🧩News Recap & Tomorrow’s Outlook – with PlexyTrade

[AtPlexyTrade]

High Impact Economic News Releases — 4th June 2025​

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01:30 AM GMT | ​

Forecast: 1.7% | ⏮ Previous: 1.3%

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What it Measures​

The year-over-year percentage change in the inflation-adjusted total value of all goods and services produced within Australia’s economy. It reflects the economy’s overall size and growth compared to the same quarter last year, capturing long-term trends.

Usual Effect​

Actual > Forecast = Positive for AUD

Why Traders Care​

GDP is the most comprehensive indicator of economic health. A higher GDP growth rate suggests stronger economic activity, boosting investor confidence and supporting currency strength. It influences central bank policy decisions and market expectations for equities and bonds.

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01:30 AM GMT | ​

Forecast: 0.5% | ⏮ Previous: 0.6%

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What it Measures​

The quarter-over-quarter percentage change in the inflation-adjusted total value of goods and services produced domestically. This gives a snapshot of short-term economic momentum and helps identify turning points in economic cycles.

Usual Effect​

Actual > Forecast = Positive for AUD

Why Traders Care​

Quarterly GDP reveals the pace of economic growth in the near term, influencing monetary policy expectations. It helps traders gauge whether the economy is accelerating or slowing, affecting currency valuations and risk sentiment.

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12:15 PM GMT | ​

Forecast: 70K | ⏮ Previous: 62K

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What it Measures​

The estimated monthly change in non-farm private employment, excluding government jobs and farm workers. It’s compiled from payroll data of around 400,000 US businesses, providing an early estimate of labor market trends.

Usual Effect​

Actual > Forecast = Positive for USD

Why Traders Care​

Employment growth signals rising consumer income and spending power, driving economic expansion. The ADP report is seen as a precursor to the official monthly non-farm payrolls, so it influences market expectations of Federal Reserve monetary policy moves.

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01:45 PM GMT | ​

Forecast: 2.75% | ⏮ Previous: 2.75%

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Usual Effect​

More hawkish than expected = Positive for CAD

Why Traders Care​

The Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision sets borrowing costs and signals monetary policy direction. A hawkish tone (rate hikes or strong economic outlook) often strengthens the CAD as it attracts capital flows. The decision and commentary provide clues about inflation control and economic growth.

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02:00 PM GMT | ​

Forecast: 52 | ⏮ Previous: 51.6

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What it Measures​

A diffusion index based on a survey of purchasing managers in the US service sector, excluding manufacturing. It gauges business conditions such as new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries, indicating expansion or contraction in the sector.

Usual Effect​

Actual > Forecast = Positive for USD
Above 50 indicates industry expansion; below 50 indicates contraction.

Why Traders Care​

Since services account for a large share of the US economy, this PMI is a timely indicator of economic momentum and business confidence. Rising PMI data suggests stronger growth prospects, which can affect Federal Reserve policy outlook and currency strength.

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Examples​

Slowing Labor Momentum – ADP Payrolls Miss Expectations​

In April, a series of weaker-than-expected U.S. economic indicators weighed on the USD. Private payroll growth slowed sharply to just 62,000 jobs, the smallest gain since July 2024 and well below the 120,000 forecast, as businesses paused hiring amid uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s new tariffs. Simultaneously, the U.S. economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3% in Q1—the first contraction in three years—primarily due to a surge in imports ahead of the tariff hikes and a pullback in government spending. Wage pressures also showed signs of easing, with private sector compensation costs rising 3.4% year-on-year, down from 4.1% the previous year. Meanwhile, core PCE inflation cooled to 2.6% annually, flat on the month, suggesting limited pricing pressure. However, the Advance GDP Price Index rose more than expected at 3.7% versus 3.1% forecast, highlighting lingering inflation concerns. Lastly, pending home sales dropped 6.3% in April, despite rising inventory, as high mortgage rates continued to deter buyers. Together, these data points point to a slowing U.S. economy facing the dual challenges of tighter monetary conditions and escalating trade tensions—adding mixed pressure to the dollar.

Monitoring U.S. Service Economy Activity​

In April, the U.S. services sector showed signs of improvement, with the ISM Services PMI rising to 51.6% from 50.8% in March, remaining in expansion territory. The New Orders Index increased by 1.9 points to 52.3%, while the Inventory Sentiment Index dipped slightly to 56.1%, and the Business Activity Index fell by 2.2 points to 53.7%. Despite a 2.8-point gain, the Employment Index stayed in contraction at 49% for the second consecutive month. According to ISM, April's results reversed the direction seen in March, with improvements in New Orders, Employment, and Supplier Deliveries. Respondents also flagged pricing impacts from tariffs and federal agency budget cuts as ongoing concerns, though overall sentiment showed improvement.

Just a Reminder for Index Traders:​

Earnings reports are pivotal in driving market sentiment, especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000. Surprises from large-cap companies often trigger sharp intraday moves, making earnings releases essential events for stock and index traders to watch closely.


Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis aims to deepen your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities based on historical patterns.

 

[AtPlexyTrade]

High-Impact Economic Events – Thursday, 5 June 2025​

Asia-Pacific​

Australia Balance of Trade​

• Time: 01:30 AM GMT
• Forecast: A$6.7B | Previous: A$6.9B
• Description: Measures the net difference between exported and imported goods during the previous month.
• Why It Matters: Australia is heavily export-reliant (commodities like iron ore and coal). A higher trade surplus indicates stronger demand for exports, boosting AUD as foreign buyers purchase AUD to pay for goods.
• Market Insight: Expect AUD strength if the surplus beats forecast; a drop may raise concerns about global demand.

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China Caixin Services PMI​

• Time: 01:45 AM GMT
• Forecast: 51.0 | Previous: 50.7
• Description: A diffusion index from private-sector service companies, reflecting business conditions.
• Why It Matters: A leading indicator of economic momentum in the non-manufacturing sector. Caixin's data focuses on smaller, private firms and complements the official PMI.
• Market Insight: A reading above 50 shows expansion. If above forecast, expect modest support for CNY and global risk sentiment.

Switzerland Unemployment Rate​

• Time: 05:45 AM GMT
• Forecast: 2.8% | Previous: 2.8%
• Description: Represents the percentage of unemployed individuals actively seeking work.
• Why It Matters: Though a lagging indicator, it reflects economic stability. Lower unemployment supports household spending and Swiss franc strength.
• Market Insight: Any deviation from 2.8% could surprise CHF pairs due to Switzerland's historically tight labor market.

Germany Factory Orders (MoM)​

• Time: 06:00 AM GMT
• Forecast: -1.8% | Previous: +3.6%
• Description: Tracks the change in volume of new manufacturing orders.
• Why It Matters: Acts as an early signal of industrial production trends. Germany's economy depends heavily on its manufacturing base.
• Market Insight: A large downside surprise could weigh on EUR and EU equity sentiment, while stability may reassure recovery hopes.

Eurozone​

Euro Area PPI (YoY)​

• Time: 09:00 AM GMT
• Forecast: -2.3% | Previous: -1.6%
• Description: Measures average changes in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output.
• Why It Matters: Often a precursor to consumer inflation trends. A continued drop could fuel ECB easing expectations.
• Market Insight: A bigger-than-expected fall may pressure EUR and reinforce dovish monetary bets.

