🧩News Recap & Tomorrow’s Outlook

[Attila]

Economic Calendar – June 29–30, 2025​

Time Zone: GMT
Focus Currencies: JPY, CNH, EUR, USD, NZD

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Sunday – June 29​

23:50 – Japan Industrial Production MoM (Prelim)

• Forecast: +0.4% | Previous: −1.1%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = JPY bullish
• Insight: A rebound in production could restore confidence after the prior decline. This data is closely tied to broader economic momentum and will be watched for early signs of Q2 manufacturing recovery.

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Monday – June 30​

01:30 – China NBS Manufacturing PMI

• Forecast: 50.4 | Previous: 49.5
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = CNH bullish
• Insight: A reading above 50 marks expansion. Markets will look for signs of stabilization amid mixed macro indicators and soft global demand. A strong print could fuel optimism around China's industrial recovery.

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06:00 – Germany Retail Sales MoM

• Forecast: +0.5% | Previous: −1.1%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = EUR bullish
• Insight: Consumer activity has been volatile. A recovery in spending would boost confidence in Germany’s domestic demand, supporting the euro if confirmed.

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06:00 – Germany Retail Sales YoY

• Forecast: +2.5% | Previous: +2.3%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = EUR bullish
• Insight: A steady improvement in annual sales could indicate deeper recovery in household consumption, though inflation-adjusted gains are key.

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12:00 – Germany Inflation Rate MoM (Prelim)

• Forecast: +0.2% | Previous: +0.1%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = EUR bullish
• Insight: Inflationary pressures remain in focus as ECB policy remains sensitive to price trends. A hotter-than-expected print may revive rate speculation.

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12:00 – Germany Inflation Rate YoY (Prelim)

• Forecast: +2.2% | Previous: +2.1%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = EUR bullish
• Insight: Markets will watch this for signs of persistent inflation. Even a slight uptick could impact ECB outlook, especially if driven by services and housing categories.

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13:45 – US Chicago PMI

• Forecast: 44.0 | Previous: 40.5
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = USD bullish
• Insight: Manufacturing sentiment in the Midwest remains weak, but a rebound here could hint at stabilization in business activity. A sub-50 reading still indicates contraction.

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14:30 – US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

• Forecast: — | Previous: −15.3
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = USD bullish
• Insight: Another key regional snapshot. Persistent contraction in Texas manufacturing may confirm broader weakness in the sector. A surprise rise would offer a glimmer of strength.

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22:45 – New Zealand Building Permits MoM

• Forecast: −1.8% | Previous: −15.6%
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = NZD bullish
• Insight: A rebound would signal potential stabilization in the construction sector after a steep drop. Building permits are a leading indicator of economic activity.

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23:50 – Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (Q2)

• Forecast: 34 | Previous: 35
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = JPY bullish
• Insight: Business confidence among services firms remains elevated. A surprise upside would reinforce resilience in domestic demand despite export headwinds.

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23:50 – Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q2)

• Forecast: 10 | Previous: 12
• Market Impact: Higher-than-expected = JPY bullish
• Insight: Manufacturing sentiment has softened amid global uncertainty. A better-than-expected result may support JPY by easing fears of industrial stagnation.

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Chart Example: How Markets React to Key Economic Releases​

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Japan’s Preliminary Industrial Production Contracts in April Despite Smaller-Than-Expected Decline​

In May, Japanese economic data painted a mixed picture. While industrial production declined by 0.9% month-on-month due to weaker auto output and the impact of U.S. tariffs, retail sales rebounded by 0.5%, supported by strong auto sales and consumer spending. Inflationary pressures remained elevated, with Tokyo core CPI rising to 3.6%, marking the fourth consecutive month of acceleration. Core-core inflation, excluding food and energy, also increased to 3.3%, indicating broad-based price growth across sectors such as housing, entertainment, and transportation. Despite weak output, the Bank of Japan faced growing pressure to act on inflation, and market expectations shifted toward a 25 basis point rate hike in July. However, concerns over fragile economic recovery, rising long-term yields, and global headwinds suggested the BoJ would proceed cautiously, potentially pausing further hikes until early next year.

USD/CNH Reaction to China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI – June 2, 2025​

In May 2025, China’s factory activity contracted for a second consecutive month, though the pace of decline slowed as the country reached a temporary trade truce with the United States. The official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 from April’s 49.0, remaining below the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction. Despite the overall contraction, the manufacturing sub-index showed some growth, and there were signs of improvement in foreign trade orders, especially among firms with U.S. ties. This followed a bilateral agreement earlier in the month that slashed U.S. tariffs from 145% to 30% for 90 days and saw China reduce its tariffs on American goods from 125% to 10%. However, uncertainty persisted, as remaining tariffs stayed well above pre-Trump levels, and tensions flared again over U.S. visa restrictions on Chinese students, prompting a protest from Beijing.

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Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

​

Reminder:​

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.​

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – July 1, 2025 ​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: CNY, JPY, CHF, EUR, USD

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01:45 GMT
China – Caixin Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: 49.2 | Previous: 48.3
Currency: CNY
Market Insight:
This index reflects real-time sentiment from China’s smaller manufacturers. Although still contracting, a higher-than-expected result may support the yuan and global risk assets.

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05:00 GMT
Japan – Consumer Confidence
Forecast: 32.5 | Previous: 32.8
Currency: JPY
What’s at Stake:
Weak consumer confidence could point to a spending slowdown in Japan’s economy. Any upside surprise may provide a lift to the yen and domestic demand outlook.

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06:30 GMT
Switzerland – Retail Sales YoY
Forecast: 1.0% | Previous: 1.3%
Currency: CHF
Key Implications:
Annual retail activity is a key driver for Swiss economic momentum. Slower sales may pressure the franc as consumer confidence softens.

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06:30 GMT
Switzerland – Retail Sales MoM
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: -0.3%
Currency: CHF
What Smart Money’s Watching:
A return to monthly growth may reflect improving consumer sentiment, offering support to the Swiss franc if sustained.

