HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 13th October 2026.

High Volatility Ahead of US Inflation as IMF Warns of Global Risks.

The US Dollar Index is falling during Tuesday’s Asian session after rising to the highest level in six months. The decline is due to falling bond yields and markets pausing ahead of the release of the US inflation rate. The US Dollar Index has been increasing in value for almost five consecutive weeks. Investors are warning that the quick rise is prompting slightly overstretched indications unless tomorrow's inflation reads higher.

Volatility in bonds, gold, currencies, and indices are also being driven by the latest statements from Broadcom and the IMF. Broadcom, the eighth most influential company in the NASDAQ and a key player in AI, has raised concerns about growing speculation in the sector. Its CEO warned that AI investing is becoming ‘casino-like’, with many investors lacking understanding and holding unrealistic expectations.

As a result, the NASDAQ and S&P 500 are declining in value, while the Dow Jones is experiencing a strong gain. This is due to the Dow Jones’s exposure to defensive stocks and the banking sector. The banking sector is due to announce their earnings reports before the market opens on Tuesday.

USD/CAD - The Dollar Loses Momentum as Investors Turn to Bonds​

The US Dollar Index is experiencing strong gains due to expectations of higher interest rates for a prolonged period. In addition, the currency is also experiencing demand due to high bond yields and its safe-haven status. At the same time, the Canadian dollar continues to come under pressure from US trade demands, weak economic growth, and political uncertainty.

A key factor that is impacting safe-haven assets is the latest IMF statement. The IMF’s statement on 13 October felt more like a warning rather than a neutral statement. According to the statement, the global economy is becoming increasingly vulnerable to further shocks, particularly as government bond yields rise and public debt remains elevated. The statement also made reference to the rising energy prices and possible AI-related market risks.

As a result, many safe-haven assets are increasing in value. These include, Gold, bonds, the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc. The US Dollar on the other hand, saw a small decline due to higher bond demand and the upcoming inflation report. Many investors will wait to see what the latest inflation figure will indicate for monetary policy.

Market analysts expect inflation to rise from 3.4% to 3.6%. If the inflation figure comes in higher, the US Dollar could again see an increase. However, a lower figure or a reading line with expectations may see the daily fall continue into a correction. Without a considerable rise in inflation, the Federal Reserve is likely to pause in October.

USDCAD - Technical Analysis​

In terms of technical analysis, on the daily timeframe, indications remain bullish, but the picture seems overstretched at such a high price. The USD/CAD has risen for six consecutive weeks, but has been struggling to rise further over the past week. Nonetheless, the shorter-term timeframes are not indicating a downward trend, and downward retracements are losing momentum. At the same time, on the short- and medium-term charts, the price continues to trade above the key moving averages.

Gold Rebounds, but Inflation Remains Key​

Gold prices saw a strong rise this morning after declining on Monday. The key drivers were the decline in bond yields for a second consecutive day, ‘risk off’ appetite, and a slight decline in the Dollar. However, traders should note that the US Dollar Index remains elevated and above 102.00. While the short-term price action remains above 102.00, gold may struggle to maintain bullish momentum.

At the same time, Gold will also be influenced by the upcoming US inflation reading. If the inflation reading is higher than expected, Gold may decline in the short term. However, a decline or slight rise will likely benefit Gold as the Fed may opt to keep rates unchanged for the rest of the year.

The price of Gold was trading 0.64% higher this morning but is retracing lower as the European session nears. If the price rises above $4,194.40, bullish indications will likely remain intact. If the price falls below $4,181.00, buy signals will be erased until bullish momentum is seen again.

HFM - Gold 1-Hour Chart

Key Takeaways:

1. The Dollar retreats from a six-month high as bond yields decline and investors await US inflation data.
2. The IMF warns of growing economic vulnerabilities, while Broadcom raises concerns about excessive AI speculation.
3. The USD/CAD remains bullish but shows signs of overextension, with upcoming inflation data likely to influence its next move.
4. Gold benefits from declining bond yields and safe-haven demand, with $4,194.40 acting as key resistance and $4,181.00 as support.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 14th October 2026.

US Inflation in Focus: Gold, Oil, and S&P 500 Brace for Volatility.

