📈Weekly Outlook + Impact Reaction📉

[Elina Ward]

Friday 2 January 2026​

High-Impact Economic Calendar – 5–9 January 2026​

Times in GMT
All events listed are HIGH IMPACT

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Monday, 5 Jan 2026​

Time	Country	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
07:30	CH	Retail Sales YoY (Nov)	3.0%	2.7%	High
07:30	CH	Retail Sales MoM (Nov)	0.1%	0.7%	High
15:00	US	ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec)	48.0	48.2	High

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Tuesday, 6 Jan 2026​

Time	Country	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
07:45	FR	Inflation Rate MoM Prel (Dec)	0.2%	-0.2%	High
07:45	FR	Inflation Rate YoY Prel (Dec)	0.9%	0.9%	High
13:00	DE	Inflation Rate MoM Prel (Dec)	0.4%	-0.2%	High
13:00	DE	Inflation Rate YoY Prel (Dec)	2.2%	2.3%	High

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Wednesday, 7 Jan 2026​

Time	Country	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
00:30	AU	Building Permits MoM Prel (Nov)	2.1%	-6.4%	High
00:30	AU	Inflation Rate MoM (Nov)	0.4%	0.0%	High
00:30	AU	Inflation Rate YoY (Nov)	3.8%	3.8%	High
07:00	DE	Retail Sales MoM (Nov)	0.6%	-0.3%	High
07:00	DE	Retail Sales YoY (Nov)	1.2%	0.9%	High
08:55	DE	Unemployment Rate (Dec)	6.3%	6.3%	High
10:00	EA	Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash (Dec)	2.3%	2.4%	High
10:00	EA	Inflation Rate YoY Flash (Dec)	2.0%	2.1%	High
10:00	EA	Inflation Rate MoM Flash (Dec)	0.3%	-0.3%	High
13:15	US	ADP Employment Change (Dec)	45K	-32K	High
15:00	US	JOLTS Job Openings (Nov)	7.7M	7.67M	High
15:00	US	ISM Services PMI (Dec)	52.0	52.6	High
15:00	CA	Ivey PMI s.a (Dec)	49.5	48.4	High

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Thursday, 8 Jan 2026​

Time	Country	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
00:30	AU	Balance of Trade (Nov)	A$3.8B	A$4.38B	High
05:00	JP	Consumer Confidence (Dec)	37.9	37.5	High
07:00	DE	Factory Orders MoM (Nov)	0.5%	1.5%	High
07:30	CH	Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)	0.0%	0.0%	High
07:30	CH	Inflation Rate MoM (Dec)	-0.1%	-0.2%	High
10:00	EA	PPI YoY (Nov)	-0.8%	-0.5%	High
10:00	EA	PPI MoM (Nov)	1.4%	0.1%	High
10:00	EA	Unemployment Rate (Nov)	6.4%	6.4%	High
13:30	US	Initial Jobless Claims	205K	199K	High
23:30	JP	Household Spending YoY (Nov)	-1.0%	-3.0%	High

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Friday, 9 Jan 2026​

Time	Country	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
01:30	CN	Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)	0.7%	0.7%	High
01:30	CN	PPI YoY (Dec)	-2.0%	-2.2%	High
01:30	CN	Inflation Rate MoM (Dec)	0.0%	-0.1%	High
07:00	DE	Balance of Trade (Nov)	€17.1B	€16.9B	High
07:00	DE	Industrial Production MoM (Nov)	0.4%	1.8%	High
07:45	FR	Industrial Production MoM (Nov)	0.6%	0.2%	High
08:00	CH	Unemployment Rate (Dec)	2.9%	2.9%	High
10:00	EA	Retail Sales YoY (Nov)	1.9%	1.5%	High
10:00	EA	Retail Sales MoM (Nov)	0.5%	0.0%	High
13:30	US	Unemployment Rate (Dec)	4.6%	4.6%	High
13:30	US	Non-Farm Payrolls (Dec)	45K	64K	High
13:30	CA	Full-Time Employment Change (Dec)	25K	-9.4K	High
13:30	CA	Unemployment Rate (Dec)	6.7%	6.5%	High
13:30	CA	Employment Change (Dec)	40K	53.6K	High
15:00	US	Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (Jan)	52.7	52.9	High

