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Forex Forum EUR, USD, JPY, GBP, CAD, AUD, CHF, XAU Market Analysis and Daily Forecast

somrat4030

Well-known member

June-06, 2022, Daily Currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


Daily currency trading analysis june-06, 2022

The EUR/GBP slashes Friday’s gains on Monday and aims towards the 0.8500 mark after reaching a daily high near 0.8590s, though retracing on a buoyant market mood as global equities record gains. At the time of writing, the EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8530, losing 0.47%.

EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The EUR/GBP remains upward biased, despite Monday’s retracement. However, the cross-currency would face solid resistance at around 0.8600, a level last traded on May 12, which sparked a correction towards highs of 0.8390s, before resuming the uptrend towards 0.8590s. EUR/GBP traders need to be aware that volatility shrank, and the EUR/GBP formed a bullish flag, which would open the door for further gains. Nevertheless, the cross would consolidate in the 0.8500-0.8600 area before aiming toward fresh YTD highs above 0.8700.

EUR/USD

On the other hand, In the major of EUR/USD, the pair still holds some bullish potential, largely rooted from last week’s bounce of support at prior resistance. This is taken from a zone running from 1.0593-1.0638 and that area caught a bounce on Wednesday that held into the end of the week. That bounce found lower-high resistance in the same zone that caught the prior high, plotted from around 1.0767-1.0787.

While this could carry some bullish potential, there may be more amenable areas for that elsewhere which I’ll look at after our next chart. But, on this setup, the area of focus is that support zone running from 1.0593-1.0638. If sellers can punch through that, then the door re-opens for bearish scenarios in the pair, looking for a return to the 1.0500 psychological level.

US Dollar​


The dollar advanced modestly on Monday as a boost in risk appetite sent U.S. equities higher and kept gains on the safe haven in check ahead of a key reading on inflation later in the week.

After touching a near twenty-year high of 105.01 on May 13, the dollar has eased back to around the 102 level, although Friday's strong payrolls report helped the dollar notch its first weekly gain in three.

The dollar index rose 0.098% at 102.190, with the euro down 0.12% to $1.0706 ahead of a European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting later this week.

The Japanese yen weakened 0.35% versus the greenback at 131.32 per dollar, while Sterling was last trading at $1.2547, up 0.47% on the day.

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GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair broke resistance at 1.2491 which turned into strong support yesterday. This level coincides with 23.6% of Fibonacci retracement which is expected to act as major support today.

Equally important, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward, while the moving average (100) is headed to the upside. Accordingly, the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the EMA 100 is pointing to the uptrend.

This suggests that the pair will probably go above the daily pivot point (1.2524) in the coming hours. The GBP/USD pair will demonstrate strength following a breakout of the high at 1.2524.


USD/CAD​


Elsewhere, USDCAD is wanting again towards unchanged on the day

The USDCAD has transfer again towards unchanged on the day. The value on Friday closed at 1.25854. The excessive worth simply reached 1.25848. The present worth is buying and selling at 1.25765.

The pair initially moved to the draw back, however discovered help close to an previous trendline after reaching a brand new low going again to April 21. The North American session has seen a bounce to the upside of the final 3-4 hours. The excessive worth for the day was within the Asian session at a pleasant spherical variety of 1.2600.

Getting again into constructive territory for the day and above the 1.2600 stage would have merchants wanting towards the falling 100 hour shifting common 1.26104. Recall from final Thursday, the value moved as much as check that shifting common line solely to search out sellers close to the extent and a rotation again to the draw back. Because of this, the shifting common’s significance has elevated. Getting above it could be a step within the bullish path.

NZD/USD

The NZDUSD is trading lower on the day after a run higher stalled.

The move back to the downside saw the pair fall back below the 100/200 hour MAs at 0.6511 and 0.6515. The breaking back below has also seen momentum below a rising trend line at 0.6499 and a swing area down to 0.64908.

The current price is at 0.6488. Close risk is around 0.6500. For traders who want to give more room, staying below the 200 and 100 hour MAs would be the risk. Stay below is more bearish. Move above is more bullish.

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somrat4030

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June-7, 2022, Daily currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


Daily Trading analysis, june-07, 2022

The EUR/USD instrument fell by 40 basis points on Tuesday. The news background of today was simply absent, so the market moved the instrument only based on wave markup. And the wave marking is now almost unambiguous - it assumes a further decrease in the instrument by another 50-100 basis points. Already on Wednesday and Thursday, the news background for the instrument will be much stronger, but this does not mean that demand for the European currency will begin to grow again.

American inflation may cause a decline in the European currency and the construction of the corrective wave b will be completed. And on Thursday, the ECB should announce the completion of the APP program or its readiness to raise the interest rate at the next meetings, then the demand for the European currency will already grow. Thus, the wave analysis and the news background still look very harmonious with each other.

GBP/USD

On the other hand, The British pound climbs for the second straight day amidst two days of a volatile trading session, courtesy of political issues, mainly the Boris Johnson no-confidence vote on Monday. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.2593, gaining 0.54%.

