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Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

GBP/USD Could Accelerate Higher, EUR/GBP Remains At Risk


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GBP/USD is facing resistance near 1.3850, but it might accelerate higher. EUR/GBP is facing an increase in selling pressure below 0.8550.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP


  • The British Pound is showing positive signs, but it is facing resistance near 1.3850.
  • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3810 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
  • EUR/GBP declined below the 0.8580 and 0.8550 support levels.
  • There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8510 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

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After forming a support base above 1.3720, the British Pound started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair broke the 1.3780 and 1.3800 resistance levels to move into a positive zone.

There was also a close above the 1.3800 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair is now facing a strong resistance near the 1.3850 level. The recent high was formed near 1.3852 on FXOpen before there was a minor downside correction.

There was a break below the 1.3825 level. The pair even declined below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3746 swing low to 1.3852 high.

The pair is now holding the 1.3800 support zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3810 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3746 swing low to 1.3852 high.

If there is a downside break below the trend line, the pair could decline towards the 1.3780 and 1.3770 support levels. Any more losses might lead the pair towards the key 1.3720 support.

On the upside, the pair is facing hurdles near the 1.3850 level. A clear upside break above the 1.3850 level could open the doors for a steady increase. In the stated case, GBP/USD could rise towards the 1.6000 level in the near term.




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Global Economic Activity Picks Up On Increased Vaccination Campaigns


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As most of the world celebrates Easter, strong signs of economic recovery emerge. Last Friday, with most banks closed, the United States revealed the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) numbers for March 2021.

The release exceeded all expectations, showing that the United States economy added close to a million new jobs in only one month. Moreover, the unemployment rate edged down to 6%, a further encouraging sign that the world’s largest economy is recovering from the pandemic.

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Furthermore, important revisions to previous data showed that an additional 156k jobs were created in January and February. In total, 1.7 million jobs were added by the United States economy in the first quarter of the year. Because this is the largest economy in the world, the chances are that the positive economic effects will spill over to its main trading partners, fueling a strong economic recovery around the world.
Vaccines Rollout Spurring Economic Growth

Last November, the world found out that science delivered on its efforts to find a vaccine against the COVID-19 virus. For three consecutive weeks, companies like Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, or AstraZeneca, released promising data on their vaccine trials.

Fast forward four months to present times, and the vaccines are rolled out around the world. While differences exist in the vaccination pace, the main idea is that the quicker the governments manage to inoculate the population, the faster the economy recovers, and life will get back to normal.

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Supply and distribution disparities exist. The United Kingdom and the United States are leading the developed world, while the Euro area is lagging behind.

It all came down to how fast the nations moved to secure the vaccines and what risks they took in the early days of the pandemic. Europe lost momentum in the first quarter, but things look promising starting with April – in the first day of April, over three million people received a vaccine in Europe, a pace that will likely increase moving forward.

If we add the fiscal stimulus in the United States (i.e., $1.9 trillion) already distributed and the upcoming $3 trillion for long-term infrastructure projects, the chances are that the economic data will beat expectations in the months ahead too.

The currency market acted accordingly and rewarded investors closely watching the vaccination race – the U.S. dollar and the British pound rallied in the last months, while the euro lagged. Moving forward, 2021 might be a year dominated by a risk-on environment as the global economy recovers from the pandemic. The key stays with the vaccination campaigns – the quicker the world’s nations inoculate the population, the better for the economic growth.




FXOpen Blog
 
BTC struggling to break $60,000 while Ripple shown a parabolic rise


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BTC/USD

The price of Bitcoin has attempted to break the $60,000 last week as we have mostly seen buyers’ pressure on the level throughout the week until Sunday when a decrease was made to $56,466. From there we have seen another increase followed by a higher low and now the price has made a higher high which is a bullish sign. However, it is once again back below the first horizontal level in line at $59,420 and is shortly going to make another breakout attempt.

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The uptrend continuation would be expected in either way but it is still unclear whether or not before it we are going to see a deeper retracement. The primary scenario is a bullish one and says that now the price has started developing a new lower degree five-wave move to the upside.

If this is true, then we are going to see another higher low for the 4th wave and potentially an interaction with the all-time high on its ending wave. But this would only be the 1st sub-wave of the higher degree count which is why new highs would be anticipated after a pullback to establish further support.




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EUR/USD and EUR/JPY: Euro is Eyeing More Gains


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EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.1820 and 1.1850 resistance levels. EUR/JPY is correcting gains, but it is likely to restart its rise above 130.50.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY


  • The Euro formed a base above 1.1720 and started a fresh increase above 1.1800.
  • EUR/JPY is also trading in a positive zone above the 130.00 support.
  • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 129.95 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

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After trading close to the 1.1700 level, the Euro started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke the 1.1780 and 1.1800 resistance levels to move into a positive zone.

