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Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

AUD/USD and NZD/USD Remain At Risk of More Downsides


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AUD/USD started a fresh decline from well above the 0.7550 level. NZD/USD also declined heavily and it even tested the 0.6920 support zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD



  • The Aussie Dollar started a major decline after it failed to clear 0.7600 against the US Dollar.
  • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7435 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
  • NZD/USD also started a major decline from well above the 0.7050 level.
  • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.6975 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

After struggling to clear the 0.7600 resistance, the Aussie Dollar started a major decline against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair broke the 0.7550 and 0.7520 support levels to move into a bearish zone.

The pair even broke the 0.7480 support and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It spiked below 0.7420 and traded as low as 0.7409 on FXOpen. It is now consolidating losses above the 0.7400 level.

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An immediate resistance is near the 0.7430 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.7533 swing high to 0.7409 low. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7435 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.

The next major resistance is near the 0.7465 level and the 50 hourly SMA. The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.7533 swing high to 0.7409 low is also near the 0.7470 level.

To move into a positive zone, the pair must settle above 0.7470 and the 50 hourly SMA. An initial support on the downside is near the 0.7410 level. The next major support is near the 0.7400 level. If there is a downside break below the 0.7400 support, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.7350 level.




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GBP/USD Recovers Ground, USD/CAD is Facing Uphill Task

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GBP/USD started a decent recovery wave from the 1.3750 support zone. USD/CAD must clear the 1.2500 resistance zone to continue higher in the near term.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD



  • The British Pound started a fresh increase from the 1.3750 support zone.
  • There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3775 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
  • USD/CAD gained bullish momentum above the 1.2450 and 1.2500 resistance levels.
  • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2480 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound formed a strong support base above the 1.3750 level against the US Dollar. As a result, the GBP/USD pair started a decent increase and it broke many hurdles near 1.3800.

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There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3775 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The pair gained pace above the 1.3820 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

The pair even spiked above the 1.3900 resistance zone. A high is formed near 1.3909 on FXOpen and the pair is now consolidating gains. An initial support on the downside is near the 1.3875 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3755 swing low to 1.3909 high.

The main support is now forming near the 1.3830 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3755 swing low to 1.3909 high.

On the upside, the pair must settle above the 1.3900 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.3940 level. Any more gains could lead the pair towards the 1.4000 barrier in the near term. An intermediate resistance could be 1.3980.




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Jason

New member
GBP/USD Recovers Ground, USD/CAD is Facing Uphill Task

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GBP/USD started a decent recovery wave from the 1.3750 support zone. USD/CAD must clear the 1.2500 resistance zone to continue higher in the near term.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD



  • The British Pound started a fresh increase from the 1.3750 support zone.
  • There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3775 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
  • USD/CAD gained bullish momentum above the 1.2450 and 1.2500 resistance levels.
  • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2480 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound formed a strong support base above the 1.3750 level against the US Dollar. As a result, the GBP/USD pair started a decent increase and it broke many hurdles near 1.3800.

gbpusd-chart-30.png


There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3775 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The pair gained pace above the 1.3820 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

The pair even spiked above the 1.3900 resistance zone. A high is formed near 1.3909 on FXOpen and the pair is now consolidating gains. An initial support on the downside is near the 1.3875 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3755 swing low to 1.3909 high.

The main support is now forming near the 1.3830 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3755 swing low to 1.3909 high.

On the upside, the pair must settle above the 1.3900 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.3940 level. Any more gains could lead the pair towards the 1.4000 barrier in the near term. An intermediate resistance could be 1.3980.




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nice analysis but I am looking for gbpusd to reach down to 1.37mids before i go long in it.
 
Bitcoin Gives Back Its 2021 Gains – What Next?

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Bitcoin started the year around $30,000, and now the level acts as support. The euphoria surrounding the cryptocurrency market ended with a 50% decline in the price of Bitcoin and, in some cases, with more.

In the first quarter of the year, Tesla announced that it invested $1.5 billion into Bitcoin. Moreover, it said that it would accept payments for its vehicles in Bitcoin.

