Daily Commodity Analysis By Capital Street fx

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Daily Commodity Analysis – Global uncertainty hits WTI, Natural Gas, Gold, Copper.

Introduction

WTI crude oil faces indecision below $74.00, struggling to extend a two-day uptrend amid mixed fundamentals. Positive demand outlook and Middle East supply worries offer support. Natural gas futures decline for a third day due to warmer weather forecasts and smaller-than-expected withdrawals. Gold remains subdued amidst uncertainty over Fed rate cuts and elevated US bond yields. Copper prices feel the pressure from China's economic weakness, adding to concerns about softened demand in 2024, especially in the electric vehicle sector. Market movements hinge on global economic dynamics and geopolitical tensions.

Markets In Focus Today – CRUDE OIL

WTI Lacks Firm Intraday Direction, Remains Below $74.00 Mark Amid Mixed Fundamental Cues.

WTI Oil prices struggle to attract follow-through buying and consolidate during the Asian session on Friday. Optimistic demand forecasts and concerns over disruptions in Middle East supplies lend support to Oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices struggle to build on a two-day-old uptrend and oscillate in a narrow trading band during the Asian session on Friday. The commodity remains below the $74.00/barrel mark, though remains on track to register modest weekly gains in the wake of optimistic demand forecasts. Meanwhile, concerns over disruptions in Middle East supplies remained in play as the US-led forces continue to clash with the Iran-backed Houthi group in the Red Sea.

Technical Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

• MA 10 : 72.97 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 72.86 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 74.52 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

• MA 10 : 72.54 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20 : 72.75 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50 : 73.64 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

RSI (Relative Strength Index) : 54.25 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic Oscillator : 74.37 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Resistance And Support Levels :

• R1 : 75.38 R2 : 77.52
• S1 : 68.47 S2 : 66.33

Overall Sentiment : Neutral Market Direction : Buy

Trade Suggestion : Limit Buy : 73.81 | Take Profit : 76.40 | Stop Loss : 72.36

NATURAL GAS

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Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold uncertain pre-GDP, copper soars on China stimulus, oil rallies.

Introduction

Gold prices face volatility ahead of GDP data, grappling with steep losses as U.S. economic cues and interest rate uncertainties deter traders. Meanwhile, copper gains momentum following China's additional stimulus measures. Gold declined 0.7% on Wednesday amid anticipation of crucial U.S. GDP and inflation data, with growing expectations of a delayed Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Copper, boosted by China's reserve requirement ratio cut, sits at a three-week high. Oil prices rise on a significant U.S. crude stock draw and optimism from China's stimulus actions. Natural gas experiences a short-covering rally, influenced by oversold conditions and domestic supply-demand factors.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

Gold Prices Were Skittish Before GDP Data.

Gold prices nursed steep losses on Thursday as anticipation of a barrage of U.S. economic and interest rate cues kept traders averse to the yellow metal, while copper sat on strong gains this week following more stimulus measures from China. Bullion prices had fallen 0.7% on Wednesday, largely disregarding some weakness in the dollar as anticipation of key U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation data brewed more uncertainty over interest rates. The yellow metal was battered by increasing bets that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates later, instead of earlier this year.

Technical Overview With Chart :

1024×343 72.6 KB

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

• MA 10 : 2024.34 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2029.35 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 2019.58 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

• MA 10 : 2026.81 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2034.64 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 2029.01 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 44.54 | Neutral Zone | Neutral

Stochastic Oscillator : 27.68 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :

• R1 : 2127.21 R2 : 2168.19
• S1 : 1994.53 S2 : 1953.54

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 2020.02 | Take Profit: 1988.37 | Stop Loss: 2038.34

COPPER

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Weekly Commodity Analysis – Gold dips, Copper rallies, Oil soars, Gas falters.

Introduction

Gold (XAU/USD) closes the week with a slight dip, hovering just above $2,018, marking a 0.55% weekly loss. Key indicators show subdued buying momentum, reflecting a pause after December's rally. Meanwhile, the USD's recovery, driven by changing bets on the Federal Reserve, exerts downward pressure. Copper prices ease, but a strong week is expected amid China optimism. Oil settles at an eight-week high, fueled by robust U.S. economic growth and Chinese stimulus, while natural gas faces declines due to storage dynamics, production fluctuations, and lighter demand forecasts.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

XAU/USD Trades Mildly Lower And Closes A Losing Week After US PCE Figures.

