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Forex Forum EUR/USD, GBP/USD Technical Analysis Nov 4 2021


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The Euro has clearly been in a downtrend since May, with it primarily carving out short-term lower-lows and lower-highs. Another lower-low could be in the works here very shortly. A break below 11524 will do the trick for getting EUR/USD to a new cycle low.

It will be interesting, though, to see how a new low is treated as we will quickly see the March 2020 spike-high tested, a significant point in time. That level arrives at 11495, a mere 29 pips below the October low.

Moreover, All things been equal, this is a market that I think has a significant amount of support near the 1.15 level that extends to the 1.1550 level. Because of this, I think we are getting relatively close to a bit of a bottom, lease in the short term.

A lot of this will come down to whether or not the jobs number comes in as expected, or if it is a huge miss. I anticipate that the next 24 hours could be a bit noisy, but at the end of the day we need to pay close attention to the 1.15 level to give us a bit of a “heads up as to whether or not the Euro could save itself, or if we are suddenly going to see a huge run into the greenback.

At this point, I would suggest that it looks likely that the Euro will probably be a bit weaker than some of the others, but as you know, if you can get the US dollar correct, quite often you can get the entire Forex market right, you can get the entire market right. If we can break above the 1.16 level on a daily close, then it is likely that we could build up a little bit of momentum to go higher.

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On the other hand, GBP/USD is looking fragile around current levels, with a 15 basis point rate increase to 0.25% by the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee today still fully priced in by the markets. This suggests that there is little chance of the BoE releasing a surprise hawkish move. However, the markets have already priced in further increases in the UK Bank rate to 1.00% by August 2019.

As I wrote HereTuesday Economics are not for everyone. As sureThe UK rates will rise as the markets adjust. According to polls conducted by Bloomberg and Reuters news agencies, analysts were asked for their opinions. They were roughly evenly split between those who expected a rate increase and those who predicted no change. It is not clear if the MPC voters will reach a unanimous verdict, which seems unlikely.

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