A surprise from the Fed and US: Brent heads towards 71.70 USD
Brent oil quotes continue their upward trend and may test the 71.70 USD level. Details – in our analysis for 10 July 2025.
Brent forecast: key trading points
Brent oil price is forming a correction
US initial jobless claims: previous value – 233,000, forecast – 236,000
Brent forecast for 10 July 2025: 71.70
Fundamental analysis
The fundamental analysis for Brent today, 10 July 2025, takes into account that the Brent price, having updated June's highs, rose to 77.75 USD per barrel before forming a correction. At this stage, quotes remain around 69.70 USD.
US initial jobless claims for 10 July are forecast to rise to 336,000. The increase compared to the previous period is not critical but higher unemployment negatively affects purchasing power and may impact energy demand.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
Gold (XAUUSD) at a stabilization point: many risks, but no one is afraid
Gold (XAUUSD) price consolidates at 3,333 USD. Trump’s trade policy worries the market, but there is no panic. Details – in our analysis for 11 July 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
Gold (XAUUSD) price has changed little over the week
The market is focused on trade risks but is not yet ready to re-evaluate them
XAUUSD forecast for 11 July 2025: 3,345
Fundamental analysis
Gold (XAUUSD) price remains stable near 3,333 USD on Friday. Overall, the precious metal attempts to rise for the third day in a row. Market focus remains on demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating trade tensions.
President Donald Trump announced the introduction of a 35% tariff on imports from Canada starting 1 August and spoke about plans to introduce large-scale tariffs of 15-20% for most other trading partners. Previously, there were threats against Brazil and proposals to impose tariffs on copper, semiconductors, and pharmaceutical products.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
EURUSD under pressure: Trump hits markets with new tariffs
The US tariffs on imports from the EU are weighing on the EURUSD rate, pushing it lower. The price currently stands at 1.1666. Discover more in our analysis for 14 July 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
Trump’s trade initiative escalates global trade tensions
Markets await US inflation data due on Tuesday
Traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by around 50 basis points by the end of the year
EURUSD forecast for 14 July 2025: 1.1825
Fundamental analysis
The EURUSD rate continues to decline on Monday, consolidating below the key support level at 1.1685. The pair is under pressure from a stronger US dollar amid new statements from US President Donald Trump on tariff policy.
Trump announced a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union and Mexico, effective from 1 August. This move adds to the already tense global trade environment. Nevertheless, investor reaction remains restrained – the market increasingly ignores such threats, as their actual impact on the US dollar has been limited.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
USDJPY rises to 147.65: tariffs and data weigh on the yen
The USDJPY pair continues to climb as the market reacts to trade-related risks. Find more details in our analysis for 15 July 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
The USDJPY pair continues to rise, hitting fresh two-month highs
Further details on tariffs and Japanese economic data will provide more insight into yen movements
USDJPY forecast for 15 July 2025: 148.00
Fundamental analysis
On Tuesday, the USDJPY rate rose to 147.65, marking a new two-month high, as trade risks from new US measures persist.
Washington plans to impose 25% tariffs on Japanese goods starting 1 August, while Tokyo has yet to announce any retaliatory action. Negotiations between the two parties have effectively stalled. One Japanese official warned of potential economic consequences if the tariffs are enforced.
Investors now await upcoming trade and inflation data from Japan, which will help assess the scale of pressure on the domestic economy. In addition, market focus also turns to the US inflation report, which could influence the Federal Reserve's future rate decisions.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
In anticipation of data from the UK and the US, GBPUSD quotes may reverse and head towards the 1.3500 mark. Discover more in our analysis for 16 July 2025.
GBPUSD forecast: key trading points
UK Consumer Price Index (CPI): previously at 3.4%, projected at 3.4%
US Producer Price Index (PPI): previously at 0.1%, projected at 0.2%
GBPUSD forecast for 16 July 2025: 1.3500
Fundamental analysis
The GBPUSD forecast for 16 July 2025 takes into account that the pair remains in a correction phase and is currently near the support level of the ascending channel.
The UK Consumer Price Index reflects changes in the cost of goods and services for consumers and helps assess consumer behaviour trends and potential stagnation in the economy. Generally, if the CPI exceeds expectations, it has a positive impact on the national currency.
The forecast for 16 July 2025 suggests the CPI for June 2025 may remain at 3.4%. Any increase would support the British pound.
