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Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

FXOpen Trader

Well-known member
GBP rises to 1.21 against USD in bizarre twist
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A reduction in inflation is a good thing, is it not?

Surely when a national economy previously blighted by what appeared to be runaway inflation suddenly gets back on track and the inflation figure falls dramatically, this would be the sign of strengthening and therefore have a positive effect on the national sovereign currency?

In the case of the United States economy and the United States Dollar, quite the opposite appears to be the case.

The US Dollar has spent the majority of this year demonstrating remarkable strength against a floundering British Pound and almost equally floundering Euro, despite all of North America, Britain and mainland Europe being subject to similar levels of surging inflation.

The US Dollar held firmer because of the greater productivity which took place in the US economy during the past 2 years compared to all-encompassing lockdowns in Europe and the United Kingdom = by contrast only parts of the United States were subject to lockdowns - and the United States' overall return to productivity soon after that charade finished.

However, in terms of inflation levels, both continents on each side of the Atlantic had experienced almost double-digit inflation which was then countered by central bank intervention in the form of several interest rate rises.

Just last week, however, the United States inflation figure was recorded as having dropped to 7.7% whereas the United Kingdom's is now around 11% and rising, with potential interest rate figures of a projected 5% looking likely by early 2023.

Despite this, however, the US Dollar has actually declined in value compared to the British Pound, and the Pound is now making some headway after a long period of depreciation. This morning, the GBPUSD pair is trading at 1.21, which is a substantial increase over the 1.18 of last week.

One theory is that investors may be looking at some early indications that US inflation may finally be easing, potentially paving the way for the Federal Reserve (US central bank) to reduce the speed at which it has been boosting borrowing costs, therefore indicating that consumers may start borrowing again and in a period of economic difficulty, that would add to the nation's overall liabilities.

Conversely, many mortgage lenders in the United Kingdom have removed products from their range, making it much harder for people to get mortgages as the potential increase in interest rates which is predicted for next year is outside the risk management scope of retail mortgage lenders.

In short - they are worried that borrowers may not be able to afford the payments if the interest rate rises sharply.

Overall, keeping borrowing down is a prudent policy during times of economic difficulties.

Perhaps that is why the Pound suddenly struck back against the US Dollar. One thing's for sure, it is not because of any sudden prowess in the British money market; that is still in the doldrums and blighted by cost of living crises and high inflation.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.
 

FXOpen Trader

Well-known member
Crypto lender's demise sends fears into digital markets
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The unsurprising fall out from the catastrophic and high profile demise of cryptocurrency exchange FTX has begun to make its presence felt.

At the end of the working day in the United States, it became publicly known that BlockFi, a commercial lending company which was founded in 2017 to provide credit services to markets with limited access to simple financial products, had gone bankrupt.

At one point in its five-year lifespan, BlockFi was valued at an astronomical $3 billion, however, like so many components of the modern economy, BlockFi has gone from startup to billion-dollar hyperbole, to ashes in just 5 years.

BlockFi announced earlier this month that it had halted withdrawals, citing “significant exposure” to the FTX exchange in the immediate aftermath of its demise. What that really means is that BlockFi had borrowed money from FTX, and when FTX went to the wall, BlockFi's assets became the interest of receivers.

This has represented yet another dark day for the digital asset sector, and this time has highlighted how it is not just cryptocurrency exchanges with unscrupulous owners that can collapse like a house of cards, but also others offering bona fide financial services such as lending, which can have their lives claimed because the board of directors put its faith in individuals such as Sam Bankman-Fried.

The result of this news is that Bitcoin had dipped in value once again over night, but interestingly it is now rising in value as the European markets opened this morning.

Bitcoin now stands at just a touch over $16,450, but certainly there has been some volatile movement this morning due to the 'sailing close to the wind' nature that BlockFi has demonstrated.

It may well be easy to blame BlockFi's demise on its dealings with FTX, but actually BlockFi had already shown signs of financial strife before Mr Bankman-Fried headed for the hills with his customers' money.

Back in the summer of this year, BlockFi ran into financial trouble and managed to secure a $250 million emergency funding from FTX.

Because BlockFi owed FTX this sum, the receivers moved in on BlockFi when FTX went bankrupt. At that time, Mark Renzi of Berkley Research Group stated in a corporate announcement “With the collapse of FTX, the BlockFi management team and board of directors immediately took action to protect clients and the Company.”

BlockFi revealed in its Chapter 11 petition that its three largest creditor claims are a $729 million indenture from Ankura Trust, a distressed loan administration company, a $275 million loan from West Realm Shires, the holding company for FTX’s US subsidiary, as well as a $30 million settlement payment to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Big debts and a big bankruptcy. The question remains, is it a buyers market right now, or are the bears still out in force?

