Currency Pairs Market Analysis

USDJPY: November 2023 Highs Revisited, Consolidation Ahead?


Solid ECN – The U.S. Dollar has reached the November 2023 high against the Japanese Yen, hitting the 151.9 mark for the second time this week. However, this time, a long wick candlestick pattern has emerged on the USDJPY 4-hour chart.

Additionally, the Awesome Oscillator shows a divergence in its bars, which could signal an imminent consolidation phase. This could drive the price down to the 150.2 mark, followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci support level, which the 50 EMA supports. These levels provide favorable entry points for retail traders looking to join the primary upward trend.

Conversely, the 151.8 hard resistance level must be breached for the uptrend to continue.​

Gold Prices Near Record Highs Amid Rate Cut Expectations


Solid ECN – On Monday, the price of gold remained steady around $2,175, nearing its record high of $2,185 set on March 20th. This stability comes amid increasing bets on the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates.

Recently, the Fed kept its forecast, expecting to lower rates three times in 2024, making gold more attractive. Moreover, investors now believe there's over a 70% likelihood that the Fed will cut rates in June, a jump from the 55% probability anticipated before their latest meeting.

This week, all eyes are on important U.S. inflation data and speeches from several Federal Reserve officials for further indications of future monetary policies. Additionally, ongoing conflicts in Russia and the Middle East support gold's status as a reliable safe-haven asset.​

Silver Prices Hold Steady as Investors Eye Fed Moves


Solid ECN—Silver prices have stabilized above $24.5 per ounce after hitting almost a one-year high on March 20th. This happens while investors wait for speeches from the Federal Reserve's officials and the key PCE inflation data this week. These events will help them predict if the U.S. will start easing its monetary policy soon. Before this, the U.S.'s main financial authority decided not to change its plan for three interest rate decreases in 2024.

This decision made silver and similar assets without yield more attractive. Since their last meeting, the likelihood of reducing interest rates in June has increased to about 70% from the previous 55%. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank was among the first big banks to begin reducing its European policies. Silver continues to be supported as a safeguard against global political tensions, mainly due to ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Recently, Russia has significantly attacked Ukraine's energy infrastructure.​

GBPUSD Drops, Awaiting Bank Decisions


Solid ECN – In late March, the British pound fell to just above $1.26, its weakest since February 19, and was on track to lose almost 1% over the quarter compared to the US dollar. This happened as investors paid careful attention to cautious words from bank officials. Fed Governor Waller mentioned that the latest inflation figures back the idea that the US Federal Reserve might not soon lower its short-term interest rate goal, though he didn't rule out cuts later in the year.

In Britain, Bank of England's Haskel stated that it's too soon to consider rate cuts, and his colleague Mann warned against expecting too many rate reductions this year. She suggested it's unlikely the UK would reduce rates before the US.

During its March session, the Bank of England kept its interest rates the same. Two members, who had earlier supported increasing rates, now preferred to wait, leading to a softer approach than many had predicted.​

AUDUSD's Technical Outlook: Pullback Opportunities in Sight


In today's market, the Australian dollar is losing value compared to the U.S. Dollar. The exchange rate fell below the 0.6503 support level, and it's currently trading around 0.6493 after a slight recovery from 0.6475.

Despite the bearish trend, the Awesome Oscillator indicates a divergence, suggesting we might soon enter a consolidation phase. This means the AUD/USD pair could temporarily rise, possibly retesting the 0.6503 level and then the 50 EMA, before continuing its downward trajectory.

Technically speaking, the AUD/USD is experiencing a bear market, but there's a chance for a short-term pullback because the Awesome Oscillator is showing divergence. The levels around 0.6503 and 0.6504 could offer good opportunities for those looking to enter the market with this bearish trend in mind.

However, should the pair close above and find stability over the Ichimoku cloud, it would challenge the current bearish outlook and potentially shift the market sentiment.​

How to Trade the NZD/USD Pullback: Insights from the Awesome Oscillator


The NZD/USD currency pair is in a bear market, trading below the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level. The ADX indicator signifies that the trend is strong on the daily chart as it nears the 40 level. However, the Awesome Oscillator indicates divergence, suggesting that the New Zealand dollar will likely experience a pullback to the 0.602 resistance area.

Technically speaking, the next bearish target could be the 78.2% Fibonacci level, but the decline may continue after a consolidation phase. Therefore, the 0.602 level can provide a decent entry point for joining the sellers in the NZD/USD market.

Navigating the Bear Market: Entry Points for EUR/USD Traders


Solid ECN – The U.S. Dollar is stabilizing below the 38.2% Fibonacci level against the European currency today, Monday, April 1st, 2024.

The divergence signaled by the Awesome Oscillator could indicate a potential consolidation phase on the horizon.

From a technical perspective, the primary trend for EUR/USD is bearish. The pair will likely regain some of its losses from last week by rising to the 50% Fibonacci level, which coincides with the EMA 50. This resistance level could provide a suitable entry point for retail traders looking to join the bear market.