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Why this week matters​

High-impact economic releases often trigger sharp volatility across currencies, commodities, indices, and equities, as markets rapidly reprice expectations. With major inflation, employment, and PMI data clustered throughout the week, traders should be prepared for elevated intraday price swings, particularly around U.S., Eurozone, and Asia-Pacific sessions.

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US Labour & Consumer Data - 16 December 2025​

The topic below examined U.S. labor and consumer data, highlighting recent trends in employment conditions and consumer spending that provided insight into the broader health of the U.S. economy.

The U.S. labor market showed mixed signals late last year, according to delayed official data released in December. The economy lost 105,000 jobs in October amid the federal government shutdown but added 64,000 jobs in November, exceeding market expectations of around 40,000. Despite the partial recovery, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, a four-year high, pointing to a weakening labor market. Earlier job gains for August and September were revised lower, while federal government employment fell sharply during the shutdown. Data reliability was also questioned, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics faced disruptions, staffing shortages, and political pressure, prompting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to urge caution when interpreting the figures. Overall, the data suggested that while job losses slowed, labor market conditions remained fragile and did not materially change the Fed’s near-term policy stance.

Retail and food services sales in the United States were essentially flat in November, totaling $732.6 billion, according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau. While monthly sales showed little change, they were 3.5% higher year on year compared with November 2024. Cumulative sales from August to October 2025 rose 4.2% from the same period a year earlier, reflecting steady underlying demand. Growth was led by nonstore retailers, which recorded a 9% annual increase, while food services and drinking places saw sales rise 4.1% year on year, highlighting continued strength in online spending and consumer services.


Chart Study

The chart below illustrates the impact of high-impact U.S. data releases on EUR/USD price action, shown on a 5-minute candlestick chart on 16 December 2025, following the release of Non-Farm Payrolls and Retail Sales data.

Potential Profit Study

On 16 December 2025, EUR/USD opened near 1.17699 and initially moved higher as pre-release positioning lifted the pair to an intraday high of 1.18042. Following the release of U.S. labor market and retail sales data, sentiment shifted in favor of the U.S. dollar, triggering a sharp reversal. As dollar strength increased, EUR/USD turned decisively bearish, falling below its opening level and extending losses to an intraday low of 1.17344. The move from high to low totaled approximately 69.8 pips ($698 USD), highlighting the strong bearish reaction in EUR/USD as markets repriced the data and reinforced U.S. dollar demand.

 

[Elina Ward]

Friday 9 January 2026​

Below is a weekly calendar highlighting key high-impact economic releases, followed by a chart illustrating how such events can influence market price action.

High-Impact Economic Calendar – 12–16 January 2026​

Times in GMT
All events are HIGH IMPACT for traders

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Monday, 12 Jan 2026​

Time	Country	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
00:30	AU	Household Spending YoY (Nov)	5.7%	5.6%	High
23:30	AU	Westpac Consumer Confidence (Jan)	2.6%	-9.0%	High

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Tuesday, 13 Jan 2026​

Time	Country	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
13:30	US	Inflation Rate MoM (Dec)	0.2%	—	High
13:30	US	Core Inflation Rate MoM (Dec)	0.2%	—	High
13:30	US	Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)	2.6%	2.7%	High
13:30	US	Core Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)	2.6%	2.6%	High
13:30	CA	Building Permits MoM (Nov)	-6.8%	14.9%	High
15:00	US	New Home Sales (Oct)	700K	—	High
15:00	US	New Home Sales MoM (Oct)	1.4%	—	High
15:00	US	New Home Sales (Sep)	690K	800K	High
15:00	US	New Home Sales MoM (Sep)	-13.8%	20.5%	High
21:45	NZ	Building Permits MoM (Nov)	1.0%	-0.9%	High

