HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 10th September 2026.

ECB Rate Decision and US PPI: EUR/USD Outlook.

The Euro edges higher on Thursday as the European Central Bank’s rate decision edges closer. Markets expect the ECB to increase interest rates from 2.40% to 2.65% taking the main refinancing rate to an 18-month high. The Euro will be influenced by the rate decision, but also largely from the guidance given during the press conference. However, the US Producer Price Index may also impact the Euro, as the Dollar is its main competitor.

Later this afternoon, the US will announce its Producer Price Index (producer inflation), followed by the consumer inflation figure tomorrow. If the US inflation is higher than expectated and the ECB’s President, Christine Lagarde, is not hawkish enough, the Euro may decline. Currently, the worst-performing currency of the day is the US Dollar. The Euro is the third-best-performing after the Swiss Franc and New Zealand Dollar.
The 25-basis-point hike is fully priced into the Euro and European indices. For this reason, a rate hike is not adequate to maintain bullish price movement. The key for investors will be Christine Lagarde’s comments on future rate hikes and inflation in the EU.

Eurozone headline inflation jumped from 2.9% to 3.3% in August, largely because of energy prices. At the same time, Brent crude has moved back above $100, increasing the risk that energy inflation spreads into transportation, manufacturing, and eventually consumer prices.

If President Lagarde indicates that today's hike may not be enough, markets will start pricing the deposit rate at 2.75%. Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, and BNP Paribas are among those now expecting another 25-basis-point hike in December. This would be positive for the Euro and negative for European indices.

Interestingly, the ECB may raise its 2026 growth projection because the economy has performed better than expected. Stronger growth gives the ECB more room to hike without fearing an immediate recession or economic slowdown. As the EU is a net importer of oil, higher oil prices are also key to the Eurozone’s monetary policy.

From recent speeches and interviews, certain ECB members are looking to vote for a hike. These include Germany’s Joachim Nagel, as well as Isabel Schnabel and Olli Rehn. However, others are more reluctant, such as Philip Lane. Though it is vital that traders remember that developments across the Atlantic will also be key for the Euro.

Producer inflation figures can be just as important for the Fed’s decision as the CPI. For this reason, many traders are eagerly watching today’s event. Traders should note that last month’s PPI announcement prompted double the amount of volatility compared with CPI.

Currently, there is roughly a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike, while economists surveyed by Reuters still mostly expect the Fed to leave the 3.50-3.75% rate unchanged. That disagreement means that today’s inflation figure will be even more important and could trigger new impulse waves.

Analysts expect the Producer Price Index to have risen 0.4% in August and the core figure to have risen 0.3%. If the figure reads higher than the expected, the US Dollar could rise and the Euro could decline. Tomorrow’s CPI figure could also have a similar impact but may experience slightly less volatility.

HFM - EURUSD 1-Hour Chart

In terms of technical analysis, the Euro has a slight edge over the US Dollar for the time being. The price is trading above the key moving averages on most timeframes, but is also at a neutral level on the RSI. During the Asian session, the price of the EUR/USD rose but is now trading sideways. Investors are most likely awaiting for the latest data to be made public.

If the price rises above 1.16405, buy signals could start to materialise from the breakout and bullish crossover. However, traders should be cautious of the resistance levels at 1.16535 and 1.16795. However, if the PPI release pushes the price down, with a weaker PPI reading, sell signals may potentially materialise at 1.16340 and 1.16290.

• The ECB is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points, but Lagarde’s guidance on future hikes will be more important for the Euro.
• Higher Eurozone inflation and rising oil prices could strengthen the case for further ECB tightening later this year.
• US PPI and CPI will be key for Fed expectations, with stronger-than-expected inflation likely to support the US Dollar.
• EUR/USD remains technically supported, with 1.16405 as a key upside trigger and resistance around 1.16535–1.16795.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 14th September 2026.

NASDAQ Falls as AI Concerns, Fed Outlook, and Oil Prices Drive Risk-Off Sentiment.

AI companies are clashing with the White House over developing AI products. The NASDAQ fell 1.30% on Monday as Wall Street turn ‘risk-off’ due to a potential AI slowdown. In addition to this, investors turned their attention to key central bank decisions, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan.

The decline is not only seen among tech-stocks, indices globally are trading lower. The worst performing indices are the Nikkei 225, NASDAQ, and the Euro Stoxx 50. The downward pressure seen in the equity market is partially due to the talk of slowing down AI development, but also due to a more hawkish global monetary policy. The market now expects the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan to hike by 0.25% this week.

