysis and market forecast, by forex forum.​


currency trading analysis april-18, 2022

USD/JPY has climbed steadily since early 2021. That uptrend stemmed from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the 1998 to 2011 move. More recently, prices pierced above the 61.8% level. The 2015 high at 125.85 is now within striking distance. On the monthly timeframe, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is oriented firmly higher within overbought territory, while the MACD oscillator trends higher. Prices may hit that 2015 high, less than 4% away from current prices, in the coming months.

Moreover, the 2002 peak would shift into focus if the Yen weakened enough for USD/JPY to dispatch the 2015 high. The 130 psychological level and the 78.6% Fib level would likely be the major resistance levels before prices would attack 135.16, which is only around 7.5% higher. While that would constitute a rather significant move, given the recent pace, it may not be off the table.

On the other hand, GBP/JPY has spent the majority of Monday’s quiet, holiday-thinned trading session close to more than six-year highs around the 165.00 level, with commentary from Japan’s Finance Minister and the BoJ Governor during Asia Pacific hours failing to support the yen. Neither gave the market much to go on regarding potential policymaker intervention to strengthen the yen, suggesting that GBP/JPY’s recent more than 9.0% rally from March lows may yet have legs to run.

Indeed, while the BoE is getting increasingly worried about weak UK growth as a result of the cost-of-living squeeze, they still intend to lift interest rates higher in the coming months.

Moreover, The EUR/USD traded below Friday’s low and will probably try and rally today.​

Bears broke below the March 7 low last Thursday (April 14). However, the bears failed to close below March 7.
Bulls will likely give up here soon, and the market will begin to go sideways to up.
Bulls will buy here, betting that the market will not fall below the April 14 low and will form a micro double bottom with a bull bar closing on its high.
Bulls also have a credible buy signal bar with the April 13 high, so the market will probably have to get back to it. This is because bulls likely bought April 13 high and were willing to buy below the bar as well, confident they could exit back at the April 13 high.

Elsewhere, Last week, the Bank of Canada (BOC) hiked key interest rates by 50bps to 1%, as expected. It was the largest increase in over 20 years and the highest level for interest rates since before the pandemic began in March 2020. In addition, the central bank said it would stop reinvesting the proceeds of its maturing bond holdings, and therefore, beginning the process of reducing its balance sheet.

This week Canada releases CPI. Did the BOC make the right call by hiking 50bps?

Traders will be watching as the data is released on Wednesday. Expectations are for headline CPI to have risen to 6.1% YoY vs 5.7% YoY in February. Core CPI is expected to have risen to 5% YoY vs 4.8% YoY in February. Canada will also release Retail Sales data for February this week. Although the data may be a bit stale, traders will be watching to see if rising inflation affected the Canadian consumer. Expectations for the headline print are only 0.2% MoM vs 3.2% MoM in January. Retail Sales Ex-Autos expectations are just as poor at 0.2% MoM vs 2.5% MoM in January.

USD/CAD has been trading in a range between 1.2454 and 1.2965 since mid-November 2021. On April 5th, price formed a hammer on the daily timeframe, in which price opened near 1.2480, made a false breakdown below the range to a low of 1.2402, and bounced to close near the open.

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On the other hand, The GBPUSD waffled up and down in a narrow trading range on Good Friday. That dynamic helped to converged the rising 100 hour moving average with the falling 200 hour moving average (blue and green lines in the chart above). Those two moving averages are straddling the 1.3053 level currently.

The price in the first few hours of trading today, saw the GBPUSD move above and below those moving averages. However the price fell below the levels earlier in the day, and have stayed below since that break.

Moreover, NZD/USD Vulnerable while under 0.6750
The NZD/USD is trading at 0.6719, the lowest level in seven weeks. The kiwi failed to recover the 0.6750 area and weakened again during the American session as US yields turn again to the upside.

The US 10-year yield stands at 2.85% and the 30-year at 2.96%, the highest level since April 2019. The DXY is up 0.25%, at 100.75, testing the 2022 top. The stronger US dollar weighs on NZD/USD, unable to benefit from higher commodity prices.

The current week is light in terms of economic data, attention will likely continue on Ukraine and Federal Reserve and RBNZ expectations.

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somrat4030

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Staff member

April - 21, 2022, Currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


Daily currency trading analysis

Last week, EUR/USD broke below last month’s low of 1.0806 and made a new 2-year low at 1.0758, which may now provide support.​


The early 2020 lows of 1.0727 and 1.0638 lie just below there and might also be support.

This week, EUR/USD has rallied back above the 10-day simple moving average (SMA) and this could indicate that short-term bearish momentum is stalling for now.

The 21-, 34-, 55, 100- and 200-day SMAs all lie above the price and have negative gradients. This may denote medium and bearish momentum is still intact for now.

The 21-, 34- and 100-day SMAs currently align near potential resistance levels at 1.0924, 1.0945 and 1.1185 respectively, which might add significance to these levels.

A descending trend line currently intersects at 1.1050 and the 55-day SMA is just above there at 1.1077. Those levels could offer a resistance zone.

Source: dailyfx.com/forex/technical

On the other hand, USD/JPY to settle at lower levels later in the year

“In view of the pressure on Japan’s trade and current accounts positions, speculation is building that the value of the currency pair may remain higher for longer.”