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.
 

FXOpen Trader

Well-known member
BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 29th NOV 2022
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BTCUSD: Bullish Engulfing Pattern Above $15510

Bitcoin was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of 15510 on 21st Nov, the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar crossing the $16500 handle today in the European trading session.

The price of bitcoin continues to rise after the recent crash and now we are looking to cross the $17000 handle soon.

We can see the formation of bullish engulfing lines in the daily time frame.

The CCI indicator is giving a bullish divergence signal in the daily time frame.

We can clearly see a bullish engulfing pattern above the $15510 handle which is a bullish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

Bitcoin touched an intraday low of 16124 in the Asian trading session and an intraday high of 16536 in the European trading session today.

Both the STOCH and STOCHRSI are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

The relative strength index is at 63 indicating a STRONG demand for bitcoin, and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

Bitcoin is now moving above its 100 hourly simple moving average and 200 hourly exponential moving average.

Most of the major technical indicators are giving a STRONG BUY signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 17000 and 17500.

The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility with a strong bullish momentum.

  • Bitcoin: a bullish reversal seen above $15510
  • The Williams percent range is indicating an overbought level
  • The price is now trading above its pivot level of $16509
  • All of the moving averages are giving a STRONG BUY market signal

Bitcoin: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $15510
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We can now see that the price of Bitcoin is moving in a strong bullish momentum and we are expecting more upside waves this week.

The Williams percent range indicator is back over -50 indicating a bullish scenario in the daily time frame.

The MACD has crossed UP its moving average in the 4-hour time frame indicating bullish trends.

We can see the formation of a bullish price crossover pattern with an adaptive moving average AMA100 in the 4-hour time frame.

The price of bitcoin is ranging near the support of the channel in the 15-minute time frame indicating a bullish trend.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is strongly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $16155 which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 20%.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic resistance level of 16536 and Fibonacci resistance level of 16550 after which the path towards 17000 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has increased by 1.92% by 310$, and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 26.099 billion. We can see an increase of 3.95% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

The price of Bitcoin is expected to enter the super bullish zone above the $17000 handle. There is an ascending channel forming with current support at $15510 on the hourly chart of BTCUSD.

We can see that the MACD indicator is back over zero in the 2-hour time frame indicating the bullish scenario present in the markets.

The daily RSI is printing at 41 which indicates a weaker demand for bitcoin and the possibility of a shift towards the consolidation/correction phase for a short term in the markets.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its resistance zone at $17113 which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 50%.

The weekly outlook is projected at $17500 with a consolidation zone of $17000.

Technical Indicators:

The moving averages convergence divergence, MACD (12,26): is at 48.30 indicating a BUY

The commodity channel index, CCI (14): is at 93.27 indicating a BUY

The rate of price change, ROC: is at 1.537 indicating a BUY

The bull/bear power (13): is at 217.36 indicating a BUY

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.
 

FXOpen Trader

Well-known member
EUR/USD Correct Gains While EUR/JPY Faces Key Hurdle
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EUR/USD is gaining pace above the 1.0000 resistance. EUR/JPY is also rising and might climb further higher above the 147.00 zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

  • The Euro started a downside correction from the 1.0500 resistance zone.
  • There is a key declining channel forming with support near 1.0310 on the hourly chart.
  • EUR/JPY started a strong decline and settled below the 144.50 support zone.
  • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 144.15 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro formed a base above the 1.0200 zone and started recovery wave against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair was able to clear the 1.0320 and 1.0400 resistance levels.

There was a clear move above the 1.0420 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even climbed above 1.0450 and traded as high as 1.0496. It is now correcting gains below the 1.0450 level.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart
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There was a drop below the 1.0350 level and the pair traded as low as 1.0319. On the downside, the pair might find support near the 1.0320 level. Besides, there is a key declining channel forming with support near 1.0310 on the hourly chart.

The next major support sits near the 1.0265 level, below which the pair could even test the 1.0220 support zone. If there is a downside break below the 1.0220 support, the pair might accelerate lower in the coming sessions. In the stated case, it could even test 1.0150.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 1.0375 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.0400 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0496 swing high to 1.0319 low. The main resistance is near the 1.0450 level.

A clear move above the 1.0450 resistance might send the price towards 1.0500. If the bulls remain in action, the pair could visit the 1.0550 resistance zone in the near term.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.
 

FXOpen Trader

Well-known member
Bitcoin responds positively as Brazil welcomes crypto payments
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Within Latin America, Brazil has for many years been a burgeoning economic force.