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Wednesday, 14 Jan 2026​

Time	Country	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
03:00	CN	Imports YoY (Dec)	—	1.9%	High
03:00	CN	Exports YoY (Dec)	—	5.9%	High
03:00	CN	Balance of Trade (Dec)	$105B	$111.6B	High
13:30	US	Retail Sales YoY (Nov)	3.0%	3.5%	High
13:30	US	Retail Sales MoM (Nov)	0.3%	0.0%	High
13:30	US	PPI YoY (Nov)	2.6%	—	High
13:30	US	PPI MoM (Nov)	0.2%	—	High
13:30	US	PPI YoY (Oct)	2.7%	2.7%	High
13:30	US	PPI MoM (Oct)	0.3%	0.3%	High
15:00	US	Existing Home Sales (Dec)	4.06M	4.13M	High
15:00	US	Existing Home Sales MoM (Dec)	-1.6%	0.5%	High
23:50	JP	PPI YoY (Dec)	2.5%	2.7%	High
23:50	JP	PPI MoM (Dec)	0.2%	0.3%	High

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Thursday, 15 Jan 2026​

Time	Country	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
00:01	GB	RICS House Price Balance (Dec)	-16%	-16%	High
07:00	GB	Industrial Production MoM (Nov)	1.0%	1.1%	High
07:00	GB	GDP MoM (Nov)	-0.1%	-0.1%	High
09:00	DE	Full-Year GDP Growth	0.2%	-0.2%	High
10:00	EA	Industrial Production MoM (Nov)	0.2%	0.8%	High
13:30	US	Philadelphia Fed Index (Jan)	-8	-10.2	High
13:30	US	NY Empire State Index (Jan)	1	-3.9	High
13:30	US	Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 10)	212K	208K	High

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Friday, 16 Jan 2026​

Time	Country	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
14:15	US	Industrial Production MoM (Dec)	0.3%	0.2%	High

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​

US Inflation Data - 24 October 2025​

The article above explains the key factors behind the market move on 24 October 2025, followed by a chart illustrating how prices reacted.
US inflation data pointed to a continued cooling trend through late 2025, despite temporary distortions caused by the government shutdown. In September, core consumer prices rose 0.2% month-on-month, slowing from 0.3% in prior months and coming in below expectations, as price pressures eased in shelter, transportation services, and vehicles, while medical care and apparel saw modest rebounds. Overall inflation increased 0.3% MoM in September, slightly softer than August, with energy and shelter remaining the main contributors. On an annual basis, core inflation fell to 2.6% by November, the lowest level since March 2021 and below forecasts, while services and housing inflation continued to ease gradually. By December, overall inflation slowed to 2.7% year-on-year, also below expectations, with core inflation steady at 2.6%, reinforcing signs of moderating inflation momentum even as energy and food prices remained firm.

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Profit Study​

An entry at 4061.44 using 1 standard lot would have required a margin of approximately $812.29 with 1:500 leverage, while the same position under 1:2000 leverage would have required a reduced margin of approximately $203.07.

Based on the subsequent price movement, the potential profit range amounted to 7,713 ticks, corresponding to an estimated gain of $7,713.

 

[Elina Ward]

Friday 16 January 2026​

The weekly calendar outlines key high-impact economic events, allowing traders and investors to stay ahead of potential volatility and plan their market approach with greater awareness.