The announcement led to massive buying into the crypto space as numerous altcoins entered the bullish territory. As such, Bitcoin rose from $30,000 to over $60,000.

Investors viewed Tesla’s announcement as a sign of further adoption of the cryptocurrencies, thus the bullish run. However, a couple of months later, Tesla announced it had sold some of its Bitcoin holdings and booked a profit just before the end of the first quarter. In fact, the company made a profit on the quarter only from selling carbon credits and some of its Bitcoin holding.

Shortly after the second quarter started, Tesla, through the voice of its CEO, Elon Musk, expressed its concerns about the energy use of mining Bitcoin. As such, it stopped accepting Bitcoin as payment for Tesla cars, but it is unclear if the company sold any of its remaining Bitcoin.
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Tesla Q2 Earnings – Key for Future Price Action in Bitcoin

It is unclear if Tesla sold any of its remaining Bitcoin or not, but investors will find out pretty soon. The Q2 2021 earnings season starts now, and investors will look for clues about the company’s crypt holding. If Tesla sold more of its Bitcoin at the higher levels, the bias is that the market will test below $30,000.

From a technical perspective, the market seems to have formed a head and shoulders pattern. Even the fact that the global Bitcoin mining energy use is comparatively negligible does not matter anymore, as the market is unable to bounce.

Moreover, further investments from companies such as MicroStrategy, which announced over $1.5 billion invested in Bitcoin in the second quarter alone, were not enough to lift the price of Bitcoin.

To sum up, if there is one critical event for Bitcoin in the weeks ahead, it is the Tesla Q2 2021 earnings. Any changes in the company’s crypto portfolio may move the market.




FXOpen Blog
 
EUR/USD Remains At Risk, USD/CHF Eyes Larger Increase


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EUR/USD declined heavily below 1.1900 and it tested 1.1770. USD/CHF is rising and it could gain momentum if it manages to clear the 0.9200 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF



  • The Euro started a fresh decline from well above the 1.1900 zone against the US Dollar.
  • There was a break below a major contracting triangle with support near 1.1855 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • USD/CHF started a fresh increase after it found support near 0.9123.
  • There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 0.9168 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro struggled to gain pace above the 1.1900 level and it started a major decline against the US Dollar. As a result, the EUR/USD pair broke the 1.1850 support zone to move into a bearish zone.

The pair even declined below the 1.1820 support zone and settled below the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was also a break below a major contracting triangle with support near 1.1855 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

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A low was formed near 1.1772 on FXOpen and the pair is now consolidating losses. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.1795 level.

It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent drop from the 1.1875 high to 1.1772 low. If there is an upside break above the 1.1800 resistance zone, the price could recover steadily towards the 1.1825 resistance zone.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent drop from the 1.1875 high to 1.1772 low is also near 1.1825. Any more gains might call for a test of 1.1850.

On the downside, there is a major support forming near the 1.1770 zone. A downside break below the 1.1770 support could start another decline. The next major support could be near the 1.1710 level.




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Crypto investors are looking for reasons to be optimistic


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The market has entered a consolidation zone after the anomalous activity of May 19, with fluctuations framed by a narrowing triangle formation. Currently, no significant news reports are affecting the market, and the volumes are fading. This situation is reminiscent of the calm before the storm. What will the storm be like and when will it happen?

Optimists are looking for arguments that would signify a resuming growth. Analysts point to the outflow of bitcoins from cryptocurrency exchanges (see fig. 2), as evidenced by data (see fig. 1) collected by the Glassnode agency. Blue arrows on the chart indicate that previous outflows occurred against the backdrop of rising quotes. Therefore, the current outflow, according to analysts, could be a bullish harbinger.

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But digging deeper, we will find out that this was not always the case. A similar outflow occurred during the lull in the first half of November 2018. And in the second half, a bearish storm occurred, and BTCUSD collapsed from 6400 to 3200.