It is a large nation with a diversified economy, ranging from manufacturing and engineering to banking and tertiary services and is part of the all-important BRICS (Brazil, India, China, South Africa) economic bloc.

Like all other nations in South America, Brazil is a developing economy, but it has been rapidly developing and is far ahead of all of the other national economies in the continent.

Today, Brazil's government has taken a very prominent step forward in announcing that the country's lawmakers have approved a bill which regulates Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as a payment instrument.

Investors appear to have responded well to the news, as Bitcoin began to pump almost immediately, followed by a short squeeze and then it pumped again.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $16,876.80, which is a 2.68% increase over yesterday's value. That may not sound very much on the face of it, but Bitcoin values have been very stagnant recently, so a 2.68% increase when viewed on the chart is quite significant.

Private individuals and businesses have a lot to gain from the new ruling which allows cryptocurrency to be used as a method of payment, because South American economies for many decades now have been synonymous with rampant inflation, draconian capital control laws causing people to lose their money when it depreciates, and in many countries in South America, a deep-seated distrust in the local banking infrastruture or government policy.

Around 10 years ago, neighboring Argentina ordered the liquidation of US Dollar bank accounts held in North America by Argentinian citizens, and that the US Dollars should be repatriated to Argentina and converted to Pesos. At the same time, capital controls were invoked so that nobody could transfer their Pesos out of the country without government permission.

This meant that anyone who adhered to that rule would be at grave risk of substantial loss due to a terrible conversion rate and then having to store Pesos which are notorious for depreciating at the rate of an iron girder falling off a cliff.

At that time, Bitcoin was in its absolute infancy, and still very much an unknown quantity. It had a tiny following of enthusiasts and 1 Bitcoin was worth something like $50, however a core group of Argentinian enthusiasts began to rally the cause of Bitcoin, largely because they saw it as an independent method of conducting their everyday life without the restrictions and inflationary chaos associated with Peso.

Now, many years later, Bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies are very established globally, and South America's largest economy is opening its doors to them.

If this paves the way for greater acceptance across the South American continent, it could well be a boon for citizens as well as for the cryptocurrency market itself.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.
 

FXOpen Trader

Well-known member
ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 01st DEC, 2022
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ETHUSD: Piercing Pattern Above $1151

Ethereum was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of 1151 on 23rd Nov, the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar crossing the $1300 handle today in the Asian trading session.

After touching $1300 handle we can see some downward correction in the levels of Ethereum which is expected to enter into a consolidation phase now.

We can see the formation of bullish engulfing lines in the 2-hour time frame.

We can clearly see a piercing pattern above the $1151 handle which is a bullish pattern and signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just below its pivot level of 1284 and is moving into a consolidation channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance level of 1290 and Fibonacci resistance level of 1296 after which the path towards 1300 will get cleared.

The relative strength index is at 67 indicating a STRONG demand for Ether and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

We can see both the bullish harami and bullish harami cross pattern in the 15-minute time frame.

Both the STOCH and STOCHRSI are indicating overbought levels, which means that the prices are expected to decline in the short-term range.

Most of the technical indicators are giving a STRONG BUY market signal.

Most of the moving averages are giving a BUY signal and we are now looking at the levels of $1300 to $1350 in the short-term range.

ETH is now trading above its 100 hourly simple and exponential moving averages.

  • Ether: bullish reversal seen above the $1151 mark
  • The short-term range appears to be mildly bullish
  • ETH continues to remain above the $1200 level
  • The average true range is indicating HIGH market volatility

Ether: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $1151
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ETHUSD is now moving into a mildly bullish channel with the prices trading above the $1200 handle in the European trading session today.

ETH is now preparing to enter into a consolidation phase above the $1250 handle, after which fresh upside waves are expected.

ETHUSD touched an intraday high of 1304 in the Asian trading session and an intraday low of 1277 in the European trading session today.

We can see a bullish trend reversal signal with adaptive moving averages AMA20 and AMA50 in the 15-minute time frame.

The resistance of the channel is broken in the daily time frame indicating a bullish trend.

The daily RSI is printing at 52 indicating a neutral demand for Ether in the long-term range.

The key support levels to watch are $1202 which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 70% and $1211 at which price crosses 18 day moving average.

ETH has increased by 1.19% with a price change of 15.13$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 7.849 billion USD.

We can see a decrease of 2.57% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

ETH price continues to remain under bullish pressure and after the current consolidation wave is over, we can expect fresh upsides in the ranges of $1300 and $1400 this week.

We can see the formation of a major bullish trendline in place from $1151 towards $1295 levels.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned neutral, and the long-term outlook for Ether is neutral in present market conditions.

