EURUSD Daily Analysis

[FXGlory Ltd]

EUR/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.10.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, EUR-USD market participants are focused on significant data and speeches impacting both the USD and EUR currencies. The U.S. unemployment claims and speeches by Federal Reserve officials including Alberto Musalem, Christopher Waller, and Mary Daly could induce volatility, especially if the tone leans hawkish. For the EUR, attention is directed towards CPI figures from Destatis and industrial production data from Istat, which could strongly influence market sentiment and currency strength, potentially setting the stage for volatility and trading opportunities.


Price Action:
Analyzing the EUR USD price action on the H4 timeframe, after breaking a critical resistance level around 1.16090, EURUSD is currently experiencing a pullback towards this significant technical area, now acting as support. This region also coincides closely with a rising trend line, creating a potential reversal zone (PRZ). Given recent bearish momentum in the pullback, a clear bullish reaction near this PRZ would confirm the continuation of the prior bullish trend, making it a key area to watch closely.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The indicator is currently placed above the recent candles, indicating bearish short-term sentiment. However, a reversal below the candles would suggest renewed bullish momentum.
RSI: Currently at 46.40, RSI shows neutral conditions with slight bearish bias. The indicator implies that there's still room for the price to either continue slightly downward or reverse upwards strongly without becoming oversold or overbought immediately.
MACD: The MACD histogram is showing diminishing bearish momentum, nearing the zero line from below. A bullish crossover, if confirmed, would significantly support a bullish reversal scenario in line with the PRZ.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate technical support lies around the 1.16090 level, strengthened by a rising trend line.
Resistance: Short-term resistance is observed near 1.17400, represented by recent swing highs.


Conclusion and Consideration:
EUR-USD price action suggests potential bullish opportunities as it approaches a strong confluence of support around 1.16090. Traders should carefully watch this area for signs of bullish reversals, supported by MACD and RSI indicators showing waning bearish momentum. However, given significant fundamental news events scheduled today for both EUR and USD, market participants should expect heightened volatility and exercise risk management accordingly.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.10.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.16.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD pair is set for increased volatility today as both eurozone and U.S. economic data and events unfold. In the morning, the euro saw relatively stable releases, with Italy’s trade balance slightly beating expectations and the overall eurozone trade surplus remaining strong. Germany’s 30-year bond auction and the Bundesbank’s Monthly Report added to the euro-side focus. On the U.S. side, a heavy data schedule begins with slightly higher-than-expected Core PPI and PPI figures, followed by key releases like industrial production, capacity utilization, and crude oil inventories. Later in the day, the Beige Book and several speeches from FOMC members, including Barkin, Barr, Daly, Cook, Waller, and others, could offer new insights into the Fed’s rate outlook. With additional data on retail sales, unemployment claims, and housing sentiment also on the calendar, market participants should expect active trading in EUR/USD throughout the day.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD on the H4 timeframe is currently exhibiting a sharp bearish move following a period of sideways consolidation near recent highs. Price action has broken decisively below the lower Bollinger Band, signaling a potential shift in momentum after failing to sustain its bullish structure. This move comes after a series of lower highs, indicating growing selling pressure. The recent breakdown has pushed the pair below previous support levels, and the current candle shows strong bearish follow-through. The RSI is hovering near the oversold threshold, reflecting the strength of the downward move but also cautioning against potential short-term exhaustion. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram continues to build negative momentum, supporting the bearish outlook. Given this technical setup, the pair may be entering a bearish continuation phase. However, with price now extended below the Bollinger Band, a temporary pullback or consolidation could occur before any further decline. Traders should monitor for either a confirmation of the breakdown with sustained lower closes or a potential mean reversion back toward the middle band.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price has broken below the lower Bollinger Band, reflecting strong bearish momentum and increased volatility. The bands had recently begun to expand following a period of contraction, suggesting a potential breakout has already started. Continued movement below the lower band may confirm a downside extension, while any pullback toward the middle band could encounter resistance.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is hovering just above the 30 level, nearing oversold territory. This indicates strong bearish pressure, but also warns of potential exhaustion if selling continues without a pause. A break below 30 would confirm oversold conditions, while a bounce could suggest a short-term corrective move.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is in negative territory and continues to decline, showing building bearish momentum. The MACD line remains below the signal line, reinforcing the current downtrend. Unless a crossover occurs or histogram bars begin to contract, the bearish bias remains intact.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The recent breakdown area near 1.1600 now acts as immediate support. This level has previously served as a pivot zone during earlier price consolidation. A confirmed move below this support could expose the next downside target around 1.1500, which aligns with the mid-June consolidation zone and lower Bollinger Band extension.
Resistance: The 1.1675–1.1700 zone serves as the immediate resistance, marking the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range. This area also coincides with the middle Bollinger Band, reinforcing its technical significance. A break above this resistance would suggest easing bearish pressure, with the next upside target around 1.1775, near recent swing highs and prior rejection points.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD pair is at a critical juncture, with both fundamental and technical factors pointing toward heightened volatility in the near term. From a fundamental standpoint, a packed U.S. economic calendar and key Fed communications could significantly sway market sentiment, particularly as inflation and growth data continue to shape rate expectations. On the technical front, the sharp bearish breakdown below key support and the lower Bollinger Band, alongside weakening momentum indicators, suggests the potential for further downside. However, oversold conditions on the RSI and extended price action may prompt a temporary pullback or consolidation. Traders should remain alert to evolving macroeconomic signals and price behavior around the 1.1600 support and 1.1675–1.1700 resistance zones, as these levels may determine the next directional move for the pair.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.16.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.24.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD currency pair today faces key economic indicators from both the Eurozone and the United States, potentially driving volatility. The upcoming releases include consumer sentiment from NIQ, unemployment rates, and several critical PMI readings from S&P Global, expected to significantly impact the EUR’s strength. Similarly, the USD may experience volatility with upcoming PMI data from manufacturing and services sectors and new home sales data. Traders should closely monitor these releases as they provide insight into economic health and consumer confidence, influencing the short-term direction of EUR-USD.