Weekly High-Impact Economic Calendar​

18–23 January 2026​

All times in GMT | All events listed are HIGH IMPACT

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Sunday, 18 January 2026​

Japan​

Time	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
23:50	Machinery Orders YoY (Nov)	13.2%	12.5%	HIGH IMPACT
23:50	Machinery Orders MoM (Nov)	-4.0%	7.0%	HIGH IMPACT

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Monday, 19 January 2026​

China​

Time	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
02:00	Unemployment Rate (Dec)	5.1%	5.1%	HIGH IMPACT
02:00	GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q4)	1.2%	1.1%	HIGH IMPACT
02:00	GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q4)	4.6%	4.8%	HIGH IMPACT
02:00	Retail Sales YoY (Dec)	1.4%	1.3%	HIGH IMPACT
02:00	Industrial Production YoY (Dec)	5.4%	4.8%	HIGH IMPACT

Canada​

Time	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
13:30	Core Inflation Rate MoM (Dec)	0.0%	-0.1%	HIGH IMPACT
13:30	Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)	2.1%	2.2%	HIGH IMPACT
13:30	Inflation Rate MoM (Dec)	-0.1%	0.1%	HIGH IMPACT
13:30	Core Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)	2.8%	2.9%	HIGH IMPACT

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Tuesday, 20 January 2026​

United Kingdom​

Time	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
07:00	Unemployment Rate (Nov)	5.1%	5.1%	HIGH IMPACT
07:00	Employment Change (Nov)	-25K	-16K	HIGH IMPACT

Germany​

Time	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
07:00	PPI MoM (Dec)	0.1%	0.0%	HIGH IMPACT
07:00	PPI YoY (Dec)	-2.1%	-2.3%	HIGH IMPACT
10:00	ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Jan)	42.0	45.8	HIGH IMPACT

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Wednesday, 21 January 2026​

United Kingdom (Inflation Day)​

Time	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
07:00	Core Inflation Rate MoM (Dec)	0.2%	-0.2%	HIGH IMPACT
07:00	Core Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)	3.1%	3.2%	HIGH IMPACT
07:00	Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)	3.1%	3.2%	HIGH IMPACT
07:00	Inflation Rate MoM (Dec)	0.2%	-0.2%	HIGH IMPACT

Canada​

Time	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
13:30	PPI YoY (Dec)	5.9%	6.1%	HIGH IMPACT
13:30	PPI MoM (Dec)	0.2%	0.9%	HIGH IMPACT

Japan​

Time	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
23:50	Exports YoY (Dec)	—	6.1%	HIGH IMPACT
23:50	Balance of Trade (Dec)	-¥400B	¥322.2B	HIGH IMPACT
23:50	Imports YoY (Dec)	—	1.3%	HIGH IMPACT

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Thursday, 22 January 2026​

Australia​

Time	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
00:30	Full-Time Employment Change (Dec)	30K	-56.5K	HIGH IMPACT
00:30	Unemployment Rate (Dec)	4.4%	4.3%	HIGH IMPACT
00:30	Employment Change (Dec)	40K	-21.3K	HIGH IMPACT

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United States​

Time	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
13:30	Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 17)	195K	198K	HIGH IMPACT
13:30	GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Final Q3)	4.3%	3.8%	HIGH IMPACT
15:00	Personal Spending MoM (Nov)	0.4%	—	HIGH IMPACT
15:00	Personal Income MoM (Nov)	0.3%	—	HIGH IMPACT
15:00	Core PCE Price Index YoY (Nov)	2.7%	—	HIGH IMPACT
15:00	Core PCE Price Index MoM (Nov)	0.1%	—	HIGH IMPACT
15:00	Personal Income MoM (Oct)	0.3%	0.4%	HIGH IMPACT
15:00	Personal Spending MoM (Oct)	0.1%	0.3%	HIGH IMPACT
15:00	Core PCE Price Index YoY (Oct)	2.8%	2.8%	HIGH IMPACT
15:00	Core PCE Price Index MoM (Oct)	0.1%	0.2%	HIGH IMPACT

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New Zealand​

Time	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
21:45	Inflation Rate YoY (Q4)	3.1%	3.0%	HIGH IMPACT