The price of ETHUSD will need to remain above the important support level of $1208 at which the price crosses the 9-day moving average stalls.

The weekly outlook is projected at $1400 with a consolidation zone of $1350.

Technical Indicators:

The relative strength index (14): is at 67.69 indicating a BUY

The rate of price change: is at 9.65 indicating a BUY

The bull/bear power (13): is at 46.55 indicating a BUY

The high/lows (14): is at 33.40 indicating a BUY

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.
 

FXOpen Trader

Well-known member
Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Aim More Upsides, Bulls In Control
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Gold price climbed higher and traded above the $1,780 resistance. Crude oil price is also rising and might climb further higher above $82.50.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

  • Gold price found support near the $1,720 level and started a fresh increase against the US Dollar.
  • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,792 on the hourly chart of gold.
  • Crude oil price gained bullish momentum above the $80.00 resistance zone.
  • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $81.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold price formed a base above the $1,720 level against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh increase and was able to clear the $1,750 and $1,765 resistance levels.

There was a clear move above the $1,780 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The price even broke the $1,800 level and traded as high as $1,804 on FXOpen. Recently, there was a downside correction below the $1,800 level.

Gold Price Hourly Chart
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An immediate support on the downside is near the $1,792 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,792 on the hourly chart of gold.

The trend line is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,745 swing low to $1,804 high. The next major support is near the $1,775 level or the 50 hourly simple moving average.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,745 swing low to $1,804 high is also near $1,775, below which there is a risk of a larger decline.

In the stated case, the price could decline sharply towards the $1,750 support zone. On the upside, the first major resistance is near the $1,800 level.

The main resistance is now forming near the $1,805 level, above which it could even test $1,820. A clear upside break above the $1,820 resistance could send the price towards $1,840.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.
 

FXOpen Trader

Well-known member
Watch FXOpen's November 28 - December 2 Weekly Market Wrap Video

In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

  • How energy markets are reacting to the COVID surge in China
  • GBP rises to 1.21 against USD in bizarre twist
  • Brazil to legalize cryptocurrencies
  • The US dollar suffers biggest fall in 12 years.

Watch our short and informative video, and stay updated with FXOpen.

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FXOpen YouTube


Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.
 

FXOpen Trader

Well-known member
GBP/USD Rallies Further, EUR/GBP Takes A Hit
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GBP/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.2150 resistance. EUR/GBP failed to stay above the 0.8600 support and declined towards 0.8550.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

  • The British Pound started a fresh increase after it broke the 1.2050 resistance against the US Dollar.
  • There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2000 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
  • EUR/GBP started a fresh decline after it failed to surpass the 0.8675 resistance zone.
  • There was a break below a major contracting triangle with support near 0.8615 on the hourly chart.


GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound found support near the 1.1920 zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair started a fresh increase and was able to clear the 1.2000 resistance zone.

There was a also a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2000 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The pair even surpassed the 1.2150 resistance zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart
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Recently, there was a minor downside correction from the 1.2300 zone. The pair dipped below the 1.2200 level. A low was formed near 1.2134 on FXOpen and the pair started a fresh increase.

There was a clear move above the 1.2250 resistance. The pair surpassed the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2310 swing high to 1.2134 low. It is now trading above the 1.2310 swing high.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.2350 level. It is near the 1.236 Fib extension level of the downward move from the 1.2310 swing high to 1.2134 low.

The next main resistance is near the 1.2400 zone. A clear upside break above the 1.2400 and 1.2420 resistance levels could open the doors for a steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance sits near the 1.2500 level.

On the downside, an initial support is near the 1.2300 level, below which it could test the 1.2250 support. The next major support is near the 1.2230 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 1.2200 support zone.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.
 

FXOpen Trader

Well-known member
Brent Crude Oil is on the up as G7 price cap deals blow
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The price of Brent Crude oil is once again on the rise, after a slow and steady decline during early to mid November bottomed out at $76.28 per barrel on November 26.

Since then, the price has been increasing, and today Brent Crude Oil (WTI) is trading at $81.41 per barrel which is a two week high.

This could partly be down to the price cap for oil purchases from Russia having been set by the European Union at $60 per barrel.

This was set late last week in the form of a limit on the price of Russian seaborne crude and therefore constrain revenues the Kremlin makes from the commodity.

However, the market price of crude oil was at the time around $79 per barrel, meaning that the Russian oil companies refused to sell oil to European Union member states which adhered to this price cap, because it is far below the market value.