Conversely, the bear market should be invalidated if the pair stabilizes above the Ichimoku Cloud.​

Oil Prices Peak Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting


Solid ECN – On Monday, WTI crude oil prices climbed to about $83.5 a barrel, reaching their highest point in five months. This surge comes as investors eagerly await the upcoming joint ministerial OPEC+ meeting this week. At this meeting, the group plans to examine the current state of the market and how well members are sticking to their production goals.

They are expected to decide to keep their current production levels the same. The Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak mentioned last Friday that Russian oil companies should focus more on reducing their oil production than their exports during the second quarter. This is part of Russia's efforts to align with OPEC+'s production targets.

In addition, the market is also paying close attention to how Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil facilities and the peace negotiations in Gaza might affect the oil supply.

On the demand side, there's some positive news: recent data revealed that China's manufacturing sector grew in March for the first time in six months, a development that could mean stronger demand for oil from the world's largest importer of crude oil.​

GBPUSD: New Trends and Bearish Targets Unveiled


Solid ECN — The GBPUSD traded within a narrow range last week. The ADX indicator, hovering above the 25 level, suggests a new trend is likely on the horizon. Since the U.S. Dollar broke through the 50% Fibonacci resistance level, it appears that the downtrend that began in early March is set to continue.

The next bearish target is expected to be the flag's lower band, followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci support level.

Please note that the bear market will be invalidated if the price rises above the Ichimoku Cloud. ​

Bitcoin Tests the Bullish Trendline for Next Moves


Bitcoin's price dipped to as low as $65,796 in today's trading session against the U.S. dollar. As of this writing, the pair is testing the ascending trendline highlighted in red. The technical indicators are not providing valuable information now, so we focus on price action analysis.

From a technical perspective, the trend remains bullish as long as the price stays above the red trendline. However, if bears push and maintain the BTC/USD price below this trendline, the dip could extend further, with the next bearish target potentially being the $68,000 resistance level.

USDCNH Bullish Trend Analysis: Key Levels to Watch


Solid ECN – The U.S. Dollar has been in an uptrend since mid-December 2023 against the Chinese Yuan. As of this writing, the USDCNH pair trades at about 7.26, slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci support level and the 7.23 higher low.

The technical indicators are bullish. The RSI hovers above the median line and the Awesome Oscillator bars are green and above the signal line.

From a technical standpoint, the pair is in a bull market, with 7.23 acting as support. Therefore, while the price holds above this level, the next bullish target could be the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level.

Conversely, if the USDCNH price dips below the 7.23 support, the decline is likely to extend to the lower band of the bullish flag, which is in conjunction with the Ichimoku Cloud. Please note that the trend remains bullish as long as the pair ranges above the cloud.​

USD/JPY Eyes Key 151.9 Resistance Level


The U.S. Dollar trades slightly lower than the 151.9 mark against the Japanese yen in today's trading session. The pair has been ranging below this area for two weeks now, and the trend hasn't developed any significant moves lately.

However, bullish traders are keen to see the pair break above the 151.9 ceiling, which could lead to the U.S. price experiencing another jump against the Japanese currency.

Therefore, from a technical standpoint, the primary trend is bullish while the pair hovers above the 23.6% Fibonacci support level. The uptrend will continue if the bulls break above the resistance level, the 151.9 mark.

Navigating Bitcoin's Consolidation Phase


Solid ECN – The Bitcoin price dipped below the $65,796 resistance level, which is beneath the ascending trendline and the Ichimoku Cloud. Concurrently, the RSI indicator entered the overbought area, and as a result, the BTCUSD pair is testing the previously broken trendline at the time of writing.

From a technical standpoint, the bullish market has paused, and we are entering a consolidation phase that is likely to extend to the $68,000 resistance area.​

Bearish Trend in AUD/USD: Key Indicators and Price Targets


Solid ECN – The momentum of the Australian dollar against the U.S. Dollar has paused in today's trading session. As of this writing, the AUD/USD pair is testing the EMA 50 at about 0.651, which coincides with the Ichimoku Cloud.

The 4-hour chart has formed a Doji candlestick pattern, which could be interpreted as a sign of a trend reversal or a halt to the current uptick in momentum.

From a technical standpoint, as long as the AUD/USD pair trades below the cloud, the primary trend remains bearish. In this scenario, the next target will likely be March's lowest price, the 0.647 mark. Please note that if the Standard Deviation indicator rises above the 0.002 level, the pace of the downtrend will escalate.

On the flip side, the bear market should be invalidated if the price of the Australian dollar closes and stabilizes above the 0.6538 resistance mark. In this case, the rise will likely extend and aim for the upper band of the flag. ​

AUDUSD Climbs Higher: A Look into the Bullish Trend


Solid ECN – Yesterday, the Australian dollar saw a significant rise against the U.S. dollar. This increase in value started when it surpassed the EMA 50 and reached 0.6524, marked by a large bullish candle. Following this, there were four more strong bullish candles, pushing the price beyond the Envelopes band, suggesting the market was in an overbought state. This was further supported by the RSI indicator moving above 70.

