Forex Trading And Currency Trading Analysis And ForeCast
The pound faces potentially choppy 48 hours with the release of employment on Tuesday and CPI on Wednesday. In the view of economists at Société Générale, the GBP has the chance to trim losses this week if the data beats expectations.
Short-term bounce expected on upbeat UK data
"Strong data could offer cable a chance to claw back losses towards 1.35 and EUR/GBP back off the 200-day moving average (0.8580) and attempt a reversal back below 0.8500."
"GBP/USD – Support 1.3385, resistance 1.3465."
Moreover, GBP/USD has been attempting to regain lost ground of late, with the price on the rise on Thursday and Friday.
However, the bearish trend does remain intact unless the price pushes up through the $1.3607 swing-high. While the relatively shallow nature of this latest rally brings the potential for further upside here, a break back below 80 on the stochastic would bring risk of another bearish turn for this pair.
On the other hand, EUR/GBP traders will need to be alert over the next few days and weeks with a combination of hard data, BoE rate hike expectations, and rising covid cases in Europe will give further clues to the direction of the pair in the short term. In addition, ongoing talks between the EU and UK over the Northern Ireland protocol, and the real risk that the UK may trigger article 16, will add extra volatility into EUR/GBP.
The latest CME Bank of England rate expectations show a 100% probability that UK interest rates will be raised at the December 16 meeting. The UK central bank disappointed the market at the last MPC meeting by keeping rates unchanged despite policymakers noting that that price pressures could hit 5% next year, a level not seen in nearly a decade.
EURGBP Traders Analysis:Retailer data show 55.94% of traders are net long and the ratio of long to short traders is 1.27: 1. The number of net long traders is 3.63% higher than yesterday, 14.66% higher than last week, but the number of traders is net short 6.11% higher than yesterday and 7.73% lower than last week.
We usually disagree with the sentiment of the crowd, and the fact that traders are netlong suggests EUR /.GBP Prices may continue to fall.
Positioning isn't net-long since yesterday, but it's been net-long since last week.The combination of current emotions and recent changes gives us more Mixed EUR / GBP trading bias.
On The other hand, The dollar was closed at Rs175.73 on Friday, the State Bank said.
On Sunday, Adviser to Prime Minister on Finance, Shaukat Tarin had held 'satta mafia' involved in the depreciation of the rupee as the greenback being smuggled to Afghanistan. He announced that the government was going to tighten the noose around the mafia.
The local currency started recovering from its steep fall against the US dollar on Oct 27, after the government announced Saudi Arabia's financial support of up to $4.2 billion, raising the central bank's foreign exchange reserves and boosting the sentiments of the currency market.
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