FXOpen Trader
Well-known member
USDJPY Technical Analysis – 25th DEC, 2025
USDJPY - USD/JPY’s climb to 156.07 on 25th December 2025 was less a breakout and more a reaffirmation of overhead resistance
USD/JPY Technical Analysis – 25th December 2025
On 25th December 2025, USD/JPY surged to a session high of 156.07, a level that emerged as a decisive resistance point within the pair’s ongoing recovery phase. The intraday candle was narrow bodied with extended upper shadows, a structure that conveyed exhaustion among buyers and highlighted the presence of defensive offers clustered around the 156.00 psychological threshold. This rejection at the highs underscored the market’s reluctance to extend gains further, suggesting that sellers were quietly re entering the market to cap upside momentum.
From a daily chart perspective, short term trend guidance from the 20 day moving average aligned near 155.40, cushioning the advance and acting as immediate support. The 50 day moving average, positioned at 154.20, was sloping upward, reinforcing medium term bullish bias. The 200 day moving average, anchored at 150.85, continued to signal a constructive long term outlook, confirming that the broader trend structure remained intact. Momentum gauges painted a mixed picture: Relative Strength readings gravitated toward 61, reflecting improving strength but nearing overbought territory, while MACD levels hovered marginally above zero, indicating that bullish undertones were present but lacked strong conviction.
On the four hour chart, the pair’s behaviour was more nuanced. Overbought signals emerged as stochastic readings climbed near 77, suggesting that upside momentum was stretched and a pullback was probable. Sellers defended the 156.00–156.10 ceiling, while support was defined at 155.40 and 154.80. Momentum flattened, underscoring indecision, yet the inability of buyers to push decisively higher revealed that bullish pressure was losing traction. Intraday volatility remained contained, with price oscillations narrowing into a consolidation band, a typical precursor to directional breakout attempts.
The weekly chart provided a broader lens. Since the September 2025 through near 147.50, USD/JPY has carved a sequence of higher lows and higher highs, a hallmark of sustained bullish structure. Volatility, measured by the Average True Range, hovered around 1.35, suggesting controlled swings within a directional bias that favoured buyers. Retracement mapping from the July 2025 peak of 160.25 to the September low of 147.50 identified key thresholds: the 38.2% marker at 152.40, the 50% retracement at 153.90, and the 61.8% retracement at 155.40. The 156.07 high coincided just above this 61.8% zone, underscoring its strategic importance as a technical checkpoint where sellers were expected to defend aggressively.
Market sentiment at this juncture was shaped by the interplay between corrective rebound attempts and longer term bullish bias. The rejection at 156.07 suggested that institutional flows were likely fading near retracement resistance, while retail positioning remained cautious given the proximity to medium term moving average support. The pair’s ability to hold above 155.40 was critical, as a sustained defense here would reinforce the bullish narrative and invite fresh buying interest.
Upside continuation requires a decisive break above 156.10, which would open the path toward 158.00 and potentially 160.25, aligning with prior swing highs and reinforcing the broader uptrend. Conversely, failure to hold 155.40 would validate a bearish extension toward 154.80 and possibly 153.90, levels that coincide with the 50% retracement and medium term moving average support. Until such a breakout occurs, range bound conditions between 155.40 and 156.10 are likely to dominate, offering tactical opportunities for short term traders while the longer term uptrend remains intact.
In summary, USD/JPY’s climb to 156.07 on 25th December 2025 was less a breakout and more a reaffirmation of overhead resistance. The confluence of moving average alignment, Fibonacci retracement context, and oscillator signals pointed to a market in consolidation, with sellers defending critical levels and preparing for the next directional move. The balance of evidence favoured stabilization and potential retracement lower, unless buyers could decisively clear the 156.10 barrier.
#fxopen #forex #forexanalysis
Disclaimer: This analysis represents my own opinion only. It is not to be construed as an opinion, offer, solicitation, recommendation, or financial advice of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand.