ECB Interest Rate Decision​

• Time: 12:15 PM GMT
• Forecast: 2.15% | Previous: 2.40%
• Description: The rate set on the ECB's main refinancing operations.
• Why It Matters: This is the Eurozone’s benchmark short-term rate. A rate cut would signal a continued dovish policy stance in response to slowing inflation.
• Market Insight: Rate changes are typically priced in, but forward guidance in the ECB’s statement will drive market direction.

ECB Deposit Facility Rate​

• Time: 12:15 PM GMT
• Forecast: 2.00% | Previous: 2.25%
• Description: Rate paid on overnight deposits held at national central banks.
• Why It Matters: Serves as the lower bound for interbank lending rates and a signal of monetary policy stance.
• Market Insight: A dovish shift would further encourage borrowing and reduce pressure on EUR.

ECB Press Conference​

• Time: 12:45 PM GMT
• Description: ECB President and governing council elaborate on policy decisions and economic outlook.
• Why It Matters: The press conference can drive market volatility, especially if tone or projections differ from expectations.
• Market Insight: Hawkish comments (e.g., inflation risks) may support EUR, while dovish tones (e.g., economic headwinds) may weigh on it.

United States​

Initial Jobless Claims​

• Time: 12:30 PM GMT
• Forecast: 243K | Previous: 240K
• Description: Weekly count of new unemployment insurance claims.
• Why It Matters: A real-time gauge of labor market health and consumer confidence.
• Market Insight: A lower-than-expected number would support the USD and signal a resilient job market.

Canada​

Canada Trade Balance​

• Time: 12:30 PM GMT
• Forecast: C$100M | Previous: -C$510M
• Description: Difference in value between exports and imports.
• Why It Matters: Canada is a major exporter to the U.S., and trade surpluses typically strengthen CAD.
• Market Insight: A swing back into surplus may trigger bullish CAD flows.

Ivey PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)​

• Time: 14:00 PM GMT
• Forecast: 48.2 | Previous: 47.9
• Description: Monthly survey of business purchasing managers across Canada.
• Why It Matters: Offers insight into inflation, employment, and demand trends.
• Market Insight: Readings below 50 indicate contraction. A surprise jump may lead to CAD strength.

Japan​

Household Spending (YoY)​

• Time: 23:30 PM GMT
• Forecast: +1.0% | Previous: +2.1%
• Description: Measures the inflation-adjusted spending by households.
• Why It Matters: A primary indicator of Japanese consumer sentiment and economic growth.
• Market Insight: Weak spending could reinforce BoJ's dovish stance; stronger data could firm JPY slightly.

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How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Examples​

ECB in Focus – Interest Rate and Economic Guidance​

In April 2025, the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing its key deposit facility rate down to 2.25%, a significant drop from its 4% peak in mid-2023. The rate cut, which had been widely expected by markets, was prompted by rising global trade tensions that have heightened economic uncertainty and dampened growth prospects across the euro zone. The ECB noted that these tensions were likely to erode confidence among households and businesses while tightening financing conditions due to volatile market reactions. Despite these concerns, the ECB emphasized that the disinflation process remained on track, with underlying inflation measures indicating a sustained return to its 2% medium-term target.

Canada’s Ivey PMI Falls Below 50, Signals Contraction in April​

In April, Canadian economic activity contracted, as reflected by the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which fell to a seasonally adjusted 47.9 from 51.3 in March—its lowest level since January. The index, which tracks month-to-month changes in economic activity based on a survey of purchasing managers across Canada, signaled a decline, with any reading below 50 indicating contraction. Employment also weakened for a second consecutive month, with the employment index slipping slightly to 48.0 from 48.2. Meanwhile, the prices paid index dropped to 70.0 from 75.6, suggesting some easing in cost pressures. The unadjusted PMI also declined, falling to 52.3 from 55.6.


Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports are pivotal in driving market sentiment, especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000. Surprises from large-cap companies often trigger sharp intraday moves, making earnings releases essential events for stock and index traders to watch closely.


Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[AtPlexyTrade]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – Friday, June 6, 2025​

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Germany​

06:00 AM GMT

Balance of Trade​

• Forecast: €22.6B
• Previous: €21.1B
• Higher surplus = EUR bullish
• Why It Matters:
  Indicates global demand for German goods. A rising surplus supports the euro via stronger export performance.

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Industrial Production (MoM)​

• Forecast: -1.2%
• Previous: 3.0%
• Drop = Bearish for EUR
• Why It Matters:
  A major growth indicator. Falling output suggests weakening industrial activity and overall economic momentum.

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France​

06:45 AM GMT

Industrial Production (MoM)​

• Forecast: 0.3%
• Previous: 0.2%
• Moderate growth = EUR supportive
• Why It Matters:
  Gauges the health of France's manufacturing sector. Modest gains point to economic resilience.

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Euro Area​

09:00 AM GMT

Retail Sales (YoY)​

• Forecast: 1.1%
• Previous: 1.5%
• Slowing growth = EUR bearish
• Why It Matters:
  Measures annual consumer spending trends across the Eurozone. Slower growth may signal weakening demand.

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Retail Sales (MoM)​

• Forecast: -0.3%
• Previous: -0.1%
• Monthly contraction = Consumer softening
• Why It Matters:
  Tracks short-term spending behavior. Declines suggest a potential drag on GDP growth.

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United States​

12:30 PM GMT

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)​

• Forecast: 0.2%
• Previous: 0.2%
• Steady wages; upside surprise = USD bullish
• Why It Matters:
  Key indicator of inflationary pressure. Rising wages can influence Fed interest rate decisions.

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Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)​

• Forecast: 130K
• Previous: 177K
• High-impact release
• Why It Matters:
  A crucial measure of job creation. Strong prints often spark USD rallies and stock market moves.

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Unemployment Rate​

• Forecast: 4.2%
• Previous: 4.2%
• Flat, but lower = USD bullish
• Why It Matters:
  Reflects labor market strength. A declining rate could raise expectations for tighter monetary policy.

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Canada​

12:30 PM GMT

Full-Time Employment Change​

• Forecast: -10K
• Previous: 31.5K

Definition:
Individuals working 30+ hours/week at their main or only job.
Usual Effect:

• Actual > Forecast = CAD bullish
• Actual < Forecast = CAD bearish

Why Traders Care:
This reflects the quality of job growth. An increase in full-time roles signals economic resilience and supports consumer spending—a key CAD driver.

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Employment Change (Total)​

• Forecast: 5K
• Previous: 7.4K

Definition:
Tracks the net number of jobs added or lost during the previous month.
Usual Effect:

• Actual > Forecast = CAD bullish
• Actual < Forecast = CAD bearish

Why Traders Care:
Job creation is a leading indicator of economic health. More employment leads to higher household income and spending, strengthening the CAD.

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Unemployment Rate​

• Forecast: 7.0%
• Previous: 6.9%

Definition:
Percentage of the labor force unemployed and actively looking for work.
Usual Effect:

• Actual < Forecast = CAD bullish
• Actual > Forecast = CAD bearish

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Why Traders Care:
Although lagging, it’s a key barometer of economic strength. Lower unemployment boosts consumer confidence, increasing demand and currency value.

