Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[RoboForex Team]

USDCAD hits a four-week low after strong GDP

The USDCAD pair dipped to 1.3980 as the market fully priced in strong Canadian data. Discover more in our analysis for 1 December 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the USDCAD pair fell to a four-week low after Canada’s GDP release
• Current trend: the Canadian dollar appears strong thanks to active oil exports
• USDCAD forecast for 1 December 2025: 1.3937

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD rate fell to a four-week low after stronger-than-expected quarterly GDP data. These figures reduced expectations of additional easing from the Bank of Canada. Over the past week, the CAD gained about 0.9%, marking its best performance since May.

The recent weakening of the US dollar also supports demand for the CAD, as markets are betting on a Fed rate cut in December.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

US 500 forecast: the index resumed growth but correction risk remains high

US 500 has shifted into an uptrend, but the likelihood of a slight pullback remains high. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: US manufacturing PMI for November came in at 52.2
• Market impact: these figures are generally positive for the equity market

Fundamental analysis

The US manufacturing PMI in the latest release came in at 52.2 points versus a forecast of 51.9 and the previous reading of 52.5. This means the manufacturing sector remains in expansion territory (readings above 50.0 indicate growth), but the pace of expansion slowed slightly compared to the previous month. At the same time, the higher-than-expected reading suggests that business conditions are somewhat better than the market anticipated.

For the US 500, the impact is cautiously positive. Since the index includes industrial, technology, and consumer companies, a moderately strong PMI supports the soft landing narrative: the economy continues to grow, but without excessive acceleration that could force the Fed back into tightening. Within the index, stocks of real-sector companies sensitive to manufacturing activity may perform slightly better under such conditions.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

The market holds its breath: one report can change the fate of USDJPY

Positive US fundamental data may trigger a rally in USDJPY towards 157.50. Discover more in our analysis for 3 December 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Japan’s services PMI in Japan: previously at 53.1, currently at 53.2
• US services PMI: previously at 54.8, currently at 55.0
• ADP US nonfarm employment change: previously at 42 thousand, currently at 7 thousand
• USDJPY forecast for 3 December 2025: 154.85 and 157.50

Fundamental analysis

The forecast for 3 December 2025 considers that the USDJPY pair continues its correction, trading near 155.80.

Japan’s services PMI covers multiple industries, including transport and communications, financial intermediation, business and household services, information technologies, hospitality, and food services.

The USDJPY forecast for today appears moderately optimistic for the Japanese yen, with the PMI up to 53.2 from 53.1 previously. At the moment, the PMI is above the 50.0 threshold, which may add support to the yen.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Brent prices stuck in a sideways range

Brent quotes show moderate growth, rising to the 63.00 USD area despite an increase in US crude oil inventories according to EIA data. Discover more in our analysis for 4 December 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: US crude oil inventories rose by 0.57 million barrels last week
• Current trend: moving within a sideways range
• Brent forecast for 4 December 2025: 65.00 or 61.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices climbed to 63.00 USD per barrel on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session. The move was supported by Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and stalled peace negotiations, which reduced expectations of a recovery in Russian supply.

The US has also increased threats against Venezuela’s oil sector, adding to the geopolitical risk premium. However, crude prices remain capped by weak demand and potential oversupply. This is confirmed by EIA data showing a 0.57 million barrel increase in US crude inventories last week, along with rising gasoline and distillate stocks.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Gold enters a new rally phase, XAUUSD may soar towards 4,300 USD

With markets awaiting US economic data and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, XAUUSD may test the 4,300 USD level. Discover more in our analysis for 5 December 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• US core PCE price index: previously at 2.9%, projected at 2.9%
• Markets await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 5 December 2025: 4,300

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD price forecast shows that gold is undergoing a correction, with prices currently trading near 4,210 USD per ounce. The core PCE price index is a key inflation gauge in the US, tracking changes in prices for goods and services excluding food and energy. It reflects underlying inflation trends and serves as the primary benchmark for monetary policy decisions. The core PCE helps measure real consumer purchasing power and overall economic stability, as it is less affected by short-term volatility.

The XAUUSD forecast for 5 December 2025 assumes that the index may remain unchanged at 2.9%. However, it should be noted that this is only a forecast value, and the situation will become clear only after the actual data is published. A weaker-than-expected result would negatively impact the US dollar and trigger XAUUSD growth.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team