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07:55 GMT
Germany – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 6.3% | Previous: 6.3%
Currency: EUR
Behind the Numbers:
The jobless rate holds steady, but any shift could signal changes in eurozone labor dynamics and affect ECB policy tone.

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09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Inflation Rate MoM Flash
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.0%
Currency: EUR
Why It Matters:
Monthly inflation pickup may suggest rising cost pressures. Even a slight surprise can sway expectations around ECB action.

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09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash
Forecast: 2.4% | Previous: 2.3%
Currency: EUR
Trading Takeaway:
Core inflation drives ECB thinking. A beat could strengthen the euro as markets price in prolonged rate tightness.

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09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Inflation Rate YoY Flash
Forecast: 2.0% | Previous: 1.9%
Currency: EUR
Market Movers:
The headline CPI is crucial for gauging price trends. A continued rise increases pressure on the ECB to stay hawkish.

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14:00 GMT
U.S. – JOLTs Job Openings
Forecast: 7.1M | Previous: 7.391M
Currency: USD
Market Insight:
JOLTs data is a leading labor market barometer. A strong reading could reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance, lifting the dollar.

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14:00 GMT
U.S. – ISM Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: 49.2 | Previous: 48.5
Currency: USD
What’s at Stake:
Still below 50, but improving. Traders watch closely for signs of a rebound in U.S. industrial activity—crucial for GDP and Fed direction.

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Chart Examples: How Markets React to Key Economic Releases​

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Euro Weakens Sharply as Inflation Falls Below ECB Target​

In May, euro zone inflation eased more than expected to 1.9%, slipping below the European Central Bank’s 2% target for the first time in 2025, according to flash data from Eurostat. The decline was driven largely by a sharp drop in services inflation, which fell to 3.2% from 4%, while core inflation also cooled to 2.3% from April’s 2.7%. The data supported expectations for another ECB rate cut in July, following a widely anticipated 25-basis-point reduction later that week. Despite ongoing global uncertainty, including U.S. tariff threats, the OECD maintained its euro area growth forecast at 1% for 2025. The euro fell 0.3% against the dollar on the news, while bond yields across the bloc edged lower.

EUR/USD Rises After Softer U.S. Manufacturing Print​

In May, U.S. manufacturing activity declined further, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI slipping to 48.5% from April’s 48.7%, marking a continued contraction in the sector. The New Orders Index edged up to 47.6%, and the Employment Index rose slightly to 46.8%, while Production improved modestly to 45.4%, suggesting a slower pace of decline. Meanwhile, the Prices Index remained high at 69.4%, indicating persistent input cost pressures. Overall, the data pointed to a fragile industrial environment, dampening economic sentiment and reinforcing uncertainty around growth as the Federal Reserve weighs its next steps.


Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

**Reminder:​

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – July 2, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, EUR, USD

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01:30 GMT
Australia – Building Permits MoM (May)
Forecast: 5.2% | Previous: -5.7%
Currency: AUD
Market Insight:
A sharp rebound in approvals would signal renewed strength in Australia’s housing pipeline, often seen as a lead indicator for broader economic activity.

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01:30 GMT
Australia – Retail Sales MoM (May)
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: -0.1%
Currency: AUD
Consumer Pulse:
Retail activity is the heartbeat of the economy. A stronger-than-expected print would support AUD and signal rising consumer confidence.

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09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Unemployment Rate (June)
Forecast: 6.2% | Previous: 6.2%
Currency: EUR
Stability Watch:
No change is forecast, but a downside surprise could boost the euro by reinforcing labor market strength and domestic demand.

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12:15 GMT
United States – ADP Employment Change (June)
Forecast: 90K | Previous: 37K
Currency: USD
Jobs Watch:
Seen as a lead-in to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls, a strong beat here would reinforce labor market resilience and support the dollar ahead of key Fed decisions.

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️News Moves Markets: A Chart Breakdown of a High-Impact Release​

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June 4 ADP Report Misses Forecasts, Triggers Market Reaction ​

On June 4, 2025, ADP reported that U.S. private sector hiring rose by just 37,000 jobs in May — sharply below expectations of 110,000 and marking the lowest monthly increase since March 2023. The slowdown followed a downwardly revised 60,000 gain in April, signaling a possible loss of labor market momentum.

The weak print spurred immediate reactions in both markets and policy circles. President Trump demanded the Federal Reserve lower interest rates, citing the jobs miss and comparing the Fed unfavorably to Europe’s multiple rate cuts.
Sector-wise, manufacturing and mining saw notable job losses, while leisure, hospitality, and financial services offered limited support. Small and large firms shed workers, while mid-sized companies added 49,000 jobs.
Despite the hiring slowdown, wage growth remained steady, with a 4.5% annual increase for job holders and 7% for job switchers — levels still considered robust by ADP.

The data, released two days ahead of the official nonfarm payrolls report, highlighted growing uncertainty around the labor market and added to expectations for a dovish policy shift, helping drive volatility in GBP/USD.



Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

​

**Reminder:​

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – July 3, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, CNY, CHF, USD, CAD, JPY

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01:30
Australia – Balance of Trade
Forecast: A$5.2B | Previous: A$5.413B
Currency: AUD
Market Insight:
Australia’s trade surplus is key to its current account strength. A better-than-expected reading may support the AUD by signaling robust export demand, especially in key sectors like iron ore and LNG.

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01:45
China – Caixin Services PMI
Forecast: 51.3 | Previous: 51.1
Currency: CNY
Key Implications:
A modest improvement suggests ongoing recovery in China’s service sector. A reading above 50 supports the yuan and signals resilience in domestic demand.

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06:30
Switzerland – Inflation Rate MoM
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.1%
Currency: CHF
What’s at Stake:
Flat monthly price growth keeps pressure off the SNB. Any upside surprise could reinforce the case for policy tightening and boost the franc.

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06:30
Switzerland – Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: -0.1%
Currency: CHF
Market Focus:
Yearly deflation remains a concern. Persistent negative CPI may weigh on the CHF, especially if broader eurozone inflation picks up.

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12:30
U.S. – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 4.2% | Previous: 4.2%
Currency: USD
Macro Watch:
Stable unemployment may give the Fed time before acting on rates. A downside surprise could ignite USD strength on improving labor market signals.