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How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Examples​

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Tracking Canadian Labour – Employment Gains & Jobless Rate​

In April, Canada’s labour market showed further signs of strain, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly rising to 6.9%, up from 6.7% the previous month. Despite the increase in joblessness, total employment saw only a modest net gain of 7,400 jobs, largely supported by temporary hiring related to the federal election. Underlying weakness was evident as manufacturing employment fell sharply—particularly in Ontario—due to trade tensions with the U.S., and wage growth slowed to a three-year low. Economists widely viewed the data as soft, with some suggesting it could raise the likelihood of a Bank of Canada rate cut in June.

US Jobs Data – Payrolls, Wage Growth & Unemployment Rate​

In April, total nonfarm payroll employment in the U.S. increased by 177,000, slightly above the 12-month average monthly gain of 152,000, reflecting continued labor market resilience. Job growth was led by gains in health care, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and social assistance, while federal government employment declined by 9,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, with 7.2 million people unemployed, indicating no significant shifts in labor force dynamics. Average hourly earnings for all private nonfarm employees rose by 0.2% month-over-month to $36.06, bringing the year-over-year increase to 3.8%. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings for private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 0.3% to $31.06, suggesting modest but consistent wage growth across worker categories.

​

Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports are pivotal in driving market sentiment, especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000. Surprises from large-cap companies often trigger sharp intraday moves, making earnings releases essential events for stock and index traders to watch closely.


Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[AtPlexyTrade]

China Economic Calendar – June 9, 2025​

Time Zone: GMT
Overview: Key economic data out of China, with a focus on inflation and trade — critical for assessing CNY valuation and macro risk sentiment.

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01:30 – Inflation & Producer Price Data​

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Consumer Inflation Rate (YoY)

• Forecast: −0.2% | Previous: −0.1%
• Key Details: Annual change in consumer prices (CPI)
• Market Insight: Actual > Forecast → CNY
• Why It Matters: Core inflation metric. Sustained price rises raise the likelihood of tighter monetary policy.

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Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY

• Forecast: −2.6% | Previous: −2.7%
• Key Details: Annual change in input prices paid to producers
• Market Insight: Actual > Forecast → CNY
• Why It Matters: Signals upstream inflation. Higher PPI may translate into higher CPI.

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Consumer Inflation Rate (MoM)

• Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: 0.1%
• Key Details: Month-over-month change in consumer prices
• Market Insight: High reading → CNY | Low → CNY
• Why It Matters: Reflects near-term shifts in inflation and consumer purchasing behavior.

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03:00 – Trade & External Sector​

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Imports (YoY)

• Forecast: −3.0% | Previous: −0.2%
• Key Details: Yearly change in value of imports
• Why It Matters: Reflects industrial activity and domestic demand strength.

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Exports (YoY)

• Forecast: −4.0% | Previous: 8.1%
• Key Details: Yearly change in value of exports
• Market Insight: Actual > Forecast → CNY
• Why It Matters: Higher exports support trade surplus and GDP growth.

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Trade Balance (USD)

• Forecast: $70B | Previous: $96.18B
• Key Details: Net exports reported in USD
• Market Insight: Actual > Forecast → CNY
• Note: Tentative release time. Often less market-moving due to earlier yuan-based report.

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How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Example​

​

China Inflation & Producer Price Trends​

In April 2025, China’s factory-gate prices saw their sharpest decline in six months, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) falling 2.7% year-on-year and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropping 0.1% year-on-year for the third straight month, highlighting persistent deflationary pressures amid a prolonged housing slump, high household debt, and weak consumer spending. Core inflation remained unchanged at 0.5%. In response to these challenges, the Chinese government implemented monetary easing measures, including interest rate cuts and liquidity injections, while major retailers like JD.com and Alibaba’s Freshippo supported exporters shifting focus to the domestic market. Despite the start of U.S.-China trade talks in Switzerland, economists noted that tariffs were unlikely to return to pre-April levels, prompting global banks like Goldman Sachs to downgrade China’s 2025 GDP forecast below the official 5% target. However, on May 12, the yuan strengthened and the USD/CNH pair turned bearish following a surprise de-escalation in the trade war, with both nations agreeing to major tariff reductions. This unexpected breakthrough boosted investor confidence and triggered a “risk-on” sentiment, reinforcing support for the yuan despite the weak inflation data.



Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports are pivotal in driving market sentiment, especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000. Surprises from large-cap companies often trigger sharp intraday moves, making earnings releases essential events for stock and index traders to watch closely.


Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[AtPlexyTrade]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – June 10, 2025​

Time Zone: GMT
Focus: High-volatility releases from Australia , UK , and Japan — with market-moving potential for AUD, GBP, and JPY pairs.

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00:30 AM – Consumer Sentiment​

Westpac Consumer Confidence Change

• Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 2.2%
• Impact: HIGH IMPACT
• Details: Monthly change in consumer sentiment diffusion index.
• Market Insight: Actual > Forecast → AUD
• Why It Matters: Sentiment influences retail spending, a key GDP driver.

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01:30 AM – Business Climate​

NAB Business Confidence

• Forecast: -3 | Previous: -1
• Impact: HIGH IMPACT
• Details: Sentiment index from non-farm businesses.
• Market Insight: Actual > Forecast → AUD
• Why It Matters: Early economic health signal — impacts hiring, investment expectations.

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06:00 AM – Labor Market Data​

Unemployment Rate

• Forecast: 4.5% | Previous: 4.5%
• Impact: HIGH IMPACT
• Details: % of workforce unemployed (3-month avg).
• Market Insight: Actual < Forecast → GBP
• Why It Matters: Key signal for monetary policy and consumer strength.

Employment Change

• Forecast: +80K | Previous: +112K
• Impact: HIGH IMPACT
• Details: 3-month avg change in employment levels (16+).
• Market Insight: Higher print → GBP
• Why It Matters: Indicates labor market momentum and future wage pressure.

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23:50 PM – Producer Price Inflation​

PPI (MoM)

• Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%
• Impact: HIGH IMPACT
• Details: Monthly price change of domestic wholesale goods.
• Market Insight: Actual > Forecast → JPY
• Why It Matters: Early indicator of inflation passed from producers to consumers.

PPI (YoY)

• Forecast: 3.4% | Previous: 4.0%
• Impact: HIGH IMPACT
• Details: Year-over-year wholesale inflation.
• Market Insight: Higher PPI = Hawkish BoJ bias → JPY
• Why It Matters: Shapes inflation expectations and policy tone.

​

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Example​

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UK Labour Market Overview: Employment Change and Unemployment Rate​

In the three months to March 2025, UK employment rose by 112,000—marking the smallest quarterly gain since December 2024 and down from 206,000 in the previous period. The slowdown was largely driven by a decline in full-time employment, though the total number of employed individuals reached 33.98 million. Compared to a year earlier, employment increased significantly by 640,000, with growth seen among both employees and the self-employed. The employment rate for those aged 16 to 64 edged down by 0.1 percentage points to 75.0%, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.5%—its highest level since August 2021—as short-, medium-, and long-term unemployment all increased. The share of people holding second jobs climbed to 3.9% of all employed individuals. Meanwhile, the economic inactivity rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 21.4%.

