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Currency Pairs Market Analysis

USD/CAD Faces Crucial 50% Fibonacci Test


Solid ECN – The USD/CAD trend reversed after the price neared the descending trendline, and as of writing, the pair is testing the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.362. The technical indicators signal a continuation. The Awesome Oscillator bar turned red in the current trading session, and the RSI value has dropped to 55 from 65.

From a technical standpoint, the primary trend is bearish. However, for the downtrend to resume, the price must close and stabilize below 1.366. If this scenario continues, the next target will likely be the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.361.

Conversely, if the bulls maintain their position above the immediate support at 1.366, the trend can reverse in the short term and target the 1.370 mark.​

Bearish Momentum in USD/CNH Currency Pair


Solid ECN – The USD/CNH currency pair is dipping from the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $7.257. The RSI indicator also demonstrates bearish momentum by turning downward, and the awesome oscillator bar has just turned green.

The immediate resistance that paused the robust bullish momentum is at $7.257. If the price remains below this ceiling, the Chinese Yuan will likely erase some recent losses against the U.S. Dollar. Additionally, the USD/CNH price could dip to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $7.237.

As mentioned above, bulls must push the price beyond the key resistance level for the uptrend to resume.​

Impact of Candlestick Patterns on Bitcoin Trends


Solid ECN—The long wick candlestick pattern on the Bitcoin daily chart caused the price to dip from the $71,909 higher low.​

Bitcoin 1-Hour Chart


As of writing, the BTC/USD pair trades at about $68,000, close to the lower line of the bearish flag. This proximity might ease the current downtrend momentum and result in the price testing the broken support at $68,774. If the price stays below the broken support, Bitcoin will likely dip to $66,400.

The bulls must close and stabilize the price above the descending trendline for the uptrend to resume.​

Impact of Fibonacci Levels and EMA on Oil Prices


Solid ECN—WTI Crude Oil's downtrend has resulted in stabilizing below the 50% Fibonacci level at $77.5. The 50-day EMA is the primary resistance that separates a bear market from a bull market.

The Awesome Oscillator bars have turned red, signaling a continuation of the downtrend. Therefore, from a technical perspective, oil could decline to the next support level at $75.2.

However, the 50-day EMA challenges the bearish market, a barrier reinforced by the descending trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Should the price rise above the primary resistance, the bearish outlook will be invalidated accordingly.​

Silver Bullish Momentum Resumes Above Key Resistance Level


Solid ECN—The Silver price bounced from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $30. As of this writing, XAG/USD is trading at about $30.5, stabilizing momentum above EMA 50 and the Ichimoku cloud. The RSI (14) value is rising at 46, supporting the primary bullish trend.

From a technical standpoint, if XAG/USD remains above the primary resistance at $30, the uptrend will likely resume, with an initial target of $30.9.

Conversely, the downtrend at $32.5 could dip to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level if the U.S. Dollar pushes Silver prices below the immediate support at $30.​

Gold Falls Below $2,353: Bearish Momentum and Key Levels


Solid ECN—The XAG/USD fell below $2,353 in today's trading session. Currently, gold is trading around $2,338, retracing to test the former support level as new resistance. From a technical standpoint, the gold price dip was anticipated due to a clear divergence signal from the Awesome Oscillator. The bearish momentum has eased today due to Friday's lower trading volumes.

If XAG/USD stays below the immediate resistance at $2,353, the decline will likely extend to the EMA 50, followed by April's all-time low at $2,276.

Conversely, if bulls push the price above the immediate resistance, the uptrend is expected to resume, targeting $2,450.​

EURUSD's Bearish Flag and Potential Reversals


Solid ECN—The EURUSD currency pair trades in a bearish flag near the upper band. At the time of writing, the bears are keeping the price below the 50% Fibonacci level at $1.084. Interestingly, the 4-hour chart has formed an inverted hammer, suggesting that the downtrend may resume.

The technical indicators suggest a neutral market, with awesome oscillator bars small and clinging to the zero line and the RSI indicator moving sideways alongside the 50 line.

From a technical standpoint, the immediate support is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.086. If the exchange rate remains below this level, the downtrend that began in May is likely to extend with an initial target at the middle Bollinger band, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $1.082.