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12:30
U.S. – Average Hourly Earnings MoM
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.4%
Currency: USD
Behind the Numbers:
Wage growth is closely watched for inflation clues. A slowdown may dampen Fed rate hike expectations, while an upside beat could support the dollar.

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12:30
U.S. – Non-Farm Payrolls
Forecast: 100K | Previous: 139K
Currency: USD
Trading Takeaway:
This is the headline event. A weak print may confirm a softening labor market and pressure the USD. A surprise beat could shift Fed expectations dramatically.

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12:30
U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 240K | Previous: 236K
Currency: USD
What Smart Money’s Watching:
Rising claims may fuel dovish Fed sentiment. Markets will watch closely for signs of stress ahead of the NFP print.

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12:30
Canada – Balance of Trade
Forecast: -C$6.4B | Previous: -C$7.14B
Currency: CAD
Why It Matters:
A narrower deficit could signal strength in Canada’s export sectors. Improvement may support the loonie, especially amid rising energy shipments.

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14:00
U.S. – ISM Services PMI
Forecast: 49.7 | Previous: 49.9
Currency: USD
What’s at Stake:
Still below expansion territory. Another sub-50 reading could deepen growth concerns and weigh on the dollar.

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14:00
U.S. – Factory Orders MoM
Forecast: 9.5% | Previous: -3.7%
Currency: USD
Key Implications:
A sharp rebound could indicate strong industrial demand. This may counterbalance weaker job data and provide support to the greenback.

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23:30
Japan – Household Spending YoY
Forecast: 0.9% | Previous: -0.1%
Currency: JPY
Market Insight:
A return to positive spending could signal improving consumer sentiment in Japan. A beat would support the yen amid BoJ policy speculation.

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Market Pulse: What Really Happens When Key Data Drops​

USDCHF Reaction – Swiss Inflation (June 3, 2025)​

In May, Swiss inflation returned to negative territory at -0.1% year-on-year, posing a renewed challenge for the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The decline was largely driven by external factors such as a strong Swiss franc and falling global energy prices, which pulled down import and administered costs. Despite stable service and core inflation, the overall CPI fell below the SNB’s target range of 0% to 2%. In response, the SNB was expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, with a further cut likely in September—possibly returning rates to negative territory. Markets also anticipated increased foreign exchange intervention to weaken the franc, though this strategy carried geopolitical risks, particularly with the U.S. Switzerland’s persistent deflationary pressures left the SNB facing tough policy decisions in the months ahead.

GBPUSD Reaction – ISM Services PMI (June 4, 2025)​

The U.S. services sector unexpectedly slipped into contraction in May, with the ISM Services PMI falling to 49.9 from 51.6 in April — marking the first contraction since June 2024. New orders sharply declined to 46.4%, while business activity edged down to 50%. Despite the weaker headline, employment improved slightly, rising to 50.7%, and inventory sentiment jumped to 62.9%. While not signaling a deep downturn, the data reflected growing uncertainty, with the three-month average PMI of 50.8 indicating a slowdown from the prior nine-month average of 52.8, according to ISM.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

​

Reminder:​

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – July 4, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: CHF, EUR

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05:45 GMT
Switzerland – Unemployment Rate (June)
Forecast: 2.7% | Previous: 2.8%
Currency: CHF
Labor Market Snapshot:
A lower-than-expected jobless rate would indicate improving labor market conditions. While this is a lagging indicator, a positive surprise may support the franc through boosted consumer confidence.

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06:00 GMT
Germany – Factory Orders MoM (May)
Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.6%
Currency: EUR
Production Pipeline Pulse:
Factory orders offer a forward-looking view of Germany’s manufacturing outlook. A beat may signal stronger upcoming industrial activity and lift the euro.

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06:45 GMT
France – Industrial Production MoM (May)
Forecast: 0.7% | Previous: -1.4%
Currency: EUR
Market Insight:
After a sharp contraction in April, a rebound in industrial output would suggest early signs of recovery. A stronger reading may provide near-term support to the euro.

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08:00 GMT
Italy – Retail Sales YoY (May)
Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 3.7%
Currency: EUR
Consumer Trends:
Annual retail sales reflect overall household spending strength. A slowdown from April could temper euro optimism unless offset by positive monthly data.

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08:00 GMT
Italy – Retail Sales MoM (May)
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.7%
Currency: EUR
What to Watch:
Retail spending is a key economic driver. Even modest monthly growth would help offset slower yearly momentum and may stabilize EUR sentiment.

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09:00 GMT
Euro Area – PPI MoM (May)
Forecast: -0.6% | Previous: -2.2%
Currency: EUR
Inflation Input Watch:
Producer prices reflect upstream cost pressures. A milder decline may ease deflation concerns, potentially supporting the euro if producer margins stabilize.

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09:00 GMT
Euro Area – PPI YoY (May)
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.7%
Currency: EUR
Inflation Direction:
Annual PPI data helps assess medium-term price trends. A further slowdown could suggest continued weakness in pipeline inflation, influencing ECB tone.

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Turning Economic Releases into Trade Opportunities​

Swiss Unemployment Steady at 2.8%, USDCHF Extends on U.S. Data Weakness​

Switzerland’s unemployment rate remained steady at 2.8% in April 2025, as expected, with the number of registered jobseekers falling to 130,101 from 132,569 in March, according to the Federal Statistics Office. While the headline rate held firm, the modest decline in unemployment indicated a gradually strengthening labour market. The data aligned with recent business sentiment surveys that suggested employers had maintained staffing levels, reinforcing economic stability. With no surprises in the release, near-term market reaction was muted, and the Swiss National Bank faced little pressure for immediate policy shifts based on labour conditions alone.

However, while the Swiss data set an early tone for USDCHF, broader price action later in the session reflected additional drivers. Weaker-than-expected U.S. trade balance data and a notable decline in economic optimism contributed to a softening U.S. dollar, extending downside pressure on USDCHF beyond the initial reaction. This layered response highlights how CHF movement on the day was shaped by both domestic stability and external dollar weakness.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

​

Reminder:​

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[somrat4030]

This information is highly valuable - I’ll be ready to catch them sharp currency movements. Thank you.