The best-performing currencies of the day are the US Dollar, Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc. The worst-performing are the New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar.
The NASDAQ saw a relatively strong and rare bearish price gap this morning. The decline is a combination of three developing stories: the AI slowdown, higher oil prices, and the upcoming Fed decision.

OpenAI was the first major AI company to call for slower development to improve safety and reduce potential future risks. After the comments by OpenAI’s CEO, the NASDAQ saw some decline but was able to bounce back the next day. However, Anthropic has now also taken a similar tone and caught the attention of the White House.

As a result, investors are not waiting for clarity, they are selling now and asking questions later. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has suggested allowing independent third-party evaluators to assess new AI systems before launch, an approach OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has also said he supports and plans to adopt.

The White House has pushed back against calls to slow AI development, with President Trump arguing that maintaining America’s technological lead over China is a priority. Trump acknowledged that some safeguards may be necessary but dismissed warnings around AI, stating that ‘whoever wins AI wins.’ His administration favours industry-led safety measures and opposes restrictions that could slow US innovation or allow China to close the gap.

HFM -NASDAQ 3-Hour Chart

The NASDAQ's price movement will now depend largely on whether the government and AI companies can calm investors’ nerves. Another key factor will be the Federal Reserve’s guidance on future rate adjustments.

The bearish price gap has taken the index down to the key support level. Downward price movement over the past month has been unable to break below this support level. If the price does fall, lower bearish indications are likely to materialise. When monitoring only the daily price movement, the price is forming a descending triangle pattern, which is known to indicate bearish sentiment. In the short term, bearish signals are likely to remain while the price trades below $29,046.85 and strengthen below $29,000.00.

A positive factor for the US Dollar is the expectation for an upcoming interest rate hike and higher oil prices. According to the Chicago Exchange, the possibility of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday evening is 90%. The rate hike is almost fully priced into the market, but not completely. Therefore, the hike could trigger volatility, but the key price drivers will most likely be the Fed’s tone and oil prices.

Oil prices have now remained above $100 for almost three days. Oil prices rose sharply at the start of the week, with Brent crude climbing above $108 per barrel as tensions in the Middle East intensified. The main concern is the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s key East-West pipeline following drone attacks, reducing an important alternative route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.

Simultaneously, continued Houthi attacks and renewed threats around major shipping routes have increased fears of further supply disruptions. If the Federal Reserve provides a hawkish tone and oil prices remain close to $100 per barrel, the US Dollar could maintain bullish price movement.

Of particular interest is the EUR/USD, which has fallen below the support level and is experiencing strong bearish price action.

• AI slowdown concerns and White House opposition are increasing uncertainty across the technology sector and weighing on the NASDAQ.
• Global equity markets are under pressure as investors prepare for potentially more hawkish decisions from major central banks.
• The US Dollar remains supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike and elevated oil prices.
• Brent crude above $100 continues to raise inflation concerns and increase volatility across financial markets.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 15th September 2026.

NASDAQ Rebound Ends as US Bond Yields Break Above 5%.

Technology stocks attempt a rebound after declining to a five-week low. However, fundamentals continue to weigh on demand as yields and oil prices rise. The US 10-year bond yield has now reached the highest level since 2007 and risen above the critical 5% mark. Oil prices also continue to remain above $100 and have reached a high of $103.45.

In addition to volatility among technology stocks, the US Dollar also moves higher and is the best-performing currency. The worst-performing currencies are the Japanese Yen and New Zealand Dollar. Market indications continue to point towards investors pricing in more frequent rate hikes, lower consumer sentiment, and higher credit risk. A key indication that investors are paying close attention to is bond yields rising to levels that indirectly contributed to the 2007-2008 financial crisis.

NASDAQ Rebound Fails as Investors Await AI Clarity​

The NASDAQ has fallen 0.30% this morning and 1% from the most recent high. Investors on Monday did take advantage of the lower purchase price, which boosted demand as a result. However, many elements continue to point towards the possibility of stock market weakness.

A key development is in the AI sector which continues to see AI companies and the White House clash. Lawmakers are developing legislation to address AI safety concerns. This includes a bipartisan group of senators working on measures that would require leading AI developers to take steps to prevent catastrophic risks.