As a result, demand increased as the potential supply of crude oil to Europe could be affected by the price cap in which European oil purchasers would be expected to adhere to a policy of paying approximately $20 per barrel less than market value for oil imported from Russian oil giants, an offer which of course has been declined by said oil giants as there is no way they will sell oil to commercial clients for three quarters of its real value.

At the end of last week, Russian energy industry had issued a warning that an oil price cap could wreak havoc on the energy markets and push commodity prices even higher. They weren't wrong.

According to an official document from the European Union, this price limit would be subject to regular review in order to monitor its market ramifications. The document stated that the price should be “at least 5% below the average market price" however the $60 that the cap is currently set at is more than 20% less than the average market value of crude oil.

Given that Russia is an OPEC nation and one of its major national industries is the extraction, refinement and export of raw materials for energy generation, there is no likelihood that Russian energy firms would accept this price for oil products.

The raw materials that the Russian economy relies so heavily on are consumable commodities, traded on global exchanges and with the ability to be used as collateral to back economic asset classes and against national debts. These are liquid gold and therefore will be valued and treated as such.

Volatility in the oil market is here once again.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.
 

FXOpen Trader

Well-known member
UK's recession bites again as Pound dives to 1.22 against US Dollar
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After a long period of declining values which blighted the British Pound during the course of the late summer and early autumn period, resulting in it plummeting to a low of 1.18 against the US Dollar at one point, the British sovereign currency managed to pick itself up during November.

The economic chaos that has been clearly visible across Britain reached melting point when the shortest ever prime ministerial post, held for just 44 days by Liz Truss, ended with her catastrophic budget having been completely reversed once she left office.

With an unstable government and confidence in the domestic economy which is now encumbered by double-figure inflation, the Pound had been at its lowest point for many years, until November when it began to steadily rise again.

By the end of last week, the British Pound was at 1.24 against the US Dollar, which is not a bad comeback considering that the British economy continues to flounder, however this week it has been plummeting again.

Yesterday, the Confederation of British Industries (CBI) told CNN that the United Kingdom faces a “lost decade” of low growth if action isn’t taken to address slumping business investment and worker shortages.

“Britain is in stagflation — with rocketing inflation, negative growth, falling productivity and business investment. Firms see potential growth opportunities but a lack of ‘reasons to believe’ in the face of headwinds are causing them to pause investing in 2023,” CBI director general Tony Danker said in a statement.

Energy prices are once again soaring, and the likelihood that interest rates may reach as high as 5% in the real market by early 2023 are indicators that those who are already feeling the pinch may have yet more to come, thus investor confidence remains low and caution is in place.

An interesting metric is that due to the sustained period of high inflation, wage depreciation has been a metric which has been looked at carefully by analysts and economists.

It may well be that the drop in wages in the United Kingdom in the third quarter of 2022 was lower than the previous two quarters of the year, but it has still been one of the largest since this metric began being measured in 2001.

Lower purchasing power due to decreasing wages combined with potentially higher interest rates indicate a possibility of lower spending and therefore potentially lower sales figures in all areas across the entirety of the United Kingdom's consumer markets.

Bearishness is an inevitable byproduct of such dynamics, hence the Pound now languishing once again with a steep decline to 1.22 during the past two days.

Volatility in the major currency market is certainly back.

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.
 

FXOpen Trader

Well-known member
BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 06th DEC 2022
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BTCUSD: Inverted Hammer Pattern Above $16009

Bitcoin was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of 16009 on 28th Nov, the prices started to correct upwards against the US dollar crossing the $17000 handle on 06th Dec.

We have seen a continued escalation in the prices of bitcoin due to the increasing global demands and buying at lower levels.

The resistance of the channel is broken in the 15-minute time frame indicating bullish trends.

We can see a bullish trend reversal pattern with the adaptive moving averages, AMA5, in the 15-minute time frame, and AMA20 in the 30-minute time frame.

We can clearly see an inverted hammer pattern above the $16009 handle which is a bullish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

Bitcoin touched an Intraday low of 16924 and an intraday high of 17098 in the Asian trading session today.

Both the STOCH and STOCHRSI are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

The relative strength index is at 50 indicating a NEUTRAL demand for bitcoin, and the shift towards the consolidation channel in the markets.

Bitcoin is now moving below its 100 hourly simple moving average and its 200 hourly exponential moving averages.

Most of the major technical indicators are giving a STRONG BUY signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 18000 and 18500.

The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility with a mildly bullish momentum.

  • Bitcoin: bullish reversal seen above $16009
  • The Williams percent range is indicating an overbought level
  • The price is now trading just below its pivot level of $17093
  • Some of the moving averages are giving a BUY market signal

Bitcoin: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $16009
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We can now see that the price of bitcoin is moving in a mildly bullish momentum and we are expecting moves towards the consolidation phase before any upwards rebound this week.