Conversely, if the bulls close and stabilize the price above the immediate support at 1.086, the bullish wave that began last week could target the 78.6% Fibonacci at 1.087, followed by the May all-time high at 1.089.​

GBP/USD Faces Resistance: Market Outlook

Solid ECN—The GBP/USD currency pair trades in an uptrend, facing the $1.276 immediate resistance. The Stochastic oscillator (14.3.3) suggests an overbought market. Therefore, the pound sterling might lose ground against the U.S. Dollar. The ascending trendline supports the current bullish wave, while the Awesome Oscillator indicates a divergence.

However, the trend hasn't reversed, and it seems the divergence signal refers to a consolidation phase. The market is still overbought, and we do not suggest going long in this market situation.

From a technical standpoint, the uptrend will likely escalate if the bulls cross above the immediate resistance at 1.276. If this scenario occurs, the road to the next significant support at $1.289 can be paved.

On the other hand, if the bears cross below the ascending trendline (in red), the price could dip to the key support at $1.263. This level provides a decent bid for bullish traders to reevaluate the market. Therefore, it is recommended that traders wait for the GBP/USD to either break out or dip to the key support before joining the market, either as a bull or as a bear.​

Will AUD/USD Break Out? Key Levels to Watch


Solid ECN —AUD/USD resumed its uptrend after hitting the ascending trendline at $0.659. As of writing, the pair is trading inside the symmetrical triangle, testing the upper line at $0.664.

The technical indicators suggest a resumption of the uptrend. Therefore, if the bulls manage to close and stabilize the price above the immediate resistance at $0.664, the next bullish target could be $0.668.

On the flip side, if the price remains inside the wedge pattern, it will likely float sideways to the apex, targeting the ascending trendline again.​

USD/CAD Breaks Below Key Fibonacci Levels


Solid ECN—USD/CAD broke below the 61.8% Fibonacci level today, and as of writing, the pair trades at approximately 1.363 CAD. The current bearish momentum will likely target the 78.6% Fibonacci level at 1.362 CAD.

Bullish traders should wait for signs of a reversal or consolidation phase at the 78.6% Fibonacci level. If the selling pressure exceeds this level, the next bearish target will be the May low of 1.358 CAD.​

EUR/USD Analysis: Bullish Flag Pattern Insights


Solid ECN—The EUR/USD currency pair trades in a bullish flag pattern, stabilizing above the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $1.08. The technical indicators are bullish. The RSI (14) value at 65 indicates some room left before becoming oversold, suggesting that the bullish momentum will likely continue.

From a technical standpoint, the uptrend is expected to persist as long as the EUR/USD trades above the ascending trendline and the 61.7% Fibonacci level at $1.086. In this scenario, the next target will be $1.089.

Conversely, if the price dips below $1.086, the 50% Fibonacci level at $1.084 will be the next support. If the price falls below $1.084, the bullish outlook should be invalidated, and the trend would likely shift from a bull market to a bear market.​

ASX 200 Takes a Hit as Retail Sales Disappoint

The S&P/ASX 200 Index dipped by 0.28%, ending at 7,767 points on Tuesday, reversing some of the previous day's gains. This decrease was mainly due to losses in major financial companies, which overshadowed advances in the mining and energy sectors. Furthermore, investors responded cautiously to news that Australian retail sales in April grew less than anticipated, indicating restrained consumer spending.

As a result, market participants are eagerly awaiting Wednesday's domestic inflation data, which could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy decisions. Key financial players such as Westpac Banking, Macquarie Group, and QBE Insurance saw declines.

Other significant stocks, such as Wesfarmers, Sonic Healthcare, and Transurban Group, also experienced drops. In corporate developments, Boss Energy's shares plummeted 11.1% after it was revealed that CEO Duncan Craib sold many of his holdings last week.​

Norwegian Household Spending Rebounds in April

In April 2024, households in Norway increased their spending on goods by 4.1%, a significant improvement from the 2.8% decline seen in the previous month. This was the highest increase in spending since December 2022. Notably, expenditures on food, beverages, and tobacco rose by 2.6%, recovering from a 1.4% drop in March.

Spending on electricity and heating fuels also increased by 1.6%, after a sharp 4.8% fall the month before. Additionally, there was a dramatic surge in vehicle and petrol purchases, which increased by 22.8%, following a 15.9% decrease in March. However, the growth in spending on other goods slowed slightly to 0.3% from 1%.​
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