Japan PPI: +4.0% YoY, +0.2% MoM – Easing Inflation Pressure​

Japan’s producer prices rose by 4.0% year-on-year in April 2025, marking the 50th consecutive month of inflation but easing slightly from a revised 4.2% in March. The slowdown reflected softer cost increases across key industrial sectors, including transport equipment, petroleum, electrical and production machinery, while prices for chemicals and iron & steel continued to decline. Month-on-month, producer prices grew by 0.2%, down from 0.4% in March — the sharpest rise in three months. The data pointed to moderating upstream inflation pressures, which supported expectations of a cautious monetary stance from the Bank of Japan. While the easing input costs offered relief to manufacturers, markets viewed the report as mildly negative for the yen, given reduced urgency for policy tightening.


Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports are pivotal in driving market sentiment, especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000. Surprises from large-cap companies often trigger sharp intraday moves, making earnings releases essential events for stock and index traders to watch closely.



Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[AtPlexyTrade]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – June 11, 2025​

Time Zone: GMT
Focus: Key inflation data from the United States , Canada , and housing market figures from the United Kingdom — with strong implications for USD, CAD, and GBP pairs.

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12:30 PM – Inflation Snapshot (YoY)​

US Inflation Rate (YoY)
Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 2.3%
Impact: HIGH IMPACT
Details: Year-over-year change in the prices of consumer goods and services.
Market Insight: Actual > Forecast → USD
Why It Matters: Broad measure of inflation — influences Fed policy and rate hike expectations.

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12:30 PM – Core Inflation Check (YoY)​

US Core CPI (YoY)
Forecast: 2.9% | Previous: 2.8%
Impact: HIGH IMPACT
Details: Annual inflation excluding food and energy.
Market Insight: Actual > Forecast → USD
Why It Matters: Preferred by the Fed as an indicator of underlying inflation pressure.

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12:30 PM – Monthly Inflation Metrics​

US Inflation Rate (MoM)
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.2%
Impact: HIGH IMPACT
Details: Month-over-month change in consumer prices.
Market Insight: Actual > Forecast → USD
Why It Matters: Short-term view of inflation trends; persistent strength may force Fed action.

US Core CPI (MoM)
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%
Impact: HIGH IMPACT
Details: Monthly price change excluding food and energy categories.
Market Insight: Actual > Forecast → USD
Why It Matters: Strong monthly core inflation supports rate-tightening bias.

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12:30 PM – Building Permits​

Canada Building Permits (MoM)
Forecast: -0.4% | Previous: -4.1%
Impact: HIGH IMPACT
Details: Monthly change in total value of newly issued building permits.
Market Insight: Actual > Forecast → CAD
Why It Matters: A forward-looking indicator of construction and economic activity.

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11:01 PM – Housing Sentiment​

UK RICS House Price Balance
Forecast: -4% | Previous: -3%
Impact: HIGH IMPACT
Details: Diffusion index of surveyors’ views on home prices.
Market Insight: Actual > Forecast → GBP
Why It Matters: Offers early insight into the housing market and broader economic sentiment.

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Example​

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U.S. CPI Release: Market Reaction and AUD/USD Price Movement​

In April 2025, the annual U.S. inflation rate fell to 2.3%, its lowest since February 2021 and below the forecasted 2.4%, according to the Labor Department. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% for the month, while core CPI, excluding food and energy, also increased 0.2% monthly and 2.8% annually—matching expectations. Egg prices dropped 12.7% month-over-month but remained 49.3% higher than a year prior. Shelter costs, accounting for a third of CPI weighting, rose 0.3% and drove more than half of the overall increase. Energy prices rebounded 0.7%, food prices declined 0.1%, and used vehicle prices dropped 0.5%. Amid these tame inflation figures, the potential impact of President Trump’s newly imposed tariffs remained a concern. While a 90-day pause on China tariffs reduced immediate fears, economists anticipated possible inflationary effects starting in May. Despite earlier expectations of interest rate cuts, markets shifted their outlook, anticipating the first Federal Reserve cut in September instead of June, with only two reductions likely in 2025.


Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports are pivotal in driving market sentiment, especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000.

Surprises from large-cap companies often trigger sharp intraday moves. But it’s not just the numbers — forward guidance, profit margins, and executive commentary often steer market direction.

During earnings season, expect increased volatility and volume, especially in sectors most affected. Global indices also respond to major U.S. earnings, reflecting the interconnectedness of today's markets.

Stay alert — earnings releases are essential events for both stock and index traders.



Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[AtPlexyTrade]

​

️High Impact Economic News Releases — 12th June 2025​

---

06:00 AM GMT | United Kingdom
🗞 Event: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) MoM
Forecast: 0% | Previous: 0.2%

What it Measures
Month-over-month change in the total value of goods and services produced by the UK economy — the broadest gauge of economic activity.

Usual Effect
If the actual result is greater than the forecast, it is considered positive (bullish) for GBP.

Why Traders Care
GDP is the most comprehensive measure of economic health. Stronger GDP boosts investor confidence, supports the currency, and influences Bank of England policy decisions.

---

06:00 AM GMT | United Kingdom
🗞 Event: Industrial Production MoM
Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: -0.7%

What it Measures
Month-over-month change in output from manufacturers, mining, and utilities — sectors that respond quickly to economic shifts.

Usual Effect
If the actual result is greater than the forecast, it is considered positive (bullish) for GBP.

Why Traders Care
Industrial production reflects economic momentum. Rising output can lead to job growth and higher consumption.

---

12:30 PM GMT | United States
🗞 Event: Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY
Forecast: 2.3% | Previous: 2.4%

What it Measures
Year-over-year change in the Producer Price Index, reflecting inflation at the wholesale level across multiple sectors.

Usual Effect
If the actual result is greater than the forecast, it is considered positive (bullish) for USD.

Why Traders Care
Producer prices often lead consumer inflation. Rising PPI increases the likelihood of Fed rate hikes and supports the USD.

---

12:30 PM GMT | United States
🗞 Event: Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: -0.5%

What it Measures
Month-over-month change in the prices producers receive for finished goods and services.

Usual Effect
If the actual result is greater than the forecast, it is considered positive (bullish) for USD.

Why Traders Care
This figure signals short-term inflation pressures. Higher costs may flow through to consumers and affect monetary policy.

---

12:30 PM GMT | United States
🗞 Event: Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 250,000 | Previous: 247,000

What it Measures
Weekly count of individuals filing for unemployment insurance for the first time.

Usual Effect
If the actual result is lower than the forecast, it is considered positive (bullish) for USD.

Why Traders Care
Jobless claims offer insight into labor market strength. Fewer claims signal economic resilience and support USD value.

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Example​

UK Growth and Output Figures Drive GBP/USD Volatility​

On May 15, 2025, the UK economy reported a stronger-than-expected GDP growth of 0.7% in Q1, surpassing the forecast of 0.6%. The growth was driven by increased consumer spending, a rebound in exports ahead of impending US tariffs, and a rise in business investment. This was further supported by a 1.1% quarterly increase in industrial production, marking the first such rise in a year. Manufacturing led the rebound, especially in transport equipment and machinery, though monthly data showed a -0.7% dip in March, suggesting some end-of-quarter volatility. While UK officials welcomed the data as a sign of recovery, analysts warned the boost may be temporary due to front-loaded activity and looming tax hikes.