So far, the GBP/USD remains buoyant, courtesy of Boris Johnson’s victory, although by a tight margin, spurred a brief relief rally on the pound. Also, falling US Treasury yields narrow the spread between the 10-year US and UK bond yields. However, the sentiment shifted negative, as European bourses closed with losses, while US equities showed some weakness, except for the Russell 2000, up by 0.53%.

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index, a gauge of the buck’s value vs. six peers, records minimal losses of 0.01%, sitting at 102.401, a tailwind for the GBP/USD.

JPY/USD​


Japanese Yen weakness has come back to markets in a very big way over the past week. This was one of the most prominent trends in early-2022 trade as markets geared up for rate hikes from pretty much everywhere other than Japan.

While the US was seeing surging inflation and there were signs that the theme was starting to show elsewhere, in Europe, the U.K., and Australia, Japan didn’t have that same problem and this allowed for the BoJ to keep rates low and policy loose as trading counterparts were forced to adjust. This led to a blistering trend in USD/JPY as the pair jumped up to fresh 20-year highs; but after USD/JPY hit the 130.00 psychological level, matters began to slow, and the spot of 131.25 specifically was the area that twice caught the high in the pair, in April and May before prices posed a turn-around.

But, that turn-around was brief as USD/JPY cauterized support around the 127.00 level in late-May before Yen-sellers showed up again around last week’s open.

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Russian Ruble​


The Russian rouble gave up gains to weaken on Tuesday, edging away from 61 to the dollar as the finance ministry slightly eased capital controls and investor focus turned to an expected central bank rate cut later in the week.

The finance ministry said export-focused companies were now allowed to transfer foreign currency to their overseas accounts under certain conditions, a move aimed at helping to pay for imports and prevent the rouble from strengthening.

By 1503 GMT, the rouble was 0.2% weaker against the dollar at 61.15, giving up intra-day gains of more than 1%. It has stabilised in the relatively narrow range of 60.0-62.5 in the past few days after rapid swings in May.

The rouble lost 0.5% to trade at 65.40 against the euro.

USD/CHF

The USDCHF moved higher into the US session and in the process moved above the 38.2% of the last trend move lower that saw the pair moved from 1.0063 to 0.95442 (on May 27).

Since that bottom, the price consolidated in a narrow range between 0.9544 and 0.9669 and traded above and below the 100/200 hour MAs. The price moved above those converged MAs on Friday, corrected to the same MAs yesterday, before racing outside the "red box" (and the 0.9669 level).

Today, the pair based near a higher swing area between 0.96948 and 0.9711 before moving to a high at 0.97782. That move took the price above the 38.2% retracement at 0.97426, and another swing area between 0.97488 and 0.97636.

USD/CAD

The USD/CAD holds a bearish intraday bias and is looking at the June low at 1.2534. A break lower could trigger more losses to the 1.2500 area. Below the next level is 1.2465, with a daily close below suggesting more losses ahead.

On the upside, 1.2575 is again a resistance level to consider, followed by the 1.2610/15 area. While under 1.2615, the pair will hold a bearish/neutral outlook in the short term. Above 1.2615, the dollar could recover further toward 1.2680.

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somrat4030

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June-08, 2022, Daily currency trading latest analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


Currency market forecast, june-08, 2022

EUR/USD has oscillated around the 1.07 level since the start of the month. A disappointing European Central Bank (ECB) decision at its meeting on Thursday could pave the way for a fall below 1.06 during the week ahead, economists at Scotiabank report.

EUR/USD’s recovery picks up extra pace and challenges the 1.0750 region on Wednesday.

If the rebound surpasses the 4-month resistance line near 1.0750, the downside pressure is expected to lose traction and allow for the continuation of the move to the may high at 1.0786 (May 30). Up from here comes the weekly high at 1.0936 (April 21), an area reinforced by the 100-day SMA.

In the longer run, the pair’s bearish view is expected to prevail as long as it trades below the 200-day SMA at 1.1215.

AUD/USD​


On the other hand, The Australian Dollar is virtually unchanged against the US Dollar this week with AUD/USD coiling just below the yearly open. The focus now shifts to a breakout of the June opening-range for guidance as Aussie tests broader downtrend resistance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD technical price charts into the close of the week.

Technical Outlook:

The Australian Dollar turned just pips ahead of the 2016 low last month at 6827 with Aussie rallying more than 6.6% over the past four-weeks. The advance stalled in to key resistance last week and the focus remains on reaction into the 7254/70 zone for guidance- a region defined by the 200-day moving average, the 2022 yearly open and the 52-week moving average. Just higher rests the March high-day reversal close / 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 7314/43- both levels of interest for near-term topside exhaustion IF reached.

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GBP/USD

Moreover, The price of the currency pair sterling against the dollar rebounded GBP/USD from the support 1.2430 all the way to the resistance 1.2600 and is trying to stabilize above it during trading today, Wednesday. Yesterday the dollar was broadly bought, resulting in gains on almost all major currencies, although this trend was reversed somewhat after the Census Bureau released its trade balance estimate for April.