The US PPI is expected to rise to 0.2%, up from 0.1% previously. However, the increase is modest, and the actual figure may differ significantly from the forecast.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
Gold (XAUUSD) in consolidation: safe-haven assets out of favour for now
Gold (XAUUSD) prices are hovering around 3,340 USD. Interest in the US dollar continues to rise. Find more details in our analysis for 17 July 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
Gold (XAUUSD) quotes rose in response to uncertainty and fell once doubt was removed
A rebound in the US dollar reduces gold's appeal for investors
XAUUSD forecast for 17 July 2025: 3,360
Fundamental analysis
Gold (XAUUSD) prices retreated to 3,340 USD per ounce, reversing the previous session’s gains. The metal came under pressure as the US dollar rebounded following reduced uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve Chairman: rumours about Jerome Powell’s possible dismissal were not confirmed. Donald Trump called such a move unlikely, although he again expressed dissatisfaction with current interest rate levels.
Another factor was the neutral US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for June. The reading remained unchanged, signalling stable wholesale prices and easing concerns about strong inflationary pressure from tariffs. These new figures contrast with the previously recorded rise in consumer inflation.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
As Japan awaits the upper house elections, the USDJPY pair may continue its upward movement towards 149.60. Find out more in our analysis for 18 July 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
Nationwide core Consumer Price Index in Japan: previously at -3.7%, currently at -3.3%
Yen awaits upper house elections
USDJPY forecast for 18 July 2025: 149.60
Fundamental analysis
The USDJPY fundamental analysis for 18 July 2025 shows that the pair remains in an upward channel, having consolidated near the 148.60 level. Strong macroeconomic data from the US and political uncertainty in Japan continue to pressure the yen.
US retail sales reports and a drop in jobless claims further support the dollar – both as a reflection of domestic economic resilience and as a safe-haven asset. Expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut have weakened.
On the Japanese side, the market is pricing in risks related to the upcoming upper house parliamentary elections. A decline in the core CPI and growing political pressure on the current administration are adding to USDJPY volatility.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
EURUSD dipped to the 1.1600 area; will the decline continue?
The EURUSD rate has fallen to the 1.1600 area as part of a downward correction and in anticipation of new tariffs on EU goods. Find out more in our analysis for 21 July 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
Market focus: this week, the ECB interest rate decision is in the spotlight
Current trend: correcting downwards
EURUSD forecast for 21 July 2025: 1.1700 or 1.1600
Fundamental analysis
The EURUSD pair is declining amid a moderate recovery in the US dollar. The latter strengthens as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming meeting decrease following US inflation data and President Trump’s statement that he will not dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Markets remain focused on the new trade tariffs, maintaining some optimism that a US-EU deal might still be reached before 1 August. President Trump has announced 30% tariffs on imports from the European Union starting next month, but later expressed willingness to negotiate. In response, the EU reaffirmed its commitment to reaching a trade agreement.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
DE 40 forecast: the correction has ended, further growth is expected
The DE 40 stock index is poised to resume upward movement. Today’s DE 40 forecast is positive.
DE 40 forecast: key trading points
Recent data: Germany’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for June came in at 0.1%
Market impact: the value is neutral for the German stock market and the DE 40 index
Fundamental analysis
Germany’s PPI for June 2025 showed a 0.1% increase, matching forecasts and improving from the previous month’s -0.2%. A moderate rise in producer prices indicates stability in the manufacturing sector and the absence of sharp price surges, which reduces risks for corporate profitability within the index. This supports investor confidence in sectors such as industrials, engineering, and chemicals, as their cost base is not significantly affected by inflationary shocks.
Overall, the PPI data confirms expectations of a stable economic backdrop without abrupt inflationary spikes, which supports a positive outlook for the German stock market in both the short and medium term. Investors may expect a continued moderate rise in shares of leading DE 40 companies, while maintaining a balance between risks and opportunities.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
US 500 approached a resistance level and may enter a downward correction before resuming its upward movement. The forecast for US 500 today remains positive.
US 500 forecast: key trading points
Recent data: US Leading Economic Index (LEI) for June declined by 0.3%
Market impact: This is a negative signal for equities, as the LEI consists of 10 components reflecting future economic activity
Fundamental analysis
The US Leading Economic Index (LEI) dropped by -0.3% in June, compared to expectations of -0.2% and a flat reading the previous month. The decline in the LEI serves as a warning of a potential slowdown in economic activity over the next 6–12 months. While the drop isn’t critical, it signals a weakening growth momentum in the US economy. This could limit risk appetite in the stock market and strengthen expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The decline in the LEI, against already subdued expectations, supports a more cautious approach. In the short term, investors may rotate from cyclical into defensive sectors. If signs of slowing growth persist, this could increase the likelihood of more accommodative monetary policy, potentially supporting the tech sector.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
JP 225 forecast: the index has entered a sideways channel
The JP 225 stock index has formed a sideways channel within an overall uptrend. Today’s JP 225 forecast is positive.
