HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 6th April 2026.

15 Ships Cross the Strait As Iran Consider Ceasefire.

Crude Oil reached its highest price throughout March at $119 per barrel, but it was relatively quick to fall closer to $100. However, Iran continues to target neighbouring countries' oil production facilities. As a result, Oil has been rising for two consecutive weeks and is now trading at almost $112 per barrel.

Over the weekend, Iran increased its attacks, particularly on Abu Dhabi and Kuwait triggering strong volatility. Abu Dhabi authorities said operations at the Borouge plant were suspended after debris from an interception hit the facility. Kuwait said Iranian drone attacks damaged two power plants and sparked fires at oil facilities.

Most countries observe Monday the 6 as a bank holiday for Easter, so some markets are closed and others see lighter order flow.

There are many factors pushing the price of Oil upwards including Trump’s escalating comments and the recent Iran attacks. In addition to this, OPEC’s recent report on the forward guidance of the market conditions also worries investors. According to OPEC, the region will not be able to return to full capacity after the conflict ends for over two years.

As a result, the market is likely to face tighter global supply conditions, with Russian exports remaining constrained by ongoing sanctions and Middle Eastern production also under pressure due to the recent disruptions. This combination could reduce the amount of available supply in the market and keep upward pressure on prices.

The market is attempting to reduce the stress on the supply issues within the oil sector. OPEC has made a statement publicly confirming that certain countries will boost the production levels above previous restriction. Iraq told Asian traders and refiners to continue crude loadings after Iran allowed its oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has confirmed that 15 ships moved through the Strait over the weekend after being granted access. However, it is unknown whether these are linked to Iraq. Japan is advising that two of these 15 ships are Japanese.

Saudi Arabia has increased the official selling price of its main crude grade for Asian buyers to a record-high premium. The move also suggests that buyers may be willing to pay more to secure reliable cargoes amid ongoing concerns over global energy flows and Middle East production risks.

Investors say oil is unlikely to rise above $120 per barrel if the conflict ends within two weeks. Experts believe sanctions on Russia may ease if the conflict comes to an end. They also expect supply chains to restart, although likely at lower capacity levels. However, if the conflict lasts longer, experts believe crude oil could rise to $145 per barrel.

HFM - Crude Oil 1-Hour Chart

A key development for Crude Oil will be a possible 45-day ceasefire, which is currently being discussed.

The stock market is trading relatively well in comparison to the previous week due to a possible 45-day ceasefire and the latest US employment data.

Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are currently believed to be in Pakistan negotiating a 45-day ceasefire with Iran. According to reports, a ceasefire is possible, but some sticking points remain as Iran refuses to agree on certain key points. Overnight, President Trump said on his live network that if Iran does not agree to the deal, the US will attack the country's power plants.

A deal or lack of one in the upcoming days is likely to create a lot of volatility for the NASDAQ and global stocks. In addition to this, the latest employment data did not create volatility on Friday due to limited trading but is supporting the index this morning. The Non-Farm Employment Change rose by 178,000, more than double the previous projections. The US Unemployment Rate also fell from 4.4% to 4.3%.

Key Takeaways:

• Oil rises for a second week, nearing $112, as Iran attacks energy infrastructure in Abu Dhabi and Kuwait.
• Supply risks grow as OPEC warns capacity recovery may take over two years post-conflict.
• Partial relief is seen as Iraq shipments resume via the Strait of Hormuz, but overall supply remains constrained.
• Oil outlook depends on conflict duration: ~$120 if short-term, up to $145 if prolonged.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

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Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 7th April 2026.

NIKKEI 225 Outlook in 2026.

The Japanese NIKKEI 225 has been the best-performing stock market of 2026. Despite difficult market conditions, it has still risen by more than 6%. However, throughout the month of March, while geopolitical conflicts escalated, the NIKKEI 225 was the worst-performing. What does this mean for the Japanese stock market?

The Japanese NIKKEI 225 trend was primarily supported by strong corporate earnings, a weaker yen boosting export competitiveness, and fiscal changes under a new government. Structural reforms and improved shareholder returns have also enhanced confidence, attracting both domestic and international capital.

The new Japanese Prime Minister, Takaichi, is a supporter of fiscal stimulus and a looser policy. For example, the new PM was quick to introduce more tax breaks and restructuring measures aimed at supporting Japanese companies. In addition to this, the new administration further expanded the country's benefits programme, aiming to boost consumer demand and families. As a result, investors were quick to trade the ‘Takaichi Trade’.

In addition, relatively stable monetary policy from the Bank of Japan has provided a supportive backdrop compared to more restrictive policies elsewhere. This has helped sustain liquidity and risk appetite, allowing the index to outperform despite global uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

In 2026, up to the point of the conflict, the NIKKEI 225 had risen almost 20% in a period of less than three months.

The Middle East crisis was the pivotal point at which the trend came to an end. Upon the geopolitical sphere deteriorating, the index lost all gains from 2026 and did not find support until reaching the year’s lows.

The Japanese stock market saw a larger decline in comparison to other competitors as the country is more reliant on oil imports from the Strait of Hormuz. Whereas US and European countries do not rely on that region to necessarily support energy products. A positive factor for the Japanese stock market in recent days is that Iran has allowed a few Japanese ships to pass through the Strait. Nonetheless, the crisis continues to have a negative impact on the Japanese stock market.

