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Solid ECN

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Chart of the Day - USDCAD​

USDCAD has been trading in a descending triangle pattern since October 2022. The pair failed to break above the resistance zone ranging below the 1.3500 area yesterday and can be seen pulling back today. USDCAD is expected to get more volatile later today as traders will be offered comments from both - Fed Chair Powell (5:40 pm GMT) and BoC Governor Macklem (5:45pm GMT).

Solid jobs data led some to believe that the Fed may switch back to a 50 bp rate hike at its next meeting and Powell's comments will be key in shaping expectations further. Macklem will deliver a speech titled "How monetary policy works" at CFA Society Quebec. Speech will surely touch on the topic of monetary policy as the title implies. More importantly, Macklem will answer reporters' questions afterwards at 7:00 pm GMT and it could be a chance for more details on the current policy outlook.


USDCAD is trading around 1% below upper limit of the triangle pattern and around 1.2% above the lower limit. While today's speeches from BoC and Fed heads may not lead to an immediate breakout, they could set the tone for the coming days, which may lead to a breakout. A textbook range of the breakout from the pattern in either direction is 720 pips.​


Solid ECN

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Chart of the Day - USDDIX

The dollar index fell below 103 on Wednesday, extending yesterday's losses sparked by Powell’s latest comments. Head of the Fed said that more rate hikes will likely be needed and that the terminal rate could peak higher if the jobs market remains strong, however underlined that disinflation has begun. Traders now look ahead to more Fed commentary on Wednesday for further guidance.


From a technical point of view, USDIDX bounced off key resistance at 103.40, which is marked with upper limit of the local 1:1 structure, previous price reactions,50 SMA (green line) and upper limit of the descending channel. As long as price sits below the aforementioned level, the main sentiment remains bearish. Nearest major support to watch is located around recent lows at 100.60. On the other hand, if buyers manage to regain control, upward correction may be launched towards resistance at 105.30, which coincides with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the upward move launched in January 2021.​


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Bitcoin is Trying to Maintain Momentum Above $23,000​

Bitcoin is trading near $23,000 today. After Powell's speech yesterday, cryptocurrencies were unable to continue their rally despite the initial euphoria. The mood among cryptocurrencies is mixed, with the biggest loser being Graph which gained nearly 50% yesterday on the AI trend. Let's take a look at some key 'on-chain' indicators like NUPL and SOPR, and see how the balance of short (STH) and long-term (LTH) BTC addresses:


NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/ Loss Ratio) indicator tracks the ratio of unrealized profit/loss and shows that the rally has lifted Bitcoin above the average purchase price of the broad market, making the 'average' BTC holder back in profit. Compiling the duration of the negative NUPL in all the bull markets, we observe a historical similarity between the current cycle (166 days) and the bear markets of 2011-12 (157 days) and 2018-19 (134 days). However, the 2015-2016 bear market stood out under this, experiencing a dominance of unrealized losses twice as long as the current one. This could serve as a potential warning signal should BTC return below $20,000.


The ratio between the total unrealized gain held by the market and its annual average could be another indicator of momentum. The momentum metric is currently approaching the equilibrium point and shows similarities to the recent phases of the 2015 and 2018 bull markets. Confirmed breakouts above the equilibrium point (1 - the horizontal red line) coincided with a change in the market's profit structure in the past foreshadowed a longer recovery in sentiment. The length of time elapsed below the equilibrium point was similar in all major bear markets, but reaching a key on-chain level may foreshadow supply resistance - the index is struggling to climb above resistance on a sustained basis, which underscores how important it is to overcome $24,000 on a sustained basis.


The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator can be used to check the profit aggregated by different groups of BTC holders. For short-term traders (STH, in red), we see that the STH-SOPR is currently trading above the 1.0 value, showing the first sharp increase in profitability since March 2022. This reflects the large amount of BTC purchased at lower prices in recent months, which can be sold at a profit if sentiment weakens further.


It is positive that not only short-term investors but the broader market also gained after a very deep and prolonged period of losses. However, assessing the LTH (Long Term Holder) group of long-term investors, we can see that the stressful situation has continued nd since the LUNY implosion. Although the group is still, on average, in a loss, there are the first signs of recovery, including the potential formation of an upward LTH-SOPR trend. During the 2018 bull market, long-term investors averaged 291 days in losses; today it's about 265 days.