Meanwhile, the United States reported a sharp -0.5% drop in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for April — the largest monthly decline since records began in 2009 — primarily due to falling margins in trade services. This signaled cooling inflationary pressures at the producer level. Additionally, weekly jobless claims rose to 247,000, the highest level in seven months, pointing to signs of a softening labor market. The combination of weakening producer prices and rising unemployment claims indicated growing economic headwinds in the US, likely influencing expectations around future Federal Reserve policy moves.

Producer Prices & Jobless Claims Data​

In April 2025, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand fell by 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis, marking the largest monthly drop since April 2020. This decline was primarily driven by a 0.7% decrease in final demand services, especially due to a 1.6% fall in trade service margins, with machinery and vehicle wholesaling margins dropping 6.1%. Conversely, final demand goods prices remained flat, with core goods (excluding food and energy) rising 0.4%, while food and energy prices declined. On a year-over-year basis, the PPI rose 2.4%, while core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade services) increased 2.9%. In labor data, initial jobless claims for the week ending May 10 were steady at 229,000, while the four-week average rose to 230,500. The insured unemployment rate held at 1.2%, with continuing claims rising slightly to 1.88 million.



Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports are pivotal in driving market sentiment, especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000.

Surprises from large-cap companies often trigger sharp intraday moves. But it’s not just the numbers — forward guidance, profit margins, and executive commentary often steer market direction.

During earnings season, expect increased volatility and volume, especially in sectors most affected. Global indices also respond to major U.S. earnings, reflecting the interconnectedness of today's markets.

Stay alert — earnings releases are essential events for both stock and index traders.



Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[borzy]

I’ve traded ECB releases like that March 6 shock—with 1:300 leverage and pending orders, I caught a nice EUR/USD swing. It’s tricky: only works if your timing is razor‑sharp around volatility spikes

 

[AtPlexyTrade]

I’ve traded ECB releases like that March 6 shock—with 1:300 leverage and pending orders, I caught a nice EUR/USD swing. It’s tricky: only works if your timing is razor‑sharp around volatility spikes

Well done—those ECB moves can be wild! High-impact releases like NFP, CPI, and rate decisions are perfect for catching those volatility spikes with sharp timing.

 

[AtPlexyTrade]

​

Economic Calendar – Friday, June 13, 2025​

09:00 AM GMT – Euro Area Industrial Production (MoM)​

• Forecast: -1.8%
• Previous: 2.6%
• Impact Level: High
• What It Measures:
  Monthly change in inflation-adjusted output across manufacturing, mining, and utilities.
• Why It Matters:
  A key leading indicator of economic activity. Industrial production reacts swiftly to changes in demand and correlates closely with employment and wage trends.
• Market Implication:
  Better-than-expected = Bullish for EUR
  Worse-than-expected = Bearish for EUR

14:00 PM GMT – U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary)​

• Forecast: 52.1
• Previous: 52.2
• Impact Level: High
• What It Measures:
  A composite index based on consumer surveys about personal finances, economic outlook, and buying conditions.
• Why It Matters:
  Consumer confidence is a forward-looking gauge of spending, which drives nearly 70% of U.S. GDP. It’s also a sentiment signal for broader economic conditions.
• Market Implication:
  Stronger reading = Bullish for USD
  Weaker reading = Bearish for USD

​

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Example​

​

U.S. Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations Drive EUR/USD Volatility​

U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated in May, with the University of Michigan index falling to 50.8, down from 52.2 in April, marking the second-lowest reading on record, only behind June 2022. The decline reflected rising anxiety about inflation and trade policy. According to the survey, nearly 75% of respondents spontaneously cited tariffs as a major concern—up from 60% the previous month—highlighting how trade tensions increasingly shaped public perception of the economy.

Inflation expectations also climbed sharply: 1-year expectations rose to 7.3%, from 6.5% in April, while 5-year expectations increased to 4.6%, from 4.4%. These figures were critical for the Federal Reserve, which has closely monitored long-term expectations to assess whether inflationary pressures were becoming entrenched. Fed Chair Jerome Powell had previously emphasized that any rise in expectations tied to tariffs could delay or derail interest rate cuts.

Although a 90-day tariff pause between the U.S. and China was announced during the survey period, most of the responses had been collected before the announcement, meaning the potential positive impact was not captured in the data. Despite the pause, effective tariff rates remained significantly higher than pre-2017 levels, sustaining pressure on prices.


Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports are pivotal in driving market sentiment, especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000.

Surprises from large-cap companies often trigger sharp intraday moves. But it’s not just the numbers — forward guidance, profit margins, and executive commentary often steer market direction.

During earnings season, expect increased volatility and volume, especially in sectors most affected. Global indices also respond to major U.S. earnings, reflecting the interconnectedness of today's markets.

Stay alert — earnings releases are essential events for both stock and index traders.


Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[AtPlexyTrade]

High-Impact News – June 16, 2025​

---

China – 02:00 AM GMT​

🛠 Industrial Production YoY
Forecast: 5.5% | Previous: 6.1%
Measures: Inflation-adjusted output from manufacturing, mining, and utilities
Better-than-forecast = CNY bullish
Why it matters: A key early indicator of economic health tied to the business cycle

🛍 Retail Sales YoY
Forecast: 4.7% | Previous: 5.1%
Measures: Total value of sales at the retail level
Better-than-forecast = CNY bullish
Why it matters: Primary gauge of consumer spending—crucial to economic growth

Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 5.1% | Previous: 5.1%
Measures: Urban workforce unemployment
Lower-than-forecast = CNY bullish
Why it matters: Strong labor data supports consumer confidence and monetary stability

---

United States – 12:30 PM GMT​

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
Forecast: -8 | Previous: -9.2
Measures: Business conditions for NY manufacturers
Better-than-forecast = USD bullish
Why it matters: Sentiment-based, early signal of shifts in economic activity and investment

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Example​

USDJPY Reaction to U.S. Data – May 15, 2025

The U.S. dollar showed mixed movement following a series of key data releases. The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.5% in April—its sharpest drop in services since records began—signaling cooling inflation and reducing expectations for further Fed tightening. Core PPI also edged down for the first time since 2020.

Meanwhile, retail sales rose a modest 0.1%, slightly above expectations, but the momentum looks weak after strong March figures likely boosted by tariff-driven buying. Jobless claims remained elevated at 229,000, pointing to a softening labor market.

Manufacturing data remained bearish. The Empire State Index stayed deep in negative territory at -9.2, while the Philly Fed Survey improved but still came in negative, with rising cost pressures.



Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports are pivotal in driving market sentiment, especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000.

Surprises from large-cap companies often trigger sharp intraday moves. But it’s not just the numbers — forward guidance, profit margins, and executive commentary often steer market direction.

During earnings season, expect increased volatility and volume, especially in sectors most affected. Global indices also respond to major U.S. earnings, reflecting the interconnectedness of today's markets.