JP 225 forecast: key trading points
Recent data: Japan’s core CPI came in at 3.3% in June
Market impact: this signals slower price growth, which may positively affect the Japanese stock market
Fundamental analysis
Japan’s core Consumer Price Index (core CPI) for July 2025 stood at 3.3% year-on-year, below the forecast of 3.4% and the previous reading of 3.7%. Lower inflation reduces pressure on the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy. This creates a positive environment across most sectors. Consumer companies stand to benefit the most, as the risk of falling real incomes lessens. Technology and export-oriented firms also benefit, since weak inflation increases the likelihood of continued accommodative monetary policy.
The financial sector, on the other hand, may be at a disadvantage because easing inflation reduces the odds of interest rate hikes, thus capping banks’ margin growth. Meanwhile, the construction and real estate segments may gain support amid expectations of continued low borrowing costs.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
The Fed exposed! Azoria Capital demands transparency – what is next for XAUUSD
Amid a lawsuit against the Federal Reserve and deteriorating US economic indicators, XAUUSD may test the 3,420 USD level. Discover more in our analysis for 25 July 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
Azoria Capital filed a lawsuit against the US Federal Reserve
US durable goods orders: previously at 16.4%, projected at -10.4%
XAUUSD forecast for 25 July 2025: 3,420
Fundamental analysis
Today’s XAUUSD analysis shows that gold is trading around 3,358 USD per ounce, pulling back after reaching the 3,431 USD resistance level earlier this week.
Azoria Capital, a financial management company, has filed a lawsuit against the Federal Reserve, including Chairman Jerome Powell and other central bank officials. The claim argues that the Fed violates the 1976 federal law by holding closed meetings on interest rate decisions. Azoria Capital demands that all such meetings be made public starting next week.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
USDJPY climbs above 148.00, Fed and Bank of Japan rate decisions in focus
The USDJPY pair is moderately strengthening, rising above 148.00 ahead of this week’s key monetary policy decisions from the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve. Find out more in our analysis for 28 July 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
Market focus: this week, attention turns to interest rate decisions by the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve
Current trend: upward momentum persists
USDJPY forecast for 28 July 2025: 149.18 or 147.00
Fundamental analysis
The Japanese yen is weakening moderately following trade agreements with the US. This week, the market will focus on the monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday, although markets will be closely watching for signals on a possible rate cut in September.
The Bank of Japan will announce its policy decision on Thursday. Rates are also expected to remain unchanged amid ongoing concerns about the economic impact of US trade tariffs. However, the central bank is likely to revise its inflation forecast upwards in its quarterly outlook, reflecting persistent price pressures.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
Brent prices jump towards 70.00 USD as trade tensions ease
Brent prices are on the rise, reaching the 70.00 USD area amid a trade agreement between the US and the EU. Discover more in our analysis for 29 July 2025.
Brent forecast: key trading points
Market focus: today, the spotlight is on US crude oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API)
Current trend: trading within a broad sideways range
Brent forecast for 29 July 2025: 70.70 or 67.20
Fundamental analysis
Oil prices are moderately rising, supported by the US-EU trade deal that introduces a 15% tariff on most European goods. This agreement reduces fears that new tariffs could weigh on global economic growth and energy demand.
Today, market focus shifts to the US oil inventory data from the API. An increase in stockpiles may pressure Brent prices, while a decline could offer support.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
US 500 forecast: the index set a new all-time high and began a correction
The US 500 index approached the 6,500.0 level, and with each new all-time high, the likelihood of a downward correction increases. Today’s US 500 forecast is positive.
US 500 forecast: key trading points
Recent data: US JOLTS job openings for June came in at 7.43 million
Market impact: the effect on the US stock market may be mixed, depending on the Federal Reserve’s interpretation of this data
Fundamental analysis
The JOLTS job openings figure reflects the number of available positions in the US and serves as a key indicator of labour market health. The current reading is 7.437 million, below both the forecast of 7.510 million and the previous figure of 7.712 million. This suggests weakening demand for labour and a gradual cooling of the economy. For equities, this may have a twofold impact. On the one hand, fewer job openings ease wage pressure and inflation risks, which increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising rates and could eventually resume rate cuts. On the other hand, it points to slowing economic activity, which raises investor caution.
For the US 500 index, the impact varies by sector. The technology and real estate sectors benefit as a more accommodative Fed stance makes funding more accessible and supports growth stocks. Meanwhile, the financial sector may see reduced profitability due to lower interest rates.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
JP 225 forecast: the index enters a sideways channel
The JP 225 stock index is completing a downward correction within a broader uptrend. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.