The RSI indicator is back over 50 indicating a bullish scenario in the daily time frame.

The ichimoku – bullish crossover: tenkan & kijun pattern is seen in the daily time frame indicating bullish trends.

We can see the formation of an inverted hammer / white gravestone pattern in the weekly time frame.

The price of bitcoin has crossed the $17000 handle today ranging near to a three-week High.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is mildly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $16716 at which the price crosses the 9-day moving average.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic resistance level of 17300 and Fibonacci resistance level of 17627 after which the path towards 18000 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs BTCUSD has decreased by 1.85% by 320$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 18.733 billion. We can see a decrease of 12.48% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

The price of Bitcoin is expected to enter the super bullish zone above the $17000 handle. There is an ascending channel forming with current support at $16395 on the hourly chart of BTCUSD.

We are now preparing to enter the super bullish zone in bitcoin and the prices are expected to gain 100% from the current market levels of $17000 towards $34000 in the starting of next year.

We can see a continuous progression of a bullish trend line formation from $16009 towards the $17169 levels.

The daily RSI is printing at 47 which indicates a NEUTRAL demand for bitcoin and the possibility of a shift towards the consolidation/correction phase for a short term in the markets.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its resistance zone at $17810 at which the price crosses 18-day moving average stalls.

The weekly outlook is projected at $18500 with a consolidation zone of $18000.

Technical Indicators:

The average directional index, ADX (14): is at 27.55 indicating a BUY

The commodity channel index, CCI (14): is at 84.15 indicating a BUY

The rate of price change, ROC: is at 4.84 indicating a BUY

Bull/bear power (13): is at 410.57 indicating a BUY

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EUR/USD Corrects Lower While USD/JPY Aims Fresh Increase
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EUR/USD gained pace and tested the 1.0600 resistance zone. USD/JPY is rising and might rally if it clears the 137.50 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY

  • The Euro started a downside correction from the 1.0600 resistance zone.
  • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0490 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • USD/JPY declined sharply after it traded below the 142.00 support zone.
  • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 137.50 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the Euro found support near the 1.0300 zone against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair started a steady upward move above the 1.0400 and 1.0450 resistance levels.

There was a steady increase above the 1.0500 resistance zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even climbed above the 1.0550 resistance zone. A high was formed near 1.0591 on FXOpen and the pair is now correcting gains.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart
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There was a move below the 1.0550 support zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0428 swing low to 1.0591 high.

An initial support on the downside is near the 1.0450 level. The first major support is near the 1.04250 level. The main support sits near the 1.0380 zone or the 1.236 Fib extension level of the upward move from the 1.0428 swing low to 1.0591 high, below which the pair could start a major decline.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 1.0490 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0490 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

The next major resistance is near the 1.0520 level. An upside break above 1.0520 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might revisit 1.0580. Any more gains might send the pair towards 1.0650.

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S&P500 closes lower for fourth day as recession fears bite
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The S&P500 index closed yesterday at its lowest point in four days following a steady decline as investors in American stocks concern themselves with the possibilities of a recession.

The prestigious index which contains some of Wall Street's most heralded blue chip giants lost 1.44% to close at 3,941.26, while the Nasdaq Composite sank 2% to finish at 11,014.89. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 350.76 points, or 1.03%, to settle at 33,596.34.

The majority of the losses in this week's retraction in US stock values have been caused by bank stocks as well as shares in some media companies, which is perhaps in line with the concern about exposure to unserviceable debt by individuals and businesses should a recession bite.

Investment banks are taking a cautious stance, and Morgan Stanley this week released news that it plans to make redundancies amounting to approximately 2% of its workforce, and whilst inflation in the United States has actually decreased and is now standing at around 7.7%, it is well over 10 in the UK and in some parts of Europe, where many large American corporations have substantial operations and have to fork out more capital to keep pace with the increasing price of everything from materials to logistical costs and wages.

When considering yesterday's declines, the S&P is now down 3.2% this week and the NASDAQ has decreased in value by 3.9%.

The Federal Reserve is still looking at interest rates and has taken a very conservative approach, but it appears that analysts and investors have not ruled out the possibility of a recession taking place across the United States in 2023, even if it is not likely to be to the same extent as the impending recessions in Europe and the United Kingdom.

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ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 08th DEC, 2022
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ETHUSD: Double Bottom Pattern Above $1218

Ethereum was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of 1211 on 07th Dec, the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar moving into a consolidation channel above the $1200 handle today in the European trading session.

We can see the formation of a bullish harami pattern in the 15-minute time frame indicating a bullish trend.

