Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[RoboForex Team]

Gold (XAUUSD) is up, rising above 2,650 USD

This week, XAUUSD prices received support from buyers at the 2,600 USD level and reversed upwards, with growth likely to continue. More details in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 29 November 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the US markets are closed as the country celebrates Thanksgiving Day
• Current trend: Upward movement
• XAUUSD forecast for 29 November 2024: 2,650 and 2,700

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes completed a downward correction and confidently reversed upwards, resuming the long-term uptrend. Gold remains in strong demand from central banks and investors, supported by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy easing and the escalation of local military conflicts. The decline in the US dollar against major currencies also contributed to Gold’s growth this week.

With US markets closed today for the Thanksgiving holiday, no macroeconomic data is expected to be released. Without major news, Gold may continue to strengthen moderately within the current technical framework.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

GBPUSD declines at the beginning of the week as the news lull ends

The British pound sterling is undergoing a correction after its recent rise and is trading at 1.2691, as the impact of the US dollar has returned in full force. Find out more in our analysis for 2 December 2024.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• The GBPUSD pair rose briefly before pausing
• The extended US holidays provided support for the pound’s rise
• GBPUSD forecast for 2 December 2024: 1.2635 and 1.2763

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD rate has dropped to 1.2691.

At the end of last week, the GBP strengthened against the US dollar as overseas investors observed an extended Thanksgiving holiday. Trading volumes were low, but November proved to be highly volatile.

However, the pound’s November losses against the US dollar were less pronounced than the euro’s. The GBP’s resilience was supported by expectations of a more decisive monetary policy from the Bank of England and the threat of tariff complications from the new US administration. For the pound, the absence of news was indeed good news.

The GBPUSD forecast appears moderate.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY resumes growth, but the yen will not retreat easily

The USDJPY pair rose to 150.06 on Tuesday. Despite sustained pressure, the Japanese yen remains resilient. Find out more in our analysis for 3 December 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair recorded modest gains
• Investors remain optimistic about a December Bank of Japan interest rate hike
• USDJPY forecast for 3 December 2024: 150.70

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY exchange rate rose to 150.06.

Despite local pressure from the US dollar, the yen remains close to a seven-week high. The optimism is attributed to expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in December.

Last weekend, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that further rate hikes were imminent as economic data aligned with expectations.

Investors currently assess the likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate hike this month at 60%, compared to no more than 50% last week.

The USDJPY forecast is neutral.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD remains in a consolidation phase, with crucial news ahead

The EURUSD pair is stable around the 1.0502 level. The market is conserving strength ahead of US statistics. More details in our analysis for 4 December 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair remains in a consolidation phase
• Market participants are awaiting November US employment reports
• EURUSD forecast for 4 December 2024: 1.0628

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is hovering around 1.0502 in the middle of the week.

The primary currency pair has seen only modest movements in recent days. Political turmoil in France has already been priced in, but the market still seeks safe-haven assets, keeping the euro relatively low.

The release of US labour market data supported the US dollar. The number of job vacancies in the US increased moderately in October while layoffs decreased, which is a positive sign for the sector as a whole.

The market’s focus now shifts to the ADP private sector employment change data due on Wednesday and a large batch of employment statistics on Friday.

The EURUSD forecast remains moderate.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

AUDUSD halted its decline: even sellers take a break

The AUDUSD pair has paused around 0.6434. The Australian dollar could tumble at any moment. Find out more in our analysis for 5 December 2024.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• The AUDUSD pair halted its decline
• The market capitalised on trade surplus statistics to pause AUD sales
• AUDUSD forecast for 5 December 2024: 0.6480

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate fell to 0.6434 before stabilising.

The latest data revealed that Australia recorded its largest trade surplus in eight months this October, thanks to a recovery in exports.

However, the AUD remains near a four-month low against the US dollar as the market continues to factor in weak GDP data and anticipates an imminent easing of monetary policy by the RBA.

On Wednesday, the AUDUSD pair declined by almost 1%.

The AUDUSD forecast appears bleak, with sellers likely to return to the market at any moment.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Gold (XAUUSD) is consolidating within a range ahead of nonfarm payrolls

XAUUSD prices are consolidating within a narrow range near the 2,650 USD level as market participants await US employment statistics. Find out more in our XAUUSD analysis for today, 6 December 2024.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: market participants await US labour market data, with nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate due today
• Current trend: consolidating within a range
• XAUUSD forecast for 6 December 2024: 2,700 and 2,600

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD prices continue to hold firmly above 2,600 USD. The asset appears poised to complete its correction and move towards annual highs. The US labour market statistics released during the American trading session could drive further price increases.

The data released by Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) on Wednesday showed an increase of 146 thousand in US jobs, which was nearly in line with the forecast of +150 thousand.

The market awaits another batch of US employment statistics today: nonfarm payrolls (the economy is projected to show an increase of 200 thousand jobs) and the unemployment rate (projected at 4.2%). Better-than-forecast data will support the US dollar, likely extending the correction in the XAUUSD pair. Conversely, weaker-than-expected figures could trigger a return to Gold’s annual highs.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD declines to 1.0539: investors avoid risk

The EURUSD pair is under selling pressure, with the market favouring the US dollar again. Find out more in our analysis for 9 December 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The EURUSD pair has been declining for the second consecutive trading session
• This week’s US inflation report will be the last statistics to be released before the Federal Reserve meeting
• EURUSD forecast for 9 December 2024: 1.0535, 1.0480, and 1.0460

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate fell to 1.0539 on Monday.

