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United States Crude Oil Inventories July 8 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also

There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.

Historic deviations and their outcome

June 30 2021 On this occasion, we saw a - 2000 deviation to the downside. However, gasoline conflicted therefore it wasn't a trigger for me.

Check out the price action here:

June 23 2021 Today we saw a sizable deviation with supporting deviation from Gasoline. I suspect it was overbought. We got some 20 pips immediately after the news before the price returned to the pre-release level. It is worth noting that other information had pushed the oil price to new highs throughout the day. For that reason, I didn't trade it, but it still would have worked out ok if I had set up for it.

Check out the price action here:

June 9 2021 Today, we saw a conflict with Gasoline. Although we saw a good 30 pip move in the direction of crude Oil initially after the news, this quickly pulled back to pre news price before carrying on with the daily downtrend it was in before the release.

Check out the price action here:

I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories -6000
DOE Gasoline Inventories -2250

Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -

Forecasts and API.

1) DOE Crude Forecast = -4000

2) API Actual Crude = -8000

3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -1750

4) API Actual Gasoline = -2700

Tradable pairs


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.