HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 30th September 2025.

US Stock Futures Flat as Shutdown Looms; Gold Prices Hit Record High.

Trading Leveraged products is Risky

US stock futures held near unchanged levels on Tuesday, with investors bracing for the possibility of a US government shutdown as early as Wednesday.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq 100 were little changed. A Monday meeting between PresidentDonald Trump and Democratic leaders ended without progress on a funding deal, leaving Congress until 12:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday to avert a shutdown. Vice President JD Vance warned after the talks: ‘I think we’re headed to a shutdown.’

If the government closes, the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) will cease operations, delaying critical data releases on jobs and inflation. This comes at a sensitive time for the Federal Reserve, which is weighing further interest rate cuts. Only one of the agency’s 2,055 employees would remain active during the shutdown.

The immediate focus is whether the September jobs report, due Friday, will be released. With the Fed having already delivered its first rate cut of the year, investors are counting on this report to guide expectations for more cuts. However, divisions among policymakers and mixed data have already cast doubt on a clear path forward.

Despite political deadlock and new tariffs announced Monday, Wall Street managed modest gains to start the week. Investors are also watching for Nike’s earnings after Tuesday’s close, along with the latest job openings data from the BLS.

Asian Markets Trade Cautiously

* Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged down less than 0.1% to 45,023.48.
* Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was steady at 26,624.16.
* China’s factory activity data disappointed, signalling persistent weakness as trade tensions with the US weigh on exports.
* Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.4% to 3,878.88.

* Australia’s ASX 200 gained 0.1%, while South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.2%.
While past shutdowns had minimal market impact, analysts warn that this one could delay critical economic data, adding fresh uncertainty. Some also note that the administration may pursue large-scale federal layoffs, amplifying risks.

Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management commented: ‘It feels as though traders have picked apart every angle of the shutdown story, but with less than a day before Washington shuts down, the theme refuses to die.”’

Wall Street Recap: Tech Stocks Lead Gains

On Monday, Wall Street closed higher as technology stocks rebounded.

* S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 6,661.21.
* Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.1% to 46,316.07.
* Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.5% to 22,591.15.

Amazon gained 1.1% after sharp losses last week, while Microsoft rose 0.6%, helping lift the broader market.

The focus now turns to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which could sway the Fed’s rate-cut path. Strong job numbers may reduce the likelihood of further cuts, while weak data could heighten recession fears.

Separately, Electronic Arts (EA) surged 4.5% after confirming a $55 billion all-cash buyout, the largest deal of its kind to take a company private.

Gold Prices Hit Another Record High

Gold prices continued their record-breaking rally on Tuesday, extending Monday’s surge as the looming US government shutdown added to economic uncertainty.

Spot gold jumped as much as 0.9% to $3,867.25 per ounce, surpassing the previous session’s record close.

The lack of progress in Washington has fueled fears that a shutdown could block the release of crucial data, complicating the Fed’s monetary policy decisions ahead of its next meeting.

Meanwhile, industry news added to gold market focus: Newmont Corp. confirmed the departure of CEO Tom Palmer at year-end, while Barrick Mining Corp. announced the surprise exit of Mark Bristow. Both companies are the world’s largest gold producers.

Gold has surged 47% year-to-date, on pace for its biggest annual gain since 1979, driven by central-bank buying and Fed rate cuts. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank expect the rally to extend further.

US Treasuries gained on Monday, while the US dollar weakened, supporting bullion. Lower bond yields make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive, and a softer dollar reduces costs for global buyers.

Silver, Platinum, and Palladium in Focus

Other precious metals saw mixed trading on Tuesday:

* Silver and platinum paused after multi-year highs but remain up 63% and 76% year-to-date.
* Palladium held firm, supported by supply shortages.
* Tight markets have driven lease rates for silver, platinum, and palladium sharply higher, signaling dwindling inventories in London.
* Inflows into ETFs backed by these metals have added to the supply crunch.

Oil and Currency Markets

In energy trading, crude oil prices slipped:

* WTI crude fell 45 cents to $63.00 per barrel.
* Brent crude declined 51 cents to $66.58 per barrel.

In currency markets:

* The US dollar eased to 148.54 yen from 148.60.dwindling inventories in London.
* The euro slipped to $1.1725 from $1.1727.

