High‑Impact Economic Calendar – July 25, 2025
Timeline: GMT | 
Focused Currencies: GBP, USD 06:00 GMT
UK – Retail Sales MoM (June)• Forecast: +2.0% | Previous: −2.7%
Currency: GBP
Market Insight:A rebound after two months of decline would boost GBP sentiment. The UK retail sector is under pressure—markets will be watching for signs of recovery amid rising grocery inflation.
06:00 GMT UK – Retail Sales YoY (June)• Forecast: +3.5% | Previous: −1.3%
Currency: GBP
Key Implications:A strong year-over-year print would suggest meaningful spending resilience. A miss would reinforce concern over weak consumption and further drag on GBP.
06:00 GMT UK – Retail Sales Volume Index YoY (June)• Forecast: 88.9 | Previous: 88.4
Currency: GBP
What Smart Money’s Watching:Recovery in sales volume normalization may signal that consumers are finding ways to maintain spending despite inflation. Any downside surprises could trigger fresh GBP weakness.
12:30 GMT
U.S. – Durable Goods Orders MoM (June)• Forecast: −9.0% | Previous: +16.4%
Currency: USD
What’s at Stake:After an outsized rebound in May, June’s data is expected to correct sharply. A shallower drop than expected could revive USD strength; a steeper contraction may support dovish Fed narratives and weaken the greenback.
Market Reaction Highlights – Real Past Responses
• Actual: –2.7% | Forecast: –0.5% | Previous: +1.3%Market Response:
• GBP/USD dropped ~120 pips in the two hours following the release.
• Gilt yields declined ~8 bps intraday.
• FTSE 100 opened lower, led by consumer discretionary weakness.
Why It Mattered:
The significant miss deepened concerns over UK consumer fragility and raised bets that the BOE will maintain a dovish stance longer than expected.
• Actual: +16.4% | Forecast: +8.6% | Previous: −6.6%Market Response:
• USD surged, with EUR/USD falling ~60 pips over two hours post-release.
• 10-yr Treasury yields jumped ~12 bps, reflecting upward repricing of growth expectations.
• U.S. equities rallied – industrial and cap goods stocks led gains.
Why It Mattered:
The outsized book-to-air orders (especially aircraft) reinforced expectations of a cyclical rebound in manufacturing—supporting a stronger dollar and raising Fed rate path expectations.
Market Note
Today’s data prominently features UK consumer metrics before a heavy Fed calendar hits next week. Watch GBP pairs closely at 06:00 GMT; any surprise there may clash with Fed-driven USD swings around 12:30 GMT. The contrasting narratives—UK consumer strain vs U.S. industrial momentum—could amplify FX volatility, especially in GBP/USD and EUR/GBP.Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
