HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 10th August 2026.

Weak NFP Hits the Dollar and Supports Gold as Markets Turn to US Inflation.

The US NFP release comes in as a surprise, pushing the US Dollar significantly lower. Due to the end of the World Cup, economists were expecting the employment data to come in weaker than expected. However, the US NFP change fell by 80,000, significantly lower than predictions. For this reason, expectations of interest rate hikes in September fell.

In response to the NFP release, the stock market found further support, as did Gold. However, the US Dollar Index fell close to a two-month low. According to the Bank of America, NFP is triggering volatility, but the upcoming inflation release will be more significant and could trigger longer-lasting trends.

The average NFP change over the past six months is 86,000, and most economists were expecting the latest release to be 75,000. However, many institutions and fund managers were expecting a figure as low as 50,000 due to the end of the World Cup. The official NFP figures fell by 23,000, marking the first time in five months that the US employment change has fallen.

Average hourly earnings increased by only $0.02 to $37.62, equivalent to roughly 0.1% month-on-month, while annual wage growth slowed to 3.2%. This is important for the Fed because weaker wage growth reduces one source of inflationary pressure.

The fall in unemployment from 4.2% to 4.1% looks positive at first. However, the overall figure confirms this does not necessarily confirm a strengthening labour market. This is because of the weak NFP figure and the decline in the labour force participation rate.

For this reason, the employment data does not support an interest rate hike despite the Federal Reserve chairman’s wish to hike. Consequently, the Consumer Price Index (inflation rate) on Wednesday will be vital for market pricing.

The July US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released on Wednesday, 12 August at 8:30 a.m. ET. The release will be the most important announcement for the Federal Reserve after Friday’s unexpectedly weak employment report.

Investors and economists are expecting the inflation rate to fall from 3.5% to 3.4% and core inflation to fall to 2.5%. If inflation falls below 3.4%, expectations for a September rate hike would likely decline sharply. Such an outcome could trigger significant market volatility as traders rapidly reprice interest rate expectations across currencies, equities, bonds, and Gold.

Over the past week, the possibility of a rate adjustment in September fell from 67% to 44%. If the inflation rate falls, the chances of a rate hike will likely fall below 30%. As a result, the US Dollar is likely to fall, while Gold and stocks find support. Bank of America has also advised that it is increasing its target for the S&P 500 to 8,000 due to higher earnings and AI.

Gold is showing strong bullish momentum, outperforming the US Dollar and experiencing higher volatility in line with its inverse correlation. Trend-based indications are also supporting a bullish bias, with the price trading above the VWAP, above its previous highs, and with clear bullish crossovers.

HFM - Gold 2-Hour Chart


In terms of technical analysis, the price is only witnessing a bearish indication from divergence on oscillators. Divergence can be seen mainly on the RSI on multiple timeframes. The divergence signal may indicate a retracement or change in the trend. However, this will need to have a clear price driver. For example, if inflation remains at 3.5%, Gold again may come under pressure in the short term.

If the price declines and comes under pressure from CPI, a possible target remains the $4,222.00 level. This level is a support area based on price action and in line with the 75-bar exponential moving average. This would also be a similar price movement to previous impulse waves. Upward price movement, on the other hand, sees a clear resistance level at $4,382.00. If the bullish price movement experiences stronger momentum, a potential target may be $4,570.00, which is the average price of 2026 so far.

• US NFP surprised sharply to the downside, with payrolls falling by 23,000 and wage growth slowing. The unemployment rate improved slightly falling from 4.2% to 4.1%.
• Rate-hike expectations dropped significantly, helping support Gold and equities while pushing the US Dollar Index towards a two-month low.
• Wednesday’s CPI release is now the key market catalyst, with inflation expected to ease from 3.5% to 3.4% and core inflation to 2.5%.
• A softer CPI reading could push September hike expectations even lower. A lower inflation rate will likely pressure the US Dollar while supporting Gold and stock markets.
• Gold remains technically bullish, with resistance around $4,382 and $4,570, while $4,222 stands out as an important downside support level.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 11th August 2026.

Gold Loses Momentum Ahead of US CPI Release!

Gold rises to its highest price since 5 June as higher oil prices reduce demand for non-yielding assets. Investors continue attempting to determine if the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates in September. Market pricing is now focused on the Consumer Price Index tomorrow afternoon and the US bond sale later in the year.

Bond yields can apply excessive pressure on Gold due to the metal being a non-yielding asset. The 10-year Treasury yield is trading 17 basis points higher on Tuesday and are close to breaking 2026 highs. The higher yields rise, the more likely demand for Gold is to fall from investors.

Oil prices have now risen for two consecutive days and continue to rise during this morning’s Asian session. Crude oil prices are now trading at their August high and are applying pressure on investor sentiment ahead of the upcoming inflation release (CPI).

Iran is demanding major US concessions before fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz, including an end to sanctions and the blockade of Iranian ports, the release of frozen assets, and compensation for war damage. This is something the US will, without a doubt, refuse. In response, the US president also added similar requests, which were not previously made.

