Daily forex market analysis - CSFX

[CSFX.Market]

US Dollar Weakens on Inflation and Debt Worries.​

EUR/USD continues to build on recent gains, trading above 1.1250 in early London trading. US Dollar softness, driven by Moody’s credit downgrade, cooling inflation, and uncertainties surrounding US tariffs, is lending support to the pair.

With no major US data scheduled during the New York session, market focus for American traders shifts to Fed speakers and the potential for more dovish commentary. Meanwhile, UK-based traders await Wednesday’s UK CPI release, which could influence EUR/GBP sentiment and cross-hedging activity.

Exponential

• MA 10: 1.1230 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 1.1235 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 50: 1.1107 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

Simple

• MA 10: 1.1211 | Positive Crossover | Bullish
• MA 20: 1.1279 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• MA 50: 1.1121 | Positive Crossover | Bullish

• RSI: 54.28 | Buy Zone | Bullish
• Stochastic: 49.14 | Buy Zone | Neutral

• Resistance: R1: 1.1529 | R2: 1.1717
• Support: S1: 1.0922 | S2: 1.0734

Limit Buy: 1.1189 | Take Profit: 1.1375 | Stop Loss: 1.1081

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[CSFX.Market]

Dollar in Freefall: Euro, Pound, and Aussie Surge as Fed Dovish Tilt Sparks Forex Shake-Up.​

The euro gained further traction against the US Dollar during the UK and early US trading hours, with EUR/USD approaching the 1.1350 mark. The pair is finding support from persistent USD softness linked to trade tensions and deteriorating US fiscal credibility.

Traders in both the London and New York markets are now eyeing upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve and European Central Bank officials for clarity on monetary policy direction. The divergence remains a key driver:

• ECB recently cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%.
• Fed remains on hold but is expected to cut rates twice before year-end due to cooling inflation and slower growth.

The market’s muted reaction to the US-China trade truce reflects skepticism, especially since the agreement lacks enforceable mechanisms and still retains a 20% tariff on fentanyl-linked imports. This undermines optimism and reduces confidence in the Greenback’s rebound.

Exponential MA

• MA 10: 1.1248 – Bullish
• MA 20: 1.1244 – Bullish
• MA 50: 1.1116 – Bullish

Simple MA

• MA 10: 1.1213 – Bullish
• MA 20: 1.1279 – Bullish
• MA 50: 1.1130 – Bullish

• RSI: 57.23 – In buy zone
• Stochastic Oscillator: 68.04 – Neutral to bullish

• R1: 1.1529 | R2: 1.1717
• S1: 1.0922 | S2: 1.0734

Overall Sentiment: Bullish
Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion

• Entry: Limit Buy at 1.1263
• Take Profit: 1.1425
• Stop Loss: 1.1168

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GBP/USD: Sterling Soars to 3-Year High on Hotter UK Inflation​

FULL FOREX UPDATE - CAPITAL STREET FX​

 

[CSFX.Market]

Dollar in Freefall: Euro, Pound, and Aussie Surge as Fed Dovish Tilt Sparks Forex Shake-Up.​

The euro gained further traction against the US Dollar during the UK and early US trading hours, with EUR/USD approaching the 1.1350 mark. The pair is finding support from persistent USD softness linked to trade tensions and deteriorating US fiscal credibility.

Traders in both the London and New York markets are now eyeing upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve and European Central Bank officials for clarity on monetary policy direction. The divergence remains a key driver:

• ECB recently cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%.
• Fed remains on hold but is expected to cut rates twice before year-end due to cooling inflation and slower growth.

The market’s muted reaction to the US-China trade truce reflects skepticism, especially since the agreement lacks enforceable mechanisms and still retains a 20% tariff on fentanyl-linked imports. This undermines optimism and reduces confidence in the Greenback’s rebound.

Exponential MA

• MA 10: 1.1248 – Bullish
• MA 20: 1.1244 – Bullish
• MA 50: 1.1116 – Bullish

Simple MA

• MA 10: 1.1213 – Bullish
• MA 20: 1.1279 – Bullish
• MA 50: 1.1130 – Bullish

• RSI: 57.23 – In buy zone
• Stochastic Oscillator: 68.04 – Neutral to bullish

• R1: 1.1529 | R2: 1.1717
• S1: 1.0922 | S2: 1.0734

Overall Sentiment: Bullish
Market Direction: Buy

Trade Suggestion

• Entry: Limit Buy at 1.1263
• Take Profit: 1.1425
• Stop Loss: 1.1168

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FULL FOREX UPDATE - CAPITAL STREET FX​

 

[CSFX.Market]

Dollar Weakens, EUR/USD and GBP/USD Surge Ahead of GDP and Retail Sales.​

Major currency pairs are showing notable price action during Friday’s Asian session, driven by weakening US Dollar sentiment, evolving central bank outlooks, and critical economic indicators. For traders in the UK and USA, attention now turns to Germany’s Q1 GDP and the UK’s Retail Sales data, both due during the local morning and early trading hours. With volatility expected, the USD’s trajectory will also hinge on upcoming US housing data later in the New York session.

EUR/USD is trading near 1.1310 during early Friday hours in Europe, recovering from Thursday’s 0.5% loss amid a broad USD retreat. The US Dollar is under pressure as Treasury yields decline; notably, the 30-year bond yield has fallen from a 19-month high of 5.15%.

Local traders in the UK and USA should monitor Germany’s Q1 GDP report, which is scheduled for 11:30 BST (06:30 EDT). This data is crucial for Eurozone outlook and may shape EUR/USD momentum into the European and US trading sessions.

Technical Overview

​

Key factors driving EUR/USD today:

• Weakening USD amid lower US Treasury yields.
• Political risk: President Trump’s fiscal bill, expected to widen the US deficit, weighs on sentiment.
• Eurozone flash PMIs show mixed performance, with German Services PMI dropping to 47.2.
• US PMI data surprised to the upside, with all key components above 52.

• Exponential MAs:
• MA 10: 1.1266 – Bullish
• MA 20: 1.1254 – Bullish
• MA 50: 1.1130 – Bullish
• Simple MAs:
• MA 10: 1.1225 – Bullish
• MA 20: 1.1272 – Bullish
• MA 50: 1.1147 – Bullish

• RSI: 56.02 – Buy Zone
• Stochastic Oscillator: 76.87 – Neutral

• Resistance: R1 – 1.1529 | R2 – 1.1717
• Support: S1 – 1.0922 | S2 – 1.0734

Market Sentiment: Bullish
Trade Direction: Buy
Trade Suggestion:

• Entry: 1.1262
• Take Profit: 1.1384
• Stop Loss: 1.1202

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