Volume analysis does give cause for concern. On July 11, there was a growth attempt (see fig. 3), but the volumes were low, which indicates a possible shortage of buyers. The next day, July 12, confirms the weakness of demand, as the price decreased on growing volumes, which can be interpreted as active selling pressure. It seems that negative sentiment prevails in the market, as participants are actively selling the coin instead of buying. If so, then the price of 33,500 is too high for BTC.

In such conditions, the fate of a psychological support level of 30k causes more and more concerns.




FXOpen Blog
 
LTC and EOS – Upside expected but could be correctional


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LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin was on the rise from yesterday and came up by 6% from its low of $124.3 to $131.8 at its highest point today. We have seen a minor pullback to $127.6 and currently it started moving to the upside again.

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On the hourly chart, you can see that yesterday’s low was the third lower low from the 29th of Jun. This could have marked the completion of the corrective ABC structure after a five-wave impulse from the 22nd of Jun. If this is true then the price is now set to continue moving to the upside in an impulsive manner.

Another possibility could be that the price made a three-wave increase from the 22nd till the 29th in which case we have seen a corrective ABCDE after, but in both cases, the price would be expected to continue moving higher. Either as the continuation of the corrective WXY of the higher degree in a negative scenario or the 3rd wave from the five-wave impulse in a positive one.

The pullback seen from yesterday is most likely the 2nd sub-wave of starting move to the upside so shortly a breakout would be expected from the descending resistance level and a higher high compared to yesterday’s one. Moving forward we are going to see from the price action which scenario is going to get validated.




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Gold Price Could Extend Gains While Crude Oil Price Corrects Lower


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Gold price started a decent recovery wave above the $1,820 resistance. Crude oil price is declining and it might even break the $70.00 support zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil



  • Gold price started a fresh recovery wave after forming a base above $1,790 against the US Dollar.
  • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,825 on the hourly chart of gold.
  • Crude oil price failed to settle above $75.000 and it started a fresh decline.
  • There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near $74.55 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

This week, gold price formed a decent support base above the $1,790 zone against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh upward move and it surpassed the $1,800 resistance zone.

The price even settled above the $1,810 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The price even broke the $1,820 resistance and it traded as high as $1,833 on FXOpen. Recently, there was a minor downside correction below the $1,830 level.

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The price even traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,791 low to $1,833 high. However, the bulls are protecting the $1,820 support.

There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,825 on the hourly chart of gold. The 50 hourly SMA is also near the trend line. If there is a downside break, the price could test the $1,810 support.

An intermediate support could be the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,791 low to $1,833 high at $1,812. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $1,832 level.

The first major resistance is near the $1,835 level. If the price breaks the $1,835 level, it could accelerate higher. In the stated case, the price could rise towards the $1,850 zone.




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GBP/USD and EUR/GBP: British Pound Remains At Risk


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GBP/USD started a steady decline below the 1.3900 zone. EUR/GBP is rising and it might continue to rise if it breaks the 0.8600 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP



  • The British Pound failed to recover above the key 1.3900 resistance zone.
  • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3855 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
  • EUR/GBP started a fresh increase after it found a strong support near the 0.8500 zone.
  • There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.8550 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound made many attempts to clear the 1.3900 and 1.3910 resistance levels against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair started a major decline and it settled below the 1.3850 pivot level.

The pair even broke the 1.3800 support level and it settled below the 50 hourly simple moving average. The recent low was formed near 1.3746 and the pair is now showing a lot of bearish signs.

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An immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.3775 level. The 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3861 swing high to 1.3746 low. The first major resistance is now forming near the 1.3800 zone.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3861 swing high to 1.3746 low is also near the 1.3800 zone. The next major resistance near the 1.3820 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3855 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. To move into a positive zone, the pair must clear the bearish trend line and then 1.3900.

An immediate support on the downside is near the 1.3745 level. A downside break below the 1.3745 level might call for a fresh decline towards the 1.3700 level. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 1.3650 level in the near term.




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Rising US Inflation Supports the Bullish Case for Gold


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Last week, two events dominated the price action in financial markets – the US inflation and Fed Chair Powell’s semiannual testimony. Both brought a new perspective to market participants, but summer trading conditions eventually prevailed.