The XAU/USD experiences a slight decrease, holding slightly above $2,018 with a minor pullback. Key indicators such as RSI and MACD demonstrate a subdued buying momentum, as bulls consolidate December's rally. On Friday's session, the XAU/USD was seen trading at $2,018, presenting a slight decline of 0.08% and closing a 0.55% weekly loss. After reaching a level of $2,135 in December, buyers have been largely taking a pause, suggesting a neutral to a bullish outlook on the daily chart. Despite some momentum observed in the four-hour chart, the indicators remain relatively weak. In addition, the USD recovery fueled by markets adjusting their bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) due to the US economy showing resilience is pushing the metal lower.

Technical Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

• MA 10 : 2024.17 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2028.83 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 2019.76 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

• MA 10 : 2024.37 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2032.74 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 2029.89 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 46.09 | Buy Zone | Bullish
Stochastic Oscillator : 25.67 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :

• R1 : 2127.21 R2 : 2168.19
• S1 : 1994.53 S2 : 1953.54

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 2023.48 | Take Profit: 1984.79 | Stop Loss: 2049.27

COPPER

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Daily Commodity Analysis – Gold down, Copper crisis, Oil up, Gas struggles.

Introduction

"As Gold struggles near a two-month low, the stronger-than-expected US CPI data diminishes hopes of a Fed rate cut, keeping the precious metal below $2,000. Meanwhile, copper faces pressure from a stronger dollar and concerns over slowing economic growth, exacerbated by a massive deposit discovery in Zambia. Oil prices rise on positive demand forecasts, while natural gas languishes due to warmer weather predictions reducing heating demand."

Markets In Focus Today – Gold

Gold Price Struggles Near Two-Month Low As Hot US CPI Temper Fed Rate Cut Bets.

Gold price hits a fresh two-month low amid bets that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer. The expectations were reaffirmed by the stronger-than-expected US CPI released on Tuesday. A softer risk tone lends support to the safe-haven XAU/USD and helps limit any further losses. Gold price (XAU/USD) continues with its struggle to attract buyers and languishes below the $2,000 psychological mark, or a two-month low through the early European session on Monday. The stronger-than-expected US consumer inflation report released on Tuesday reaffirmed market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer. This, in turn, is seen undermining the non-yielding yellow metal, though a combination of factors lends some support and helps limit the downside.

Technical Overview With Chart :

1024×342 73.8 KB

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

• MA 10 : 2017.0634 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2023.9850 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 2022.0886 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

• MA 10 : 2025.0466 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2025.6890 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 2032.2712 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 35.7932 | Sell Zone | Bearish

Stochastic Oscillator : 8.4879 | Sell Zone | Negative

Resistance And Support Levels :

• R1 : 2069.3797 R2 : 2087.5470
• S1 : 2010.5670 S2 : 1992.3997

Overall Sentiment: Bearish Market Direction: Sell

Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1994.62 | Take Profit: 1972.58 | Stop Loss: 2009.82

COPPER

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Weekly Commodity Analysis – Gold highs, silver shines, oil soars.

Introduction

Gold, represented by XAU/USD, surged to a three-day high at $2015 amid rising inflation concerns and signals from the Federal Reserve. The softer Dollar and higher US Treasury yields contribute to the precious metal's appeal. Meanwhile, silver resiliently heads for a positive weekly close, distinguishing itself from gold's projected negative week-end. In the energy sector, oil prices climb on Middle East tensions, while Natural Gas faces sustained downward pressure with potential implications for long-term pricing. The US Dollar Index strengthens with favorable Producer Price Index (PPI) outcomes.

Markets In Focus Today – GOLD

XAU/USD Hits Three-Day High Amid Inflation Concerns, Fed's Policy Signals.

Gold hits $2015, benefiting from a softer Dollar and higher US Treasury yields amid persistent inflation signs PPI and Core PPI surpass forecasts, indicating ongoing inflation and complicating the Fed's targets. Hints of future rate cuts from Fed officials sway market outlook, enhancing gold's attractiveness as a hedge against policy ambiguity. Gold price extended its gains for two straight days, hitting a three-day high at $2015 as the Greenback tumbled, despite US Treasury yields rising. US economic data suggests inflation is stickier than expected, though Federal Reserve's officials opened the door to ease policy.

Technical Overview With Chart :

Moving Averages :

Exponential :

• MA 10 : 2014.7705 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2021.4628 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 2021.1641 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

Simple :

• MA 10 : 2017.6327 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 20 : 2024.0798 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50 : 2032.0209 | Negative Crossover | Bearish

RSI (Relative Strength Index): 45.9342 | Buy Zone | Bullish

Stochastic Oscillator : 43.41 | Neutral Zone | Positive

Resistance And Support Levels :

• R1 : 2069.3797 R2 : 2087.5470
• S1 : 2010.5670 S2 : 1992.3997

Overall Sentiment: Neutral Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion: Stop Buy: 2016.45 | Take Profit: 2048.10 | Stop Loss: 1997.69

SILVER

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