Donald Trump told journalists that he requires Iran to pay compensation for people killed and wounded by Iranian actions, and for damages and deaths in Lebanon and Gaza. Due to this, the possibility of a deal and the reopening of the strait remains dim. This is the key reason for oil prices rising and almost forming a full bullish correction.

Higher oil prices are a particular issue due to the timing. The market had been pricing in a prolonged pause due to weak employment data and expectations that inflation will fall. However, if oil continues to increase over the next 24 hours, even if inflation does fall, the effect will not be the same.

From a technical perspective, Crude Oil remains bullish in the short term following the strong rebound above the $80.00 level. Holding above $80 would keep buyers in control, according to indicators, with $84.00 and $85.00 acting as the next potential targets. A break back below $80.00 could bring bearish signals back into focus. However, overall, momentum remains positive, but volatility is likely to depend on geopolitical developments that continue to drive the price.

HFM - Crude Oil 15-Minute Chart
Gold is actively declining for three reasons. The first is that the price is trading relatively high in comparison to recent price ranges. Due to this, investors are opting to cash in profits ahead of the CPI announcement. Investors also note that the market is experiencing a slightly risk-off appetite, also meaning investors are not looking to risk trading in the wrong direction. In addition to this, higher bond yields and a US Dollar recovery are pressuring Gold. The US Dollar has now almost fully recovered after Friday’s sharp decline.

However, the key drivers are higher oil prices and tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). The main consensus is that inflation will slightly fall from 3.5% to 3.4%. The decline is a positive for Gold, but investors continue to note that the rate of inflation remains considerably elevated. The inflation rate falling to 3.4% would be a positive sign if oil prices were also decreasing. However, due to oil prices rising again, investors would be looking for a stronger decline in order to support Gold prices.

If inflation declines to 3.2-3.3%, Gold may remain in bullish momentum and aim for the next key psychological price at $4,500. However, if oil keeps rising and inflation stays high, Gold could come under pressure again, as seen throughout 2026.

HFM - Gold 15-Minute Chart

• Gold is under pressure from higher bond yields, a stronger US Dollar, and profit-taking ahead of CPI.
• Oil prices remain bullish as US-Iran tensions reduce hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• Tomorrow’s CPI is crucial for expectations around a potential September Fed rate move.
• A softer CPI near 3.2-3.3% could support Gold, while sticky inflation and rising oil could trigger further downside.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 12th August 2026.

CPI in Focus: What Investors Need to Know Ahead of the Inflation Release.

Gold, oil, and the stock market are experiencing up-and-down swings, but the US Dollar remains in a steady correction. The price of the US Dollar Index has now fully corrected back to its pre-NFP price. Is this an indication as to what investors are expecting from the upcoming inflation release?

Investors are evaluating new information regarding discussions between Iran and Oman. Oman is acting as a mediator in talks with the US over control of the Strait of Hormuz. The aim is to open the waterway for shipping, particularly oil exports. Kuwait, Oman, and Pakistan are advising that a deal is close. However, this cannot be seen in the price movement.

This is due to reports that both sides are hardening their stance. Both sides are now advising that they are looking for compensation and the removal of sanctions. This is almost certainly not something the parties will agree to. In addition, the White House advised that the president did not travel on Air Force One during his visit to Turkey because of concerns about a possible assassination attempt by Iran. For this reason, investors do not expect shipping to return to normal any time soon.

HFM - Crude Oil 30-Minute Chart
Markets are expecting the Consumer Price Index to rise by 0.1% meaning that the US inflation rate will fall from 3.5% to 3.4%. Investors are hoping that inflation falls more than expected, due to the hawkish nature of the Federal Reserve chairman. Inflation in the US has now been above its target for five consecutive years. This can risk normalising higher inflation, which can significantly damage economic stability.

For this reason, if inflation does not decline the price of Gold and the stock market could come under pressure. At the same time, this could prompt the US Dollar Index to rise above 100.00 again. However, if the inflation rate falls by more than 0.1%, investors may price in a pause for September due to July’s weak NFP data. Certainly, the upcoming CPI release could play a significant role in determining the market’s near-term direction.

Gold is witnessing range-bound trading conditions, meaning no major trend. This reason for this is that investors are waiting for the CPI release before making any major amendments to portfolios. However, in the ultra-short-term the price of the metal is trading higher but not above yesterday’s high. At the same time, the US Dollar is also trading higher meaning investors should be cautious of bullish impulse waves unless the Dollar retraces.

Currently, the resistance level for Gold can be seen at $4,436, which would be a possible first target for Gold if CPI reads weak. A medium-term target would be the $4,500 psychological level. However, in order for Gold to rise to this level, inflation must convince traders that there will be no interest rate adjustments any time soon. In contrast, the key support level can be seen at $4,097-$4,100.