Namely, despite the rising inflation environment and the market-moving statements from the Fed Chair, the market did not move much. It is typical for the market to consolidate during the summer months, and so July and August are known as months with declining volatility.

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Rising Inflation – Bullish for Gold and Equities

The US inflation data for the month of June showed inflation surging. It reached 5.4% YoY, much higher than expectations. In fact, inflation in the United States did not reach such levels for at least three decades.

Traders should remember that last year, in August, the Fed shifted its price stability mandate. It moved from targeting 2% to averaging 2% inflation. Therefore, higher inflation above 2% is not quite a concern for the Fed because we do not know what it is the period used for averaging.

In other words, if the Fed considers the last 12 months or more, then inflation is likely to be below the 2% AIT (Average Inflation Targeting) target. Because of that, the semiannual testimony that the Fed Chair held last week was critical for understanding how the Fed views inflation.

Fed Powell admitted that the central bank is surprised by how hot inflation is running, but he reiterated the fact that the Fed views it as transitory. We will find out further down the road if that is true or not.

In the meantime, with inflation at 5.4% and the US 10-Year Treasury yield at 1.3%, we talk about a negative 4.1% real yields. Therefore, investors are forced to look for alternatives.

One is gold. Commodities have typically served against higher inflation and this time should be no different. The price of gold, therefore, traded with a bid tone last week, rising from below $1,800 at the time inflation data was released, to over $1,830 before giving back some gains.

Another is the stock market. The US equities have outperformed their peers and keep trading close to their highs. The earnings season started strong, with financial services corporations posting strong earnings for the second quarter. If the trend continues, funds will keep pouring into the stock market.

All in all, rising inflation bodes well for gold and equities. The next thing to monitor is the tapering of the asset purchases from the Fed. It may be announced as soon as the Jackson Hole Symposium in August, if inflation keeps rising.






FXOpen Blog
 
BTC and XRP – Once again moving to the downside


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BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoin has been falling downwards and made a decrease of 9.14% from Sunday’s high of $32,289 to its lowest point today at $29,336. It has broken the significant horizontal support zone and is currently interacting with the descending support level from the channel in which it was since the ending days of May.

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On the hourly chart, you can see that this is another downfall back to its lows of the 26th of June and is eyeing out the one on the 22nd. This downward trajectory is the continuation of the descending triangle from the start of July which was broken on the downside today. This area is still considered as support so we might see a bounce for another minor recovery but the picture still looks bearish with the price most likely headed further down in the upcoming period.

If this last descending support breaks the price will move further down and with no significant support close it could continue moving to the $18,000 zone where the next one is. This would be expected in either way but potentially these low levels would be viewed as a good buying opportunity for some, which can lead to a minor recovery first.




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EUR/USD Remains At Risk, USD/JPY Eyes More Upsides


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EUR/USD started a major decline and it traded below 1.1800. USD/JPY is attempting an upside break above the 110.00 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY



  • The Euro is facing an increase in selling pressure below the 1.1800 level.
  • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1800 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • USD/JPY started a fresh increase after it found support near the 109.10 zone.
  • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 110.00 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

After a close below 1.1850, the Euro started a major decline against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair gained bearish momentum and it broke the 1.1820 support zone.

The pair settled below the 1.1800 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded as low as 1.1755 on FXOpen and the pair is still showing a lot of bearish signs. Recently, there was a minor upside correction above 1.1770.

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The pair surpassed the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1825 high to 1.1755 low. It is now facing resistance near the 1.1780 level.

The first key resistance is 1.1790 zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1825 high to 1.1755 low. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1800 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

A close above 1.1780 and 1.1800 could open the doors for a steady increase. If not, the pair might continue to move down below 1.1765. An intermediate support is near the 1.1755 level.

The next major support is near the 1.1750 level, below which the pair could drop towards the 1.1700 support in the near term.




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LTC and EOS – Higher high expected before the completion of this rise


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LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin has been on the rise from Tuesday’s low of $104 and made an increase of 13.86% as it came up to $118.8 today. Since then we have seen some sideways movement but the price is in an upward trajectory overall.

