Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[RoboForex Team]

USDJPY halts its rise: the external backdrop is improving

The USDJPY pair stalled near 157.81. Geopolitics is improving market sentiment. Discover more in our analysis for 6 May 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• The USDJPY pair paused its rise after three days of gains
• The market is factoring in improving global sentiment, but the risks for the yen remain high
• USDJPY forecast for 6 May 2026: 158.50

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate reached 157.81 midweek, ending the Japanese yen's three-day decline. The currency received support from a weaker US dollar and lower oil prices amid signs of de-escalation in the Middle East.

The US confirmed that the ceasefire remains in place, that offensive operations have ended, and announced a pause in efforts to remove ships from the Strait of Hormuz. This is intended to buy time for a possible resumption of negotiations with Iran.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

US 30 forecast: the index attempts to extend gains after a correction

The US 30 index continues to rise after a correction, retaining the potential to reach a new all-time high. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: the Federal Reserve policy rate remained at 3.75%
• Market impact: the data is positive for the stock market

Fundamental analysis

The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the interest rate steady at 3.75% can generally be viewed by the market as a neutral-to-mildly positive factor for the US 30 index, as the outcome fully matched both the forecast and the previous reading. For investors, this means no unexpected monetary policy tightening, reducing the risk of a sharp revaluation in large US equities.

This decision is crucial for the US 30, as many of the index companies operate in mature industries and depend on the overall health of consumer demand, investment, and the cost of capital.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

AUDUSD gears up for a surge as the market awaits Nonfarm Payrolls

The AUDUSD rate is awaiting the release of US employment data, with the price currently testing the 0.7225 level. Find out more in our analysis for 8 May 2026.

AUDUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 178 thousand, projected at 65 thousand
• US unemployment rate: previously at 4.3%, projected at 4.3%
• AUDUSD forecast for 8 May 2026: 0.7320 and 0.7190

Fundamental analysis

Today’s AUDUSD forecast shows that the Australian dollar is completing its correction after reaching its highest level this year. On Friday morning, quotes are consolidating around 0.7225.

The main driver of today’s volatility is another wave of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the divergence in monetary policy between the Reserve Bank of Australia and the US Federal Reserve.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Gold (XAUUSD) weekly forecast: there is a basis for growth, but more details are needed

Gold (XAUUSD) enters the week of 11–15 May near 4,700 USD per ounce after rebounding amid falling oil prices. Support came from rising expectations of a deal between the US and Iran: the market is reacting to diplomatic signals and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Weekly performance: gold (XAUUSD) gained a foothold near 4,700 USD per ounce after rebounding mid-week
• Support and resistance: on the daily chart, the structure shifted from bullish to corrective after the reversal
• Fundamentals and outlook: the baseline scenario is sideways movement

Fundamental analysis

Gold (XAUUSD) ended last week near 4,700 USD per ounce after a strong mid-week rally. The market was bolstered by a sharp decline in oil prices amid hopes for a deal between the US and Iran. This reduced inflation risks and pressure from expectations of restrictive central bank policy.

Diplomacy remains the key driver. According to media reports, Washington sent Tehran via intermediaries a framework memorandum that could become a step towards ending the conflict and gradually reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has already confirmed that it is reviewing the proposal, with a response expected in the coming days.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Brent is back in positive territory: geopolitics is setting the course

Brent prices rose to 103.03 USD, with all eyes on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Discover more in our analysis for 12 May 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

• Brent prices are climbing higher due to the ongoing Middle East conflict
• The market is on edge and is increasing the risk premium as the US shifts its stance
• Brent forecast for 12 May 2026: 103.30 and 106.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent quotes advanced to 103.03 USD per barrel on Tuesday, with the market supported by persistent concerns about the situation in the Strait of Hormuz following new statements from US President Donald Trump.

Trump said that the ceasefire between the US and Iran is in a critical state after Washington rejected Tehran’s latest peace proposal. This increased fears that the Strait of Hormuz may remain effectively closed for a prolonged period.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[Sangylee]

AUD found support in statistics. Overview for 21.03.2024

The Australian dollar has shifted to an upward trend against the US dollar. The current AUDUSD exchange rate stands at 0.6621.

The Aussie received significant support from the Australian employment market statistics. The number of jobs increased by 116.5 thousand, surpassing the forecasted rise of 40.0 thousand. The unemployment rate in February dropped to 3.7% compared to the expected 4.0%.

Earlier this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the interest rate at 4.35% per annum. It has remained stable for the third consecutive meeting. The current interest rate is the highest in 12 years.

In its commentary, the RBA refrained from signalling further interest rate increases. This shows that the RBA is confident in the inflationary outlook and sees evidence of price cooling.

Additionally, the AUD benefits from the decline in the US dollar.

Fundamental analysis for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author's private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Been watching execution closely on these moves too. In fast markets, spreads and slippage can easily mess up even a good setup.
That’s actually why I’ve been using Afterprime more lately. Fills just feel tighter and more consistent, especially when AUDUSD starts moving on news. It shows up in results pretty quickly.

 

[RoboForex Team]

GBPUSD needs a driver: the correction is over, but no new ideas have appeared

The GBPUSD pair is holding at 1.3535, with political scandals and the oil situation setting the terms. Find out more in our analysis for 13 May 2026.

GBPUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The GBPUSD pair remains in a broad range, while politics is preventing the market from choosing a direction
• The market does not rule out three rate hikes by the end of the year
• GBPUSD forecast for 13 May 2026: 1.3500 or 1.3580

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD rate stood at 1.3535 midweek. This week, the pound pulled back from almost two-month highs as political uncertainty in the UK and the lack of progress in negotiations between the US and Iran are putting pressure on GBP.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that he does not intend to resign. This comes despite demands from more than 70 Labour Party MPs to step down following the party’s poor performance in the local elections.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team