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United States Crude Oil Inventories April 14 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price. Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond.



There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.



Historic Deviations and Their Outcome

April 7 2021 Minimal deviations didn't create the move we would need to be safe.

See Chart here:

March 31 2021 Not much of a deviation on this, but it seems Gasoline won the day!

See Chart here:

March 24 2021 Not much of a deviation, but Gasoline seems to have driven price action, and maybe API wasn't considered so much by the market this time?

See Chart here:




My Forecasts For Today

DOE Crude Oil Inventories -3000
DOE Gasoline Inventories +2000



Today's Trade Plan

If we get +-4000 from OIL and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude OIl or Brent.

Note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following.

1) Official DOE Crude Forecast = -2889

2) API Actual Crude = -3600

3) Official DOE Gasoline Forecast = 0786

4) API Actual Gasoline = +5600



Tradable Pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
 
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