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Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that this increase is counted as the starting impulse from the new count which is why now a higher high would be expected. The sideways movement we’ve seen is in that case the 4th wave and is likely going to end as a flat correction, establishing support above the 0.786 Fib level.

If this is true, then the price is now set to continue moving to the upside for a higher high which would be the end of this first impulsive move after which a retracement would be expected of the same degree. But the price would then be expected to continue moving upward for at least one more wave if this is an ABC to the upside. If this is the 1st sub-wave of the higher degree impulsive move then we are to see even higher levels of the price of Litecoin in the upcoming period, potentially above the $150.




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GBP/USD and GBP/JPY: British Pound Could Gain Strength


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GBP/USD started a fresh increase after a drop to 1.3580. Similarly, GBP/JPY started a decent increase and it broke the 151.00 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY



  • The British Pound traded as low as 1.3571 before climbing higher against the US Dollar.
  • There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3700 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
  • GBP/JPY also climbed higher above the 150.00 and 151.00 resistance levels.
  • There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 150.15 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, there was a strong decline in the British Pound below the 1.3800 level against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair even broke the 1.3700 and 1.3650 support levels.

It traded as low as 1.3571 on FXOpen before it started a fresh increase. There was a steady upward move above the 1.3650 resistance level. The price surpassed the 1.3680 resistance level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

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There was also a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3700 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The pair is now trading nicely above the 1.3750 level.

It traded as high as 1.3798 before correcting lower. There was a break below the 1.3760 level. The pair tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 1.3571 low to 1.3798 high. It is now trading inside a contracting triangle with resistance near 1.3760.

A clear break above the triangle resistance could set the pace for a larger increase above 1.3780. The next key resistance is near 1.3800, above which the pair could rise towards the 1.3880 level.

On the downside, an initial support is near the 1.3735 level and the 50 hourly SMA. If there is a break below the 1.3735 support, the pair could test the 1.3700 support. If there are additional losses, the pair could decline towards the 1.3650 level.




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Crucial Week Ahead for USD Traders


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The week ahead is decisive for USD traders as three main events will dominate financial markets – the FOMC Meeting, the Advance GDP, and the Core PCE Price Index.

Last Thursday, the European Central Bank revised its forward guidance on interest rates to reflect the new strategy. It delivered a more dovish forward guidance, but the euro did not react. Summer trading conditions, plus the fear of a wrong positioning ahead of the important US data next week, resulted in tight market ranges.

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FOMC Statement and Press Conference to Move the USD

This week it is all about the FOMC Statement and how the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivers the Fed’s message. He will likely reiterate that the tapering of asset purchases, currently running at $120 billion/month, is still far away into the distant future.

But inflation is pressuring the Fed. The sharp rise in inflation, and specifically in house prices, will likely pressure the Fed into sticking to its tapering prospects.

The market expects that the Fed will announce the tapering of its asset purchases in December this year and to effectively start the process in January 2022. A possible rate hike is seen only in December 2023, and so the short to medium-term focus is on tapering.

This coming Wednesday, the market participants will focus on how the Fed sees the Delta variant and the possible impact on the economy.

US Advance GDP

The US economy is expected to have grown by 8.5% in the second quarter. The report, released Thursday, will show the degree of economic reopening and how the fiscal and monetary stimulus has impacted the recovery.

The Fed will likely choose to stay deliberately behind the curve. Yet, there is room to surprise markets by, say, announcing the tapering decision at the August Jackson Hole meeting. The only way the Fed will do that would be for inflation to overshoot the target even more.

Core PCE Price Index

On Friday, the Core PCE Price Index in the United States is expected at 0.6% MoM, but the bias is that we will see a higher print. Given the sharp rise in inflation lately, which is running at rates not seen since four decades ago, the market expects inflation to keep rising. Supply bottlenecks caused by the economic reopening are the cause for the sharp increase in prices.

All in all, the week ahead is critical for the USD traders. Now that the ECB decision is behind, the focus will be on the USD, seen as having more room to gain against the euro and the Swiss franc.




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