AUDUSD Daily Analysis

[FXGlory Ltd]

AUDUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 04.01.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, AUD/USD traders should closely monitor key economic events affecting both currencies. USD volatility is expected as Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin addresses monetary policy and economic outlook, which could influence market expectations about future interest rate decisions. Additionally, the release of significant economic data, including the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, and JOLTS Job Openings, will provide crucial insights into the health of the US economy, potentially impacting USD strength. For AUD, important events include retail sales data and commodity price changes, crucial for gauging Australia's economic health and the strength of the Australian dollar.


Price Action:
The AUD-USD H4 chart currently indicates a bearish market environment. The price recently found strong horizontal support, and a clear pin bar formation emerged at this support zone. Following the pin bar, a bullish green candle appeared, suggesting a potential move upwards toward the resistance level above for retesting. Currently, the price is near the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands, supporting the potential for an upward price correction toward resistance levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands indicator on the AUD-USD H4 chart suggests the possibility of a corrective move, as the price touched the lower band. Typically, price action tends to revert towards the middle band after such scenarios. Additionally, the bands have widened significantly, implying high volatility, and may contract soon, potentially coinciding with price stabilization or consolidation.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are positioned above the price, highlighting the continuation of bearish sentiment. However, a narrowing gap between price action and these dots could soon signal a reversal if bullish momentum strengthens.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently, the RSI indicator shows a reading of around 35, approaching oversold conditions. This reading signals weakening bearish momentum and suggests potential bullish corrective action in the near term.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram shows decreasing bearish momentum, indicating that sellers are losing control. A bullish crossover signal could appear soon, supporting upward corrective price action.
Williams %R: Williams %R has risen from extreme oversold territory (-70), suggesting buyers are regaining strength. A continued move upward from this level could further validate bullish sentiment.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate horizontal support for AUD/USD is clearly established at around 0.62370, evidenced by recent price action and pin bar formation.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is identified around the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement at approximately 0.62670. A breakout above this level could target higher resistance areas near the 0.62820 level.


Conclusion and Consideration:
In conclusion, the AUD VS. USD H4 analysis indicates bearish sentiment currently prevails; however, technical indicators strongly support potential bullish corrective action. Traders should closely monitor today's key US and Australian economic releases and Fed speeches for volatility catalysts. Risk management remains critical due to anticipated market sensitivity.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
04.01.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

AUDUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 04.17.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, the AUD/USD pair faces significant volatility from critical economic news releases from Australia and the US. From Australia, employment data, including Employment Change and Unemployment Rate, will be in focus. Better-than-expected employment figures and a lower unemployment rate could strengthen the Australian Dollar, reflecting positive economic health and potentially increased consumer spending. Additionally, the NAB Business Confidence survey provides insights into the sentiment among Australian businesses, serving as a leading indicator for economic activity. On the US side, investors will closely watch the Treasury International Capital (TIC) data, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Residential Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Natural Gas Storage reports. Furthermore, speeches from Federal Reserve officials Michael Barr and Jeffrey Schmid will be scrutinized for signals on future monetary policy direction. Positive US data or hawkish Fed commentary could bolster the US Dollar, impacting AUDUSD price dynamics significantly.


Price Action:
The AUD-USD H4 chart has exhibited bullish momentum after shaping a clear double-bottom pattern, indicating a significant trend reversal. The price has recently breached the lower boundary of its ascending channel and is currently attempting a pullback towards the previously broken support level at 0.62286. At present, price action remains within a key resistance zone. If bullish momentum persists and the resistance is convincingly broken, the next potential target would be the upper boundary of the ascending channel. Conversely, failure to break this resistance could push the pair down to retest the EMA21 line or further down to the key level at 0.62286.


Key Technical Indicators:
EMA 21: The EMA 21 line is currently below the price, providing dynamic support and confirming the ongoing bullish momentum. Traders should watch for interactions with this line as a potential turning point.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots remain below the price candles, indicating bullish sentiment remains intact for now. Traders should look for any flips of SAR dots to signal possible short-term reversals.
RSI: The RSI currently stands at 64.18, indicating moderately bullish momentum without being overbought. This suggests the pair may still have room for further upward movement before encountering significant selling pressure.
MACD: The MACD histogram is positive but declining, hinting at diminishing bullish momentum. Traders should watch closely for a potential bearish crossover, which could signal the onset of a corrective move or bearish reversal.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Immediate dynamic support is at the EMA 21 line, followed by a key support level at 0.62286.
Resistance: Current resistance lies within the range of 0.6370 to 0.6380, coinciding with recent price action highs. Further resistance could be encountered at the upper channel boundary around 0.6400-0.6410.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUD USD pair remains bullish on the H4 timeframe, supported by price action and technical indicators. Traders should closely monitor today's significant USD news events, which are likely to increase volatility and could influence directional moves. If resistance at the 0.6370-0.6380 zone breaks, traders can expect further bullish continuation towards the channel's upper boundary. However, caution is advised due to the weakening MACD momentum and potential fundamental disruptions.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
04.17.2025