White House advisor David Sacks advises that AI-companies are looking for the government to loosen legislation related to antitrust and reliability. According to experts, this is not likely to change, and for this reason, AI-companies will look to slow production to closely monitor risks. Traders should keep in mind that AI development has been one of the key drivers of the market’s bullish trend over the past three years. A key risk for investors is the possibility that this momentum weakens, removing an important source of support for the broader market.

In addition to this, tomorrow’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the Chair’s tone are likely to create considerable volatility. Currently, investors are pricing in up to two interest rate hikes in 2026. If the Fed hikes tomorrow evening and takes a hawkish tone, demand for stocks could fall.

HFM - NASDAQ 12-Minute Chart

Currently, the price remains below key moving averages and below the VWAP. Order flow is also indicating weakness in demand. If the price falls below $29,004.38, sell signals from technical analysis are likely to strengthen. If the price rises above $29,215.65, sell signals in the short term will be completely erased.

GBP/USD - US Dollar Rises While UK Employment Weakness Pressures the Pound​

The British Pound is coming under pressure from the most recent employment data. The UK’s monthly benefit claims have risen by almost 28,000, significantly higher than previous expectations. The figure is also a three-month high and is considerably weaker compared to the latest US NFP data. In addition to this, the market continues to expect the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday, unlike the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank.

The US Dollar Index rose 0.20% during this morning’s Asian session and is also close to forming a bullish breakout. Supporting the US Dollar is the increase in bond yields and rate-hike expectations. The fact that US 10-year bond yields have risen above 5% could trigger lower risk appetite. This could also support the US Dollar due to its safe haven-status.

The price of the GBP/USD is forming clear bearish swings and lower highs. Technical indicators also point towards a bearish bias, but investors will be cautious of the support level at 1.34630. Bearish sentiment is likely to remain while the GBP/USD remains below the 200-bar moving average at 1.34915.

HFM - GBPUSD 12-Minute Chart

Key Takeaways:​

• Technology stocks remain under pressure despite attempts to rebound from recent five-week lows.
• US 10-year bond yields above 5% are increasing concerns around borrowing costs and financial conditions.
• Oil prices above $100 are reinforcing inflation concerns and adding pressure on broader market sentiment.
• The US Dollar is strengthening as investors price in further rate hikes and rising risk aversion.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 16th September 2026.

Fed Rate Decision in Focus: GBP/USD, S&P 500, and Gold Outlook.

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, while the Middle East and the AI slowdown take a back seat. Market participants are pricing in a rate hike of 0.25% which would be positive for the US Dollar but more or less negative for all other assets. However, a key element will be the Federal Reserve’s tone during the press conference.

The US Dollar Index rose to a two-week high this morning but has since lost momentum. Oil prices also continue to rise, putting further pressure for the Federal Reserve to continue hiking in the coming months. Lastly, Gold and equities continue to remain weak, but are not currently declining.
Of particular interest to traders who are looking to trade the Dollar long is the GBP/USD. The GBP is coming under pressure from the latest weak employment data and expectations of a Bank of England pause. The Bank of England will announce its rate decision on Thursday and is likely to be the only central bank among the ‘top four’ currencies not to hike this month. The European Central Bank adjusted rates by 0.25% last week, and markets expect the Fed and Bank of Japan to do the same this week.

The Pound is not the worst-performing currency of the week nor the month, however, it is the worst-performing currency of the past 24 hours. If the Fed and the BoJ both hike and sound relatively hawkish, the GBP may become unattractive in the medium term.

Currently, the bond market is indicating a hawkish Federal Reserve, however, the Fed Chair is not likely to give concrete guidance. Nonetheless, his tone on inflation could become extremely influential. If the Federal Reserve seems willing to hike consecutively, the US Dollar could again find support and again rise above 100.000.

HFM - GBP/USD 30-Minute Chart

The GBP/USD on a 1-hour timeframe is forming a descending triangle pattern, which indicates low demand for the pound. In addition to this, the GBP/USD is trading below the key moving averages on most timeframes. In the past hour, the bearish momentum has continued to gain speed as UK inflation failed to rise above expectations. As a result, a pause from the Bank of England now appears more likely.
The S&P 500 is experiencing impulse waves in both directions as there clearly seems to be a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Nonetheless, bearish impulse waves remain slightly larger than bullish ones. Currently, the stock market is under pressure from the possibility of an AI slowdown, higher oil prices, geopolitical tensions, US-Canadian tariffs, and the possibility of multiple rate hikes.

The VIX Index trades slightly lower during this morning’s session, providing a slight positive for equities. However, the put-to-all ratio continues to indicate that sellers remain active.