 

[Attila]

This information is highly valuable - I’ll be ready to catch them sharp currency movements. Thank you.

Thank you—really appreciate the feedback. With several key events on the horizon, staying alert to sharp currency moves is a smart move. Markets remain focused on the July 9 tariff deadline, as unresolved trade talks with Japan keep uncertainty elevated. With Q2 earnings and inflation data approaching—and July historically one of the strongest months for the S&P 500—this period could be pivotal in shaping the market’s direction for the rest of 2025.

 

[Attila]

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Top Economic Releases to Watch – July 7, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: EUR

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06:00
Germany – Industrial Production MoM (May)
Forecast: 0.6% | Previous: -1.4%
Currency: EUR
Why It Matters:
This figure tracks inflation-adjusted output from German manufacturers, mines, and utilities. As a leading economic indicator, a stronger-than-expected result can lift the euro, signaling resilience in Europe’s largest economy.

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09:00
Euro Area – Retail Sales MoM (May)
Forecast: -1.0% | Previous: 0.1%
Currency: EUR
Key Insight:
Retail sales are a critical gauge of consumer activity. A monthly drop may point to weakening domestic demand, especially if contraction appears in Germany, France, or Italy—the eurozone’s major consumer bases.

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09:00
Euro Area – Retail Sales YoY (May)
Forecast: 1.7% | Previous: 2.3%
Currency: EUR
Market Watch:
Annual comparisons highlight broader consumption trends. A slowdown could weigh on the euro as investors reassess household spending momentum across the bloc.


Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Reminder:​

Earnings season is a powerful catalyst for price action across global markets. While headline indices like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often lead the narrative, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can respond just as sharply. Market sentiment is driven not only by reported results, but also by forward guidance and executive tone—making this a critical period of both heightened opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – July 8, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, EUR, CAD

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01:30 GMT
Australia – NAB Business Confidence (June)
Forecast: -5 | Previous: 2
Currency: AUD
Market Insight:
This business sentiment index excludes the farming sector and is a leading indicator of economic health. A reading below zero signals deteriorating confidence. If sentiment proves stronger than expected, it could offer support to the Australian dollar.

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04:30 GMT
Australia – RBA Interest Rate Decision
Forecast: 3.60% | Previous: 3.85%
Currency: AUD
What’s at Stake:
The RBA’s rate setting is a key driver of AUD valuation. A cut to 3.60%, if confirmed, may weigh on the currency. Traders will also watch the accompanying statement for clues on the central bank's future stance.

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06:00 GMT
Germany – Balance of Trade (May)
Forecast: €16.8B | Previous: €14.6B
Currency: EUR
Key Implications:
A strong trade surplus often boosts the euro, reflecting healthy export demand and economic resilience. A beat may signal strength in Germany’s manufacturing and export sectors, especially critical amid global trade uncertainty.

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14:00 GMT
Canada – Ivey PMI s.a (June)
Forecast: 49.0 | Previous: 48.9
Currency: CAD
Why It Matters:
The Ivey PMI gauges economic activity based on purchasing managers' responses. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. A surprise rebound could lift the Canadian dollar, signaling improved business sentiment.

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High-impact news can spark rapid price swings. This chart shows how markets reacted—and what traders should expect during major releases.​

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Mixed Ivey PMI: Canada Beats Forecasts but Stays in Contraction​

In May 2025, Canadian economic activity contracted for a second consecutive month, with the seasonally adjusted Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rising slightly to 48.9 from 47.9 in April, though still below the 50 threshold that signals expansion. The reading surpassed expectations of 48.3 but continued to reflect underlying weakness. Despite the overall contraction, the employment index improved to 51.1 from 48.0, suggesting modest job gains. Inventories also rose to 54.9 from 53.1, while supplier deliveries slowed further to 47.5 from 45.1, indicating longer wait times. Meanwhile, the price index eased to 66.9 from 70.0, pointing to some relief in cost pressures. The unadjusted PMI increased to 53.8 from 52.3, highlighting mixed signals in the Canadian economy during the month.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

​

​

Reminder:​

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – July 9, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: CNY, NZD, USD, GBP, JPY

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01:30
China – Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: -0.1%
Currency: CNY
Market Insight:
Consumer inflation inches back into positive territory, signaling fragile recovery in domestic demand. A stronger print could boost the yuan, hinting at stabilizing price trends.

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01:30
China – Producer Price Index YoY
Forecast: -3.0% | Previous: -3.3%
Currency: CNY
Why It Matters:
Though still in deflation, a smaller decline suggests easing price pressure at the factory gate. Markets will watch for signs the deflationary cycle is bottoming out.

---

01:30
China – Inflation Rate MoM
Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: -0.2%
Currency: CNY
What Smart Money’s Watching:
A flat monthly CPI indicates cautious price recovery. Even modest gains could offer evidence of returning domestic momentum.

---

02:00
New Zealand – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
Forecast: 3.25% | Previous: 3.25%
Currency: NZD
Policy Watch:
No change is expected, but the tone of the statement is key. A hawkish tilt could revive kiwi strength, while dovish notes may pressure it lower.

---

18:00
U.S. – FOMC Meeting Minutes
Currency: USD
Behind the Curtain:
Markets will parse every line for Fed rate path clues. A hawkish read may lift the dollar and yields, while dovish commentary could reignite risk appetite.

---

23:01
United Kingdom – RICS House Price Balance
Forecast: -10% | Previous: -8%
Currency: GBP
Why It Matters:
A further dip in property sentiment signals ongoing housing market strain. Persistent weakness may weigh on the pound if rate expectations ease.

---

23:50
Japan – Producer Price Index MoM
Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: -0.2%
Currency: JPY
Key Implications:
Flat producer prices could signal cost stabilization in Japan’s supply chain. A surprise rise may point to creeping inflationary pressure.