The Williams percent range indicator is back over -50 in the 2-hour time frame.

We can clearly see a double bottom pattern above the $1218 handle which is a bullish pattern and signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just below its pivot level of 1232 and moving into a consolidation channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance level of 1234 and Fibonacci resistance level of 1235 after which the path towards 1300 will get cleared.

The relative strength index is at 53 indicating a NEUTRAL demand for Ether and the continuation of the consolidation phase in the markets.

We can see both the bullish harami and bullish harami cross pattern in the daily time frame.

Both the relative strength index and the average directional index are indicating neutral levels, which means that the prices are expected to remain in a narrow range in the short-term range.

Most of the technical indicators are giving a STRONG BUY market signal.

Most of the moving averages are giving a BUY signal and we are now looking at the levels of $1300 to $1400 in the short-term range.

ETH is now trading below its 100 hourly simple and 200 hourly exponential moving averages.

  • Ether: bullish reversal seen above the $1218 mark
  • The short-term range appears to be mildly bullish
  • ETH continues to remain above the $1200 levels
  • The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility

Ether: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $1218
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ETHUSD is now moving into a mild bullish channel with the price trading above the $1200 handle in the European trading session today.

ETH is now preparing to enter into a consolidation phase above the $1230 handle, after which fresh upside waves are expected.

ETHUSD touched an intraday high of 1234 and an intraday low of 1223 in the Asian trading session today.

We have seen a bullish opening in the markets this week.

The daily RSI is printing at 47 indicating a neutral demand for Ether in the long-term range.

The key support levels to watch are $1191, which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 50%, and $1215 at which price crosses 18 Day Moving Average.

ETH has increased by 0.09% with a price change of 1.07$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 4.698 billion USD.

We can see a decrease of 24.01% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which appears to be Normal.

The Week Ahead

ETH price continues to remain under mild bullish pressure and the prices are expected to remain in a bullish traction this week.

After the current wave of consolidation gets over, we are expecting fresh buying pressure above the $1200 handle which will push the price above the $1300 level.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned neutral, and the long-term outlook for Ether is neutral in present market conditions.

The price of ETHUSD will need to remain above the important support level of $1199 at which the price crosses 9-day moving average stalls.

The weekly outlook is projected at $1400 with a consolidation zone of $1350.

Technical Indicators:

The relative strength index (14): is at 53.20 indicating a NEUTRAL.

The STOCH (9,6): is at 69.01 indicating a BUY

The MACD (12,26): is at 0.350 indicating a BUY

Bull/bear power (13): is at 1.498 indicating a BUY

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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Eye Steady Increase: Here’s Why
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AUD/USD is moving higher and might climb further higher above 0.6800. NZD/USD is also rising and might surge above the 0.6440 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

  • The Aussie Dollar started a fresh increase above the 0.6720 and 0.6740 levels against the US Dollar.
  • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.6780 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
  • NZD/USD is showing a lot of bullish signs above the 0.6380 support zone.
  • There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.6360 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar formed a base above the 0.6660 level and started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair gained pace above the 0.6700 level to move into a positive zone.

There was a clear move above the 0.6720 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The bulls pushed the pair above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6850 swing high to 0.6668 low.

AUD/USD Hourly Chart
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The pair even climbed above the 0.6740 level and traded as high as 0.6778. It is now consolidating gains near the 0.6800 resistance zone.

On the upside, the AUD/USD pair is facing resistance near the 0.6810 level. It is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6850 swing high to 0.6668 low. The next major resistance is near the 0.6850 level.

A close above the 0.6850 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance could be 0.6920.

On the downside, an initial support is near the 0.6780 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.6780 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. The next support could be the 0.6740 level. If there is a downside break below the 0.6740 support, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.6660 level.

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Watch FXOpen's December 5 - 9 Weekly Market Wrap Video

In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

  • Brent Crude Oil is on the up as G7 price cap deals blow
  • UK's recession bites again as pound dives to 1.22 against US Dollar
  • The Pentagon signs a $9 billion contract
  • S&P500 closes lower for fourth day as recession fears bite

Watch our short and informative video and stay updated with FXOpen.

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FXOpen YouTube


Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.
 

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GBP/USD Reaches Key Support, USD/CAD Gains Bullish Momentum
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GBP/USD started a downside correction below 1.2250. USD/CAD is rising and might gain pace above the 1.3700 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

  • The British Pound was able to move above the 1.2200 and 1.2250 resistance levels.
  • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2220 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
  • USD/CAD climbed higher above the 1.3600 and 1.3620 resistance levels.
  • It cleared a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.3660 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

After forming a base above the 1.2100, the British Pound started a steady increase against the US Dollar. GBP/USD gained pace for a move above the 1.2150 and 1.2200 resistance levels.