Stay alert — earnings releases are essential events for both stock and index traders.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[AtPlexyTrade]

Global Economic Calendar – Tuesday, June 17, 2025​

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03:00 AM GMT – Japan: Bank of Japan (BoJ) Interest Rate Decision​

• Forecast: 0.50% | Previous: 0.50%
• The BoJ is expected to hold rates steady amid fragile inflation and wage growth concerns.
• Why it matters: As Japan slowly exits its ultra-loose monetary policy era, any surprise shift could significantly impact JPY pairs. Traders watch for tone and guidance on future tightening.

---

09:00 AM GMT – Germany: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index​

• Forecast: 32.0 | Previous: 25.2
• Survey of over 300 German institutional investors and analysts, gauging 6-month economic outlook.
• Why it matters: Rising sentiment often precedes real economic momentum. A beat here could boost EUR and European equity indices.

---

12:30 PM GMT – U.S.: Retail Sales (MoM)​

• Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: 0.1%
• Reflects monthly consumer spending trends—key for 70% of U.S. GDP.
• Why it matters: A decline may signal consumer fatigue and slow GDP growth. Weak data could add pressure on the Fed to pivot more dovishly.

---

12:30 PM GMT – U.S.: Retail Sales (YoY)​

• Forecast: 4.9% | Previous: 5.2%
• Year-over-year view of consumer demand.
• Why it matters: Still-strong annual growth supports economic resilience, but a slowdown could reflect real wage stagnation and rising debt burdens.

---

13:15 PM GMT – U.S.: Industrial Production (MoM)​

• Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.0%
• Captures inflation-adjusted output across manufacturing, mining, and utilities.
• Why it matters: Often viewed as a leading economic indicator. A beat may support USD and strengthen market optimism, especially in cyclical sectors.

---

23:50 PM GMT – Japan: Exports (YoY)​

• Forecast: -6.2% | Previous: -2.2%
• Exports are central to Japan’s GDP, especially in machinery and tech sectors.
• Why it matters: A sharper-than-expected decline would signal weakening global demand, weighing on JPY and Japanese equities.

---

23:50 PM GMT – Japan: Balance of Trade​

• Forecast: ¥870B | Previous: ¥115.8B
• Net difference between export and import values.
• Why it matters: A larger surplus indicates strong export performance or weak import demand. Impacts currency flows and investor sentiment on Japan’s external position.

---

23:50 PM GMT – Japan: Machinery Orders (YoY)​

• Forecast: 3.8% | Previous: 8.4%
• Excludes highly volatile ship and electric utility orders; reflects private sector capital investment.
• Why it matters: A sharp drop may suggest declining business confidence, impacting forecasts for future industrial output.

---

23:50 PM GMT – Japan: Machinery Orders (MoM)​

• Forecast: -9.0% | Previous: 13.0%
• Month-over-month volatility often reflects major contract wins or cancellations.
• Why it matters: A steep monthly drop may unsettle JPY traders and equity investors expecting sustained capital expenditure growth.

​

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Example​

Yen Weakened After BoJ Cut Growth Forecasts Despite Steady Rates​

In its May meeting, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its key short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, the highest level since 2008, aligning with market expectations. The unanimous decision came amid concerns over the potential impact of U.S. President Trump's tariff measures on global growth. The BoJ, which is in trade negotiations with Washington, signaled it may raise rates if economic conditions support it. In its updated quarterly outlook, the BoJ cut its FY 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% from 1.0%, citing trade risks and policy uncertainty, and also lowered the FY 2026 projection to 0.7%. Core inflation forecasts were trimmed to 2.2% for FY 2025 and 1.7% for FY 2026, before a slight recovery to 1.9% in FY 2027, while headline inflation was expected to stay near 2% through March 2028.


Just a Reminder for Index Traders:

Earnings reports are pivotal in driving market sentiment, especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000.

Surprises from large-cap companies often trigger sharp intraday moves. But it’s not just the numbers — forward guidance, profit margins, and executive commentary often steer market direction.

During earnings season, expect increased volatility and volume, especially in sectors most affected. Global indices also respond to major U.S. earnings, reflecting the interconnectedness of today's markets.

Stay alert — earnings releases are essential events for both stock and index traders.


Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[AtPlexyTrade]

Global Economic Calendar – Tuesday, June 18, 2025​

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06:00 AM GMT – United Kingdom: Inflation Data

• Inflation Rate (YoY)
  Forecast: 3.5% | Previous: 3.5%
  Measures changes in the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services over 12 months.
  Why it matters: Inflation influences Bank of England policy. Persistent price pressure may push rate hikes.
• Inflation Rate (MoM)
  Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 1.2%
  Tracks month-over-month consumer price changes.
  Why it matters: Sharp deceleration may signal softening demand pressures.
• Core Inflation Rate (YoY)
  Forecast: 3.8% | Previous: 3.8%
  Excludes volatile items (food, energy, alcohol, tobacco).
  Why it matters: Closely watched by policymakers for long-term trend clarity.
• Core Inflation Rate (MoM)
  Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 1.4%
  Focuses on stable price trends excluding seasonal volatility.
  Why it matters: Provides a clearer signal of underlying inflation.

---

12:30 PM GMT – United States: Housing & Labor Market

• Building Permits (MoM)
  Forecast: -1.5% | Previous: -4.0%
  Measures new permits issued for future housing construction.
  Why it matters: Early indicator of construction activity and economic confidence.
• Housing Starts (MoM)
  Forecast: -0.8% | Previous: 1.6%
  Reflects initiation of new residential construction.
  Why it matters: Impacts GDP and signals broader housing market health.
• Initial Jobless Claims
  Forecast: 255K | Previous: 248K
  Tracks weekly applications for unemployment benefits.
  Why it matters: Lower claims signal a stronger labor market and consumer spending outlook.

---

18:00 PM GMT – United States: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

• Forecast: 4.5% | Previous: 4.5%
  Benchmark interest rate for interbank lending.
  Why it matters: A cornerstone event for USD and global markets. Hints at future rate cuts could drive volatility.

---

18:30 PM GMT – United States: Fed Press Conference

• Speaker: Fed Chair
  Press briefing following the rate announcement.
  Why it matters: Powell’s tone and guidance on inflation and policy path are market-moving.

---

22:45 PM GMT – New Zealand: GDP Report

• GDP Growth Rate (QoQ)
  Forecast: 0.7% | Previous: 0.7%
  Quarterly economic growth adjusted for inflation.
  Why it matters: Strong growth may influence RBNZ rate policy and NZD direction.
• GDP Growth Rate (YoY)
  Forecast: -1.0% | Previous: -1.1%
  Annualized snapshot of economic health.
  Why it matters: Negative growth raises recession concerns and policy easing expectations.
  

  ​

  ​

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Examples​

GBP/USD Reacts to UK Inflation Surprise​

In April 2025, the U.K.’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.5%, exceeding economists’ expectations of 3.3%, according to the Office for National Statistics. This marked a reversal from the recent cooling trend, where inflation had dropped to 2.8% in February and 2.6% in March. Core inflation climbed to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March, driven by rising costs in housing, transport, and recreation, while clothing and footwear provided a slight offset. Notably, electricity, gas, and other fuels surged 6.7% YoY, and water and sewerage charges spiked 26.1% MoM — the sharpest increase since at least 1988. British Chancellor Rachel Reeves expressed disappointment, acknowledging continued cost-of-living pressures. The rise followed April’s energy price cap adjustment, domestic business tax hikes, and seasonal factors like Easter and favorable weather. Despite the Bank of England’s recent rate cut to 4.25%, the data has sparked concern among policymakers, with some committee members feeling validated for opposing the cut. While the BoE had anticipated a temporary inflation rise to 3.7% in Q3, it vowed that future rate cuts would be “gradual and careful.” This comes as preliminary GDP data showed a robust 0.7% Q1 growth, attributed to pre-tariff activity and tax timing. Analysts believe U.K. inflation remains on a longer-term downward path, potentially allowing for more rate cuts later in the year.

