The Weekly Rundown 📊

Revaluing Gold: How Washington Could Unlock $800 Billion Without Raising Debt​

For decades, gold has sat on the U.S. balance sheet at a token valuation of $42.22 per ounce—an official figure unchanged for generations—but mounting fiscal strain and a national debt exceeding $37 trillion suggest that number may soon change. In an unusual acknowledgment that gold still holds relevance in U.S. monetary policy, the Federal Reserve recently referenced the metal in an official report, aligning with draft versions of President Trump’s proposed Bitcoin Act circulating in both the Senate and House. These bills explicitly outline a plan to revalue America’s official gold reserves—a process that, if approved, could unfold as early as 2026—to fund new sovereign wealth and Bitcoin reserve initiatives, redefining gold’s statutory value under 31 U.S. Code §5117. Repricing gold to around $3,400 an ounce could instantly “create” nearly $800 billion in debt-neutral liquidity—capital that might finance these funds without formally expanding the federal debt. Supporters hail it as an innovative way to rebalance public finances, while critics warn it mirrors a sophisticated form of quantitative easing that could trigger inflationary shockwaves worldwide. Should the U.S. move forward, other central banks may follow, reanchoring their currencies to tangible assets even as fiat values continue to erode. Whether the goal is to ease America’s debt burden or to redefine reserves for a digital age, the implications are profound: gold—once dismissed as a barbarous relic—may again become the measure of monetary credibility, and the next chapter of U.S. finance could well be written in both gold and code.

Disclaimer: The information discussed reflects ongoing market speculation and legislative proposals. As of now, the U.S. government has not announced or approved any official revaluation of its gold reserves. Figures such as $800 billion in liquidity are based on independent analyst estimates, not formal projections from the Treasury or Federal Reserve.

 

[Elina Ward]

WTI Slips as Supply Builds and Tensions Ease​

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is the U.S. benchmark for crude oil prices, serving as a global gauge for energy markets and economic sentiment. Traded primarily on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), WTI reflects supply-and-demand dynamics shaped by production trends, geopolitical risks, and global growth outlooks. As one of the world’s most actively traded commodities, its price movements often influence currencies, inflation expectations, and investor risk appetite across markets.

WTI crude oil lost altitude in early October, slipping nearly 5% during the week of October 6–10, 2025, as easing geopolitical tensions and mounting oversupply concerns erased midweek gains. Prices briefly climbed above $62 a barrel after OPEC+ announced a smaller-than-expected production increase, but optimism faded as the market shifted focus to rising global output and swelling inventories. By Friday, WTI had fallen to around $58.34, its lowest close since May, leaving crude roughly 5% lower for the week.

The sharp reversal came after a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas removed much of the war-related risk premium that had supported prices through September. Meanwhile, a renewed U.S.–China tariff threat from President Trump reignited fe

ars of weaker global demand, further weighing on sentiment. Growing evidence of an impending supply glut—from higher U.S. production and stockpiles to recovering exports from Venezuela and Iraq’s Kurdistan region—deepened the sell-off. Although U.S. fuel consumption briefly surged to its highest level since 2022, analysts said those gains were overshadowed by broader signs of slowing growth and ample supply.

As the week closed, the market’s focus turned to upcoming OPEC+ policy meetings and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts later this month, which could determine whether oil prices stabilize or slide further into year-end.