“We have raised our one-month forecast for USD/JPY to 128 from 125.”

“We see potential for the currency pair to settle at lower levels later in the year, though this will be dependent on expectations regarding the path of US economic growth medium-term and the impact that has on the level of US treasury yields.”

Elsewhere, The dollar edged up on Thursday, supported by expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve monetary tightening, but it was well off the previous day's peaks amid nervousness about what G7 might say about its rapid appreciation.

The greenback firmed 0.34% to 128.305 yen, after soaring to a two-decade high of 129.430 on Wednesday as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) stepped in to the bond market for the third time in three months to defend its zero-percent yield target, drawing a stark contrast with the Fed's increasingly hawkish posture.

Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Thursday in Washington D.C. that he had explained the yen's "somewhat rapid" declines to his Group of Seven counterparts, but did not comment on how they reacted.

He has warned in recent days about the potential damage to the Japanese economy from a weakening currency.

Moreover, The USD/CHF pair has been corrected to 0.9495 after a sharp upside rally right from the first tick in early Tokyo.

The pair have remained in positive territory since the first trading session of April amid a spree of hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers.

A divergence in the ideology of the Fed and SNB (Swiss National Bank) is continuously underpinning the Swiss franc against the mighty greenback. Where SNB is keeping its policy rates at -0.75% despite the 13-year high inflation print at 2.2% due to higher commodity prices, the Fed is focusing on shrinking the liquidity from the market at a higher pace.

GBP/USD Forecast

The GBP/USD pair has gone nowhere in the past few days. It has risen to a high of 1.3055, which was slightly above last week’s low of 1.2971. The pair is hovering along the 25-period and 50-period moving averages while the MACD has moved slightly above the neutral level. It is also below the descending trendline shown in black.

Therefore, the pair will likely resume the bearish trend as sellers target the horizontal line shown in purple at 1.300.

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somrat4030

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Staff member

April-25, 2022, Daily currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


daily market analysis

The Euro is falling further against the US dollar and is close to giving back all of the 17 big-figure rally seen between March 2020 and January 2021. The next level of support for the pair sits at 1.0636 and this may hold in the short term, especially as Euro interest rate expectations continue to grow. While the ECB is still behind the Fed, any indication that the European Central Bank will tighten monetary conditions further will help stem any move lower, at least in the short term.

Technical analysis:
EUR/USD has recovered modestly from two-year lows set at the beginning of the week. Euro needs to stabilize above 1.0760 for sellers to take a break.

1.0760 aligns as a key resistance in the near-term
“1.0760 (former support, static level) aligns as the first hurdle. In case the pair rises above that level and starts using it as support, it could extend its correction toward 1.08 (psychological level) and 1.0820 (20-period SMA, 50-period SMA).”

Source: fxstreet.com/news/

Moreover, The Pound (GBP) fell sharply on Friday after UK retail sales contracted by 1.4% in March, much worse than the expected 0.3% contraction.​


This, along with a larger-than-forecast drop in the UK services PMI, raised concerns about the UK’s cost-of-living crisis. The squeeze on incomes now seems to be having a tangible impact on the UK economy.

Some new data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) may affect the Pound later this morning. In particular, the CBI’s quarterly business confidence index could cause headwinds. Consensus estimates see the gauge slumping to its worst level since the Covid pandemic first hit.

Technical analysis:
Retail trader data show 82.09% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 4.58 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.01% lower than yesterday and 19.04% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.54% higher than yesterday and 29.91% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed GBP/USD trading bias.

The main goal for today is a breakthrough of the nearest support of 1.2749, since below this level there are unlikely to be those willing to buy the pound immediately, especially after Bailey's recent statements and fundamental reports. A breakthrough and a reverse test of this range from the bottom up creates a sell signal that will quickly push GBP/USD into the area of the lows: 1.2689 and 1.2645, where I recommend taking profits.

The 1.2585 area will be the next target, but it is unlikely to be possible to reach it at the beginning of the week. In case GBP/USD grows, the bears will try to do everything to prevent an exit above the resistance of 1.2807. Forming a false breakout there will be an excellent sell signal in order to continue the bear market. If traders are not active in the 1.2807 area, the bulls will continue to push the pair up. Then I advise you to postpone short positions until the next major resistance of 1.2856, where the moving averages are playing on the bears' side. I also advise you to open short positions there only in case of a false breakout. It is possible to sell GBP/USD immediately for a rebound from a high like 1.2906, counting on the pair's rebound down by 30-35 points within the day.

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On the other hand, The U.S. dollar climbed to a two-year high versus its rivals on Monday and was on track for its single biggest daily gain in more than six weeks as a wave of risk aversion swept through global markets, boosting the greenback's safe haven appeal.​


Against a basket of its rivals, the dollar gained 0.6% in early London trading to 101.62, a level it last tested in March 2020 and on track for its biggest daily rise since March 11.

"The week is starting with a firmly negative tone in global markets, which are discounting a combination of a) many central banks accelerating their tightening plans, b) Russia and Ukraine moving further away from a diplomatic solution, c) China's Covid crisis which is forcing a re-rating of growth expectations in the region," ING strategists said in a note.

The euro's tiny gains after news of French President Emmanuel Macron's comfortable election victory over far-right rival Marine Le Pen quickly dissipated, with the single currency down 0.8% at $1.0729.

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