The US dollar earlier came under pressure as investors were selling the USD following the release of US labour market statistics for November. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from the previous 4.1%. It remained unchanged for two consecutive months and has only now shifted in a negative direction. Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 227 thousand, while a month ago, the indicator increased by a symbolic 36 thousand.

Monthly job gains in the past four reports averaged 150 thousand. The figure is less than required to provide jobs for the constantly growing population.

This week, the focus will be on the inflation release, the last significant report before the December Federal Reserve meeting.

The EURUSD forecast appears negative.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Brent is trading below 72.00 USD following the OPEC+ meeting

Brent is trading within a broad sideways range, with prices currently hovering around 72.00 USD. Market participants did not receive significant signals from the OPEC+ meeting. Find out more in our Brent analysis for today, 10 December 2024.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Current trend: trading within a broad consolidation range
• Market focus: the OPEC+ decision aligned with market expectations
• Brent forecast for 10 December 2024: 72.00 and 70.00

Fundamental analysis

At Thursday’s meeting, OPEC+ decided to keep oil output at current levels for Q1 2025. The group plans to gradually increase production starting from Q2 and continue this policy until September 2026. This decision aligned with market expectations, resulting in no strong reaction from oil quotes, with prices remaining in the 70.00-76.00 USD sideways range.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release US oil stock statistics today, with data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) due tomorrow. A reduction in oil reserves may support Brent prices, whereas an increase in the figures could push the asset lower.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY halted its rise, pausing ahead of a new wave of growth

The USDJPY pair is consolidating around 151.60. The prerequisites for further growth remain in place. Discover more in our analysis for 11 December 2024.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair halted after a wave of growth
• The local strengthening of the US dollar is exerting pressure on the yen
• USDJPY forecast for 11 December 2024: 150.77

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate rose to 151.60 and then paused to consolidate.

The Japanese yen remains near a two-week low against the US dollar, as expectations surrounding the release of the US inflation report are supporting the USD.

Japan’s Tankan Index data was negative in December, while the BSI in the manufacturing sector improved in Q4 2024. Producer price statistics were also released, showing Japan’s fastest growth in 16 months. The focus of yen supporters has shifted to the December Bank of Japan meeting. While the market anticipates an interest rate hike, doubts about it remain significant.

The USDJPY forecast does not rule out further price increases.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

AUDUSD: the Australian dollar has a chance of strengthening

Amid positive data from Australia, the AUDUSD rate may continue its ascent to the 0.6444 level. More details in our analysis for 12 December 2024.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

• Australia’s employment change in November: previously at 12.2 thousand, currently at 35.6 thousand
• Australia’s unemployment rate in November: previously at 4.1%, currently at 3.9%
• US initial jobless claims: previously at 224 thousand, projected at 221 thousand
• AUDUSD forecast for 12 December 2024: 0.6444

Fundamental analysis

Australia’s employment change reflects the difference in the number of officially employed citizens over the reporting period. The previous value was 12.2 thousand, while the actual figure came in at 35.6 thousand, exceeding both expectations and the earlier reading. This could indicate some improvement in Australia’s economic climate. Following the release of the employment data, the AUDUSD pair underwent a correction.

Australia’s unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%, down from the previous reading. Fundamental analysis for 12 December 2024 shows that this improvement in unemployment figures became a positive factor for the Australian dollar.

The forecast for 12 December 2024 suggests that US initial jobless claims for the previous week are likely to fall to 221 thousand from the previous 224 thousand. The decrease is expected to be minor, serving as a neutral factor for the US dollar.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Weak US unemployment data supports a decline in EURUSD

Despite the ECB decision, the EURUSD rate remains under pressure, currently standing at 1.0461. Discover more in our analysis for 13 December 2024.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• The US dollar remains under pressure even after a 25-basis-point ECB interest rate cut
• US initial jobless claims rose to 242 thousand, reaching the highest level since mid-October
• US PPI increased by 3.0%, marking the most substantial growth since February 2023
• Traders expect the Federal Reserve to lower the interest rate by 0.25% next week, with the probability estimated at 96.4%
• EURUSD forecast for 13 December 2024: 1.0460 and 1.0410

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is declining for the sixth consecutive trading session, with sellers seeking to establish a foothold below the 1.0465 support level. The US dollar remains under pressure despite the ECB reducing the interest rate by 25 basis points. Markets are now likely to expect another 25-basis-points cut by the Federal Reserve next week. However, the US regulator’s future actions in 2025 remain uncertain, which adds pressure to the pair according to today’s EURUSD forecast.

The ECB reiterated its commitment to reducing inflation to its medium-term target. However, its press release omitted the statement regarding keeping rates at restrictive levels as long as necessary. The regulator noted that future interest rate decisions would be based on economic data analysis at each meeting without pre-committing to a predetermined course of action.

Meanwhile, the US initial jobless claims rose by 18 thousand to 242 thousand, the highest level since mid-October. This data reinforced expectations of a 0.25% Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming meeting, with the markets estimating the odds at 96.4%. At the same time, producer prices rose by 3.0% year-on-year in November, marking the most substantial increase since February 2023 and greatly exceeding analysts’ expectations. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 3.4%, matching October’s pace and exceeding the average expert forecast of 3.2%.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team