---

23:50
Japan – Producer Price Index YoY
Forecast: 3.0% | Previous: 3.2%
Currency: JPY
Trading Takeaway:
Annual PPI decline could suggest fading upstream inflation. The yen may react if the data diverges meaningfully from forecasts.

​

​

Markets don’t just move—they react. See how high-impact news triggers volatility and what it means for your next trade.​

RBNZ Rate Cut Triggers NZD Weakness Amid Global Uncertainty – May 2025​

On May 28, 2025, New Zealand’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 5–1 to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.25%. The decision reflected weakening global growth due to rising tariffs and policy uncertainty, along with signs of spare capacity in the domestic economy. While headline inflation had risen to 2.5%, core inflation was declining, and inflation expectations remained broadly anchored. The RBNZ anticipated inflation would return to the 2% midpoint over time, supported by high export prices and earlier rate cuts. Despite global risks and uncertainty around import prices and supply chains, the Committee judged the rate cut to be consistent with maintaining medium-term price stability.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – July 10, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: EUR, USD

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08:00 GMT
Italy – Industrial Production MoM (May)
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 1.0%
Currency: EUR
Market Insight:
This inflation-adjusted gauge of output from manufacturers, miners, and utilities is a bellwether of economic health. A weaker print could suggest waning momentum in the Italian recovery. Traders watch for surprises—higher-than-expected output could support the euro.

---

12:30 GMT
U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
Forecast: 245K | Previous: 233K
Currency: USD
What’s at Stake:
A key gauge of labor market strength. While considered lagging, a rising trend in claims could signal softening employment conditions and dent consumer confidence. A stronger-than-expected print (i.e., fewer claims) could reinforce the Fed’s wait-and-see stance and support the dollar.

​

Markets don’t just move—they react. See how high-impact news triggers volatility and what it means for your next trade.​

Robust U.S. Jobs Data Triggers EUR/USD Sell-Off - July 3, 2025​

U.S. payrolls rose by 147,000 in June 2025, surpassing expectations of 110,000 and slightly exceeding May’s revised figure of 144,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, the lowest since February, while the broader underemployment rate edged down to 7.7%. Despite these gains, the labor force participation rate fell to 62.3% as more people exited the workforce. Government hiring led job creation with a 73,000 increase, particularly in local education. Healthcare and social assistance also added jobs, while manufacturing lost 7,000. The stronger-than-expected labor data reduced the likelihood of a July Fed rate cut, with market odds plunging to 4.7%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, showing limited wage inflation. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims dropped to 233,000 for the week ending June 28, below estimates and the prior week’s revised 237,000. The four-week average also declined to 241,500, while continuing claims decreased by 10,000 to 1.964 million, reflecting further strength in the U.S. labor market.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major driver of price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – July 3, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, CNY, CHF, USD, CAD, JPY

---

01:30
Australia – Balance of Trade
Forecast: A$5.2B | Previous: A$5.413B
Currency: AUD
Market Insight:
Australia’s trade surplus is key to its current account strength. A better-than-expected reading may support the AUD by signaling robust export demand, especially in key sectors like iron ore and LNG.

---

01:45
China – Caixin Services PMI
Forecast: 51.3 | Previous: 51.1
Currency: CNY
Key Implications:
A modest improvement suggests ongoing recovery in China’s service sector. A reading above 50 supports the yuan and signals resilience in domestic demand.

---

06:30
Switzerland – Inflation Rate MoM
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.1%
Currency: CHF
What’s at Stake:
Flat monthly price growth keeps pressure off the SNB. Any upside surprise could reinforce the case for policy tightening and boost the franc.

---

06:30
Switzerland – Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: -0.1%
Currency: CHF
Market Focus:
Yearly deflation remains a concern. Persistent negative CPI may weigh on the CHF, especially if broader eurozone inflation picks up.

---

12:30
U.S. – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 4.2% | Previous: 4.2%
Currency: USD
Macro Watch:
Stable unemployment may give the Fed time before acting on rates. A downside surprise could ignite USD strength on improving labor market signals.

---

12:30
U.S. – Average Hourly Earnings MoM
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.4%
Currency: USD
Behind the Numbers:
Wage growth is closely watched for inflation clues. A slowdown may dampen Fed rate hike expectations, while an upside beat could support the dollar.

---

12:30
U.S. – Non-Farm Payrolls
Forecast: 100K | Previous: 139K
Currency: USD
Trading Takeaway:
This is the headline event. A weak print may confirm a softening labor market and pressure the USD. A surprise beat could shift Fed expectations dramatically.

---

12:30
U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 240K | Previous: 236K
Currency: USD
What Smart Money’s Watching:
Rising claims may fuel dovish Fed sentiment. Markets will watch closely for signs of stress ahead of the NFP print.

---

12:30
Canada – Balance of Trade
Forecast: -C$6.4B | Previous: -C$7.14B
Currency: CAD
Why It Matters:
A narrower deficit could signal strength in Canada’s export sectors. Improvement may support the loonie, especially amid rising energy shipments.

---

14:00
U.S. – ISM Services PMI
Forecast: 49.7 | Previous: 49.9
Currency: USD
What’s at Stake:
Still below expansion territory. Another sub-50 reading could deepen growth concerns and weigh on the dollar.

---

14:00
U.S. – Factory Orders MoM
Forecast: 9.5% | Previous: -3.7%
Currency: USD
Key Implications:
A sharp rebound could indicate strong industrial demand. This may counterbalance weaker job data and provide support to the greenback.

---

23:30
Japan – Household Spending YoY
Forecast: 0.9% | Previous: -0.1%
Currency: JPY
Market Insight:
A return to positive spending could signal improving consumer sentiment in Japan. A beat would support the yen amid BoJ policy speculation.

​

Market Pulse: What Really Happens When Key Data Drops​

USDCHF Reaction – Swiss Inflation (June 3, 2025)​

In May, Swiss inflation returned to negative territory at -0.1% year-on-year, posing a renewed challenge for the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The decline was largely driven by external factors such as a strong Swiss franc and falling global energy prices, which pulled down import and administered costs. Despite stable service and core inflation, the overall CPI fell below the SNB’s target range of 0% to 2%. In response, the SNB was expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, with a further cut likely in September—possibly returning rates to negative territory. Markets also anticipated increased foreign exchange intervention to weaken the franc, though this strategy carried geopolitical risks, particularly with the U.S. Switzerland’s persistent deflationary pressures left the SNB facing tough policy decisions in the months ahead.