 

[Elina Ward]

Crypto Markets Stumbled as Tariffs Triggered Volatility and Record Liquidations

As markets moved through the week of October 13–19, 2025, the cryptocurrency market endured intense volatility as a combination of geopolitical shocks and record liquidations unsettled investor confidence. Bitcoin tumbled from earlier highs near $122,000 to its lowest level in several months during a broad market sell-off, while Ethereum shed over 12%, briefly dipping to its weakest point since early summer before recovering modestly. The sharp decline followed U.S. President Trump’s surprise announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese tech exports, sparking over $19 billion in crypto liquidations—one of the largest on record. Although Bitcoin and Ethereum regained some ground by week’s end, they closed lower, with BTC near $107,000 and ETH around $3,850. Altcoins like XRP and Solana mirrored this pattern, plunging early in the week but rebounding on renewed risk sentiment and bullish options activity. Despite global macroeconomic pressures, including trade tensions, a U.S. government shutdown, and shifting Fed rate expectations, the total crypto market cap remained relatively stable around $3.65 trillion. Analysts noted that the week’s turbulence flushed out excess leverage, possibly setting the stage for more measured trading ahead, as crypto markets showed resilience amid heightened uncertainty.

 

[Elina Ward]

Market Brief | Fed Decision & U.S.–China Trade Framework​

What you’re looking at: A two-part, fact-first snapshot of this week’s macro swing factors — the Federal Reserve’s rate call and the U.S.–China trade framework ahead of the Oct 30 meeting.

Federal Reserve — setup for Wed, Oct 29, 2025
The Federal Reserve will decide rates Wednesday amid a shutdown-driven data blackout, with economists expecting a 25 bp cut after September CPI rose 3.0% y/y, softer than the 3.1% forecast. Fed funds futures imply a ~97% chance of easing, which would lower the target range to 3.75%–4.00% and mark a second cut this year, as officials prioritize a cooling labor market while inflation remains contained. Chair Jerome Powell has said alternative public and private data suggest the outlook is little changed since September, and several banks expect another cut in December. A further step down in policy rates would pressure borrowing costs tied to the prime rate and has already helped pull the 30-year mortgage average to 6.19% — its lowest in a year — though much of the easing is seen as priced in.

U.S.–China — framework ahead of Thu, Oct 30, 2025
The U.S. and China agreed a framework for a trade deal ahead of the Xi–Trump meeting set for October 30, 2025, in South Korea, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying the pact would avert planned 100% tariffs on Chinese imports from November 1 and include a “final deal” on TikTok. Beijing would delay export controls on key minerals for a year and revive large U.S. soybean purchases, while both sides paused punitive actions to improve access to rare earths and narrow the trade gap. Chinese negotiator Li Chenggang said a “preliminary consensus” would now undergo internal approvals. The development eased fears of a global trade war threatening European car production, as the U.S. also pursued a tariff truce with Brazil following a “positive” Trump–Lula meeting amid recent tariff escalations.

Bottom line
This piece previews the week’s two headline drivers — the Fed decision (Wed, Oct 29, 2025) and the U.S.–China framework (Thu, Oct 30, 2025) — and explains what to watch and why it matters.

 

[Elina Ward]

U.S. Government Shutdown Threatens to Break Record as Economic Risks Grow

The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 33rd day and is poised to become the longest in history, with no resolution in sight as political tensions deepen. At the core of the impasse is a battle over Affordable Care Act subsidies, set to expire by year-end. President Trump has stated he “won’t be extorted” by Democrats and refuses to negotiate until the government is reopened, while Senate Democrats demand talks before any funding bill moves forward. As the stalemate drags on, essential programs such as SNAP food assistance and healthcare subsidies face disruption, and hundreds of thousands of federal workers remain unpaid — including air traffic controllers, prompting delays at major airports. Meanwhile, Trump has renewed calls to eliminate the Senate filibuster, further complicating efforts toward a bipartisan solution. Despite ongoing discussions among moderates, a legislative breakthrough remains elusive, heightening public frustration as federal operations deteriorate.

Economically, a prolonged shutdown risks reducing household consumption, weakening GDP growth, and eroding consumer confidence — particularly if essential benefits are cut and federal pay disruptions continue. It also delays critical data releases and government functions, adding uncertainty for businesses and policymakers alike. If the deadlock continues, the economic strain could compound, with broader consequences across labor markets, service industries, and overall financial sentiment.

