JamesThatcher
Well-known member
What does the data mean to the market?
The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Fornit), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.
Historic deviations and their outcome
July 27 2021 A small +0.1 deviation gave a nice two minute move on USDHUF and EURHUF, providing 150 pips total move. So if you have a good broker with tight spreads, there were pips available from this event.
Check out the price action here:
June 23rd 2020 We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate, which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!
Check out the price action here:
I will use forecasts of:
Base Rate Announcement 1.5
Today's trade plan
Today we have the following forecast ranges.
High Forecast = 1.50
Low Forecast = 1.20
Official Estimate = 1.5
Average = 1.48
Previous intetest rate = 1.2
If we don't see a change to the interest rate and it remains at 1.2%, a-0.3% deviation from the forecast will take a sell. I would expect to see a 300 pip move or more.
If we see a hike to the interest rate to 1.7% or more. I will take a buy and expect to see a 200 pip move.
Tradable pairs
EURHUF
USDHUF
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Fornit), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.
Historic deviations and their outcome
July 27 2021 A small +0.1 deviation gave a nice two minute move on USDHUF and EURHUF, providing 150 pips total move. So if you have a good broker with tight spreads, there were pips available from this event.
Check out the price action here:
HU Interest Rate Decision 2021-07-27 12:00:00.0
HU Interest Rate Decision 2021-07-27 12:00:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
June 23rd 2020 We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate, which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!
Check out the price action here:
HU Interest Rate Decision 2020-06-23 12:00:00.0
HU Interest Rate Decision 2020-06-23 12:00:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
I will use forecasts of:
Base Rate Announcement 1.5
Today's trade plan
Today we have the following forecast ranges.
High Forecast = 1.50
Low Forecast = 1.20
Official Estimate = 1.5
Average = 1.48
Previous intetest rate = 1.2
If we don't see a change to the interest rate and it remains at 1.2%, a-0.3% deviation from the forecast will take a sell. I would expect to see a 300 pip move or more.
If we see a hike to the interest rate to 1.7% or more. I will take a buy and expect to see a 200 pip move.
Tradable pairs
EURHUF
USDHUF
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