View attachment 18376

GBPUSD Reaction – ISM Services PMI (June 4, 2025)​

The U.S. services sector unexpectedly slipped into contraction in May, with the ISM Services PMI falling to 49.9 from 51.6 in April — marking the first contraction since June 2024. New orders sharply declined to 46.4%, while business activity edged down to 50%. Despite the weaker headline, employment improved slightly, rising to 50.7%, and inventory sentiment jumped to 62.9%. While not signaling a deep downturn, the data reflected growing uncertainty, with the three-month average PMI of 50.8 indicating a slowdown from the prior nine-month average of 52.8, according to ISM.

View attachment 18375




Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

​

Reminder:​

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

USD/CHF Trade Recap: CPI-Driven Rally Nets Strong Gains (With more Room Left to Run)
The June 2025 Swiss CPI report showed persistently weak inflation, with headline CPI rising just 0.2% month-over-month and only 0.1% year-over-year. Core inflation increased a modest 0.6%, while imported goods prices fell 1.9% from the prior year, underscoring a broader disinflationary trend. These figures highlighted the limited price pressures in the Swiss economy and reinforced the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) dovish stance, which had already been in focus following earlier rate cuts in 2025. With inflation well below target, the report raised market expectations for further monetary easing, including the possibility of additional rate reductions or extended policy accommodation. As a result, the Swiss franc weakened notably—particularly against currencies supported by stronger macro data and more hawkish policy outlooks. This dynamic was clearly reflected in USDCHF, which rallied sharply following the CPI release, capturing both CHF weakness and simultaneous USD strength driven by robust U.S. labor data released later the same day.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

Key Economic Events to Watch – July 11, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: GBP, CAD

---

09:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Industrial Production MoM (May)
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: -0.6%
Currency: GBP
Sector Snapshot:
Industrial production captures output trends across UK industry, with manufacturing making up 70%—notably food, transport, and pharmaceuticals. A rebound may suggest momentum in key sectors, supporting the pound.

---

09:00 GMT
United Kingdom – GDP MoM (May)
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: -0.3%
Currency: GBP
Market Significance:
Monthly GDP offers a high-frequency read of UK economic health. Even small upticks can shift growth expectations and influence Bank of England sentiment.

---

15:30 GMT
Canada – Building Permits MoM (May)
Forecast: 0.9% | Previous: -6.6%
Currency: CAD
Economic Barometer:
Permits signal future construction activity and broader investment trends. A rebound from last month’s drop may restore some confidence in the housing pipeline.

---

15:30 GMT
Canada – Unemployment Rate (June)
Forecast: 7.0% | Previous: 7.0%
Currency: CAD
What to Watch:
Steady unemployment suggests labor market stagnation. Any surprise uptick could increase pressure on the Bank of Canada to shift policy dovishly.

---

15:30 GMT
Canada – Employment Change (June)
Forecast: 10K | Previous: 8.8K
Currency: CAD
Why It Matters:
A key gauge of labor strength, job gains often precede rises in consumer spending. A stronger figure would support CAD and growth sentiment.

---

15:30 GMT
Canada – Full-Time Employment Change (June)
Forecast: -11K | Previous: 57.7K
Currency: CAD
Behind the Decline:
A potential drop in full-time jobs could offset headline employment gains, suggesting softness in job quality even if overall figures improve.

​

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility​

Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – July 13, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currency: JPY

---

23:50 GMT
Japan – Machinery Orders MoM
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: -9.1%
Currency: JPY
Market Insight:
Seen as a forward-looking indicator of industrial activity, this release could spark volatility. A return to positive growth suggests improving business sentiment and may support the yen if realized.

---

23:50 GMT
Japan – Machinery Orders YoY
Forecast: 5.5% | Previous: 6.6%
Currency: JPY
What Traders Watch:
This yearly gauge reflects broader capital expenditure trends. A stronger-than-expected result would imply resilience in corporate investment, lifting confidence in Japan’s economic trajectory.

High-Impact Economic Calendar – July 14, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currency: CNY

---

03:00 GMT
China – Exports YoY
Forecast: 5.5% | Previous: 4.8%
Currency: CNY
Global Signal:
Export growth highlights external demand. A stronger-than-expected print could boost the yuan and signal global trade resilience—especially meaningful in today’s tariff-sensitive climate.

---

03:00 GMT
China – Balance of Trade
Forecast: $100B | Previous: $103.22B
Currency: CNY
Why It Matters:
The trade surplus is a major driver of capital inflows. A narrower surplus may point to stronger domestic consumption or weaker global demand—both key for policy expectations and market sentiment.

---

03:00 GMT
China – Imports YoY
Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: -3.4%
Currency: CNY
Market Insight:
A turnaround in import growth signals recovering domestic demand. If confirmed, it could lend support to risk assets and shift sentiment on China’s economic outlook.

Chart Example: How Markets React to Key Economic Releases​

Deflation Deepens and Trade Cools in China, Delaying Rate Cut Outlook (June 9, 2025)​

In May 2025, China’s trade momentum slowed and deflationary pressures persisted, raising concerns about the country’s economic trajectory. Export growth eased to 4.8% year-on-year from 8.1% in April, falling short of expectations, while imports contracted by 3.3% for a third consecutive month. Despite a sharp -34.5% drop in exports to the U.S., solid gains in shipments to ASEAN and the EU helped keep overall export performance resilient. China’s trade surplus rose to $103.2 billion, marking a four-month high. Meanwhile, CPI inflation remained in negative territory at -0.1% YoY, dragged by falling food and transport prices, and producer price inflation extended its contraction streak to 32 months at -3.3%. With weak domestic demand and tariff uncertainty lingering, analysts signaled the People’s Bank of China may delay its next interest rate cut until Q4 2025.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility​

Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a key driver of volatility across global equity markets. While major indices like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often lead the headlines, broader benchmarks around the world can also move sharply. It’s not just the results that matter — forward guidance and executive tone often shape market sentiment, turning this period into a window of both opportunity and risk.


Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – July 15, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, CNY, EUR, USD, CAD

---

00:30 GMT
Australia – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (July)
Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.5%
Currency: AUD
Market Insight:
As a leading indicator of household sentiment, a positive surprise in consumer confidence could support the Australian dollar and indicate improving economic expectations.

---

02:00 GMT
China – Unemployment Rate (June)
Forecast: 5.1% | Previous: 5.0%
Currency: CNY
What’s at Stake:
A rise in unemployment could signal cooling momentum in China’s economy. A lower-than-expected print would offer support to the yuan and risk sentiment globally.

---

02:00 GMT
China – Industrial Production YoY (June)
Forecast: 5.5% | Previous: 5.8%
Currency: CNY
Key Implications:
Weaker industrial growth may raise concerns about the sustainability of China’s recovery. A beat could lift CNY and boost commodity-linked currencies.

---

02:00 GMT
China – GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q2)
Forecast: 1.1% | Previous: 1.2%
Currency: CNY
What Smart Money’s Watching:
Slowing quarterly GDP may confirm challenges in China’s post-COVID rebound. Markets will look to services strength for offsetting weakness in manufacturing.

---

02:00 GMT
China – Retail Sales YoY (June)
Forecast: 6.1% | Previous: 6.4%
Currency: CNY
Why It Matters:
Retail performance is key to gauging consumer resilience. Sluggish growth could weigh on the yuan and amplify global demand concerns.

---

02:00 GMT
China – GDP Growth Rate YoY (Q2)
Forecast: 5.3% | Previous: 5.4%
Currency: CNY
Market Movers:
This headline print will steer overall market tone for Asia. A weaker-than-expected number could spark risk-off flows and pressure EMFX.

---

09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Industrial Production MoM (May)
Forecast: 0.8% | Previous: -2.4%
Currency: EUR
Behind the Numbers:
A rebound in eurozone factory output could support the euro and reduce ECB easing expectations. Markets will gauge if this recovery is sustainable.

---

09:00 GMT
Germany – ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)
Forecast: 49.1 | Previous: 47.5
Currency: EUR
Trading Takeaway:
Stronger investor sentiment would indicate optimism for Europe’s largest economy. A strong result could reinforce EUR strength.

---

12:30 GMT
United States – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (July)
Forecast: -13.0 | Previous: -16.0
Currency: USD
Focus Point:
Still in contraction, but a narrowing deficit may signal improving conditions. Watch for upward momentum in manufacturing sentiment.

---

12:30 GMT
United States – Core Inflation Rate MoM (June)
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.1%
Currency: USD
What’s at Stake:
Sticky core inflation could reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance and lift the dollar. A higher reading would suggest persistent pricing pressure.

---

12:30 GMT
United States – Core Inflation Rate YoY (June)
Forecast: 2.9% | Previous: 2.8%
Currency: USD
Key Implications:
Markets will watch closely for signs of re-acceleration in core price growth, especially with Fed policy hanging in the balance.

---

12:30 GMT
United States – Inflation Rate MoM (June)
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.1%
Currency: USD
What Smart Money’s Watching:
Headline CPI matters for consumer behavior and market psychology. Even a modest beat could jolt rate expectations.

---

12:30 GMT
Canada – Inflation Rate YoY (June)
Forecast: 1.5% | Previous: 1.7%
Currency: CAD
Market Insight:
Falling inflation could give the Bank of Canada space to ease. A surprise rebound may instead pressure policymakers to pause.

---

12:30 GMT
Canada – Inflation Rate MoM (June)
Forecast: -0.3% | Previous: 0.6%
Currency: CAD
What’s at Stake:
A negative monthly print would reflect weakening price momentum and possibly shift rate expectations dovish.

---

12:30 GMT
Canada – Core Inflation Rate MoM (June)
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.6%
Currency: CAD
Behind the Numbers:
Core figures are key to the BoC’s forward guidance. Persistent softness may weigh on the loonie.

---

12:30 GMT
Canada – Core Inflation Rate YoY (June)
Forecast: 2.6% | Previous: 2.5%
Currency: CAD
Trading Takeaway:
Any deviation from expectations will likely influence CAD volatility and short-term yield pricing.

How Key Economic Releases Impact Markets: Illustrated Example​

U.S. CPI Release – June 11, 2025​

In May 2025, U.S. inflation showed signs of easing despite market concerns over President Trump's tariff policies. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose just 0.1% month over month, slowing from April’s 0.2% gain and coming in below economists’ expectations. On a yearly basis, CPI climbed 2.4%, a slight uptick from April's 2.3%, while core CPI—excluding food and energy—rose 2.8% annually and 0.1% on the month. Falling prices for vehicles and apparel, sectors sensitive to tariffs, helped ease core inflation pressures. Shelter remained a key driver of inflation, rising 0.3% in May, while energy prices dropped 1.0% due to lower gasoline costs. Food prices also rose 0.3% after dipping in April. Despite fears that tariffs would accelerate price growth, economists observed minimal pass-through effects so far. However, risks remain as baseline tariffs persist and new trade deals are still in progress. With the Federal Reserve set to meet next week, markets continued to anticipate a steady interest rate path, as policymakers await clearer signs on long-term inflation trends.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High-Impact Economic Calendar – July 16, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: GBP, USD, JPY

---

06:00 GMT
UK – Core Inflation Rate MoM (June)
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%
Currency: GBP
Market Insight:
Reflects price changes excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco. A higher-than-expected reading may boost the pound by raising expectations of tighter BoE policy.

---

06:00 GMT
UK – Inflation Rate YoY (June)
Forecast: 3.5% | Previous: 3.4%
Currency: GBP
Why It Matters:
Headline inflation is central to monetary policy. A higher CPI print can influence BoE interest rate decisions and strengthen GBP.