US bond yields continue to decline for a fifth consecutive day, easing pressure on stocks and gold. Though investors continue to remain cautious before the releasing of today’s Consumer Price Index. As a result, Gold and the stock market continue to struggle to maintain bullish momentum and impulse waves.

A factor that is dampening market sentiment are the higher oil prices. Oil prices, along with the inflation reading, will play a key role in determining how prices move throughout the rest of the week.

Brent Oil Prices Remain Stubbornly High​

The price of Brent oil is declining this morning but remains above yesterday’s price range. The issue for the economy is that oil prices have remained above $100.00 for an extended period as tensions in the Gulf region continue to rise. The last time the price was below $100 per barrel was on 23 September.

The conflict with the Yemeni Houthis is causing travel disruptions in Saudi Arabia. Major airlines, including Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways, have cancelled or suspended flights to the country.

At the same time, concerns about energy supply disruptions are making transportation more expensive. Shipping and insurance costs have increased significantly, adding further pressure to global energy markets.

Rising tensions in the Middle East can affect oil supplies and transportation costs, potentially pushing oil prices higher and increasing market volatility. However, this will depend on geopolitics. If the US inflation rate reads higher than expectations and oil prices rise throughout the day, the market could quickly see ‘risk-off’ sentiment. However, if prices continue to retrace lower and inflation fails to rise above expectations, market sentiment could improve. Key levels for market sentiment include $110 per barrel and $105.

Gold Falls Despite Lower Bond Yields​

Despite the cooling bond yields, Gold continues to struggle to maintain bullish momentum. The downward price movement is largely driven by a lack of demand before the inflation release. The US will release its inflation data for September this afternoon at 12:30 GMT. Investors are awaiting this confirmation before determining how to trade and change their portfolios.

In addition to the inflation reading, investors are also paying attention to the IMF’s comments, oil prices, and the Federal Reserve.

The IMF issued a statement providing a stark warning about the risk of a global economic recession. The IMF warned that US economic growth alone will not be enough to reduce the country's rising national debt and budget deficit. It called for additional measures to improve government finances.

When the economy and employment remain resilient and in growth mode the US Dollar and bonds are more attractive for investors while inflation and bond yields are high, particularly as the Federal Reserve keeps hiking. However, if a recession is imminent, the mood can change and boost demand for Gold. particularly if the Federal Reserve is no longer able to hike interest rates.

HFM - Gold 30-Minute Chart

In the short term, a higher inflation rate will pressure Gold, while a weaker reading will support Gold. Currently, technical analysis is providing a bearish bias as the price falls and remains below moving averages.

S&P 500 - The Fed's John Williams Indicate A Prolonged Pause in 2027​

The S&P 500 on Tuesday was both up and down in price movement, as it is this morning. Currently, all global indices are trading slightly higher, and the VIX Index is trading lower. This provides a slight bullish bias. However, the price movement is almost entirely dependent on the upcoming inflation release. For this reason, investors should be cautious.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said he still sees one more interest rate hike as appropriate this year. This interest rate hike is already almost entirely priced into the market. For this reason, a hike will have a minor impact. The key factor will be whether the Fed is going to continue hiking in 2027.

Williams said there are still signs inflation will slow and approach the Fed’s 2% target next year, as the impact from tariffs and an energy price shock fades. He also stated that a hike will not be necessary in 2027 if the Fed hikes in December. This could be a positive factor, but only if inflation indeed falls.

HFM - S&P 500 1-Hour Chart

Key Takeaways:​

• US Inflation in Focus: September’s CPI release at 12:30 GMT could drive volatility across Gold, Oil and global stock markets.
• Brent Oil Above $100: Rising Middle East tensions and higher transportation costs continue to fuel inflation concerns, with $105 and $110 as key price levels.
• Gold Struggles Despite Falling Yields: US bond yields decline for a fifth consecutive day, but Gold remains under pressure as investors await inflation data. A higher-than-expected reading could add further downside pressure.
• S&P 500 Awaits Direction: US indices show a slight bullish bias, supported by falling bond yields and a lower VIX. However, inflation data and expectations for future Federal Reserve rate hikes remain the main drivers.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.