JP 225 forecast: key trading points
Recent data: Tokyo core CPI in Japan preliminarily came in at 2.9% year-on-year in July
Market impact: inflation falling below expectations may positively impact the stock market, as it reduces the likelihood of the Bank of Japan tightening monetary policy
Fundamental analysis
The Tokyo core CPI reflects inflation dynamics in Tokyo and serves as an important gauge of inflationary trends across Japan’s economy. The current reading of 2.9% is below both the previous value of 3.1% and the forecast of 3.0%. This indicates that inflationary pressure is easing, which could significantly influence the Japanese stock market, including the JP 225 index.
Inflation falling below expectations may boost the stock market as it lowers the likelihood of the Bank of Japan tightening its monetary policy. Investors may interpret this as a sign that the BoJ will continue with a loose monetary stance (low interest rates), which typically supports equities. However, the central bank has previously indicated plans to raise the key rate instead.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
Gold (XAUUSD) strengthens despite pressure from the US dollar
XAUUSD quotes are attempting to recover, supported by technical factors and sustained demand. Prices currently stand at 3,292 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 1 August 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
Gold demand in Q2 2025 reached 1,080 tonnes
Central banks reduced purchases but remain key buyers
Jewellery consumption dropped to 2020 levels
XAUUSD forecast for 1 August 2025: 3,375
Fundamental analysis
XAUUSD prices are rising for the second consecutive day, with buyers keeping prices above the lower boundary of a large Triangle pattern. Despite this local recovery, the precious metal remains under pressure from a stronger US dollar, which gained after Donald Trump announced plans to impose higher tariffs on several countries.
According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand in Q2 2025 reached 1,080 tonnes, up 10% from the same period last year. Central banks continue to play a significant role despite slightly lower purchase volumes. In contrast, the jewellery segment showed weak dynamics, with consumption nearly returning to 2020 pandemic levels.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
USDJPY plunges, Bank of Japan remains silent, while US industrial sector hits negative records
The USDJPY outlook is at a tipping point. With US economic indicators pressuring the dollar, a rally towards 149.00 is possible. Find out more in our analysis for 4 August 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
US factory orders: previously at 8.2%, projected at -4.9%
Current trend: upward impulse remains possible
USDJPY forecast for 4 August 2025: 149.00
Fundamental analysis
The release of actual US employment data triggered a USD sell-off. After testing the 150.00 level, the USDJPY rate dropped significantly and currently trades around 147.00.
Japan’s Ministry of Finance expressed concern over increased yen volatility and sharp rate swings. However, the Bank of Japan believes the current JPY exchange rate does not influence inflation, indirectly hinting that a yen intervention is unlikely in the near term. The central bank also suggests that a change in interest rates is improbable anytime soon.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
US 500 forecast: index hits new all-time high and begins correction
The US 500 index approached the 6,500.0 level, and with each new all-time high, the likelihood of a downward correction increases. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.
US 500 forecast: key trading points
Recent data: US NFP for July came in at 73 thousand
Market impact: slower employment growth and a high unemployment rate create uncertainty, which may trigger volatility and investor caution
Fundamental analysis
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure came in at 73 thousand, significantly below the expected 106 thousand, although still above the revised previous value of 14 thousand. This reflects a slowdown in job growth and worsening hiring dynamics. The three-month average job growth is just around 35 thousand, marking the weakest level since the onset of the 2020 pandemic. This suggests a notable cooling in the labour market and could signal a broader economic slowdown.
This serves as a negative signal for the US 500 index, since weak labour data often correlates with slowing economic activity and declining corporate earnings. The technology sector may come under pressure, as company growth depends heavily on a strong economy and robust consumer demand.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
Bullish correction in GBPUSD slows near resistance at 1.3350
Investors remain cautiously optimistic about GBPUSD amid a weakening US dollar, with the price currently at 1.3306. Discover more in our analysis for 6 August 2025.
GBPUSD forecast: key trading points
The US ISM services PMI fell to 50.1 in July
The ISM report indicates almost complete stagnation in the services sector
GBPUSD forecast for 6 August 2025: 1.3090
Fundamental analysis
The GBPUSD rate has been strengthening for the fourth consecutive session, forming a moderate bullish correction. However, the price remains below the key resistance level at 1.3350.
The US dollar remains under pressure following the unexpected drop in the ISM services PMI to 50.1 in July, down from 50.8 in June. The market consensus had expected an increase to 51.5. The release suggests a near standstill in services sector growth, highlighting the negative impact of President Donald Trump's tariff policy.
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
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