---

06:00 GMT
UK – Core Inflation Rate YoY (June)
Forecast: 3.6% | Previous: 3.5%
Currency: GBP
Trading Takeaway:
While the BoE targets overall CPI, core figures give insight into underlying pressures. A higher core rate supports expectations for tighter policy.

---

06:00 GMT
UK – Inflation Rate MoM (June)
Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.2%
Currency: GBP
Market Movers:
Monthly gains show the pace of consumer price increases. A jump could stoke rate hike bets.

---

12:30 GMT
U.S. – Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM (June)
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.1%
Currency: USD
Why It Matters:
As a leading indicator of consumer inflation, a strong PPI reading could prompt the Fed to maintain higher rates longer—bullish for USD.

---

12:30 GMT
U.S. – Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY (June)
Forecast: 2.6% | Previous: 2.6%
Currency: USD
Key Insight:
Stable annual PPI suggests producer-side inflation is under control. A deviation could shape future Fed outlook.

---

13:15 GMT
U.S. – Industrial Production MoM (June)
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: -0.2%
Currency: USD
What’s at Stake:
A rebound in production indicates stronger economic momentum. It’s a closely watched gauge of real economic activity.

---

23:50 GMT
Japan – Balance of Trade (June)
Forecast: -¥100B | Previous: -¥637.6B
Currency: JPY
What Smart Money’s Watching:
A narrowing trade deficit would support the yen by signaling improving export demand, especially amid global trade tension.

---

23:50 GMT
Japan – Exports YoY (June)
Forecast: 1.0% | Previous: -1.7%
Currency: JPY
Behind the Numbers:
Export recovery would point to rising external demand, helping Japan’s GDP and boosting the yen.

---

23:50 GMT
Japan – Imports YoY (June)
Forecast: -2.0% | Previous: -7.7%
Currency: JPY
Market Insight:
A slower decline in imports could indicate stabilizing domestic demand, but a weaker number may signal economic softness.

​

Chart Example: How Markets React to Key Economic Releases​

​

GBP/USD Price Reaction – U.S. Core PPI & PPI Inflation Data (June 12, 2025)​

In May 2025, U.S. wholesale inflation rose slightly, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) increasing by 0.1%, bringing the annual rate to 2.6%. While economists had expected a slightly higher monthly gain, the rise was driven mainly by costlier goods, although the impact of tariffs remained relatively muted. Revisions to April data showed trade service margins were not as squeezed as initially thought, and May saw moderate gains in both goods and services prices. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, also rose 0.1%, with annual core inflation easing to 3%. Analysts noted that tariff effects were gradually filtering into input costs, especially in metals and machinery, but broader consumer price impacts were still developing. The Federal Reserve, faced with this mixed inflation data, was seen as likely to delay rate cuts until early fall.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.
Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

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Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.

 

[Attila]

High‑Impact Economic Calendar – July 17, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, GBP, USD, JPY

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01:30 GMT
Australia – Employment Change (June)
Forecast: +25K | Previous: –2.5K
Currency: AUD
Market Insight:
A sharp rebound would signal improving labour demand and likely support AUD. A softer print may pressure the currency as markets reassess the RBA's outlook.

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06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Employment Change (May, 3‑month avg)
Forecast: +50K | Previous: +89K
Currency: GBP
Key Implications:
A clear deceleration from March figures. If confirmed, this could tilt sentiment dovish for the BOE and weigh on GBP, especially if unemployment ticks higher.

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12:30 GMT
U.S. – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (July)
Forecast: –3 | Previous: –4
Currency: USD
What’s at Stake:
Markets want signs of recovery in U.S. manufacturing. A weaker print would reinforce slowdown fears and undermine the dollar.

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12:30 GMT
U.S. – Retail Sales MoM (June)
Forecast: +0.2% | Previous: –0.9%
Currency: USD
Smart Money’s Watching:
After May’s shock contraction, investors need reassurance. A rebound supports risk assets and strengthens USD; a miss could destabilize equities and renew cut bets.

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12:30 GMT
U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims (week ending July 12)
Forecast: 230K | Previous: 227K
Currency: USD
Market Insight:
Stability near forecast suggests the labor market remains tight. A jump above 240K could weaken USD and push yields lower intraday.

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23:30 GMT
Japan – Inflation Rate MoM (June)
Forecast: +0.1% | Previous: +0.3%
Currency: JPY
Behind the Numbers:
A slowdown would affirm the BOJ’s cautious stance. JPY bears may gain momentum if inflation undershoots or wages remain flat.

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Market Reaction Highlights – Past Responses​

Retail Sales MoM – Last Released: June 17, 2025 at 12:30 GMT​

• Actual: –0.9% | Forecast: –0.4% | Previous (Revised): +0.1%
Markets were caught off guard as retail sales plunged. The broad-based drop led traders to question U.S. growth resilience.

Real Reactions:
• EUR/USD jumped ~75 pips from 1.1530 to 1.1605
• USD/JPY fell from ~158.00 to ~157.30
• U.S. 2-yr yields dropped ~10 bps
• S&P 500 declined 0.4% intraday before stabilizing

Why It Mattered:
The sharp miss raised fears that consumption was fading fast. Traders quickly repriced Fed expectations, triggering USD weakness and a pivot to safe-haven assets.

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Philadelphia Fed Index – Last Released: June 20, 2025 at 12:30 GMT​

• Actual: –4 | Forecast: +1 | Previous: –4
Despite forecast optimism, the index remained in contraction — confirming sustained industrial weakness.

Real Reactions:
• EUR/USD rose ~30 pips post-release
• USD/CHF fell ~30 pips
• U.S. yields edged down ~3–4 bps
• Industrials underperformed on equity boards

Why It Mattered:
The failure to rebound fueled concerns about the health of U.S. manufacturing. The data reinforced the view that the Fed must tread carefully, weakening USD modestly.

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Market Note​

The July 17 calendar lines up potential volatility across all major sessions, but especially around 12:30 GMT, where three U.S. releases converge. Watch for correlated movement in USD, gold, U.S. indices, and cross-pairs like AUD/JPY. Risk sentiment will shift rapidly based on whether U.S. consumption and factory output show signs of revival or further strain.

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Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.