Daily Market Forecast By Capitalcore

[Capitalcore]

USD CAD Technical Outlook Amid Fed Speeches

The USD/CAD forex pair, commonly known as the "Loonie," represents the exchange rate between the United States dollar and the Canadian dollar. It is widely traded due to the significant economic ties between the US and Canada, especially concerning commodities like oil. Today, the market is closely monitoring multiple influential events from the US Federal Reserve, including remarks by Governors Christopher Waller, Michael Barr, Stephen Miran, and Michelle Bowman. Their discussions on monetary policy, economic stability, and stablecoins are anticipated to impact market sentiment and could support the USD if their tone is hawkish. Additionally, traders will closely observe data releases such as the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey and US crude oil inventories. On the Canadian side, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem’s insights on Canada’s economic outlook will significantly influence CAD volatility and directional bias, especially with focus on global trade dynamics.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
Analyzing the USD/CAD H4 chart reveals a long-term bullish trend with recent intermittent challenges around the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.382. Currently, a noticeable regular divergence suggests potential weakening bullish momentum, indicating a probable corrective phase toward the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.39914. Conversely, a bullish continuation towards the resistance level at 1.41016 remains plausible given ongoing positive sentiment. MACD shows minimal bullish momentum with a histogram at 0.00013, a MACD line at 0.00293, and the signal line at 0.00281, while the RSI at 56.57 indicates moderate bullish sentiment. Ichimoku analysis further supports a cautiously bullish bias, with Conversion Line at 1.40492 above the Base Line at 1.40266, Lagging Span positioned at 1.40408, and Leading Span A and B indicating strong support levels at 1.40379 and 1.40046 respectively.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

GOLD ATH Price Action Targets $4400 Technical Analysis

All-Time High Price ActionThe XAU/USD pair, also known as Spot Gold or the "yellow metal" in forex trading, represents the price of one troy ounce of gold (XAU) quoted in US Dollars (USD), serving as the primary safe-haven asset against currency debasement and geopolitical uncertainty. Today's fundamental analysis for the GOLD/USD pair will be heavily influenced by a busy schedule of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members' speeches, including Governor Stephen Miran, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, with markets seeking any shift in the monetary policy outlook; any surprisingly hawkish comments—indicating a potential delay in interest rate cuts or a tightening of financial conditions—would likely boost the US Dollar strength, thereby exerting bearish pressure on the non-yielding gold price, while any dovish tones would reinforce the current bullish trend as a result of lower real rates. This focus on Federal Reserve sentiment highlights the extreme sensitivity of the GOLD/USD pair to changes in USD strength and rate hike expectations, which is critical for gold price prediction and daily chart technical analysis.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+03:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The XAU/USD H4 chart technical analysis clearly confirms an exceptional and extended bullish trend, with the Spot Gold price maintaining its All-Time High (ATH) run well above the $4300 level. Price action is currently focused on the significant psychological and technical resistance at $4400, which coincides closely with the 1.0 Fibonacci Extension level (near $4303.70), suggesting this zone is a potential profit-taking or resistance test area if the momentum persists. The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator provides powerful trend confirmation, showing candles trading decisively above the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo), the Conversion Line (Tenkan-sen), and the Base Line (Kijun-sen), with the future cloud remaining bright green—all signs of a strong, entrenched uptrend. The Williams %R oscillator, reading -4.89, indicates the price is deep in overbought territory (near the 0 line), signaling that the market is stretched and a short-term price action pullback or consolidation is highly probable, although strong parabolic trends can see this momentum indicator remain extreme for some time. Key support levels to watch for a corrective move include the 0.618 Fib at $4228.10 and the psychological $4200 support. The overall XAU/USD forecast remains strongly bullish, but the overextended nature of the rally carries high volatility and increased risk of a sharp correction.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

Dow Jones trading strategy based on price action

The US30, commonly known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or simply the Dow, represents the performance of 30 major U.S. blue-chip companies and is a leading barometer of the American economy. In the forex and index markets, the Dow is widely tracked for its correlation with USD strength and overall investor sentiment. Today’s focus lies on a series of crucial U.S. economic reports — including the S&P Case-Shiller House Price Index, FHFA House Price Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. These data points are pivotal as they provide insight into U.S. housing market trends, manufacturing strength, and consumer optimism. Rising home prices and stronger confidence could reinforce expectations of sustained economic resilience, supporting the Dollar and boosting equity market optimism. Conversely, weaker data could pressure risk appetite, prompting short-term corrections in the Dow’s bullish structure. Overall, today’s U.S. data releases are likely to influence short-term market direction and volatility in the US30 daily and H4 technical and fundamental analysis.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
The US30 H4 chart shows that the price is moving in a bullish trend within a clearly defined ascending channel, supported by consistent higher highs and higher lows. The index is trading above the Ichimoku green upward-moving cloud, confirming strong upward momentum and a positive market bias. The price currently remains above both the baseline (Kijun-sen) and conversion line (Tenkan-sen), which are aligned and signaling ongoing buying pressure. The lagging span has recently turned horizontal, suggesting early signs of momentum consolidation while maintaining a bullish structure. Additionally, the %R14 indicator at -4.76 reflects an overbought condition, indicating that while the trend remains upward, a short-term pullback or consolidation may occur before the next continuation move. Overall, price action supports a bullish outlook for the US30 H4 chart, with potential resistance near the upper boundary of the channel and dynamic support along the midline of the trend.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore

 

[Capitalcore]

USD CAD H4 Chart Price Action and Indicators Insights

The USD/CAD forex pair, commonly known as the "Loonie," represents the exchange rate between the United States dollar and the Canadian dollar. The Loonie is closely watched by traders, particularly due to Canada's significant energy sector, making crude oil inventories highly impactful on the pair. Today, traders are awaiting important U.S. economic releases, including Pending Home Sales, crude oil inventories data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and insights from the Federal Reserve's FOMC statement and press conference. Additionally, the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy outlook remains influential. The overall market sentiment today leans towards a cautious stance, with volatility anticipated around these announcements, potentially impacting the short-term valuation of USD/CAD significantly.

Chart Notes:
• Chart time-zone is UTC (+02:00)
• Candles’ time-frame is 4h.
From a technical perspective on the H4 chart, USD/CAD candles have been trending within a bullish channel, experiencing multiple breakout attempts that have consistently failed at the channel boundaries. Currently, price action is positioned at the channel's trend line, accompanied by bearish corrective movements that show signs of exhaustion, indicating a limited expectation of further bearish continuation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 34.02, approaching oversold territory, reinforcing potential bullish momentum. The stochastic oscillator (%K 17.63, %D 12.16) also supports this by signaling an oversold condition, suggesting potential upward movement. Meanwhile, the moving average line remains above the candles, signaling recent bearish pressure but also hinting at a potential shift towards bullish sentiment. If price action remains contained within the channel, traders may target the middle channel band as the next key resistance.

•DISCLAIMER: Please note that the above analysis is not an investment suggestion by “Capitalcore LLC”. This post has been published only for educational purposes.

Capitalcore