🧩 How News Moved the Market previously + What’s Lined Up Tomorrow

[Attila]

High Impact Economic News Releases — 4th June 2025​

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01:30 AM GMT | ​

Forecast: 1.7% | ⏮ Previous: 1.3%

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What it Measures​

The year-over-year percentage change in the inflation-adjusted total value of all goods and services produced within Australia’s economy. It reflects the economy’s overall size and growth compared to the same quarter last year, capturing long-term trends.

Usual Effect​

Actual > Forecast = Positive for AUD

Why Traders Care​

GDP is the most comprehensive indicator of economic health. A higher GDP growth rate suggests stronger economic activity, boosting investor confidence and supporting currency strength. It influences central bank policy decisions and market expectations for equities and bonds.

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01:30 AM GMT | ​

Forecast: 0.5% | ⏮ Previous: 0.6%

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What it Measures​

The quarter-over-quarter percentage change in the inflation-adjusted total value of goods and services produced domestically. This gives a snapshot of short-term economic momentum and helps identify turning points in economic cycles.

Usual Effect​

Actual > Forecast = Positive for AUD

Why Traders Care​

Quarterly GDP reveals the pace of economic growth in the near term, influencing monetary policy expectations. It helps traders gauge whether the economy is accelerating or slowing, affecting currency valuations and risk sentiment.

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12:15 PM GMT | ​

Forecast: 70K | ⏮ Previous: 62K

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What it Measures​

The estimated monthly change in non-farm private employment, excluding government jobs and farm workers. It’s compiled from payroll data of around 400,000 US businesses, providing an early estimate of labor market trends.

Usual Effect​

Actual > Forecast = Positive for USD

Why Traders Care​

Employment growth signals rising consumer income and spending power, driving economic expansion. The ADP report is seen as a precursor to the official monthly non-farm payrolls, so it influences market expectations of Federal Reserve monetary policy moves.

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01:45 PM GMT | ​

Forecast: 2.75% | ⏮ Previous: 2.75%

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Usual Effect​

More hawkish than expected = Positive for CAD

Why Traders Care​

The Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision sets borrowing costs and signals monetary policy direction. A hawkish tone (rate hikes or strong economic outlook) often strengthens the CAD as it attracts capital flows. The decision and commentary provide clues about inflation control and economic growth.

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02:00 PM GMT | ​

Forecast: 52 | ⏮ Previous: 51.6

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What it Measures​

A diffusion index based on a survey of purchasing managers in the US service sector, excluding manufacturing. It gauges business conditions such as new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries, indicating expansion or contraction in the sector.

Usual Effect​

Actual > Forecast = Positive for USD
Above 50 indicates industry expansion; below 50 indicates contraction.

Why Traders Care​

Since services account for a large share of the US economy, this PMI is a timely indicator of economic momentum and business confidence. Rising PMI data suggests stronger growth prospects, which can affect Federal Reserve policy outlook and currency strength.

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Examples​

Slowing Labor Momentum – ADP Payrolls Miss Expectations​

In April, a series of weaker-than-expected U.S. economic indicators weighed on the USD. Private payroll growth slowed sharply to just 62,000 jobs, the smallest gain since July 2024 and well below the 120,000 forecast, as businesses paused hiring amid uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s new tariffs. Simultaneously, the U.S. economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3% in Q1—the first contraction in three years—primarily due to a surge in imports ahead of the tariff hikes and a pullback in government spending. Wage pressures also showed signs of easing, with private sector compensation costs rising 3.4% year-on-year, down from 4.1% the previous year. Meanwhile, core PCE inflation cooled to 2.6% annually, flat on the month, suggesting limited pricing pressure. However, the Advance GDP Price Index rose more than expected at 3.7% versus 3.1% forecast, highlighting lingering inflation concerns. Lastly, pending home sales dropped 6.3% in April, despite rising inventory, as high mortgage rates continued to deter buyers. Together, these data points point to a slowing U.S. economy facing the dual challenges of tighter monetary conditions and escalating trade tensions—adding mixed pressure to the dollar.

Monitoring U.S. Service Economy Activity​

In April, the U.S. services sector showed signs of improvement, with the ISM Services PMI rising to 51.6% from 50.8% in March, remaining in expansion territory. The New Orders Index increased by 1.9 points to 52.3%, while the Inventory Sentiment Index dipped slightly to 56.1%, and the Business Activity Index fell by 2.2 points to 53.7%. Despite a 2.8-point gain, the Employment Index stayed in contraction at 49% for the second consecutive month. According to ISM, April's results reversed the direction seen in March, with improvements in New Orders, Employment, and Supplier Deliveries. Respondents also flagged pricing impacts from tariffs and federal agency budget cuts as ongoing concerns, though overall sentiment showed improvement.

Just a Reminder for Index Traders:​

Earnings reports are pivotal in driving market sentiment, especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000. Surprises from large-cap companies often trigger sharp intraday moves, making earnings releases essential events for stock and index traders to watch closely.


Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis aims to deepen your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities based on historical patterns.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Events – Thursday, 5 June 2025​

Asia-Pacific​

Australia Balance of Trade​

• Time: 01:30 AM GMT
• Forecast: A$6.7B | Previous: A$6.9B
• Description: Measures the net difference between exported and imported goods during the previous month.
• Why It Matters: Australia is heavily export-reliant (commodities like iron ore and coal). A higher trade surplus indicates stronger demand for exports, boosting AUD as foreign buyers purchase AUD to pay for goods.
• Market Insight: Expect AUD strength if the surplus beats forecast; a drop may raise concerns about global demand.