 

[Wrongous]

Solid breakdown Attila. Curious though, if the shutdown drags longer, wouldn’t that push safe-haven demand for gold even higher?

 

[Elina Ward]

Solid breakdown Attila. Curious though, if the shutdown drags longer, wouldn’t that push safe-haven demand for gold even higher?

That’s a great point — historically, extended U.S. government shutdowns have supported safe-haven assets like gold, especially when uncertainty lingers around fiscal policy or economic stability.

However, the reaction isn’t always one-way. If growth concerns deepen, liquidity stress or dollar strength can offset some of gold’s gains. And with the Senate now advancing a bill that could end the 40-day shutdown, some of that safe-haven demand may start to ease as risk sentiment stabilizes.

For now, gold’s strength has been driven by weaker U.S. data and rising rate-cut expectations, but upcoming CPI and Retail Sales figures will likely dictate whether this momentum holds or cools further

 

[Elina Ward]

Nvidia Weekly Recap: Volatility Surges Ahead of Earnings​

Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) is one of the world’s most influential technology companies, renowned for its leadership in GPUs, AI computing, and data center acceleration. Its technologies power everything from gaming and autonomous vehicles to generative AI and cloud infrastructure. In 2025, Nvidia has become not just a tech bellwether, but a key driver of global market sentiment.

Between November 10 and 14, 2025, Nvidia’s stock experienced notable volatility, driven by macroeconomic developments, investor repositioning, and earnings anticipation. The company is scheduled to report its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, after market close (AMC), with an EPS estimate of $1.25. This upcoming report heightened investor sensitivity during the week, setting the stage for strong market reactions.

Nvidia Shares See Sharp Swings Amid Shutdown Relief, SoftBank Exit, and Fed Jitters

Nvidia began the week on a strong note, rallying nearly 6% on November 10 after U.S. lawmakers made progress toward ending a prolonged government shutdown. The news boosted overall risk appetite and helped lift tech stocks broadly. However, momentum reversed the following day, November 11, as markets digested headlines that SoftBank had sold its entire $5.8 billion stake in Nvidia. The move raised questions about whether the stock’s AI-fueled rally had peaked in the short term.

On November 12, Nvidia remained under pressure amid a broader tech pullback as investors rotated out of high-valuation names ahead of macro data and key earnings. The decline deepened on November 13, with shares dropping another 3.6% following hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials, who downplayed the prospect of near-term rate cuts. The resulting bond-market sell-off rippled through to rate-sensitive tech stocks like Nvidia.

Despite the midweek losses, Nvidia rebounded sharply on November 14, rising nearly 2% intraday. The turnaround was attributed to bullish analyst commentary and mounting anticipation around the company’s upcoming earnings. Several analysts raised their price targets, citing resilient AI chip demand and continued strength in data center sales. The late-week recovery helped restore broader sentiment, underscoring Nvidia’s central role in market leadership.

Takeaway:

Nvidia’s wild swings last week reflected what was happening across the broader market—everything from economic news and interest rate talk to big investor moves played a part. With its Q3 earnings coming up on November 19, all eyes are on the company. Traders aren’t just looking at whether it beats estimates, but also what it says about the future of AI and tech spending. Right now, the expected earnings per share (EPS) is $1.25, and Nvidia’s market value is close to $4.63 trillion, showing just how big a role it plays in today’s market.

The chart below captures Nvidia’s price action from November 10 to 14, 2025, highlighting key intraday highs, lows, and market reactions.

 

[Elina Ward]

Tuesday 18 November 2025​

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BTC/USD Market Summary: 11–18 Nov 2025​

BTC/USD is the trading pair that shows how much one Bitcoin is worth in US dollars. It is the most widely followed price benchmark in the crypto market, and movements in BTC/USD often reflect the broader risk tone, investor appetite, and market sentiment. Before diving into the analysis below, this introduction helps readers understand that BTC/USD tracks Bitcoin’s value against the dollar — the foundation of most crypto price discussions.