HFM - NIKKEI225 8-Hour Chart

Analysts remain broadly constructive on the NIKKEI 225, although expectations have become more cautious after its strong rally and the recent rise in geopolitical risk. The outlook will largely depend on how the conflict continues to develop.

If the conflict escalates further, the NIKKEI 225 may come under pressure from lower investor sentiment. However, this is something which will be a common issue throughout the global stock market. Under such conditions, the asset will see sell signals strengthen if the price falls below 53,157.60. However, a price above 53,189.00 indicates a bullish outlook based on the 75-period EMA.

If the conflict does end with the Strait being reopened, previous projections may again be relevant. A Reuters poll published on 24 February showed a median forecast of 58,500 by the end of 2026.

• The NIKKEI 225 is the best-performing major index of 2026, driven by earnings, a weaker Yen, and pro-growth policies.
• The rally reversed sharply in March as Middle East tensions escalated, wiping out earlier gains.
• Japan’s reliance on oil imports via the Strait of Hormuz makes its market more vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.
• Analysts remain cautiously bullish, but the outlook depends heavily on how the conflict develops.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 8th April 2026.

Two-Week Ceasefire Transforms Market Sentiment.

Markets on Wednesday looked markedly different from the conditions seen over the past month, with oil recording its sharpest decline in almost six years. At the same time, equities and gold posted strong gains, while bond yields finally moved lower.

The first wave of volatility was due to the comments from the Israeli and US administration on Tuesday afternoon. The comments indicated that the conflict would significantly escalate and enter a completely new phase. The US had started striking Kharg Island, while Israel hit infrastructure, while Trump also advised that they would hit power plants after midnight.

However, the price movement quickly changed later in the evening as Iran and the US came to a temporary agreement. The main reaction to this was Crude Oil falling 21% and the stock market rising on average by 4%.

The US and Iran have come to a temporary two-week ceasefire agreement, marking a significant de-escalation after weeks of military conflict. The agreement is the first made after five weeks, with both the US and Israel adding significant pressure as the deadline was approaching.

A key part of the deal is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil route amounting to 20% of global exports. Iran will allow safe passage for energy shipments through the Strait with no restrictions. In the previous week, some ships were allowed to pass but only for certain countries. The agreement was reached just hours before a US military deadline, helping to stabilise markets and reduce immediate geopolitical risk.

However, the agreement remains a short-term solution, with both sides using the ceasefire period to negotiate a lasting deal. Key disagreements remain, including sanctions and Iran’s nuclear programme, leaving the longer-term outlook uncertain. Nonetheless, the agreement is a de-escalation and market participants are focusing on this for now.

Technical analysis is for the first time on larger charts now indicating some strength within the stock market. The price movement is largely due to market sentiment improving due to the recent agreement, potential rate-cuts and lower bond yields.

HFM NASDAQ 4-Hour Chart

According to the Fed Watch Tool, the possibility of a rate hike in April is now low and the possibility of a rate cut in the summer has returned. This is having a strong impact on the stock market in general, with all global indices rising. However, most economists advise that inflation will not allow the Federal Reserve to cut rates.

Later in the week, the US will announce the latest inflation rate, where analysts expect inflation to rise to 3.5%. The higher inflation rises, the more pressure will be applied on the NASDAQ and stocks in general.

Notably, in a joint interview for The Indicator from Planet Money, two US Federal Reserve officials, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, stressed that inflation remains a greater concern than labour market conditions, reinforcing expectations of further US monetary tightening. Goolsbee specifically warned that tariff-driven price pressures, combined with rising energy costs amid escalating Middle East tensions, could trigger a ‘stagflationary shock’.

Currently, over 95% of the components within the NASDAQ are trading higher on Wednesday. In addition to this, the Put-Call ratio is falling along with the VIX (-12%). These factors indicate bullish price movement for the NASDAQ, but may not indicate a new all-time high. However, a full correction to the previous average price would see the target close to $25,191.

The price of Gold is now trading at its highest price since March 19. A key factor for the price of Gold is the decline in the US Dollar as well as lower bond yields.

Bond yields are trading at 4.2380, the lowest since March 17. If bond yields continue to fall, particularly if below 4.2000, the price of Gold can find significant support. In addition to this, the US Dollar has also fallen 1.25%, also supporting the price of the commodity.

The global gold market is currently worth about $31.0 trillion. By the end of 2025, humanity had mined nearly 220 thousand tons of gold, according to the World Gold Council. Jewellery holds the largest share at 44.0%. Bullion and coins account for 21.0%, while central bank reserves make up 18.0%. Industrial use represents 10.0%, over-the-counter investments 5.0%, and ETFs 2.0%.

HFM Gold 1-Hour Chart

• Markets reversed sharply after a US–Iran ceasefire, with oil dropping 21% while equities and gold surged.
• The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eased supply fears, but the agreement remains short-term and uncertain.
• Stock market sentiment improved on lower yields and rate cut expectations, though inflation remains a key risk.
• Gold strengthened as bond yields and the US Dollar declined, supporting demand for safe-haven assets

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.