Markets remain on edge as the US shutdown deadline approaches, with gold prices surging to record highs, US stock futures flat, and global markets cautious. Investors now await Friday’s jobs report, which could shape the Fed’s path on interest rate cuts and set the tone for the weeks ahead.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 1st October 2025.

Gold Shines Bright: Record Surge Amid Fed Uncertainty and US Shutdown.

Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Gold prices surged to an all-time high on Wednesday, climbing above $3,875 an ounce, as the United States entered its first government shutdown in seven years. The metal’s rally, fueled by central bank demand, ETF inflows, and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts, highlighted mounting investor anxiety over political gridlock and economic disruption. While gold stole the spotlight, Asian stock markets delivered a mixed performance, with Japan sliding on political uncertainty and Chinese markets closed for the weeklong National Day holiday.

Asian Stock Markets Mixed Amid Japan’s Political Transition

Asian equities moved in different directions on Wednesday, with trading volumes thinner as China’s mainland markets remain closed from October 1–8 for the National Day holiday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell 1.2% to 44,411.26 after the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey showed a slight improvement in business sentiment among major manufacturers. The results reinforced expectations that the BOJ may raise interest rates soon, as inflation has consistently stayed above the central bank’s 2% target.

Uncertainty also lingered in Japan, with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party set to appoint a new leader and prime minister to replace Shigeru Ishiba later this week.

Elsewhere in the region, South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.8% to 3,450.62, while Taiwan’s Taiex advanced 1.3%, supported by strong buying in semiconductor shares. In contrast, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.4% to 8,812.90. The People’s Bank of China said it will inject liquidity through a 1.1 trillion yuan ($160 billion) reverse repo operation on October 9, aimed at supporting consumer spending and business investment.

US Shutdown Fuels Gold Price Surge to Record Levels

The spotlight was on gold prices, which climbed to a historic $3,875.53 an ounce, extending gains for a fifth straight session. The rally came as the US government entered a shutdown after lawmakers failed to pass a temporary funding bill. Federal agencies were instructed to implement “orderly closure” plans, threatening to delay the release of key economic data, including the crucial non-farm payrolls report scheduled for Friday.

So far in 2025, gold has soared over 47%, putting it on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979. The surge has been fueled by central bank buying, ETF inflows, and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts. According to Bloomberg data, gold-backed ETFs saw their largest monthly inflows in three years this September.

Silver also rallied, jumping as much as 2% to $47.56 an ounce, less than 5% from its all-time high, and is now up over 60% this year amid tight supply and robust investor demand. By early afternoon in Singapore, spot gold traded slightly lower at $3,864.60 an ounce, while silver gained nearly 1%. Platinum and palladium moved lower.

Federal Reserve Policy Uncertainty Adds to Volatility

Markets are closely watching signals from the Federal Reserve. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said additional rate cuts may be needed due to labor market weakness, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan cautioned against easing too quickly, pointing to persistent inflation.

Concerns over central bank independence also weighed on sentiment. Attorneys for Fed Governor Lisa Cook petitioned the US Supreme Court last week to block President Trump’s effort to remove her from office.

Meanwhile, the US labor market remains under scrutiny. Job openings in August were little changed from July, keeping conditions in a “low-hire, low-fire” state. A separate survey showed consumer confidence fell below expectations, reflecting worries about high inflation and weaker job prospects.

Wall Street Extends Gains Despite Shutdown

Despite political turmoil, US stocks posted gains. The S&P 500 climbed 0.4% to 6,688.46, marking its fifth consecutive monthly advance after setting a record last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% to a new record of 46,397.89, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.3% to 22,660.01.

The shutdown has cast uncertainty over future data releases. The Department of Labor confirmed that the Bureau of Labor Statistics would suspend operations during the closure, delaying key reports. The agency was already under pressure following President Trump’s dismissal of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer in August, after July data revealed slower hiring trends. Adding to the turmoil, the White House withdrew the nomination of E.J. Antoni to lead the bureau, according to Associated Press sources.

Commodities and Currency Markets

In energy markets, oil prices remained subdued, pressuring energy shares. Baker Hughes dropped 3.6%, while Schlumberger fell 2.1%. Early Wednesday, US crude edged up 11 cents to $62.48 per barrel, and Brent crude rose 12 cents to $66.15 per barrel.

