JamesThatcher
Well-known member
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil but with a conflict from gasoline, still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
August 25 2021 Very minimal negative deviation with support from Gasoline wasn't a trade for me, it was good to see a 45 pip reaction in favour of the Crude oil inventories; however, the deviation wasn't sizeable for me to take a trade.
Check out the price action here:
August 18 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories -4000
DOE Gasoline Inventories -2900
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.
Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts
1) DOE Crude Forecast = -3574 (BB)
2) API Actual Crude = -5400
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -2900 (BB)
4) API Actual Gasoline = -2800
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil but with a conflict from gasoline, still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-09-01 14:30:00.0
US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-09-01 14:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
August 25 2021 Very minimal negative deviation with support from Gasoline wasn't a trade for me, it was good to see a 45 pip reaction in favour of the Crude oil inventories; however, the deviation wasn't sizeable for me to take a trade.
Check out the price action here:
US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-08-25 14:30:00.0
US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-08-25 14:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
August 18 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-08-18 14:30:00.0
US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-08-18 14:30:00.0
calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories -4000
DOE Gasoline Inventories -2900
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.
Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts
1) DOE Crude Forecast = -3574 (BB)
2) API Actual Crude = -5400
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -2900 (BB)
4) API Actual Gasoline = -2800
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