HFM - Gold 30-Minute Chart
In the short term, USD/JPY retains a cautiously bullish bias, with recent price action showing attempts to recover after the sharp intervention-driven decline. However, upside momentum appears constrained near the 160.60-160.65 area. Whether this price will be broken will depend on today’s inflation rate. Currently, the best-performing currencies of the day are the US Dollar and the Pound. The worst-performing are the Japanese Yen, and New Zealand Dollar.

According to analysts, the Japanese Yen is unlikely to see any significant improvement unless the Bank of Japan hikes interest rates twice in 2026. A single rate hike is unlikely to provide sufficient support for a sustained recovery. The current consensus is that the Bank will hike on one occasion, but this would not be enough to support a stronger rebound.

The tech-story is improving and the NASDAQ is trading close to its monthly highs. However, interest rates and inflation can derail the trend or boost it further. The performance of the NASDAQ over the next 24-hours will depend on the CPI release, Cisco earnings and tomorrow’s producer inflation. In the longer term, NVIDIA’s earnings on 26 August will also play a key role.

• CPI could set the tone for markets, influencing rate expectations and the US Dollar.
• Oil prices remain elevated as uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz continues.
• Gold is trading sideways, with the CPI release likely to determine its next major move.
• USD/JPY and the NASDAQ remain in focus, with inflation and interest rate expectations driving near-term direction.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 13th August 2026.

US Inflation Falls to 3.4% as Dollar Strengthens and Gold Struggles.

US inflation fell from 3.5% to 3.4% in line with analysts’ expectations. The decline at first had a positive impact on Gold and the stock market, but they could not maintain momentum. Even though the decline remains a positive factor for the economy, 3.4% is still seen as a considerably high inflation rate and a weak decline.

The stock market and metals experienced volatile trading as buyers and sellers competed for control. However, the US Dollar is emerging as the clear winner as the currency rises to a two-week high. With inflation falling by only 0.1% and oil prices remaining above $83 per barrel, demand for the Dollar remains strong.

Currently, the Japanese Yen is the best-performing currency due to a change in stance from the Japanese administration. However, the US Dollar is firmly the second-best-performing currency of the day, and the US Dollar Index is only 0.07% away from reaching 100.00.

Due to the inflation rate decline and weak employment data, the possibility of a September rate hike has fallen to 34%. This is considerably lower than in previous weeks. However, the possibility of a rate hike later in the year has not faded. This, along with geopolitical tensions, is resulting in the US Dollar increasing in value and applying further pressure on metals.

According to President Trump, the US is changing its tactics to bring Iran to the negotiation table. The US will now increase economic pressure on Iran rather than take military action. The renewed focus on economic measures highlights the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Iran’s position and is also supporting the Dollar. This could continue to influence oil prices, shipping activity, and broader market sentiment.

Gold is trading downwards on Thursday after rising to a new two-month high. The price has fallen to form a bearish breakout but has not yet fully formed a trend formation. On smaller timeframes, the price is trading below key moving averages, which indicates downward price movement. However, on larger timeframes, the price remains at a neutral level.

The US Dollar Index is trading close to the psychological price of 100.00. If the Dollar rises above this level, Gold may struggle to regain bullish momentum. The key support level for Gold can be seen at $4,359.55. Traders will monitor whether the price rebounds off this level. If the price breaks below this level, bearish signals may potentially strengthen.

HFM - Gold 20-Minutes
The best-performing currency of the day is the Japanese Yen, as investors price in the change in tone from the Japanese government. In terms of the USDJPY price pattern, the price is forming an ascending triangle pattern, indicating that it is not able to maintain bearish momentum. However, the pattern does not indicate a clear rise either.

Japan’s government is reportedly supportive of an earlier Bank of Japan rate hike, potentially as soon as September or October, as policymakers seek to address persistent inflation and weakness in the Japanese Yen.

The shift in government support adds pressure on the BOJ to accelerate monetary policy normalisation, particularly as recent data showed Japanese wholesale inflation remaining elevated, with producer prices rising 7.2% year-on-year in July.

For financial markets, an earlier rate hike could provide meaningful support to the Yen and increase pressure on USDJPY, particularly given the recent focus on currency intervention. Investors are now likely to pay close attention to upcoming BOJ communication.

Analysts continue to advise that if the Bank of Japan is looking to hike only once in 2026, this may not be enough to support the Yen. According to analysts, the BOJ must hike on two occasions to avoid being a victim of the carry trade. For this reason, as mentioned above, the upcoming BOJ communication will be vital for the Yen.

HFM - USDJPY 20-Minute Chart

• US inflation fell to 3.4% as expected. However, the modest decline has done little to ease concerns over persistently high inflation.
• The US Dollar is emerging as the clear winner due to geopolitical tensions. The currency is reaching a two-week high as strong demand continues to pressure Gold and other metals.
• Gold is struggling to maintain momentum, with $4,359.55 acting as a key support level. The Dollar Index is approaching the psychological 100.00 level, which may further pressure Gold.
• The Japanese Yen is strengthening on expectations of faster rate hikes due to a supportive tone from the Japanese government.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.