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Russia RU Central Bank Key Rate July 23 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The Central Bank of Russia's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the RUB, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.

Historic deviations and their outcome

April 23 2021 A 0.25 change from the forecast caused 172 pips spike in the first minute. Nice.
Check out the price action here:

I will use forecasts of:

Central Bank Key Rate 6.3

Today's trade plan

Please note that I am using a forcast based on the average predictions as follows.

Prior 5.5%
High 6.5%
Low 5.5%
AVG 6.3%
Forcasted predictions
1 x 5.5%
8 x 6.00%
9 x 6.25%
19 x 6.5%

If we see a reduction of 80 bps dev from average, i'll take a sell
If we see a hike of 55 bps dev from average i'll take a sell.

Tradable pairs


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.