Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[RoboForex Team]

Deal of the century or a bubble? Brent pushes to new highs

Brent prices have reached their highs and may extend gains towards 68.50 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 10 June 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Brent has surpassed its May peak
• OPEC+ increases oil production
• Brent forecast for 10 June 2025: 68.50

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis of Brent for today, 10 June 2025, takes into account that prices have renewed their May highs, climbing to 66.90 USD per barrel ahead of the results of another round of negotiations between Washington and Beijing. Optimism surrounding the resolution of trade tensions fuels demand for commodities and reinforces price momentum.

Iran is preparing a counterproposal for the US regarding the nuclear deal. Against this backdrop and following the breakout above the recent high, Brent shows resilience despite ongoing uncertainty.

The Brent forecast also takes into account increased OPEC+ production, with Iraq lagging, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE continuing to ramp up output. However, caution remains warranted – an oversupply by the end of 2025 could weaken the market and trigger a correction in Brent prices.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

US budget blowout and inflation surprise – gold (XAUUSD) poised to soar

The US federal budget deficit could trigger a rally in XAUUSD towards the 3,400 USD level. Find more details in our forecast for 11 June 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• US Consumer Price Index (CPI): previously at 2.3%, projected at 2.5%
• US federal budget statement: previously at 258.0 billion, projected at -314.3 billion
• Current trend: moving upwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 11 June 2025: 3,400

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental XAUUSD analysis for today, 11 June 2025, takes into account that gold prices hold steady above 3,300 USD per troy ounce, maintaining their upward trajectory amid lingering uncertainty in US-China trade relations.

The XAUUSD forecast for 11 June 2025 suggests the CPI could rise to 2.5% from the previous 2.3%, but this projection may not materialise given the index has shown consistent declines in past reports. A weaker-than-expected CPI could put additional pressure on the US dollar.

Additionally, the US federal budget statement is projected to show a drop to -314.3 billion USD. The negative value indicates the budget deficit, which may further weaken the US dollar.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDCAD at eight-month low, driven by oil rally

The USDCAD pair pulled back to 1.3600. The market favours CAD strength amid the oil price rally and domestic news from Canada. Find out more in our analysis for 16 June 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

• The USDCAD pair drops to its lowest level in eight months
• Oil rally and domestic signals support the CAD
• USDCAD forecast for 16 June 2025: 1.3566

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD rate declined to 1.3600 on Monday, marking a fresh eight-month low.

Several factors bolster the Canadian dollar. Firstly, support comes from the oil price rally, with Brent prices rising due to Middle East instability. This is particularly important for Canada, where oil is a major export commodity. Secondly, there is growing speculation that the US Federal Reserve may resume rate cuts if the US economy starts losing momentum again.

Additional backing for the Canadian currency came from the announcement of an early increase in defence spending. Prime Minister Mark Carney stated that Canada would meet NATO’s 2% of GDP defence spending target in the current fiscal year, five years ahead of schedule. This news may help reduce friction in the upcoming trade negotiations with the US.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY set to extend rally: yen remains under pressure

The USDJPY pair climbed to 144.76, with the yen facing pressure from the lack of a trade deal with the US. Find more details in our analysis for 17 June 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• The USDJPY pair continues to rise for the third consecutive day
• The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged at 0.5%
• There is no progress in Japan-US trade talks so far
• USDJPY forecast for 17 June 2025: 145.13 and 145.47

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate rose to 144.76, with a variety of key developments surrounding the Japanese yen.

Firstly, markets reacted to the Bank of Japan's neutral stance on interest rates. On Tuesday, the central bank held the rate steady at 0.5% per annum. In its statement, the BoJ confirmed it will gradually scale back government bond purchases, in line with prior guidance.

Second, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and US President Donald Trump failed to reach a tariff agreement during the G7 summit in Canada.

Meanwhile, the US dollar continued to strengthen amid rising geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, increasing demand for safe-haven assets.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

GBPUSD under pressure: chance of retesting lows

The GBPUSD pair remains under pressure near 1.3440. Macroeconomic data and lingering trade deal uncertainties with the US weigh on the pound. Discover more in our analysis for 18 June 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

• The GBPUSD pair tested May lows and paused
• Investors await UK inflation data for May
• GBPUSD forecast for 18 June 2025: 1.3414

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD rate attempts to stabilise near 1.3440 on Wednesday after recent heavy selling.

Markets are keeping a close eye on Middle East tensions while also awaiting May inflation data, due later today, and a possible rate change on Thursday.

The pound remains weighed down by recent data and external factors such as US trade tariffs. Earlier, US President Donald Trump signed a deal easing some tariffs on British goods, confirming quotas and duties on vehicles and eliminating aerospace sector tariffs. However, steel and aluminium issues remain unresolved.

Today’s inflation data in the UK could show a slight decline to 3.4%, which would be a moderately positive signal. Overall, current high inflation is seen as temporary, and a comprehensive US-UK trade agreement could help reduce associated risks.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD falls below 1.1500 after Fed decision

The EURUSD rate dropped to the 1.1450 area following the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged and accompanying remarks from Jerome Powell. Find more details in our analysis for 19 June 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: the Fed left the rate unchanged at 4.5%
• Current trend: correcting downwards
• EURUSD forecast for 19 June 2025: 1.1400 and 1.1500

Fundamental analysis

Following yesterday’s meeting, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and reiterated its cautious stance. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signalled that inflation could rise in the coming months, citing the negative effects of President Donald Trump’s new tariffs.

The US central bank also lowered its GDP growth forecasts and hinted at two possible rate cuts of 25 basis points each before the end of 2025. The first cut is expected in September.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Gold (XAUUSD) enters correction as investors await Trump’s decision

XAUUSD prices dropped to the 3,350 USD area on Friday amid a pause from President Trump regarding potential US military action against Iran. Discover more in our analysis for 20 June 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: gold declines as markets await Trump’s decision on Iran
• Current trend: correcting downwards
• XAUUSD forecast for 20 June 2025: 3,340 and 3,400

Fundamental analysis

The Federal Reserve held rates steady this week and signalled two rate cuts by year-end, although Chairman Jerome Powell warned that new tariffs could continue to push inflation higher. The Fed’s latest forecasts point to weaker growth, higher inflation, and lower employment in 2025.

Israel and Iran have continued to exchange strikes. Israel intensified attacks on strategic and government targets in Tehran following reports of an Iranian missile hitting a major hospital in Israel. Investors also focused on the White House, where President Donald Trump is weighing direct military intervention against Iran, with a decision expected within the next two weeks.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team