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Australia (PMI Flash)​

Time	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
22:00	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Jan)	51.3	51.0	HIGH IMPACT
22:00	S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Jan)	51.5	51.1	HIGH IMPACT
22:00	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Jan)	51.3	51.6	HIGH IMPACT

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Japan​

Time	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
23:30	Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)	2.7%	2.9%	HIGH IMPACT
23:30	Inflation Rate MoM (Dec)	0.2%	0.4%	HIGH IMPACT
23:30	Core Inflation Rate YoY (Dec)	2.8%	3.0%	HIGH IMPACT

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Friday, 23 January 2026​

Japan​

Time	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
00:30	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Jan)	50.3	50.0	HIGH IMPACT
00:30	S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Jan)	51.5	51.6	HIGH IMPACT
00:30	S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Jan)	50.9	51.1	HIGH IMPACT
03:00	BoJ Interest Rate Decision	0.75%	0.75%	HIGH IMPACT

United Kingdom​

Time	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
07:00	Retail Sales MoM (Dec)	-0.2%	-0.1%	HIGH IMPACT
07:00	Retail Sales YoY (Dec)	0.8%	0.6%	HIGH IMPACT

/ / PMI Wave​

Time	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
08:30	Germany Manufacturing PMI Flash	48.5	47.0	HIGH IMPACT
09:30	UK Manufacturing PMI Flash	50.8	50.6	HIGH IMPACT
09:30	UK Services PMI Flash	51.5	51.4	HIGH IMPACT
09:30	UK Composite PMI Flash	51.7	51.4	HIGH IMPACT
14:45	US Manufacturing PMI Flash	52.0	51.8	HIGH IMPACT
14:45	US Services PMI Flash	52.3	52.5	HIGH IMPACT
14:45	US Composite PMI Flash	52.8	52.7	HIGH IMPACT

Canada​

Time	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
13:30	Retail Sales YoY (Nov)	1.8%	2.0%	HIGH IMPACT
13:30	Retail Sales MoM (Dec)	1.6%	—	HIGH IMPACT

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Weekly volatility note​

This week is packed with back-to-back high-impact releases, meaning traders should expect frequent volatility spikes, wider intraday ranges, rapid price swings, and extended post-release moves, especially during overlapping sessions.
On January 22, the U.S. will release its Core PCE Price Index.

Below is an example illustrating how a high-impact release can affect the markets, based on the previous Core PCE data published on December 5, 2025.

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Core PCE Price Index Release - 5 December 2025​

U.S. data painted a cautiously positive picture, with core PCE inflation rising 0.2% in September while the annual rate eased to 2.8%, slightly below expectations, reinforcing bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut despite ongoing policy divisions. At the same time, consumer sentiment improved for the first time in five months, as the University of Michigan index rose to 53.3 and Preliminary UoM one-year inflation expectations fell to 4.1%, the lowest since January, even as concerns over living costs and the labor market persisted. Together, easing inflation pressures and resilient consumer spending helped support broader market sentiment.

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Profit Study​

Entering at 1.33593 with a one standard lot position required roughly $267 in margin at 1:500 leverage, while higher leverage of 1:2000 reduced the margin requirement to about $66.80. The ensuing 43.1-pip move represented a potential gain of approximately $431.

The chart below illustrates how markets reacted to a high-impact release, using the previous Core PCE data published on December 5, 2025 as an example.

 

[Elina Ward]

Friday 23 January 2026​

Below is a weekly high-impact economic calendar highlighting the key releases traders closely monitor, followed by a chart example demonstrating how a single major event can translate into real market opportunity—showing both the capital required to open a trade and the potential profit generated by the resulting price move.