For in-depth analysis, please check ...
USDJPY - USD/JPY’s climb to 156.07 on 25th December 2025 was less a breakout and more a reaffirmation of overhead resistance
USD/JPY Technical Analysis – 25th December 2025
On 25th December 2025, USD/JPY surged to a session high of 156.07, a level that emerged as a decisive resistance point within the pair’s ongoing recovery phase. The intraday candle was narrow bodied with extended upper shadows, a structure that conveyed exhaustion among buyers and highlighted the presence of defensive offers clustered around the 156.00 psychological threshold. This rejection at the highs underscored the market’s reluctance to extend gains further, suggesting that sellers were quietly re entering the market to cap upside momentum.
From a daily chart perspective, short term trend guidance from the 20 day moving average aligned near 155.40, cushioning the advance and acting as immediate support. The 50 day moving average, positioned at 154.20, was sloping upward, reinforcing medium term bullish bias. The 200 day moving average, anchored at 150.85, continued to signal a constructive long term outlook, confirming that the broader trend structure remained intact. Momentum gauges painted a mixed picture: Relative Strength readings gravitated toward 61, reflecting improving strength but nearing overbought territory, while MACD levels hovered marginally above zero, indicating that bullish undertones were present but lacked strong conviction.
On the four hour chart, the pair’s behaviour was more nuanced. Overbought signals emerged as stochastic readings climbed near 77, suggesting that upside momentum was stretched and a pullback was probable. Sellers defended the 156.00–156.10 ceiling, while support was defined at 155.40 and 154.80. Momentum flattened, underscoring indecision, yet the inability of buyers to push decisively higher revealed that bullish pressure was losing traction. Intraday volatility remained contained, with price oscillations narrowing into a consolidation band, a typical precursor to directional breakout attempts.
The weekly chart provided a broader lens. Since the September 2025 through near 147.50, USD/JPY has carved a sequence of higher lows and higher highs, a hallmark of sustained bullish structure. Volatility, measured by the Average True Range, hovered around 1.35, suggesting controlled swings within a directional bias that favoured buyers. Retracement mapping from the July 2025 peak of 160.25 to the September low of 147.50 identified key thresholds: the 38.2% marker at 152.40, the 50% retracement at 153.90, and the 61.8% retracement at 155.40. The 156.07 high coincided just above this 61.8% zone, underscoring its strategic importance as a technical checkpoint where sellers were expected to defend aggressively.
Market sentiment at this juncture was shaped by the interplay between corrective rebound attempts and longer term bullish bias. The rejection at 156.07 suggested that institutional flows were likely fading near retracement resistance, while retail positioning remained cautious given the proximity to medium term moving average support. The pair’s ability to hold above 155.40 was critical, as a sustained defense here would reinforce the bullish narrative and invite fresh buying interest.
Upside continuation requires a decisive break above 156.10, which would open the path toward 158.00 and potentially 160.25, aligning with prior swing highs and reinforcing the broader uptrend. Conversely, failure to hold 155.40 would validate a bearish extension toward 154.80 and possibly 153.90, levels that coincide with the 50% retracement and medium term moving average support. Until such a breakout occurs, range bound conditions between 155.40 and 156.10 are likely to dominate, offering tactical opportunities for short term traders while the longer term uptrend remains intact.
In summary, USD/JPY’s climb to 156.07 on 25th December 2025 was less a breakout and more a reaffirmation of overhead resistance. The confluence of moving average alignment, Fibonacci retracement context, and oscillator signals pointed to a market in consolidation, with sellers defending critical levels and preparing for the next directional move. The balance of evidence favoured stabilization and potential retracement lower, unless buyers could decisively clear the 156.10 barrier.
#fxopen #forex #forexanalysis
Disclaimer: This analysis represents my own opinion only. It is not to be construed as an opinion, offer, solicitation, recommendation, or financial advice of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand.
For in-depth analysis, please check ...