In the short medium term, tonight’s Fed decision and press conference are likely to be the main price drivers. Currently, 93% of investors believe the Fed will hike tonight, but only 43% believe it will hike in October. If the possibility of an October rate hike increases, the stock market could continue to come under strain. Sell signals are likely to strengthen significantly if the price falls below $7,591.65. At this price, 65% of the retracement would have been lost, shifting momentum back in favour of sellers.
During this morning’s Asian session, Gold witnessed strong gains. However, volatility remains uncertain until the market obtains clarity from the Federal Reserve. However, Gold remains under pressure on certain timeframes despite attempting to rebound. With spot gold trading near $4,328 today, the immediate technical picture remains neutral to bearish while price stays below $4,360–$4,380. A sustained break above this resistance could open the door toward a more bullish outlook.

However, in the short term, the bullish momentum from this morning is pushing the price above moving averages and the VWAP. Therefore, on certain timeframes, the indications are bullish. If the price falls back below $4,303, bullish signals will also fade on smaller timeframes.

HFM - Gold 30-Minute Chart

• Markets are focused on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and guidance on future hikes.
• The US Dollar remains supported, while GBP/USD faces pressure from weaker UK fundamentals.
• The S&P 500 remains vulnerable as sellers stay active ahead of the Fed announcement.
• Gold is attempting to recover, but remains below key resistance levels in the short term.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 17th September 2026.

A Hawkish Fed Hike: What’s Next For the Market?

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates for the first time in three years, but what does it mean for the market? The US central bank has raised its Federal Funds Rate from 3.75% to 4.00%. Markets traditionally consider a rate above 4.00% to be restrictive. Markets are broadly interpreting the press conference after the rate decision as hawkish.

In response, the US Dollar Index rose 0.70% and is yet to form a bearish correction. Gold fell more than 3.00% due to the Fed’s stance but has since risen by 1.40%. Lastly, the S&P 500 fell almost 1.60% but has almost fully regained its losses. Nonetheless, the Fed’s hawkish stance is generally considered to be negative for both Gold and the stock market.

The Federal Reserve raised its main rate from 3.75% to 4.00% in line with market expectations. However, despite the market pricing in a rate hike, the US Dollar Index still rose 0.20% immediately after the change. The subsequent press conference and dot plot helped maintain momentum throughout the US and Asian sessions.. The Dollar has been slightly weakening as the European open edges closer.

An important factor to the Dollar’s rise was the fact that the decision was unanimous. There was a 95% chance of the Fed increasing rates, according to most exchanges. However, most economists believed some of the dovish members might stick to the decision to hold. All 12 members voted for a rate hike.

The dot plot was also one of the most hawkish signals. The September projections showed that 16 of 18 policymakers expect at least one additional 25-basis-point hike before the end of 2026. The median projection puts rates at around 4.00-4.25% by year-end, versus the new 3.75–4.00% range today. Oil prices remain above $100 per barrel, meaning that the current hawkish signal may become even stronger in October.

Kevin Warsh’s press conference was clearly hawkish, but analysts do not class it as aggressively hawkish. Nonetheless, Mr Warsh told journalists that the economy is strong and becoming more resilient over the years. In addition to this, the Fed chair told the market that the ‘the economy is not the problem, inflation is’. Lastly, this morning the former Fed governor told Bloomberg that three rate hikes over the next 12-months sounds too high.
Most economists continue to believe the Bank of England will pause but may have a slight hawkish tilt. The Pound Index is witnessing no gains or losses, while the US Dollar is seeing a slight gain this morning. Most of the Dollar’s bullish price movement was seen yesterday evening after the Fed’s rate decision. The GBP/USD will continue to be under the influence of the hawkish Fed up to the upcoming NFP and inflation data. However, in the short-term, today’s Monetary Policy Committee’s votes are likely to trigger the main volatility.

Currently, markets are expecting three members of the MPC to vote for a hike, while six vote for a pause. If only two vote for a hike, the GBP could come under immense pressure. If more than three vote for a hike, the GBP/USD could attempt a full price correction despite the difference in the countries’ monetary policies.

HFM - GBPUSD 30-Minute Chart

The GBP/USD is showing a bearish technical structure across all main timeframes. On the 5-minute chart, momentum remains negative, although the pair is becoming oversold, meaning a short-term corrective rebound is possible before sellers potentially return. The 30-minute chart shows a bearish trend, with the price trading below its key short-term moving averages and continuing to form lower highs and lower lows. On the daily chart, the exchange rate has broken beneath the 200-day moving average, strengthening the bearish technical outlook.

