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United States ADP Non-Farm Employment Change June 3 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

ADP is a private company that analysis the employment data from 23 Million working adults. It's a precursor to the highly anticipated US Non-Farm Payrolls which comes out the following Friday.

A higher than expected number (more working adults) is good for the US Economy and would create a buy on USD pair, and vice versa a lower than expected number would create a sell in USD pairs.


Historic deviations and their outcome

May 5 2021 Small -58 deviation only created a 5 pip move on USDJPY, this deviation is too small considering the forecast range.
Check out the price action here:

March 31 2021 Only -33 deviation created an 8 pip move, not a strong enough deviation.
Check out the price action here:

March 3 2021 10 pip move from this -60 deviation. The move didn't last long!
Check out the price action here:




I will use forecasts of:

ADP Employment Change 650



Today's trade plan

If we see a 300+- deviation from the forecast today, then we can hope for a sustained move that we may be able to get some pips from. This deviation will cover all forecasts in the range, so it will be a significant surprise, although unlikely to occur.



Tradable pairs

USDJPY


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
 
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