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EUR/CHF turned into sideway trading last week but recovery was limited by 1.0602 minor resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further fall is expected. Break of 1.0532 will resume down trend from 1.1149 to 100% projection of 1.1149 to 1.0694 from 1.0936 at 1.0481. On the upside, however, break of 1.0602 will turn bias to the upside for stronger rebound back towards 1.0678 support turned resistance.
current downside momentum argues that fall from 1.1149 is probably resuming the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high). Next focus is 1.0505 (2020 low). Decisive break there will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223 next. Strong support from 1.0505 will bring rebound first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0936 resistance holds.
On the other hand, The Bank of England will be the first major central bank to raise interest rates but whether that initial increase comes as soon as next month or if it waits until early next year has divided economists polled by Reuters.
Britain's central bank surprised markets - but not a majority of the economists Reuters surveyed in October - by leaving Bank Rate unchanged at a record low of 0.10% last week.
While the median forecast in the Nov. 8-12 poll was for a 15 basis point increase on Dec. 16, just under half of those polled, 21 of 47, said the Bank would hold firm. If it does act next month it would be its first December hike since 1994.
The GBP/USD weekly forecast is bearish as the pound face strong selling pressure amid Brexit concerns.
There was some support near the mid-1.3300, and the pair recovered from its lowest level since December 2020, which was reached this Friday and broke a three-day losing streak. As a result, the GBP/USD pair posted significant losses after the US dollar hit 16-month highs. Nonetheless, meaningful recovery is still out of reach, and trying to recover fairly quickly could result in failure.
Market expectations were confirmed Wednesday that the Fed would be forced to raise rates sooner rather than later. It appears that the first rate hike may come as early as July 2022, based on Fed funds futures. Together with higher yields on US Treasuries, this should help contain a sharp decline in the dollar and prevent aggressive rates around the GBP/USD amid Brexit concerns.
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