There was also a break above a couple of bullish continuation patterns near 1.1765 and 1.1820 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. It opened the doors for more gains above the 1.1850 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

It traded as high as 1.1877 on FXOpen and it is now consolidating gains. An initial support is near the 1.1855 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 1.1795 low to 1.1877 high.

Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.1840 support or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the 1.1795 low to 1.1877 high. The next major support is near the 1.1800 level or the 50 hourly simple moving average.

On the upside, the pair is facing resistance near the 1.1880 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.1920 level. A clear break above 1.1920 might start a steady increase towards the 1.2000 resistance. The next major resistance above the 1.2000 level sits near the 1.2050 level.




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LTC and EOS – Looking for support


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LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin has been rising since last week and came up to its previous high at $244 on the 6th of April. From there we have seen a decline of 13.26% as it came down to $211.62. Currently, it is being traded at around $220.9 as a minor recovery has been made but the price has been moving to the downside again.

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On the hourly chart, you can see that the price of Litecoin was on the rise since the 25th of March when it fell down to the 0.618 Fibonacci level. This was at first expected as a corrective 4th wave from the descending impulse wave but as it continued increasing from there above the 0.382 FIb level the count was invalidated which implied that previously we have seen a three-wave correction.

If the previosly seen descending move ended as the higher degree WXY correction then from the 25th of March we have seen the start of the next impulsive move being its first wave. No retracement back to the 0.382 Fib level could be expected as the second sub-wave of the five-wave impulse to the upside from which the price of Litecoin would be set to continue its upward trajectory. However, first, we need to see the establishment of support and the validation of the count so from the momentum and the depth of the expected descending move we are going to reevaluate this possibility.




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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Remains Supported For More Upsides


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AUD/USD is following a positive zone and it recently broke the 0.7620 resistance. NZD/USD is also trading in a positive zone above the 0.7030 support.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD


  • The Aussie Dollar started a fresh increase above the 0.7580 and 0.7600 levels against the US Dollar.
  • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.7630 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
  • NZD/USD traded as high as 0.7065 and it is currently correcting lower.
  • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.7025 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

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After testing the 0.7550 support zone, the Aussie Dollar started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair broke a few key hurdles near the 0.7580 level to move into a positive zone.

The pair even broke the 0.7600 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded as high as 0.7676 on FXOpen and recently corrected lower. The recent swing high was formed near 0.7660 and the pair is now trading below the 0.7650 level.

It broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7600 swing low to 0.7660 swing high. It is now testing the 0.7635 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.7630 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7600 swing low to 0.7660 swing high.

If there is a downside break below the trend line, the pair could dive towards the 0.7600 support zone in the near term. On the upside, the pair is facing hurdles near the 0.7650 and 0.7660 levels.

The main resistance is near the 0.7675 level. A successful close above the 0.7660 and 0.7675 levels could open the doors for a steady increase in the coming sessions. The next key resistance could be 0.7720.




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GBP/USD is Diving, USD/CAD Could Start Steady Increase


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GBP/USD failed to stay above 1.3800 and extended its decline. USD/CAD is showing positive signs, but it must clear 1.2570 for a decent increase in the near term.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD


  • The British Pound started a fresh decline from well above the 1.3850 support zone.
  • There is a key declining channel forming with resistance near 1.3715 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
  • USD/CAD found support near the 1.2525 zone and it is now recovering higher.
  • Earlier, there was a break below a key contracting triangle with support near 1.3565 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

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This past week, the British Pound failed to stay above the 1.3850 and 1.3800 support levels against the US Dollar. As a result, the GBP/USD pair started a fresh decline and it even broke the 1.3750 support zone.

There was a close below the 1.3750 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair declined below the 1.3700 level and it traded as low as 1.3670. Recently, there was an upside correction above 1.3700, but the pair struggled to clear the 1.3750 zone.

A high was formed near 1.3744 and the pair is now declining. It broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3670 low to 1.3744 high.

There is also a key declining channel forming with resistance near 1.3715 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The pair is now trading near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3670 low to 1.3744 high.

It seems like the pair might continue to move down below the 1.3670 support zone. The next major support is near the 1.3620 level, below which the pair might test 1.3580.

On the upside, the 1.3720 zone is a major hurdle along with the 50 hourly simple moving average. A successful close above the 1.3720 and 1.3750 levels could open the doors for a decent increase in the coming sessions.




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Cryptocurrencies Remain Well Bid as Coinbase Goes Public This Week


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Over the weekend, the price of Bitcoin extended its rally to above $60,000 again. While not making a new all-time high, Bitcoin remains well bid ahead of the main event of the week ahead – the listing of Coinbase, one of the largest crypto exchanges.

The cryptocurrency market increased in size dramatically in recent years. The interest surrounding cryptocurrencies is on the rise, as suggested by the number of people trading on the various exchanges.