XAU/USD Volatility Spikes Post-Fed as Markets Digest Stagflation Risk​

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25%-4.5% during its May 7, 2025 meeting, marking no change since December. The Fed cited rising economic uncertainty and growing risks of both inflation and unemployment, amid market volatility and concerns over President Trump's escalating tariff policies. In its post-meeting statement, the Fed acknowledged the dual threats of slowing growth and higher prices, hinting at a potential stagflationary environment. While not directly addressing tariffs, Chair Jerome Powell discussed their impact in the press conference, emphasizing that the economy remained "in solid shape" despite a 0.3% GDP contraction in Q1. Job growth continued, with 177,000 nonfarm payrolls added in April and the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. However, inflation hovered around the Fed's 2% target, with tariff-driven price pressures looming. The Fed gave no signal of an imminent rate cut, and market expectations for future easing remained mixed.

​

Just a Reminder for Index Traders:​

Earnings reports are pivotal in driving market sentiment, especially for major indices like the US30 (Dow Jones), S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, CAC 40, STOXX50, Nikkei 225, HK50, China50, AUS200, ES35, NETH25, SWI20, and RUSS2000.
Surprises from large-cap companies often trigger sharp intraday moves. But it’s not just the numbers — forward guidance, profit margins, and executive commentary often steer market direction.
During earnings season, expect increased volatility and volume, especially in sectors most affected. Global indices also respond to major U.S. earnings, reflecting the interconnectedness of today's markets.
Stay alert — earnings releases are essential events for both stock and index traders.


Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[AtPlexyTrade]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – June 19, 2025
Time Zone: GMT
Focus: Major releases from Australia , Switzerland , UK , and Japan — with high-volatility potential for AUD, CHF, GBP, and JPY currency pairs.

---

01:30 AM AU – Employment Data (Market Mover for AUD)

• Unemployment Rate: Forecast: 4.1% | Previous: 4.1%
    No change expected, but any surprise lower could fuel AUD strength.
• Employment Change: Forecast: 15K | Previous: 89K
    A sharp slowdown expected. A print above forecast would ease slowdown fears.
• Full-Time Employment Change: Forecast: 20K | Previous: 59.5K
    Strong full-time job growth supports consumer confidence and AUD buying.

Why it matters: Australia’s labour market data is a key indicator of economic health and a major influence on monetary policy decisions. Strong employment figures—particularly in full-time roles—can reinforce expectations of a tighter stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia, supporting the outlook for the AUD.

---

07:30 AM CH – SNB Interest Rate Decision​

• Forecast: 0.00% | Previous: 0.25%
    A cut would align SNB with global dovish trends and weigh on CHF.
    Markets will be watching the policy statement for inflation outlook hints.

Why it matters: The Swiss National Bank remains one of the few central banks still considering further easing. Any adjustment in tone or policy could influence market sentiment and impact CHF volatility across the board.

---

11:00 AM GB – BoE Interest Rate Decision​

• Forecast: 4.25% | Previous: 4.25%
    No change expected, but close attention on vote split and forward guidance.
   If hawkish tones remain, GBP could find support despite flat rates.

Why it matters: Persistent inflation pressures have led the Bank of England to maintain a comparatively hawkish stance. Even if rates remain unchanged, the policy statement and vote split will be closely scrutinized for signals on the Bank’s inflation outlook and future rate path, both of which can influence GBP sentiment.

---

23:30 PM JP – Inflation Data (Key for BoJ Policy Outlook)​

• Inflation Rate MoM: Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.1%
• Core Inflation YoY: Forecast: 3.6% | Previous: 3.5%
• Headline Inflation YoY: Forecast: 3.6% | Previous: 3.6%

Why it matters: With the BoJ under pressure to tighten, stable or rising inflation supports the case for further policy normalization. JPY pairs could move on even small deviations.

​

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Examples​

GBP/USD Reacts to BoE Rate Cut and Trade War Fears​

The Bank of England cut interest rates from 4.5% to 4.25%, citing weaker economic prospects and lower inflation due in part to higher tariffs linked to Donald Trump's trade war. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was split, with five members voting for the cut, two preferring a deeper reduction to 4%, and two voting to hold at 4.5%. The Bank indicated further cuts could follow but stressed a cautious approach. Governor Andrew Bailey noted that easing inflation allowed for the move and welcomed the anticipated UK-US trade deal as a way to reduce economic uncertainty. While growth was revised up to 1% due to a strong first quarter, the Bank acknowledged that underlying growth remained weak, and inflation was expected to peak at 3.5% before falling below 2% by next year.

​

Australian Labour Surge Fails to Sustain AUD/USD Amid U.S. Dollar Rebound​

Although Australia’s labour market data on May 15, 2025, was very strong—showing an 89K surge in employment—AUD/USD turned bearish after an initial spike. The pair rose sharply following the release but then reversed due to profit-taking, caution ahead of key U.S. data, and later, U.S. dollar strength. Several high-impact U.S. releases, including Core PPI, Retail Sales, and comments from Fed Chair Powell, shifted market focus to the USD. As a result, despite the bullish domestic data, AUD/USD fell as global attention moved to the U.S. outlook, highlighting that AUD/USD is influenced by both AUD and USD fundamentals.

Reminder for Index Traders:​

Earnings reports are a key driver of market sentiment, particularly across major indices such as the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, and others.

Unexpected results from large-cap companies can prompt sharp intraday movements—not only due to headline figures, but also based on forward guidance, margins, and executive commentary.

As earnings season unfolds, anticipate heightened volatility and trading volume, especially as global indices increasingly reflect major U.S. corporate outcomes.

Remain vigilant — earnings season presents both opportunity and elevated risk.



Keep a close watch on geopolitical tensions, as they can heavily influence market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and affect global equity performance.



Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[AtPlexyTrade]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – Friday, June 20, 2025​

Time Zone: GMT
Focus: Key data from the UK , Germany , United States , and Canada — high market-moving potential for GBP, EUR, USD, and CAD pairs.

---

06:00 – UK Retail Sales​

• Retail Sales YoY
   ▪ Forecast: 1.6% | Previous: 5.0%
   ▪ Indicates the annual change in consumer spending.
• Retail Sales MoM
   ▪ Forecast: -0.7% | Previous: 1.2%
   ▪ A key gauge of monthly consumer activity. Better-than-expected figures typically support GBP.

Why it matters: Retail sales are a primary indicator of consumer spending, which is a major driver of overall economic growth in the UK.

---

06:00 – Germany Producer Price Index (PPI)​

• PPI YoY
   ▪ Forecast: -1.2% | Previous: -0.9%
• PPI MoM
   ▪ Forecast: -0.3% | Previous: -0.6%

Why it matters: PPI tracks inflation at the wholesale level. Persistently low or negative readings may raise deflation concerns and influence ECB policy expectations.

