Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

[RoboForex Team]

EURUSD trades in a sideways trend

The main pressure on the European currency comes from deteriorating economic expectations in the eurozone, intensifying debt concerns in France, and the Federal Reserve's continued tight monetary policy.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The Conference Board's US economic index remained unchanged at 99.6 points in September
• The European Commission published its preliminary consumer confidence index for October, which fell to −17.9 points
• EURUSD forecast for 23 October 2026: 1.1360

Fundamental analysis

One of the key factors shaping the outlook for the European currency remains accelerating inflation amid rising energy costs. According to Eurostat's final data published on 16 October, annual inflation in the eurozone rose from 3.2% in August to 3.8% in September. Core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, stood at 2.5%.

A significant negative factor for the EURUSD rate remains the deteriorating situation in France's debt market. Amid political instability, mass protests, and disagreements over the state budget.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

The Fed keeps gold on edge: a single statement could derail the XAUUSD recovery

Gold is once again attempting to recover after its decline, supported by lower oil prices, with quotes currently hovering at 4,015 USD.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for 27–28 October
• Energy prices have fallen following diplomatic efforts to ease tensions surrounding Iran
• Another surge in oil prices could increase the likelihood of interest rate hikes

Fundamental analysis

The XAUUSD price forecast for today, 26 October 2026, indicates that gold is attempting to recover following a week-long decline, but the metal's outlook still depends on inflation risks and expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates. The upcoming meeting of the US central bank could be the key market event this week.

At the start of trading on Monday, prices gained around 0.4% after falling 4.0% the previous week. The recovery was driven by a decline in oil prices, which eased concerns about another wave of inflation.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Investors await the Fed's decision as XAUUSD trades below the psychological 4,000 level

Gold lost around 4% of its value last week, and on 23 October, prices fell to 3,975 USD per troy ounce, reaching their lowest levels since July. Quotes currently stand at 3,992 USD.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for 27–28 October
• Yesterday, oil prices began to fall following reports of Qatar's mediation efforts to ease tensions
• XAUUSD forecast for 27 October 2026: 3,900

Fundamental analysis

Today's XAUUSD price forecast for 27 October 2026 indicates that the impact of geopolitical factors on gold remains mixed. On the one hand, mounting international tensions drive demand for safe-haven assets. On the other hand, a further increase in oil prices could heighten inflation risks, raise expectations of interest rate hikes, and consequently put pressure on gold.

Movements in the US dollar are another factor affecting gold. The dollar is under pressure from declining US government bond yields. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds is currently hovering around 5%, down from 5.31% earlier in October.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

 

[RoboForex Team]

Yen loses safe-haven demand as USDJPY eyes 159.00 again

USDJPY is recovering amid waning demand for safe-haven assets and expectations that the Bank of Japan will leave interest rates unchanged this week. The pair is currently trading at 157.91.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• Improving risk appetite and optimism surrounding AI are reducing demand for the Japanese yen
• The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its interest rate at 1.25%, although accelerating inflation supports the possibility of a rate rise in December
• USDJPY forecast for 28 October 2026: 159.03

Fundamental analysis

USDJPY is recovering towards 158.00 as demand for the Japanese yen as a safe-haven asset weakens. Investor sentiment received a boost from renewed momentum in the technology sector following SK Hynix's strong earnings report and the company's announcement of increased shareholder payouts thanks to AI-related profit growth.

The currency market's attention is now shifting to the Bank of Japan meeting. The regulator is expected to hold its interest rate at 1.25%, but investors will closely assess signals about its next move.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team