AtPlexyTrade
Active member
Economic Calendar – June 29–30, 2025
Time Zone: GMT
Focus Currencies: JPY, CNH, EUR, USD, NZD
Sunday – June 29
23:50 – Japan Industrial Production MoM (Prelim)- Forecast: +0.4% | Previous: −1.1%
- Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = JPY bullish
- Insight: A rebound in production could restore confidence after the prior decline. This data is closely tied to broader economic momentum and will be watched for early signs of Q2 manufacturing recovery.
Monday – June 30
01:30 – China NBS Manufacturing PMI- Forecast: 50.4 | Previous: 49.5
- Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = CNH bullish
- Insight: A reading above 50 marks expansion. Markets will look for signs of stabilization amid mixed macro indicators and soft global demand. A strong print could fuel optimism around China's industrial recovery.
06:00 – Germany Retail Sales MoM- Forecast: +0.5% | Previous: −1.1%
- Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = EUR bullish
- Insight: Consumer activity has been volatile. A recovery in spending would boost confidence in Germany’s domestic demand, supporting the euro if confirmed.
06:00 – Germany Retail Sales YoY- Forecast: +2.5% | Previous: +2.3%
- Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = EUR bullish
- Insight: A steady improvement in annual sales could indicate deeper recovery in household consumption, though inflation-adjusted gains are key.
12:00 – Germany Inflation Rate MoM (Prelim)- Forecast: +0.2% | Previous: +0.1%
- Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = EUR bullish
- Insight: Inflationary pressures remain in focus as ECB policy remains sensitive to price trends. A hotter-than-expected print may revive rate speculation.
12:00 – Germany Inflation Rate YoY (Prelim)- Forecast: +2.2% | Previous: +2.1%
- Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = EUR bullish
- Insight: Markets will watch this for signs of persistent inflation. Even a slight uptick could impact ECB outlook, especially if driven by services and housing categories.
13:45 – US Chicago PMI- Forecast: 44.0 | Previous: 40.5
- Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = USD bullish
- Insight: Manufacturing sentiment in the Midwest remains weak, but a rebound here could hint at stabilization in business activity. A sub-50 reading still indicates contraction.
14:30 – US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index- Forecast: — | Previous: −15.3
- Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = USD bullish
- Insight: Another key regional snapshot. Persistent contraction in Texas manufacturing may confirm broader weakness in the sector. A surprise rise would offer a glimmer of strength.
22:45 – New Zealand Building Permits MoM- Forecast: −1.8% | Previous: −15.6%
- Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = NZD bullish
- Insight: A rebound would signal potential stabilization in the construction sector after a steep drop. Building permits are a leading indicator of economic activity.
23:50 – Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (Q2)- Forecast: 34 | Previous: 35
- Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = JPY bullish
- Insight: Business confidence among services firms remains elevated. A surprise upside would reinforce resilience in domestic demand despite export headwinds.
23:50 – Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q2)- Forecast: 10 | Previous: 12
- Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = JPY bullish
- Insight: Manufacturing sentiment has softened amid global uncertainty. A better-than-expected result may support JPY by easing fears of industrial stagnation.
Chart Example: How Markets React to Key Economic Releases
Japan’s Preliminary Industrial Production Contracts in April Despite Smaller-Than-Expected Decline
In May, Japanese economic data painted a mixed picture. While industrial production declined by 0.9% month-on-month due to weaker auto output and the impact of U.S. tariffs, retail sales rebounded by 0.5%, supported by strong auto sales and consumer spending. Inflationary pressures remained elevated, with Tokyo core CPI rising to 3.6%, marking the fourth consecutive month of acceleration. Core-core inflation, excluding food and energy, also increased to 3.3%, indicating broad-based price growth across sectors such as housing, entertainment, and transportation. Despite weak output, the Bank of Japan faced growing pressure to act on inflation, and market expectations shifted toward a 25 basis point rate hike in July. However, concerns over fragile economic recovery, rising long-term yields, and global headwinds suggested the BoJ would proceed cautiously, potentially pausing further hikes until early next year.
USD/CNH Reaction to China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI – June 2, 2025
In May 2025, China’s factory activity contracted for a second consecutive month, though the pace of decline slowed as the country reached a temporary trade truce with the United States. The official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 from April’s 49.0, remaining below the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction. Despite the overall contraction, the manufacturing sub-index showed some growth, and there were signs of improvement in foreign trade orders, especially among firms with U.S. ties. This followed a bilateral agreement earlier in the month that slashed U.S. tariffs from 145% to 30% for 90 days and saw China reduce its tariffs on American goods from 125% to 10%. However, uncertainty persisted, as remaining tariffs stayed well above pre-Trump levels, and tensions flared again over U.S. visa restrictions on Chinese students, prompting a protest from Beijing.
Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season VolatilityKeep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.