---

12:30 – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index​

• Forecast: 1.0 | Previous: -4.0
   ▪ A value above 0 indicates improving conditions; below 0 indicates contraction.

Why it matters: This is a leading indicator of economic activity. Improvements often boost USD as they hint at stronger future output, investment, and hiring.

---

12:30 – Canada Retail Sales & PPI​

• Retail Sales MoM
   ▪ Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.5%
• Retail Sales YoY
   ▪ Forecast: 3.4% | Previous: 5.6%
• PPI YoY
   ▪ Forecast: 2.3% | Previous: 2.0%
• PPI MoM
   ▪ Forecast: -0.3% | Previous: -0.8%

Why it matters: These figures reflect both consumer activity and upstream price pressures. A strong beat could reinforce expectations of a tighter monetary stance from the Bank of Canada.

---

14:00 – US CB Leading Index MoM​

• Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: -1.0%
   ▪ A broad measure of future economic conditions based on 10 indicators.

Why it matters: This composite index offers insight into future economic momentum. A weaker reading could pressure USD if concerns about economic slowdown grow.

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Example​

How GBP/USD Reacted to Strong UK Retail Sales Data

Retail sales volumes in Great Britain rose by 1.2% in April 2025, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase and a 5.0% rise year-over-year. The main driver was a 3.9% jump in food store sales, with retailers attributing the increase to favorable weather. Over the three months to April, volumes rose by 1.8%, the strongest quarterly growth since July 2021. While department and household goods stores saw gains, non-food store sales declined by 0.7%, led by lower clothing and miscellaneous sales. Online spending fell 0.3% from the previous month but increased 6.1% year-over-year, with the online share of total retail sales easing slightly to 26.8% from 27.1% in March. Overall, retail volumes are now 0.3% above pre-pandemic levels, indicating a recovery in consumer activity and stronger seasonal demand.

Reminder for Index Traders:​

Earnings reports are a key driver of market sentiment, particularly across major indices such as the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, and others.

Unexpected results from large-cap companies can prompt sharp intraday movements—not only due to headline figures, but also based on forward guidance, margins, and executive commentary.

As earnings season unfolds, anticipate heightened volatility and trading volume, especially as global indices increasingly reflect major U.S. corporate outcomes.

Remain vigilant — earnings season presents both opportunity and elevated risk.


Keep a close watch on geopolitical tensions, as they can heavily influence market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and affect global equity performance.


Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[AtPlexyTrade]

High-Impact Economic Calendar​

🕰 Time Zone: GMT
For: Sunday, June 22 & Monday, June 23, 2025
These scheduled releases are closely watched by traders and are likely to trigger volatility in currencies such as AUD, EUR, GBP, and USD. Keep an eye on potential moves in related markets as investors react to early economic signals from major economies.

Sunday – June 22, 2025​

23:00 — Australia: S&P Global Flash PMIs
Australia’s economy kicks off the week with key PMI data. These forward-looking indicators offer an early read on business sentiment and economic momentum.

• Services PMI Flash
  • Forecast: 50.1 | Previous: 50.6
  • Reflects business activity in Australia’s dominant services sector.
• Manufacturing PMI Flash
  • Forecast: 50.5 | Previous: 51.0
  • Gauges performance in Australia’s industrial and export-sensitive manufacturing sector.
• Composite PMI Flash
  • Forecast: 50.2 | Previous: 50.5
  • A weighted average of services and manufacturing — the most holistic early-month snapshot of private-sector health.

Why it matters:
PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. These indicators often drive AUD volatility and influence expectations around RBA policy direction.

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Monday – June 23, 2025
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07:30 — Germany: HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash

• Forecast: 49.1 | Previous: 48.3
Germany’s manufacturing sector continues to recover slowly.
A stronger-than-expected reading would support the euro and help gauge the Eurozone’s industrial momentum.

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08:30 — United Kingdom: S&P Global Flash PMIs
A full suite of PMI data offers early insight into UK economic conditions — a key focus for GBP traders and BoE policy watchers.

• Composite PMI
  • Forecast: 50.4 | Previous: 50.3
  • A broad overview of UK business activity.
• Manufacturing PMI
  • Forecast: 46.6 | Previous: 46.4
  • Ongoing contraction, though a slight improvement is expected.
• Services PMI
  • Forecast: 50.5 | Previous: 50.9
  • Still in growth territory but easing slightly — crucial as services dominate UK GDP.

Why it matters:
The Bank of England monitors this data closely. Surprises often impact UK bond yields, FTSE movement, and sterling strength.

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13:45 — United States: S&P Global Flash PMIs
U.S. PMI figures are high-frequency signals of business conditions across the world’s largest economy.

• Composite PMI
  • Forecast: 53.1 | Previous: 53.0
• Services PMI
  • Forecast: 54.0 | Previous: 53.7
• Manufacturing PMI
  • Forecast: 52.0 | Previous: 52.0

Why it matters:
The Fed closely watches PMI trends for signs of inflation or economic slowdown. These numbers can move the USD, Treasuries, and equity markets.

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14:00 — United States: Housing Market Data

• Existing Home Sales
  • Forecast: 3.90M | Previous: 4.00M
• MoM Change in Sales
  • Forecast: -2.5% | Previous: -0.5%

Why it matters:
Housing is a major driver of U.S. economic activity. Weak figures may pressure consumer sentiment and signal slower growth. Important for traders watching real estate, consumer stocks, and Fed policy tone.

How Key Economic Releases Move Markets — Chart Examples​

GBP/USD Drops After PMI Reveals Mixed UK Outlook​

Although the UK S&P Global Composite PMI was revised up to 50.3 in May—signaling a slight return to growth—GBP/USD reacted bearishly. Despite the upward revision, the report revealed continued weakness in the UK economy: manufacturing remained in contraction, new business declined for the sixth straight month, and employment dropped again. While services showed modest improvement, the overall data pointed to fragile momentum, prompting a cautious market response and pressure on the pound.

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Housing Market Shows Strain as Sales Fall, Prices Hit New High​

In April 2025, U.S. existing-home sales edged down by 0.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million, marking a 2% decline compared to the previous year. Despite the slowdown, the median sales price rose to a record $414,000 for April, extending a 22-month streak of year-over-year price increases. Housing inventory increased by 9% from March to 1.45 million units, offering 4.4 months of supply at the current pace. Sales declined in the Northeast and West, grew in the Midwest, and remained flat in the South. While overall demand remained suppressed, elevated inventory levels gave buyers more leverage, even as affordability continued to challenge first-time buyers.

​

Reminder for Index Traders:​

Earnings reports are a key driver of market sentiment, particularly across major indices such as the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, DAX40, and others. Unexpected results from large-cap companies can prompt sharp intraday movements—not only due to headline figures, but also based on forward guidance, margins, and executive commentary. As earnings season unfolds, anticipate heightened volatility and trading volume, especially as global indices increasingly reflect major U.S. corporate outcomes. Remain vigilant — earnings season presents both opportunity and elevated risk.


Keep a close watch on geopolitical tensions, as they can heavily influence market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and affect global equity performance.


Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.