In forex trading, the US dollar ticked up to 147.98 yen from 147.94 yen, while the euro inched higher to $1.1738 from $1.1734.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 2nd October 2025.

Gold Attempts Another Push Higher! Government Shutdown Starts Layoffs.

Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Gold breaks through records on Wednesday and continues to rise on Thursday as the government shutdown triggers furloughing plans. Gold has now risen more than 45% this year and is the best-performing metal after Palladium and Silver. The latest price drivers continue to be potential interest rate cuts, a weak US Dollar and the US government shutdown.

US Government Shutdown

Investors are watching closely as parts of the US government shut down yesterday after Republicans and Democrats disagreed on new funding, mainly over tax breaks tied to Obamacare. Republicans, despite holding a majority, couldn’t pass a stopgap bill to keep funding through November, falling short by about a dozen votes. The result: roughly 750,000 federal workers are being furloughed, with some possibly facing permanent job losses.

The White House had previously warned the Democratic members of the Senate that if the budget does not pass, they will use the government shutdown to lay off nonessential government employees.

The Securities and Exchange Commission has furloughed 90% of staff, and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission is down to 6%. IPOs and crypto ETFs will likely stall, while the Federal Reserve and FDIC keep running due to independent funding. Nonetheless, the shutdown can trigger economic strain and, as a result, it puts the economy at a greater risk of a downturn.

The consequence of this is a lower market sentiment and expectations of more frequent interest rate cuts. Both are known to be positive for Gold and so far have helped Gold rise to an all-time high.

Gold (XAUUSD) - Technical Analysis

After Gold rose to an all-time high on Wednesday, the price fell, particularly as the European Session overlapped the US. However, technical analysts are keen to point out that the decline is similar to previous retracements and continues to remain significantly higher than the previous low. For this reason, the price is not yet indicating a correction back to $3,791 or $3,721.

In fact, Gold’s price is currently again on the rise and has regained 73% of the retracement. For this reason, technical indicators are again pointing towards the continuation of the upward trend. If the government shutdown indeed continues for a considerable period, the potential for further upward price movement can rise.

XAUUSD 30-Minute Chart

According to price momentum indicators, if the price remains above $3,989.63, buy signals are likely to remain. However, if the price falls below $3,852.00, sell signals may materialise.

The Federal Reserve

The Fed’s next move on monetary policy is still unclear. Last month, it cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, leading many to expect a continued “dovish” stance. But since then, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials have shifted to a cautious, wait-and-see approach, citing rising consumer prices and a cooling job market. Their comments lowered expectations for more rate cuts this year, disappointing traders.

However, regardless of the Fed Chairman’s forward guidance, investors still expect a dovish stance. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 98% chance that the Fed will cut rates in October and December. If the Fed makes those cuts, Gold and buyers will likely benefit.

Key Takeaways:

* Gold surged over 45% this year, hitting record highs, fueled by rate cut bets and a weaker dollar.
* The US government shutdown furloughed 750,000 workers, with Republicans failing to pass a stopgap funding bill.
* The SEC and CFTC drastically reduced staff, stalling IPOs and crypto ETFs, while the Fed and FDIC remain operational.
* Investors expect Fed rate cuts in October and December, boosting gold’s momentum despite cautious comments from Powell.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 3rd October 2025.

US Government Shutdown: Market Fallout, Dollar Outlook, and Gold’s Rally.

Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Investors Brace for Economic Fallout

The United States government has officially entered its first shutdown in nearly seven years after lawmakers failed to agree on a funding bill. The development has unsettled global investors, with US equity futures slipping and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropping 0.1% after the midnight deadline passed.

Federal agencies have been ordered to suspend nonessential services, putting hundreds of thousands of employees on hold and creating uncertainty across vital public programs. Unlike past shutdowns that ended quickly, this standoff looks more severe and could inflict lasting damage on the US economy.

Labour Market and Economic Data Risks

The most immediate challenge is the suspension of government data releases. Reports on jobless claims, factory orders, and September payrolls will not be published, depriving markets of key signals to assess economic growth and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.

