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Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

USD CAD Technical Outlook Amid Fed Speeches

The USD/CAD forex pair, commonly known as the "Loonie," represents the exchange rate between the United States dollar and the Canadian dollar. It is widely traded due to the significant economic ties between the US and Canada, especially concerning commodities like oil. Today, the market is closely monitoring multiple influential events from the US Federal Reserve, including remarks by Governors Christopher Waller, Michael Barr, Stephen Miran, and Michelle Bowman. Their discussions on monetary policy, economic stability, and stablecoins are anticipated to impact market sentiment and could support the USD if their tone is hawkish. Additionally, traders will closely observe data releases such as the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey and US crude oil inventories. On the Canadian side, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem’s insights on Canada’s economic outlook will significantly influence CAD volatility and directional bias, especially with focus on global trade dynamics.
USDCAD Fundamental and Technical Forecast.10.16.2025.jpg

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.

Analyzing the USD/CAD H4 chart reveals a long-term bullish trend with recent intermittent challenges around the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.382. Currently, a noticeable regular divergence suggests potential weakening bullish momentum, indicating a probable corrective phase toward the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.39914. Conversely, a bullish continuation towards the resistance level at 1.41016 remains plausible given ongoing positive sentiment. MACD shows minimal bullish momentum with a histogram at 0.00013, a MACD line at 0.00293, and the signal line at 0.00281, while the RSI at 56.57 indicates moderate bullish sentiment. Ichimoku analysis further supports a cautiously bullish bias, with Conversion Line at 1.40492 above the Base Line at 1.40266, Lagging Span positioned at 1.40408, and Leading Span A and B indicating strong support levels at 1.40379 and 1.40046 respectively.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore
 
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