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United States Crude Oil Inventories July 21 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.

Historic deviations and their outcome

July 14 2021 I didn't set up for this event as there were other news factors which pushed the oil prices down, It wouldn't have triggered regardless, and there was a conflict on Gasoline. The news did not move the price on this occasion.

Check out the price action here:

July 8 2021 Minimal deviation from Oil on this occasion but substantial deviations from Gasoline. It wasn't a trade for me but good to see the markets react with a healthy 41 pip move in the first minute followed by continuation.

Check out the price action here:

June 30 2021 On this occasion, we saw a - 2000 deviation to the downside. However, Gasoline conflicted; therefore, it wasn't a trigger for me.

Check out the price action here:

I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories -1850
DOE Gasoline Inventories +0500

Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -

Forecasts and API.
1) DOE Crude Forecast = -4500
2) API Actual Crude = +0800
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -1050
4) API Actual Gasoline = +3300

Tradable pairs


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.


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