Between November 11 and 18, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) experienced a consistent downtrend, falling from an opening price of $105,607.17 on November 11 to a weekly low of $89,260.98 by November 18. The weekly high of $107,477.39 was reached early in the period, but bullish momentum quickly faded. By November 14, BTC had dropped to $94,158.96, breaking decisively below the critical $100,000 psychological support. The decline continued into the weekend, reaching $93,342.29 on November 16, before showing brief signs of stabilization. In total, Bitcoin lost over 15% in value during the week, erasing several weeks of prior gains and reinforcing a more cautious tone across crypto markets.

This sharp pullback was driven by a combination of macroeconomic, technical, and crypto-specific factors. A broad risk-off shift in markets—triggered by fading expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December—put pressure on speculative assets like Bitcoin (Reuters). From a technical standpoint, BTC fell below its 200-day moving average and formed a bearish “death cross”, a pattern often associated with extended downtrends (CoinDesk). Meanwhile, crypto-native flows also weakened, with spot Bitcoin ETF inflows flattening and long-term holders engaging in profit-taking (Reuters, CoinDesk). Sentiment deteriorated sharply, as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 10–11, its lowest reading since the 2022 bear market. While such levels can signal eventual capitulation and rebound potential, the overall trend during this period remained firmly bearish, shaped by macro caution, technical breakdowns, and reduced institutional appetite.

Overall, this period captured a moment when Bitcoin’s momentum, sentiment, and macro backdrop aligned to the downside. It served as a clear reminder that even during broader uptrends, BTC/USD remained highly sensitive to shifts in expectations, technical levels, and investor confidence — making disciplined risk management essential.BTC/USD is the trading pair that shows how much one Bitcoin is worth in US dollars. It is the most widely followed price benchmark in the crypto market, and movements in BTC/USD often reflect the broader risk tone, investor appetite, and market sentiment. Before diving into the analysis below, this introduction helps readers understand that BTC/USD tracks Bitcoin’s value against the dollar — the foundation of most crypto price discussions.

Between November 11 and 18, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) experienced a consistent downtrend, falling from an opening price of $105,607.17 on November 11 to a weekly low of $89,260.98 by November 18. The weekly high of $107,477.39 was reached early in the period, but bullish momentum quickly faded. By November 14, BTC had dropped to $94,158.96, breaking decisively below the critical $100,000 psychological support. The decline continued into the weekend, reaching $93,342.29 on November 16, before showing brief signs of stabilization. In total, Bitcoin lost over 15% in value during the week, erasing several weeks of prior gains and reinforcing a more cautious tone across crypto markets.

This sharp pullback was driven by a combination of macroeconomic, technical, and crypto-specific factors. A broad risk-off shift in markets—triggered by fading expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December—put pressure on speculative assets like Bitcoin (Reuters). From a technical standpoint, BTC fell below its 200-day moving average and formed a bearish “death cross”, a pattern often associated with extended downtrends (CoinDesk). Meanwhile, crypto-native flows also weakened, with spot Bitcoin ETF inflows flattening and long-term holders engaging in profit-taking (Reuters, CoinDesk). Sentiment deteriorated sharply, as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 10–11, its lowest reading since the 2022 bear market. While such levels can signal eventual capitulation and rebound potential, the overall trend during this period remained firmly bearish, shaped by macro caution, technical breakdowns, and reduced institutional appetite.

Overall, this period captured a moment when Bitcoin’s momentum, sentiment, and macro backdrop aligned to the downside. It served as a clear reminder that even during broader uptrends, BTC/USD remained highly sensitive to shifts in expectations, technical levels, and investor confidence — making disciplined risk management essential.

The chart below highlights the BTC/USD price action for 11–18 November 2025, with the latest value last recorded at 04:00 AM GMT.