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China Caixin Services PMI​

• Time: 01:45 AM GMT
• Forecast: 51.0 | Previous: 50.7
• Description: A diffusion index from private-sector service companies, reflecting business conditions.
• Why It Matters: A leading indicator of economic momentum in the non-manufacturing sector. Caixin's data focuses on smaller, private firms and complements the official PMI.
• Market Insight: A reading above 50 shows expansion. If above forecast, expect modest support for CNY and global risk sentiment.

Switzerland Unemployment Rate​

• Time: 05:45 AM GMT
• Forecast: 2.8% | Previous: 2.8%
• Description: Represents the percentage of unemployed individuals actively seeking work.
• Why It Matters: Though a lagging indicator, it reflects economic stability. Lower unemployment supports household spending and Swiss franc strength.
• Market Insight: Any deviation from 2.8% could surprise CHF pairs due to Switzerland's historically tight labor market.

Germany Factory Orders (MoM)​

• Time: 06:00 AM GMT
• Forecast: -1.8% | Previous: +3.6%
• Description: Tracks the change in volume of new manufacturing orders.
• Why It Matters: Acts as an early signal of industrial production trends. Germany's economy depends heavily on its manufacturing base.
• Market Insight: A large downside surprise could weigh on EUR and EU equity sentiment, while stability may reassure recovery hopes.

Eurozone​

Euro Area PPI (YoY)​

• Time: 09:00 AM GMT
• Forecast: -2.3% | Previous: -1.6%
• Description: Measures average changes in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output.
• Why It Matters: Often a precursor to consumer inflation trends. A continued drop could fuel ECB easing expectations.
• Market Insight: A bigger-than-expected fall may pressure EUR and reinforce dovish monetary bets.

ECB Interest Rate Decision​

• Time: 12:15 PM GMT
• Forecast: 2.15% | Previous: 2.40%
• Description: The rate set on the ECB's main refinancing operations.
• Why It Matters: This is the Eurozone’s benchmark short-term rate. A rate cut would signal a continued dovish policy stance in response to slowing inflation.
• Market Insight: Rate changes are typically priced in, but forward guidance in the ECB’s statement will drive market direction.

ECB Deposit Facility Rate​

• Time: 12:15 PM GMT
• Forecast: 2.00% | Previous: 2.25%
• Description: Rate paid on overnight deposits held at national central banks.
• Why It Matters: Serves as the lower bound for interbank lending rates and a signal of monetary policy stance.
• Market Insight: A dovish shift would further encourage borrowing and reduce pressure on EUR.

ECB Press Conference​

• Time: 12:45 PM GMT
• Description: ECB President and governing council elaborate on policy decisions and economic outlook.
• Why It Matters: The press conference can drive market volatility, especially if tone or projections differ from expectations.
• Market Insight: Hawkish comments (e.g., inflation risks) may support EUR, while dovish tones (e.g., economic headwinds) may weigh on it.

United States​

Initial Jobless Claims​

• Time: 12:30 PM GMT
• Forecast: 243K | Previous: 240K
• Description: Weekly count of new unemployment insurance claims.
• Why It Matters: A real-time gauge of labor market health and consumer confidence.
• Market Insight: A lower-than-expected number would support the USD and signal a resilient job market.

Canada​

Canada Trade Balance​

• Time: 12:30 PM GMT
• Forecast: C$100M | Previous: -C$510M
• Description: Difference in value between exports and imports.
• Why It Matters: Canada is a major exporter to the U.S., and trade surpluses typically strengthen CAD.
• Market Insight: A swing back into surplus may trigger bullish CAD flows.

Ivey PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)​

• Time: 14:00 PM GMT
• Forecast: 48.2 | Previous: 47.9
• Description: Monthly survey of business purchasing managers across Canada.
• Why It Matters: Offers insight into inflation, employment, and demand trends.
• Market Insight: Readings below 50 indicate contraction. A surprise jump may lead to CAD strength.

Japan​

Household Spending (YoY)​

• Time: 23:30 PM GMT
• Forecast: +1.0% | Previous: +2.1%
• Description: Measures the inflation-adjusted spending by households.
• Why It Matters: A primary indicator of Japanese consumer sentiment and economic growth.
• Market Insight: Weak spending could reinforce BoJ's dovish stance; stronger data could firm JPY slightly.

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How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Examples​

ECB in Focus – Interest Rate and Economic Guidance​

In April 2025, the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing its key deposit facility rate down to 2.25%, a significant drop from its 4% peak in mid-2023. The rate cut, which had been widely expected by markets, was prompted by rising global trade tensions that have heightened economic uncertainty and dampened growth prospects across the euro zone. The ECB noted that these tensions were likely to erode confidence among households and businesses while tightening financing conditions due to volatile market reactions. Despite these concerns, the ECB emphasized that the disinflation process remained on track, with underlying inflation measures indicating a sustained return to its 2% medium-term target.

Canada’s Ivey PMI Falls Below 50, Signals Contraction in April​

In April, Canadian economic activity contracted, as reflected by the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which fell to a seasonally adjusted 47.9 from 51.3 in March—its lowest level since January. The index, which tracks month-to-month changes in economic activity based on a survey of purchasing managers across Canada, signaled a decline, with any reading below 50 indicating contraction. Employment also weakened for a second consecutive month, with the employment index slipping slightly to 48.0 from 48.2. Meanwhile, the prices paid index dropped to 70.0 from 75.6, suggesting some easing in cost pressures. The unadjusted PMI also declined, falling to 52.3 from 55.6.


Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports are pivotal in driving market sentiment, especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000. Surprises from large-cap companies often trigger sharp intraday moves, making earnings releases essential events for stock and index traders to watch closely.


Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.