“This shutdown could prove more disruptive than usual because of the heightened stakes leading into it,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.

Market Reactions So Far

* Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1% and S&P 500 contracts dropped 0.8%.
* The 10-year Treasury yield rose one basis point to 4.16%.
* The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) jumped to 17.28, signalling higher risk aversion.

With stock valuations already stretched after a long bull run, analysts warn that any sharp downturn could trigger forced selling, amplifying losses.

Safe-Haven Demand: Gold, Treasuries, and Currencies

If the shutdown drags on, investors may seek refuge in defensive assets:

* Gold prices have surged to record highs near $4,000, supported by dollar weakness.
* The Japanese yen and the euro could benefit further if the dollar continues to retreat.
* Long-dated Treasuries may attract buyers on expectations of weaker growth.

“Given high yields, US Treasuries remain attractive, and we advise clients sensitive to shutdown risk to increase exposure,” said Monica Guerra of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

Sector-by-Sector Impact

Defence: Defence giants such as RTX, L3Harris Technologies, and AeroVironment have benefited from strong federal spending. While analysts expect little direct impact, investor sentiment could cool. General Dynamics was recently upgraded to a “buy” on the view that any pullback may present an entry opportunity.

Government Services & Airlines

* Consulting firms like Booz Allen Hamilton, Leidos, and CACI International often see revenue delays during shutdowns.
* Airlines, which rely on government travel for up to 2% of annual revenue, could be hit harder. Reduced leisure travel by unpaid federal workers may further weaken the industry.

Cyclical Sectors: Industrials and financials are especially vulnerable if growth slows and unemployment rises. Caterpillar, Deere, and major banks like JPMorgan Chase may face volatility, while consumer-focused firms such as Affirm Holdings could see sharper swings.

Bloomberg Economics projects that 640,000 federal workers could be furloughed, pushing unemployment to 4.7%. Permanent job cuts, as threatened, may keep joblessness elevated even after operations resume.

Outlook: Volatility Ahead

Historically, shutdowns have had limited long-term impact on Wall Street. On average, the S&P 500 has barely moved during the last 20 shutdowns. However, near-term volatility is expected, particularly if data releases are delayed.

Private reports, such as ISM manufacturing and services surveys, will likely gain importance for traders navigating uncertainty.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 10th October 2025.

Stronger US Dollar Pressures Oil and Gold as Fed Divisions Deepen.

Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Oil prices significantly fell on Thursday after increasing in value throughout the month so far. The stronger price of the US Dollar is now harming the price of oil, as well as de-escalations in global conflicts. Is the Dollar’s current trend likely to continue, and what would that mean for commodities such as Oil?

US Dollar

When it comes to the US Dollar, investors continue to price in the FOMC Meeting Minutes for September. The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, but policymakers were divided on the path ahead. However, the Meeting Minutes confirm several members of the committee supported further monetary easing, arguing that the risks of a weakening labour market outweigh inflation concerns and noting that recent White House tariff changes are unlikely to fuel price growth.

Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams said he would not oppose further rate reductions to support employment, but warned that if inflation remains well above the 2% target and proves difficult to contain, it could inflict serious harm on the US economy. Regardless of this, economists continue to believe the Federal Reserve will cut in October and most likely again in December. Currently, the lower interest rates are the largest risk and downward force for the US Dollar.

The upward price pressure is partially due to the US government shutdown, which is triggering a lower risk appetite. The latest development for the US Dollar is the currency swap between the US and the Central Bank of Argentina. The move is, in a sense, a bailout for the country, which has seen its GDP growth fall to -1.7%.

US Dollar Index Daily Chart

Investors should be cautious of the resistance level at 99.90 on the US Dollar Index. If the index rises above this level, it will be the highest the US Dollar has been since May.

Crude Oil

Oil prices have risen recently due to the OPEC+ decision to raise output by only 137,000 barrels per day, well below analysts’ expectations of a 274,000–411,000 barrel increase. However, the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which took effect yesterday, has limited further upside. Under the agreement, hostilities will end, Israel will partially withdraw troops from Gaza, and Hamas will release its hostages.

In addition to this, no further escalations have been made in Eastern Europe by Russia. As a result, the upward pressure in Oil prices has significantly fallen. In addition to this, the more expensive US Dollar also makes Oil and similar commodities less attractive for buyers.