In the short-term, sell signals are likely to remain unless the price rises above 1.33865, and buy signals are unlikely to materialise unless the price rises above the 200-bar moving average at 1.33980.

• The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate hike in three years, moving policy into a more restrictive range.
• A unanimous vote and the Fed dot plot indicate a further hike, helping push the US Dollar higher.
• Gold and stocks initially came under pressure. Gold fell sharply and the S&P 500 declined after the decision, although both later recovered part of their losses.
• The GBP/USD is under pressure from the stronger Dollar, while today’s Bank of England vote split could drive the next major move.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 18th September 2026.

Why Is the Japanese Yen Falling After the BoJ Rate Hike?

The Bank of Japan has raised rates to their highest level since the 1990s, but the Japanese Yen is still declining? The US Dollar rose 0.75% against the Japanese Yen in the hours after the announcement. The Japanese Yen is currently the worst-performing currency of the day and the week. Why is the Japanese Yen declining?

Bank of Japan - Rate Hike Not Enough When Global Banks Outpace You​

The Bank of Japan’s main interest rate has risen from 1.00% to 1.25%, the highest since 1995. The BoJ has also hiked the fastest pace since 1990. Hikes and higher interest rates are traditionally positive for the currency. However, the Japanese Yen is coming under immense pressure in the short term.

The main reason for the decline is the split decision and the general central bank stance in September. In September, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, as well as others, took a relatively hawkish tone. As a result, economists believe most central banks will continue hiking in autumn and winter. Therefore, for the Japanese Yen to gain, the Bank of Japan needed to sound equally hawkish.

The main issue for the market was the split decision. The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank made unanimous decisions to increase rates, whereas the Bank of Japan’s voting committee saw two members vote for a pause, not a hike. Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato voted against the hike, signalling some resistance to accelerating the pace of rate increases to the fastest level in more than three decades.

Previously, investors were expecting a rate hike from the BoJ, with a further hike in December. Now, the market is likely to remove the pricing for an additional hike. Lastly, the BoJ is expected to keep rates unchanged for the rest of the year, while other central banks may raise rates by another 0.25%. This wider interest-rate gap could weaken the Japanese Yen and make it more attractive again for carry trades.

Lastly, the Japanese Yen was trading more than 5% higher against the US Dollar meaning investors looking to buy would have found the USD/JPY attractive. Technical analysis for the Japanese Yen will follow below.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis​

HFM - USDJPY 15-Minute Chart

On the 5-minute and 30-minute charts, USD/JPY remains strongly bullish following the BoJ decision. The price is clearly trading above key moving averages and at elevated levels on oscillators. Short-term momentum remains positive, although the sharp rise has pushed the market into overbought territory. Even though the RSI indicates that the price is overbought, price action will not indicate a bearish move unless the price falls below 156.870.

On the 4-hour chart, the broader recovery remains bullish after USD/JPY rebounded from 152.89 earlier this month and broke above the important 156.50 resistance area. Holding above this level would keep buyers in control, with 157.70-158.00 becoming the next area to watch. However, a move back below 156.50, and particularly below 155.45, would weaken the bullish structure and increase the possibility of a deeper correction.

GBP/JPY - Technical Analysis​

The British Pound is also one of the weakest-performing currencies of the week, and the Bank of England was one of the only central banks to pause in September.

Nonetheless, on the 5-minute and 30-minute charts, GBP/JPY is showing strong bullish momentum following the BoJ decision. Moving averages are firmly positive and momentum indicators remain bullish, although the RSI has moved into overbought territory, suggesting the possibility of a short-term pullback. Immediate resistance is around 210.10-210.35, followed by 210.70, while 209.40 and 208.80 are the main short-term support areas.

On the 4-hour chart, the broader structure also remains bullish, supported by the latest breakout above 209.00. As long as GBP/JPY holds above 208.50-209.00, buyers remain in control, and a sustained break above 210.35-210.70 could open the way for further upside.

HFM - GBPJPY 30-Minute Chart

Key Takeaways:​

• The BoJ raised its policy rate to 1.25%, the highest level since 1995.
• The Yen weakened as the split vote reduced expectations for further near-term rate hikes.
• A wider interest-rate gap with other major central banks could continue to pressure the Yen.
• USD/JPY and GBP/JPY remain technically bullish, although short-term momentum is approaching overbought levels.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.