High-Impact Economic Calendar – 26–30 January 2026​

Times in GMT
All events are HIGH IMPACT for traders

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Monday, 26 Jan 2026​

Time	Country	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
09:00	DE	Ifo Business Climate (Jan)	88.4	87.6	High
13:30	US	Durable Goods Orders MoM (Nov)	1.1%	-2.2%	High
15:30	US	Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)	-6	-10.9	High

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Tuesday, 27 Jan 2026​

Time	Country	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
00:30	AU	NAB Business Confidence (Dec)	2	1	High
15:00	US	CB Consumer Confidence (Jan)	88	89.1	High
15:00	US	Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)	-3	-7	High

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Wednesday, 28 Jan 2026​

Time	Country	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
07:00	DE	GfK Consumer Confidence (Feb)	-26	-26.9	High
14:45	CA	BoC Monetary Policy Report	—	—	High
14:45	CA	BoC Interest Rate Decision	2.25%	2.25%	High
19:00	US	Fed Interest Rate Decision	3.75%	3.75%	High
19:30	US	Fed Press Conference	—	—	High

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Thursday, 29 Jan 2026​

Time	Country	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
05:00	JP	Consumer Confidence (Jan)	37.6	37.2	High
13:30	US	Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 24)	205K	200K	High
15:00	US	Factory Orders MoM (Nov)	0.4%	-1.3%	High
23:50	JP	Retail Sales MoM (Dec)	0.3%	0.6%	High
23:50	JP	Industrial Production MoM Prel (Dec)	1.0%	-2.7%	High

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Friday, 30 Jan 2026​

Time	Country	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
00:30	AU	PPI YoY (Q4)	3.3%	3.5%	High
06:30	FR	GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel (Q4)	1.1%	0.9%	High
06:30	FR	GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel (Q4)	0.2%	0.5%	High
07:45	FR	PPI YoY (Dec)	-3.5%	-3.3%	High
07:45	FR	PPI MoM (Dec)	0.5%	1.1%	High
09:00	DE	GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q4)	0.2%	0.0%	High
09:00	DE	GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q4)	0.5%	0.3%	High
10:00	EA	GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q4)	0.2%	0.3%	High
10:00	EA	GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash (Q4)	1.5%	1.4%	High
13:00	DE	Inflation Rate MoM Prel (Jan)	-0.1%	0.0%	High
13:00	DE	Inflation Rate YoY Prel (Jan)	1.9%	1.8%	High
13:30	US	PPI MoM (Dec)	0.2%	0.2%	High
13:30	US	PPI YoY (Dec)	2.9%	3.0%	High
13:30	CA	GDP MoM (Nov)	0.2%	-0.3%	High
14:45	US	Chicago PMI (Jan)	45	43.5	High

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U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision - 10 December 2025​

The following overview highlights a high-impact Federal Reserve policy decision, showing how shifts in interest rates, forward guidance, and liquidity measures can influence market sentiment and price action—illustrated using a 5-minute XAUUSD candlestick chart.

The Federal Reserve noted that economic activity continues to grow at a moderate pace, while labor market conditions have softened, with slower job gains and a slightly higher unemployment rate, and inflation remaining somewhat elevated. In response to rising downside risks to employment and persistent uncertainty around the outlook, the FOMC voted to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 3.5%–3.75% range, stressing that future adjustments will be data-dependent and guided by risks to both employment and inflation. The decision revealed internal divisions, with some policymakers favoring a deeper cut and others preferring no change, and the Fed also announced it will purchase short-term Treasury securities as needed to maintain ample reserve levels and ensure smooth functioning of money markets, underscoring its commitment to financial stability alongside its dual mandate.

Markets will be closely watching the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, due on Wednesday, 28 January 2026, at 19:00 GMT.


Profit Study

The following profit study demonstrates how price movement following a high-impact release can translate into potential trading returns under different leverage conditions.

An entry at 4181.88 with one standard lot required an estimated margin of $836.38 at 1:500 leverage, while higher leverage of 1:2000 reduced the margin requirement to approximately $209.09. Following the subsequent price move, the trade captured a potential range of 6,576 ticks, translating into an estimated profit of $6,576.