Furthermore, Gold prices fell 2.80% on Thursday, mainly due to high profit-taking and the bullish US Dollar having a negative effect. The US Dollar is pressuring Gold prices due to the well-known inverse correlation between the two.

Key Takeaways:

* Oil prices fell as a stronger US Dollar and easing geopolitical tensions reduced upward momentum.
* Fed minutes show officials divided on future cuts, but further easing remains likely this year.
* The US Dollar strengthened amid safe-haven demand, government shutdown risks, and a new Argentina currency swap.
* Gold dropped 2.8% as profit-taking and the Dollar’s rally pressured commodities across markets.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 13th October 2025.

Asian Stocks Fall as US–China Tensions Rise; Gold Nears $4,060.

Trading Leveraged products is Risky

Asian equities fell sharply on Monday after renewed trade frictions between Washington and Beijing disrupted the recent period of calm on Wall Street.

US markets ended last week lower as President Donald Trump threatened to escalate tariffs on Chinese goods in response to Beijing’s restrictions on rare earth exports, materials vital for industries ranging from consumer electronics to aerospace manufacturing.

Despite the turmoil, US futures rebounded, with S&P 500 contracts up 1.4% and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gaining 1%.

China’s latest trade data showed global exports rising 8.3% in September compared to a year earlier, the fastest pace in six months, as manufacturers shifted focus to non-US markets. However, exports to the United States plunged 27% year-on-year, underscoring the impact of ongoing trade disputes.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index slumped 2.2% to 25,700.07, while most other key regional markets also recorded losses exceeding 1%. The Shanghai Composite slipped 0.2% to 3,889.50, South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.7% to 3,584.55, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.8% to 8,882.80. Taiwan’s Taiex declined 1.4%, and India’s Sensex eased 0.4%. Japanese markets remained closed for a public holiday.

On Friday, US indices endured their steepest declines in months: the S&P 500 dropped 2.7% to 6,552.51, the Dow retreated 1.9% to 45,479.60, and the Nasdaq fell 3.6% to 22,204.43, signalling renewed concerns about the trade war’s escalation.

Trump, writing on Truth Social, criticised Beijing and hinted that a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping might no longer take place, saying ‘there seems to be no reason’ to continue with the discussions.

Losses were widespread across the S&P 500, affecting nearly all sectors, from major technology firms such as Apple and Nvidia to smaller companies struggling with uncertainty over tariffs and global supply chains.

Equities were already vulnerable to a pullback following the S&P 500’s relentless 35% rally from its April low. Analysts have long argued that valuations have become overstretched, with stock prices rising far faster than corporate earnings, particularly in the AI sector, where some see parallels to the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s.

Meanwhile, bond yields fell as investors sought safety. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropped to 4.05% from 4.14% on Thursday, following weak US consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan.

Oil markets also experienced significant swings. USOIL slid 4.2% to $58.90 per barrel on Friday, weighed down by reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, a development that could ease concerns about potential supply disruptions. UKOIL fell 3.8% to $62.73 but recovered modestly early Monday to trade near $63.58 per barrel. US crude also rebounded to $59.62 per barrel.

Dollar Strengthens; Gold and Silver Rally

Currency markets showed the dollar strengthening against the yen, trading at ¥152.22 versus ¥151.89 late Friday, while the euro edged down to $1.1605.

In precious metals, gold extended its rally, rising nearly 1% to revisit recent highs around $4,060 per ounce. The renewed strength came after a brief dip triggered by profit-taking, as investors flocked back to safe-haven assets amid escalating US–China tensions.

The dispute over rare earth exports underscored the unpredictability of trade policy and highlighted Beijing’s willingness to use strategic resources as leverage. As a result, gold once again emerged as a key beneficiary, attracting fresh demand ahead of the European session.

Silver followed suit, surging more than 2% to $51.54 after breaking above the $50 threshold, signalling continued bullish momentum.

Outlook

As the trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies intensifies, market volatility is expected to remain elevated. Investors are likely to monitor diplomatic developments closely, while safe-haven assets like gold could continue to benefit from geopolitical tensions and tariff threats.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.