Bitcoin, W1 interval. The major cryptocurrency is still struggling to climb above the 200-week average, which has turned into resistance from its historic, very strong support in 2022.​

Solid ECN

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Chart of the Day - USDCHF​

Swiss franc strengthened on Monday after the annual inflation rate in Switzerland jumped to 3.3% YoY in January, the highest reading since September 2022, from 2.8% in the prior month and above analysts' estimates of 2.9%, which should support the case for further SNB policy tightening. Pair may experience increased volatility ahead of tomorrow’s US inflation data that could reinforce the case for more Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.


From technical point of view, the pair broke below the local support at 0.9235, which is marked with previous price reactions, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the latest upward wave and 200 SMA (red line). As long as price sits below, downward move may deepen towards next major support at 0.9200, which coincides with the lower limit of the triangle formation, 50 SMA (green line) and 38.2% retracement.​


Solid ECN

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Chart of the Day - GBPUSD

The GBPUSD pair erased most of the early gains as investors digested latest figures from the UK labour market. The UK Office for National Statistics Office for National Statistics reported that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7% in December as widely expected, while the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits fell by 12.9K in January. Moreover, December reading was also revised down sharply to -3.2K as compared to the 19.7k rise estimated originally. The number of people in work grew by 74k in Q4 of 2022, easily topping analysts’ projections of a 40k increase. The number of part-time employees jumped to the highest level since the September-November period of 2021, however the number of full-time employees decreased but still above pre-pandemic levels. On self-employment, part-time self-employed increased, while full-time self-employed remained low.


On the other hand, in November 2022 to January 2023, job vacancies fell by 76K to 1,134K, the seventh consecutive quarterly fall, reflecting uncertainty across industries, as survey respondents continue to cite economic pressures as a factor in holding back on recruitment.

Meanwhile US dollar trades slightly lower, extending yesterday's decline, however further downside move may be capped as traders might refrain from placing aggressive bets ahead of the crucial US consumer inflation figures, which will be released at 1:30 pm BST.

From a technical point of view, GBPUSD rose sharply in the morning after the release of UK data, however the pair pulled back after buyers failed to break above the 100 EMA (purple line). If sellers manage to regain full control, then declines may deepen towards local support at 1.2075. On the other hand, if bulls manage to regain control, next key resistance to watch can be found around 1.2215.​


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Solid ECN

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Economic Calendar: FOMC Minutes, German IFO
  • European indices set for flat opening of the cash session​
  • FOMC minutes due at 7:00 pm GMT​
  • German IFO data for February, Nvidia earnings​

European stock market indices are set to open little change compared to yesterday's cash session closing levels. This comes after a downbeat US session yesterday and in Asia today. Nevertheless, moods look to have calmed down a bit as we head into a new trading day. Risky assets, like commodities or cryptocurrencies, are pulling back while precious metals trade a touch higher. NZD is G10 top performer following RBNZ rate hike while AUD lags the most after disappointing Q4 data.

Economic calendar for the day ahead is light but includes some interesting releases. FOMC minutes release is a key macro event of the day. Powell has been rather hawkish at its latest meeting and investors are eager to see details of discussion. Apart from that, traders will also be offered German IFO indices for February and API print on US oil inventories. RBNZ Governor Orr is set to speak in the evening while Nvidia is scheduled to report earnings after Wall Street close​
  • 9:00 am GMT - Germany, IFO index for February. Expected: 91.2. Previous: 90.2​
  • 9:00 am GMT - Italy, CPI inflation for January. Expected: 10.1% YoY. Previous: 11.6% YoY​
  • 7:00 pm GMT - FOMC minutes​
  • 9:40 pm GMT - API report on US oil inventories. Expected: +1.1 mb. Previous: +10.51 mb​

Central bankers' speeches
  • 7:10 pm GMT - RBNZ Governor Orr​
  • 10:30 pm GMT - Fed Williams​

Top Wall Street earnings reports
  • Baidu (BIDU.US) - before market open​
  • TJX (TJX.US) - before market open​
  • NVIDIA (NVDA.US) - after market close​
  • Lucid Group (LCID.US) - after market close​
  • Etsy (ETSY.US) - after market close​


Solid ECN

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Economic Calendar: CBRT Rate Decision, US Q4 GDP Revision​

  • European indices set for slightly higher opening​
  • Revisions of European CPI data and US GDP data​
  • CBRT expected to cut rates by 50 bp​

Futures markets point to a slightly higher opening of the European cash session today. This comes after a mixed trading in Asia earlier today and a mixed Wall Street trading yesterday. FOMC minutes release triggered a slight hawkish reaction on the markets (USD up, equities down) but it did not translate into any larger move.

