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Australia Employment Change June 17 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

There are two main lines of data on this release.

Employment Change, the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month; more employment is positive for the Aussie dollar and would create a buy of AUD pairs.

Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact, a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Aussie Dollar and would create a sell of AUD pairs.

Historic deviations and their outcome

May 20 2021 Some small deviations caused some nice moves, but all over very quickly.

Check out the price action here:

March 18 2021 We got a minus -0.5% positive deviation on Unemployment Rate with complimentary +58k positive deviation on the Employment Change, which gave a great move for the first minute where I banked a few pips here in the first 30 seconds, a great outcome!

Check out the price action here:

February 18 2021 A prime example of why both lines must deviate in the same direction. This time it conflicted between Unemployment Rate and Employment Change which didn't create a move from which I could profit. So I stayed on the sidelines.

Check out the price action here:

I will use forecasts of:

Employment Change 30
Unemployment Rate 5.5

Today's trade plan

The focus today will be on the Unemployment Rate. This is the key metric that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is watching and could affect future monetary policy decisions (Interest rates).

If we get a 0.4% deviation from the forecast Unemployment Rate in either direction with no conflict from Employment Change, then we should see some good moves on AUD pairs.

If both lines deviate harmoniously, we should see a sustained move and rack up a fair amount of pips along the way.

Tradable pairs


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

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