Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

[FXOpen Trader]

NZD/USD: Inflation Surge Meets Strong US Dollar Pressure

On 21 July, Stats NZ reported an acceleration in inflation: the Consumer Price Index rose 1.5% in the second quarter, while the annual inflation rate climbed to 4.1%, its highest level in more than two years and slightly above analysts' consensus forecast of 4.0%. The increase was driven primarily by higher fuel prices amid tensions in the Middle East. The data was released after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the official cash rate to 2.50% on 8 July, reinforcing expectations of further monetary tightening in September. However, the impact proved short-lived, as escalating tensions between the US and Iran boosted demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, causing the New Zealand dollar to surrender part of its recent gains during the second half of the week.

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US Dollar Index: A Defining Week for the King of the Markets

The dollar heads into a pivotal week trading near 101.80, just off a 15-month high, with the Fed's July 29 meeting standing as the clear focal point. Markets currently price roughly a 65% chance of a hold, though renewed Middle East escalation has kept a hike back on the table for later this year. Energy remains the wildcard: the collapse of the Iran ceasefire and blockades affecting Persian Gulf shipping lanes have pushed oil higher, reigniting inflation concerns that could complicate the Fed's messaging.

Adding to the uncertainty, private-sector hiring has slowed for a fourth straight week according to ADP data, even as jobless claims fell to a two-month low, painting a genuinely mixed labor picture. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Congressional testimony offered little directional clarity, reaffirming a commitment to price stability without tipping the committee's hand.

With the ECB decision now behind markets and flash PMI data already digested, all eyes turn to Wednesday's Fed decision as the week's true catalyst, one capable of resolving—or extending—the dollar's recent indecision.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

WTI Analysis: Gap Breaks Short-Term Trend as Price Remains Trapped Between the POC and Profile Boundary

WTI crude oil plunged by more than 7% on 27 July 2026 after the US suspended a series of strikes against Iran over the weekend, raising hopes of a diplomatic solution and the reopening of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, according to CNBC. Brent crude also fell below $90 per barrel. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that Yemen's Houthi movement had claimed attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu, suggesting that the conflict remains far from resolved.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Amazon Earnings: Does the Chart Already Know Something the Numbers Don't?

All eyes are on July 30, when Amazon reports Q2 2026 earnings, with Wall Street increasingly convinced the bar has been set too low. Consensus sees EPS near $1.82-$2.26 on roughly $197 billion in revenue, but the real story is AWS: after posting its fastest growth in 15 quarters at 28% in Q1, several major banks—including Bank of America—now expect acceleration toward 32-33%, fueled by surging AI demand and Bedrock workloads tied to Anthropic and OpenAI.

That optimism comes with a catch. Amazon's $200 billion AI capex plan has already squeezed free cash flow to just $1.2 billion, and investors will be watching closely for any further guidance hike, following similar moves from Alphabet. Options markets are pricing a 6.3% swing on earnings day, above the stock's typical 5.4% post-earnings move, signaling traders expect this report to matter more than usual.

With shares up roughly 18% year-to-date and trading at a below-average forward multiple, the setup favors strength—but only if AWS growth and margin guidance clear an already demanding bar.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.