United States Non-Farm Employment Change September 3 2021

JamesThatcher

Well-known member
What does the data mean to the market?

The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.

NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.

The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.

All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.


Historic deviations and their outcome

August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.

Check out the price action here:

July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave a good spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a heavy retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.


Check out the price action here:

May 7 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -734k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with a supporting +0.3% rise from the Unemployment Rate, and This crushed the US dollar across the board. I managed to bank some excellent profits early on the back of this data as the USD pairs continued to slide south. It was a shame that the Average Earnings conflicted largely. A conflict of +0.7 on this line would have upset the move-in standard times, but not today!


Check out the price action here:




I will use forecasts of:

Change in NonFarm Payrolls 725
Unemployment Rate 5.2



Today's trade plan

This report is well in focus. It holds the key to when the US Federal Reserve will start tapering.

I'll be looking for a 75k deviation in either direction from Non-Farm Payrolls without any conflicts from Unemployment and no significant conflict from Average Earnings.

We can expect an excellent move. This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.


Tradable pairs

EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
XAUUSD


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
 

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What does the data mean to the market?

The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.

NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.

The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.

All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.


Historic deviations and their outcome

August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.

Check out the price action here:

July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave a good spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a heavy retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.


Check out the price action here:

May 7 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -734k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with a supporting +0.3% rise from the Unemployment Rate, and This crushed the US dollar across the board. I managed to bank some excellent profits early on the back of this data as the USD pairs continued to slide south. It was a shame that the Average Earnings conflicted largely. A conflict of +0.7 on this line would have upset the move-in standard times, but not today!


Check out the price action here:




I will use forecasts of:

Change in NonFarm Payrolls 725
Unemployment Rate 5.2



Today's trade plan

This report is well in focus. It holds the key to when the US Federal Reserve will start tapering.

I'll be looking for a 75k deviation in either direction from Non-Farm Payrolls without any conflicts from Unemployment and no significant conflict from Average Earnings.

We can expect an excellent move. This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.


Tradable pairs

EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
XAUUSD


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

useful insights in advance
 
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