Price Action:
The EUR vs. USD H4 analysis indicates a robust bullish price action. After a prolonged corrective move, price reacted positively to the long-term ascending trendline support, recently breaking above the correction’s resistance line. The clear bullish candle breakout suggests strong bullish momentum. Moreover, given the RSI divergence confirming the bullish strength, the previous swing high before the correction emerges as a probable price target.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR indicator has shifted below the current price action, confirming bullish momentum. Dots positioned beneath candlesticks indicate a clear upward trend continuation signal for EURUSD on the H4 timeframe.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI stands at approximately 69.36, nearing overbought conditions but notably displaying a bullish divergence against recent price lows. This divergence underlines solid bullish momentum, suggesting potential further gains before significant corrections.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator, currently around 89.99, indicates strongly overbought conditions. Despite this, it continues to reflect bullish strength. Traders should remain vigilant for possible short-term retracements due to overextended price conditions.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at the recent breakout point near 1.1665, aligning with the ascending trendline support.
Resistance: Initial resistance is observed at the recent swing high around 1.1795; overcoming this level could open the pathway toward higher resistance at approximately 1.1845.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD H4 timeframe technical analysis favors bullish continuation, supported by decisive price action and confirming indicators like RSI divergence and Parabolic SAR signals. Despite strong bullish sentiment, traders should exercise caution considering the overbought signals from the Stochastic oscillator. Upcoming economic releases for EUR and USD warrant careful attention due to their potential to create substantial volatility and directional changes.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.24.2025

 

[FXGlory Ltd]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 07.30.2025

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today’s EUR/USD analysis is framed by multiple Eurozone macroeconomic indicators due for release. With data on consumer spending, GDP, and retail sales scheduled, traders are closely watching for signs of economic resilience. A stronger-than-forecast reading would typically be bullish for the euro, especially from the INSEE and Destatis GDP reports. Meanwhile, the USD awaits impactful data later in the week, including ADP employment data and crude oil inventories, which may shift the Fed’s interest rate expectations. For now, mixed macro signals leave EUR/USD highly sensitive to incoming figures and central bank sentiment, particularly in light of persistent inflationary concerns across the Eurozone and potential Fed policy adjustments.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD pair on the H4 timeframe has initiated a sharp bearish correction from the 1.17300 peak, losing approximately -2.14% since the start of the week. After a strong downward move, price action found temporary support near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.15300. This has led to two green candles forming, suggesting a short-term rebound. However, the current downtrend structure remains dominant, with lower highs and lower lows evident. If the price fails to break through the resistance at the 38.2% (1.15820) or 50.0% (1.16250) retracement levels, a renewed decline could target the 0.0% Fibonacci level around 1.14500.


Key Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages: The 9-period EMA (blue) has decisively crossed below the 17-period EMA (orange), confirming the bearish shift in momentum on the EUR-USD H4 chart. This crossover early in the week has continued to guide price lower, acting as dynamic resistance during minor pullbacks.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are firmly positioned above the recent H4 candles, affirming bearish momentum. The indicator has been consistent in signaling downward price action and will remain a key reference point until a reversal signal forms below price.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is strongly negative, with the MACD line at -0.004621 and the signal line at -0.002724. This widening gap suggests persistent downside pressure. However, traders should monitor for potential MACD convergence if upward corrective movement continues in the next few candles.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The key short-term support lies around the 1.15300 zone, coinciding with the 23.6% Fibonacci level. A break below this level could accelerate the move toward the 0.0% retracement near 1.14500.
Resistance: Immediate resistance stands at 1.15820 (38.2% Fib level). A further upside correction could face resistance at 1.16250 (50.0% Fib), with the stronger bearish barrier remaining around the 1.16700 region.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD H4 chart technical analysis signals a prevailing bearish bias, reinforced by the moving averages crossover, downward MACD momentum, and Parabolic SAR positioning. Although the pair shows a temporary bounce from 1.15300 support, any upward retracement toward the 38.2% or 50.0% Fibonacci levels may encounter renewed selling pressure. From a fundamental standpoint, key EUR economic data today may introduce volatility, but until significant bullish catalysts emerge, bears remain in control. Caution is advised for long positions unless confirmed by reversal signals.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
07.30.2025