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Part of the process of becoming a listed company, Coinbase made public its Q1 2021 numbers. What is interesting is that the number of active traders increased dramatically in the first months of the year, explaining the rise in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

While many traders focus on Bitcoin only, some other cryptocurrencies had an even better performance than Bitcoin. For example, Ethereum reached a new all-time high over the weekend, and the rally looks poised to continue.

Bitcoin’s detractors argue that the digital currency wastes a vast amount of energy, and thus it is an environmental disaster. Because of that, many traders flee Bitcoin to other alternatives, such as Ether, that do not have such a problem.

Yet, when it comes to institutional investors’ adoption, Bitcoin remains the preferred choice. Moving forward, the price of Bitcoin remains well bid, and so the rally is poised to continue.

Two days from now, Coinbase, one of the largest crypto exchanges in the world, goes public. Companies usually choose to go public during a rising market. Often companies postpone the listing process when markets are falling. But now, the main indices are close to all-time highs, and so the timing of going public boats well for Coinbase and cryptocurrency traders.

Judging by the interest surrounding cryptocurrencies, the chances are that Coinbase’s listing will be a bullish event for the main cryptocurrencies too. As such, Bitcoin and Ethereum remain well bid, with buyers likely to step in on every dip.




FXOpen Blog
 
EUR/USD Gains Traction, USD/JPY Is Extending Losses


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EUR/USD started a decent increase after forming a base above the 1.1850 level. USD/JPY is declining and it broke the 109.00 support zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY


  • The Euro is showing positive signs above the 1.1880 and 1.1900 levels.
  • There was a break above a key declining channel with resistance near 1.1915 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
  • USD/JPY started a fresh decline below the 109.20 and 109.00 support levels.
  • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 109.50 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

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After a decent upward move, the Euro settled above the 1.1850 resistance zone against the US Dollar. Recently, the EUR/USD pair formed a support base above 1.1850 and started a fresh increase.

It broke a few important hurdles near the 1.1880 and 1.1900 levels. There was also a break above a key declining channel with resistance near 1.1915 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The pair gained pace above the 1.1940 level and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average.

A high is formed near 1.1960 on FXOpen and the pair is now consolidating gains. An initial support on the downside is near the 1.1940 level.

The 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the 1.1877 low to 1.1960 high is also near the 1.1940 level. The next major support on the downside is near the 1.1920 level (the recent breakout zone).

The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the 1.1877 low to 1.1960 high is also near the 1.1920 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.1850 level. On the upside, the first major resistance is now forming near the 1.1960 levels.

A successful break above the 1.1960 resistance could open the doors for a push towards the 1.2000 resistance zone in the coming sessions.




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LTC and EOS – Resistance found


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LTC/USD

The price of Litecoin has reached $282 at its highest point yesterday and after a minor retracement made it back to that area again today. Currently, it is being traded at $271.89 and is looking like it’s moving to the downside.

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On the hourly chart, we can see that the price of Litecoin was in an uptrend from the 25th of March when it was traded at $167. Measured to its highest point yesterday that was an increase of 68.8% but what more significant is that it made a higher high compared to the one on the 20th of February. This is why the increase from the 25th is considered the 3rd wave from the higher degree five-wave count. The wave structure implies that it might have ended and considering that we have seen the formation of the ascending channel from the start of the year now a pullback all the way down to its support might occur.

There is still a bit more room to the upside for proper interaction with the channel’s resistance and more so if the level is adjusted to encompass February’s high. However, this structure appears to be an ending diagonal as the 5th wave from the higher degree impulse which is why further interactions with its level would be expected before the completion, meaning we could likely see the price of Litecoin back to $220 area, before another higher high to $330 area.




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Gold Price and Oil Price Could Continue To Rise


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Gold price started a fresh increase above the $1,740 resistance zone. Crude oil price is also rising and it is likely to continue higher above $63.50.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil


  • Gold price gained pace after it broke the $1,720 and $1,740 resistance levels against the US Dollar.
  • There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $1,745 on the hourly chart of gold.
  • Crude oil price climbed higher nicely and it settled above the $62.00 support zone.
  • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $62.45 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

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Earlier this week, gold price formed a decent support base above the $1,725 level against the US Dollar. As a result, there was a fresh increase above the $1,730 and $1,740 levels.

There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $1,745 on the hourly chart of gold. The price gained pace above the $1,750 level and it settled well above the 50 hourly simple moving average.

It even traded above the $1,765 level and a high is formed near $1,769 on FXOpen. The price is now correcting lower and trading below the $1,765 level.

It is testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,732 low to $1,769 high. An immediate support on the downside is near the $1,758 level. The next major support on the downside is near the $1,755 level.

Any more losses might call for a test of the $1,750 support. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,732 low to $1,769 high.

On the upside, the $1,768 and $1,770 levels are immediate hurdles. A clear break above $1,770 might open the doors for a steady increase towards the $1,780 level. The next key resistance is near the $1,800 level.




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