 

[Elina Ward]

Wednesday 19.11.2025​

Netflix Price Drop Explained: Stock Split, Earnings Noise, and Market Optics​

Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) is one of the world’s leading streaming platforms, with growing revenue from advertising, gaming, and international content. After a strong multi-year rally pushed its share price above $1,000, Netflix became a key barometer for tech and growth sentiment. To improve accessibility and liquidity, the company approved a 10-for-1 stock split, which later shaped how its mid-November price action looked on the chart.

On October 21, 2025, Netflix reported Q3 2025 earnings: revenue was solid, but a $619 million tax charge in Brazil weighed on net profit and slightly dented confidence. Then, on Friday, November 14, the stock closed at $1,112.45 in its pre-split form. When trading resumed on Monday, November 17, shares opened at $111.01 as the 10-for-1 split took effect. On paper this created a 90% drop in the share price, even though the company’s overall market value stayed broadly unchanged – visually it looked like a crash, but it was mainly the split plus an already sensitive backdrop.

Why Netflix’s “Crash” Was Mostly a Chart Illusion​

The sharp gap from above $1,100 to just over $110 triggered reactions from both traders and algorithms, which often treat large price gaps as volatility events even when fundamentals haven’t changed overnight. At the same time, months of strong gains and repeated comments about rich valuations meant some investors were already cautious, so the split’s optics – combined with recent earnings noise – made the move appear worse than it was.

In the days after the split, price action stabilised, with smaller candles and tighter ranges that fit a typical post-split liquidity reset rather than ongoing panic. Netflix’s underlying business remained focused on scaling its ad tier, monetising password sharing, and expanding its global content portfolio. From a fundamental standpoint, nothing “broke” over that weekend – the chart simply shifted from a four-digit price to a three-digit one as the same company was divided into more, lower-priced shares.

Takeaway:

Netflix’s apparent “crash” on November 17 was largely a mechanical effect of a 10-for-1 stock split, amplified by earlier earnings noise and valuation concerns. For traders and investors, it’s a reminder that not every huge gap on a chart reflects collapsing fundamentals – sometimes it’s just the market repricing the same business into a new share structure.



The chart below tracks Netflix’s price movement between 21 October and 18 November 2025, with the most recent value captured at 20:30 PM GMT.

 

[Elina Ward]

Thursday 20th November 2025​

Novorossiysk Attack: Geopolitics and a Quick Oil Spike​

Geopolitics is about how conflicts and political decisions between countries affect the world. In energy markets, this matters a lot: when a major export route is hit, oil prices can move within minutes. The attack on Russia’s Novorossiysk port is a clear example.

On 14 November 2025, Ukrainian missile and drone strikes hit the Sheskharis oil terminal in Novorossiysk, Russia’s main Black Sea export hub. Two oil berths were damaged and exports from Novorossiysk and a nearby CPC terminal were temporarily stopped. In total, around 2.2 million barrels per day of supply were at risk, roughly 2% of global supply, with 700–761 kbd of Russian crude directly affected. Limited CPC loadings resumed the same day, but full loadings at Novorossiysk only restarted on 16 November, with tankers like the Arlan and Rodos returning to load.

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WTIUSD Reaction​

The WTIUSD chart shows how the market reacted:

• On 14 November, WTIUSD opened at 58.76, jumped to a high of 60.67, and closed at 59.96 as traders priced in supply risk.
• After the weekend, on 17 November, WTIUSD opened at 59.51, slightly below Friday’s close, as news of resumed loadings helped calm the market.

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Takeaway​

The Novorossiysk attack shows how fast geopolitics can move oil. A single strike on a key export hub briefly put about 2% of global supply at risk and pushed WTI from 58.76 to 60.67 in one session. The comparison between 14 and 17 November makes it clear: when supply looks vulnerable, prices jump first — and then adjust as more information comes in.



The chart below illustrates how WTIUSD reacted on the 5-minute candlestick timeframe in the immediate aftermath of the Novorossiysk attack, highlighting the sharp intraday spike, the subsequent pullback, and the opening levels when trading resumed after the weekend.