Economic calendar for the day ahead includes some interesting releases. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is set to announce its next rate decision at 11:00 am GMT today and expectations are for 50 basis point rate cut. European CPI data and US Q4 GDP report will be revisions but may still trigger some moves on EURUSD should they show significant deviations from preliminary values. EURUSD may also see some moves on speeches from ECB and Fed members today. Energy traders will tune in for data on US oil and natural gas inventories. Last but not least, Moderna, Booking Holdings and Beyond Meat can be found among today's earnings reporters.​
  • 10:00 am GMT - Euro area, CPI inflation for January (final). First release: 8.5% YoY​
  • 11:00 am GMT - CBRT rate decision​
  • 1:30 pm GMT - US, GDP report for Q4 (annualized, revision). First release: 2.9%​
  • 1:30 pm GMT - US, jobless claims. Expected: 199k. Previous: 194k​
  • 3:30 pm GMT - EIA natural gas storage. Expected: -60 bcf. Previous: -100 bcf​

  • 4:00 pm GMT - DOE report on US oil inventories.​
  • Oil inventories. Expected: +1.2 mb (API: +9.89 mb)​
  • Gasoline inventories. Expected: +1.5 mb (API: +0.89 mb)​
  • Distillate inventories. Expected: +0.4 mb (API: +1.37 mb)​

Central bankers' speeches​

  • 9:30 am GMT - BoE Mann​
  • 10:45 am GMT - BoE Cunliffe​
  • 3:00 pm GMT - ECB De Cos​
  • 3:50 pm GMT - Fed Bostic​
  • 7:00 pm GMT - Fed Daly​

Top Wall Street earnings reports​

  • Alibaba Group (BABA.US) - before market open​
  • Moderna (MRNA.US) - before market open​
  • Cheniere Energy (LNG.US) - before market open​
  • Domino's Pizza (DPZ.US) - before market open​
  • Nikola (NKLA.US) - before market open​
  • Booking Holdings (BKNG.US) - after market close​
  • Warner Bros Discovery (WBD.US) - after market close​
  • Wish (WISH.US) - after market close​
  • Beyond Meat (BYND.US) - after market close​


Solid ECN

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Solid ECN

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Solid ECN

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  • US indices finished yesterday's trading lower, following a volatile session. S&P 500 dropped 0.15%, Dow Jones moved 0.28% lower and Russell 2000 slumped 1.60%. Nasdaq was outperformer and gained 0.45%​
  • Some relief can be spotted on the bond markets with US 2-year yield climbing 15 basis points today, following an over-100 basis point slump yesterday. 2-year US yield sits around 4.17-4.18% today​
  • Indices from Asia-Pacific traded lower today. Nikkei plunged 2.2%, S&P/ASX 200 moved 1.4% lower, Kospi slumped 2.5% and Nifty 50 traded 0.6% down. Indices from China traded 0.4-2.2% lower​
  • DAX futures point to a flat opening of the European cash session​
  • Fed Chair Powell said that thorough, transparent and swift review of SVB failure is needed. Results of the review will be published at the beginning of May​
  • Canadian regulator will boost monitoring and begin daily check-ins with domestic banks in an attempt to prevent SVB-like banking collapse in Canada​
  • Suzuki, finance minister of Japan, said that he does not expect significant financial impact from SVB collapse on Japanese financial system​
  • US National Security Adviser Sullivan said that the Biden-Xi phone call will take place after the Chinese National Party Congress ends. No comment on topics to be discussed was offered​
  • Nomura expects Fed to deliver a 25 bp rate cut and QT pause announcement at next week's FOMC meeting. BlackRock does not expect FOMC to halt rate hike cycle as response to SVB was swift, decisive and situation is not repeat of 2008​
  • According to Global Times report, Chinese authorities are considering increasing retirement age as the country is beginning to struggle with rapidly aging population​
  • South China Morning Post reports that Russia has agreed to 60-day extension to Russia-Ukraine grain deal​
  • Australian household spending dropped 01.% MoM in February​
  • Cryptocurrencies are trading relatively little changed following yesterday's rally. Bitcoin gains 1%, Ethereum drops 0.2% and Dogecoin traded 0.7% lower​
  • Oil is trading 0.8-0.9% lower this morning while gold drops 0.1%​
  • NZD and CAD are the best performing major currencies while JPY and EUR lag the most​


Russell 2000 (US2000) was the worst performing major Wall Street index yesterday, dropping over 1.5%. As fallout from SVB collapse is likely to be limited to smaller banks, small-cap index is taking a much bigger hit than S&P 500 or Dow Jones.​


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