Elina Ward
Well-known member
Friday 2 January 2026
High-Impact Economic Calendar – 5–9 January 2026
Times in GMTAll events listed are
HIGH IMPACT
Monday, 5 Jan 2026
| Time | Country | Event | Forecast | Previous | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:30 |  CH | Retail Sales YoY (Nov) | 3.0% | 2.7% | High |
| 07:30 | CH | Retail Sales MoM (Nov) | 0.1% | 0.7% | High |
| 15:00 |  US | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) | 48.0 | 48.2 | High |
Tuesday, 6 Jan 2026
| Time | Country | Event | Forecast | Previous | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:45 |  FR | Inflation Rate MoM Prel (Dec) | 0.2% | -0.2% | High |
| 07:45 | FR | Inflation Rate YoY Prel (Dec) | 0.9% | 0.9% | High |
| 13:00 |  DE | Inflation Rate MoM Prel (Dec) | 0.4% | -0.2% | High |
| 13:00 | DE | Inflation Rate YoY Prel (Dec) | 2.2% | 2.3% | High |
Wednesday, 7 Jan 2026
| Time | Country | Event | Forecast | Previous | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 |  AU | Building Permits MoM Prel (Nov) | 2.1% | -6.4% | High |
| 00:30 | AU | Inflation Rate MoM (Nov) | 0.4% | 0.0% | High |
| 00:30 | AU | Inflation Rate YoY (Nov) | 3.8% | 3.8% | High |
| 07:00 | DE | Retail Sales MoM (Nov) | 0.6% | -0.3% | High |
| 07:00 | DE | Retail Sales YoY (Nov) | 1.2% | 0.9% | High |
| 08:55 | DE | Unemployment Rate (Dec) | 6.3% | 6.3% | High |
| 10:00 |  EA | Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash (Dec) | 2.3% | 2.4% | High |
| 10:00 | EA | Inflation Rate YoY Flash (Dec) | 2.0% | 2.1% | High |
| 10:00 | EA | Inflation Rate MoM Flash (Dec) | 0.3% | -0.3% | High |
| 13:15 | US | ADP Employment Change (Dec) | 45K | -32K | High |
| 15:00 | US | JOLTS Job Openings (Nov) | 7.7M | 7.67M | High |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services PMI (Dec) | 52.0 | 52.6 | High |
| 15:00 |  CA | Ivey PMI s.a (Dec) | 49.5 | 48.4 | High |
Thursday, 8 Jan 2026
| Time | Country | Event | Forecast | Previous | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | AU | Balance of Trade (Nov) | A$3.8B | A$4.38B | High |
| 05:00 |  JP | Consumer Confidence (Dec) | 37.9 | 37.5 | High |
| 07:00 | DE | Factory Orders MoM (Nov) | 0.5% | 1.5% | High |
| 07:30 | CH | Inflation Rate YoY (Dec) | 0.0% | 0.0% | High |
| 07:30 | CH | Inflation Rate MoM (Dec) | -0.1% | -0.2% | High |
| 10:00 | EA | PPI YoY (Nov) | -0.8% | -0.5% | High |
| 10:00 | EA | PPI MoM (Nov) | 1.4% | 0.1% | High |
| 10:00 | EA | Unemployment Rate (Nov) | 6.4% | 6.4% | High |
| 13:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 205K | 199K | High |
| 23:30 | JP | Household Spending YoY (Nov) | -1.0% | -3.0% | High |
Friday, 9 Jan 2026
| Time | Country | Event | Forecast | Previous | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 |  CN | Inflation Rate YoY (Dec) | 0.7% | 0.7% | High |
| 01:30 | CN | PPI YoY (Dec) | -2.0% | -2.2% | High |
| 01:30 | CN | Inflation Rate MoM (Dec) | 0.0% | -0.1% | High |
| 07:00 | DE | Balance of Trade (Nov) | €17.1B | €16.9B | High |
| 07:00 | DE | Industrial Production MoM (Nov) | 0.4% | 1.8% | High |
| 07:45 | FR | Industrial Production MoM (Nov) | 0.6% | 0.2% | High |
| 08:00 | CH | Unemployment Rate (Dec) | 2.9% | 2.9% | High |
| 10:00 | EA | Retail Sales YoY (Nov) | 1.9% | 1.5% | High |
| 10:00 | EA | Retail Sales MoM (Nov) | 0.5% | 0.0% | High |
| 13:30 | US | Unemployment Rate (Dec) | 4.6% | 4.6% | High |
| 13:30 | US | Non-Farm Payrolls (Dec) | 45K | 64K | High |
| 13:30 | CA | Full-Time Employment Change (Dec) | 25K | -9.4K | High |
| 13:30 | CA | Unemployment Rate (Dec) | 6.7% | 6.5% | High |
| 13:30 | CA | Employment Change (Dec) | 40K | 53.6K | High |
| 15:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel (Jan) | 52.7 | 52.9 | High |
Why this week matters
High-impact economic releases often trigger sharp volatility across currencies, commodities, indices, and equities, as markets rapidly reprice expectations. With major inflation, employment, and PMI data clustered throughout the week, traders should be prepared for elevated intraday price swings, particularly around U.S., Eurozone, and Asia-Pacific sessions.
US Labour & Consumer Data - 16 December 2025
The topic below examined U.S. labor and consumer data, highlighting recent trends in employment conditions and consumer spending that provided insight into the broader health of the U.S. economy.The U.S. labor market showed mixed signals late last year, according to delayed official data released in December. The economy lost 105,000 jobs in October amid the federal government shutdown but added 64,000 jobs in November, exceeding market expectations of around 40,000. Despite the partial recovery, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, a four-year high, pointing to a weakening labor market. Earlier job gains for August and September were revised lower, while federal government employment fell sharply during the shutdown. Data reliability was also questioned, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics faced disruptions, staffing shortages, and political pressure, prompting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to urge caution when interpreting the figures. Overall, the data suggested that while job losses slowed, labor market conditions remained fragile and did not materially change the Fed’s near-term policy stance.
Retail and food services sales in the United States were essentially flat in November, totaling $732.6 billion, according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau. While monthly sales showed little change, they were 3.5% higher year on year compared with November 2024. Cumulative sales from August to October 2025 rose 4.2% from the same period a year earlier, reflecting steady underlying demand. Growth was led by nonstore retailers, which recorded a 9% annual increase, while food services and drinking places saw sales rise 4.1% year on year, highlighting continued strength in online spending and consumer services.
Chart Study
The chart below illustrates the impact of high-impact U.S. data releases on EUR/USD price action, shown on a 5-minute candlestick chart on 16 December 2025, following the release of Non-Farm Payrolls and Retail Sales data.
Potential Profit Study
On 16 December 2025, EUR/USD opened near 1.17699 and initially moved higher as pre-release positioning lifted the pair to an intraday high of 1.18042. Following the release of U.S. labor market and retail sales data, sentiment shifted in favor of the U.S. dollar, triggering a sharp reversal. As dollar strength increased, EUR/USD turned decisively bearish, falling below its opening level and extending losses to an intraday low of 1.17344. The move from high to low totaled approximately 69.8 pips ($698 USD), highlighting the strong bearish reaction in EUR/USD as markets repriced the data and reinforced U.S. dollar demand.
Last edited:
NZ
GB