There was a move above the 1.2250 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even moved above the 1.2300 level and traded as high as 1.2322. It is now correcting gains and trading below the 1.2300 level.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart
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Recently, there was a move below the 1.2280 and 1.2250 support levels. The pair declined below the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2105 swing low to 1.2322 high.

It is now trading below the 1.2240 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. On the downside, an initial support is near the 1.2220 area. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2105 swing low to 1.2322 high.

There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2220 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The next major support is near the 1.2190 level. If there is a break below 1.2190, the pair could extend its decline. The next key support is near the 1.2120 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.2100 support.

An immediate resistance is near the 1.2250 level. The next resistance is near the 1.2280 level. The main resistance is near the 1.2325 level. If there is an upside break above the 1.2325 zone, the pair could rise towards 1.2400. The next key resistance could be 1.2500.

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Sudden gold price hike attracts speculative attention
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Gold prices over the past few weeks have been rising sharply.

In early November, the price of gold was at its lowest point in over 6 months, languishing at $1,628 per ounce, however the sudden rise in value has culminated in gold prices being at their highest since the summer, arriving at over $1,796 per ounce on today's market.

As it stands, the price of gold is aiming to recapture a five-month high at around $1,800.00 as the risk-on profile is regaining traction.

Volatility in a market which is usually not so volatile due to gold being regarded as a physical store of value and therefore the preserve of conservative investors who wish to keep an investment in the precious metal as a safety net against any central bank policy affecting the currency markets, adverse national economic conditions or corporate decisions affecting stock prices when investing in listed companies.

The very dynamic that is currently taking place in that gold is fluctuating significantly in value has led to some attention from analysts and investors, some of which have called it a 'bull run', and others who are making wild speculations that gold could increase dramatically in value to around $3000 per ounce in 2023, a figure which seems outlandish and stratospheric.

There are also a number of conservative views, some of which are that although gold finished last week's trading at almost $1,800 an ounce, there is a high chance for a move lower as the Federal Reserve can still surprise on the hawkish side.

The Federal Reserve Bank is likely to announce another interest rate rise on Wednesday, with markets looking for a slower tightening pace of 50 base points versus 75 base points, and when looking at precious metals being traded on commodities exchanges rather than on an over the counter basis, things are already looking to slow a bit.

On this basis, gold is trading essentially flat during the course of last week, with February Comex gold futures remaining very level at $1,815 an ounce.

It is all very well taking the opinion that people may invest in gold should a recession set in, in order to safeguard their capital against possible economic woes in the currency and stock markets, but in the case in which interest rates rise and recessions bite, there is a tendency toward maintaining cash to pay for increased costs of living during a time when the means of most are stretched, meaning that many people do not have the extra capital to invest and will concentrate on everyday expenses.

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Crypto winter continues big freeze with values as frosty as weather
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The weather across parts of Northern Europe and the United Kingdom this week has suddenly turned, and even areas which are ordinarily not associated with snowfall have been covered in a white blanket for a few days.

Travel disruptions at airports have taken place, and a minus figure has been displayed on temperature gauges since Monday.

Finally the real winter weather is here, however the term 'crypto winter' has been in place for quite some time, despite the unusually warm weather during October and November, during which it was not uncommon to see people wearing summer clothes and sitting outside cafes.

The only real sign of winter in the unusually long and pleasant summer conditions was the use in the financial markets sector of the term 'crypto winter', which does not refer to seasons or weather conditions, but instead the 'frozen' values of cryptocurrencies in which prices contract and remain low for an extended period.

Well, now there is a seasonal winter and a crypto winter at the same time.

Bitcoin values once again took a tumble during the early hours of this morning, and by 7.20am UK time, had reached a low point of $17,125 per Bitcoin against the US Dollar.

Over the two hours which ensued, Bitcoin made some headway, increasing to $17,177 but that is still 0.21% down overall during today compared to yesterday.

Looking over the five day moving average, however, the dip in value appears to have been present for a longer period of time. On December 12, values plunged and did not recover until the middle of the morning on December 13, and a 0.44% reduction in value is displayed when charting Bitcoin's performance over the past five days.

Although we certainly still are well ensconced in the Crypto Winter scenario, things are a little brighter than they were last month however. The sun may have been shining across Europe but Bitcoin values were even lower than they are now.

Bitcoin has actually risen by over 5% in value over the course of the past 30 days, so the snow may have fallen and the winter clothes been suddenly put to use, but is this the beginning of the big thaw for the Crypto Winter?

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Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.
 
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