Today, the market is correcting itself slightly after reaching a high of 0.661 on Thursday. Currently, the AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.657, still above the 50% Fibonacci support level, and maintaining its position over the Ichimoku Cloud. Despite technical indicators showing a bearish trend, the overall outlook remains bullish as long as the price stays above the cloud and the EMA 50.

The AUD/USD price might climb further to challenge the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level at 0.6626, moving towards the top of the bullish channel shown in red on the 4-hour chart for AUD/USD.

However, if the price falls below the EMA 50 or the 38.2% Fibonacci support level at 0.5548, this would signal an end to the bullish trend.​

Pound Sterling's High Against Dollar & Future Trends


Solid ECN – Yesterday, the pound sterling reached its highest level against the U.S. Dollar for April, climbing to 1.268. When looking at the GBPUSD 4-hour chart, we see a candlestick with a long wick, peaking at 1.268. This peak is near the top edge of a falling flag pattern and is backed by the Ichimoku cloud and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

This area of strong resistance halted the pound's upward movement, leading to a rebound by the U.S. Dollar. Currently, the GBPUSD is trading around the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), at approximately 1.263.

From a technical perspective, the currency pair is in a downtrend. If the price remains below the 50 EMA, we might see this downward trend continue. In such a case, the next target for the bears might be April's lowest point, at 1.2539.

However, if the GBPUSD price can rise above the 38.2% Fibonacci level or the 1.268 mark, it would signal a potential shift away from the downtrend. This possibility seems less likely, as the technical indicators lean towards a continuation of the bear market.​

NZDUSD Pair Sees Bullish Break and Pullback


Solid ECN – In the latest update for the NZDUSD pair, buyers successfully breached the falling trend line, as observed in the 4-hour chart. Currently, the pair is undergoing a slight pullback, trading around 0.602. It is approaching the EMA 50 and retesting the trend line it crossed.

The signals from technical indicators are not consistent. While the RSI remains above 50, suggesting a bullish trend, the AO bars are red, and the currency pair has yet to position itself over the Ichimoku cloud firmly. This indicates that the recent price increase from 0.5938 is not very strong. Thus, investing in this pair warrants a careful approach.

From a technical analysis standpoint, the NZDUSD price is currently within a bullish trend, staying above both the EMA 50 and the 61.8% Fibonacci support level. If buyers can keep the price above these critical points, we might see continued growth, potentially aiming for the 50% Fibonacci resistance level at 0.6070.

Conversely, a drop below the 0.6 threshold, aligning with the 61.2% Fibonacci level, could signal the end of the current bullish trend.

EURUSD Market Update


Solid ECN – In Monday's trading session, the Euro trades at about 1.083 against the U.S. Dollar, which is slightly above the EMA 50 and the 38.2% Fibonacci support level. It seems the pair is trying to stabilize itself above the aforementioned level after pulling back from the 23.6% Fibonacci level in Friday's late trading session.

The technical indicators give mixed signals, but the Standard Deviation indicates low activity and sideways momentum in the EURUSD market. That said, with the RSI (Relative Strength Index) hovering above 50, the price of the EURUSD might grow higher to test the 50% Fibonacci level followed by the 1.088 strong resistance area.

However, entering the market with a bullish outlook is risky since the primary trend is bearish. Therefore, it is recommended to wait and monitor the price action closely near the key levels mentioned above and seek opportunities to join the bear market.

From a technical standpoint, if the price rises to the 1.088 resistance, it would offer a decent price to go short on the EURUSD pair if the 4-hour chart forms a bearish candlestick pattern.

On the other hand, if the Euro dips below the EMA 50, this could signal a continuation in the downtrend, and retail traders can adjust their strategies accordingly and join the primary trend, which is bearish.​

EURUSD Steady at $1.08 as ECB Meeting Nears, Rate Cut Hints Awaited


Solid ECN – The euro remained steady at about $1.08, with investors taking a careful stance as they awaited Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) announcement.

It's widely anticipated that ECB officials will keep interest rates at their current record highs for the sixth time in a row. The focus is now on how the statement is worded and what ECB President Lagarde might say in her press conference to hint at when the first interest rate decrease of the year could happen.

Recent documents from the ECB show that the officials are more confident about inflation moving towards their goal of 2%, which makes a strong argument for a reduction in interest rates. On the other hand, the US dollar kept getting support because the latest data showed the American job market is still doing well, indicating that the Federal Reserve might not hurry to lower interest rates soon.​

EURUSD Trends: A Shift Below Key Levels This Week


Solid ECN – In the 4-hour chart, the EURUSD currency pair trades under the descending trendline, shown in black. This position came about after the pair developed a bearish engulfing pattern right around the 61.8% Fibonacci support level, suggesting the possibility of a trend change. At the same time, the awesome oscillator gives off a divergence signal, matching what the candlestick pattern indicates.

The pair must end below the 50 EMA for the downtrend to press on. If this happens, we could see the price heading towards the 23.6% Fibonacci support level, marking it as the initial goal for this week.

However, should the EURUSD pair's price climb above the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level, the current bearish market analysis might no longer be applicable.​
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