According to the technical analysis of the pair:

The failure of the current bounce of the GBP/USD currency pair may support the formation of the head and shoulders formation on the daily chart below. This may bring an opportunity for the bears to shoot down if the currency pair fails to gain momentum to rebound higher. To turn to the upside, it is necessary to move towards the resistance levels 1.2785 and 1.3000, respectively.

USD/CAD​


The USDCAD has moved to a new session low and in the process has made a new low for the 10th consecutive day. Yesterday the low came in at 1.25228. The low price just reached 1.25166. Over those 10 days, the price has been down 8 of the 10 days at the close.

Looking at the hourly chart above, the move to the downside has seen the price stay below its 100 hour moving average for all but a handful of hourly bars.

The pair is also trading within a channel on the hourly chart above. The lower channel trendline doesn't come into play until around 1.2462 (and moving lower). That is near the swing low going back to April 21 at 1.24593. On the topside, the topside channel trendline cuts across above its 100 hour moving average at 1.2580 currently (and moving lower).

USD/JPY

USD/JPY extended on its Asia Pacific/early European session gains in the lead up to the US open, printing fresh multi-decade highs just below 134.50 in the process. Analysts have been citing the BoJ’s persistently dovish stance relative to its increasingly hawkish G10 peers, with the ECB the latest major bank to shift in recent weeks towards signaling a series of rate hikes, as weighing on the yen on Wednesday, as well as upside in global yields.

The BoJ’s policy of capping 10-year Japanese yields at no more than 25 bps above zero means that the yen is sensitive to rate differentials, hence, Wednesday’s bounce in US 10-year yields back above 3.0% is lifting USD/JPY. However, since the US open, the pair has fallen back slightly to just above the 134 level, where it continues to hold onto gains of around 1.2% on the day.

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somrat4030

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June-09, 2022, Daily currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


Daily currency trading analysis, june-09, 2022

The British pound is sliding for the second consecutive day, after reaching a daily high near 1.2560, retreated and eyes for a re-test of the 1.2500 figure. At 1.2509, the GBP/USD falls courtesy of a dismal market mood, influenced by the ECB, which is preparing to lift off rates, although it would be done “gradually,” as ECB’s President Mrs. Lagarde acknowledged.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The GBP/USD daily chart depicts the pair remains downward pressured, though consolidating in a wide 1.2450-1.2600 range. The daily moving averages (DMAs) stay above the exchange rate and accelerate downwards. It’s worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI), pushed to positive territory, though of late, is back below the 50 mid-line, which exacerbated the GBP/USD fall in the last two days.

Hence, the GBP/USD bias favors sellers. The GBP/USD first support would be the 1.2500 figure. A breach of the latter will send the pair towards challenging the June 7 swing low at 1.2430. Once cleared, the next demand level would be May 17, 1.2313 daily low, followed by the YTD Low at 1.2155.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY retreats from 2-decade highs around 134.55 but is trimming substantial losses, and albeit losing 0.09%, is preparing for a test of the 135.00 figure. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 134.20, a signal that traders are booking profits ahead of the release of US inflation data on Friday.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/JPY monthly chart depicts the pair as upward biased, but RSI readings at 83 suggest the major might be about to peak soon. However, a rally towards 2002’s yearly high at 135.16 is on the cards. If the USD/JPY clears that hurdle, then a move towards the August 1998 high at 147.67 is on the cards.

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US DOLLAR​


The US Dollar has been taking a pause in the bullish trend since hitting a fresh high at 105 on DXY in mid-May. That 105 level is a psychological level and after coming into play, it led to a 23.6% pullback of the US Dollar’s recent bullish trend, with a point of support coming into play at the Fibonacci retracement plotted at 101.35.

That low printed last Monday and since then, buyers have been slowly getting back into the matter, pushing a bullish move up to another Fibonacci level at 102.78.

Russian rouble

The Russian rouble slid off a two-week high on Thursday after President Vladimir Putin signed a decree that the market interpreted as a potential means for export-focused companies to scale down conversion of foreign currency.

Exporters will now need to convert forex into roubles in an amount set by a government commission, the decree said, without providing details.

The move was seen as paving the way to an imminent easing of capital controls that had obliged exporters to convert 80% of their revenues into roubles after Russia sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24. This ratio was later lowered to 50% in May.

By 1342 GMT, the rouble was 0.3% weaker against the dollar at 59.60 , earlier clipping its strongest point since May 25 of 57.4075.

It was still 0.3% stronger on the day at 63.33 versus the euro after touching a two-week high of 61.20.

USD/CAD

The run to the upside in the USDCAD has now moved through the next key upside target. That target included the 200 day moving average at 1.2659, and the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the May 25 high at 1.26571. Getting above those levels increase the bullish bias. They also represent close risk intraday for the pair.

Recall from last week, the price trade above and below the 200 day moving average on May 30, May 31, June 1, and June 2 before breaking to the downside. The high price during that consolidation took the price up to 1.2686.

EUR/USD​


Sentiment worsened during the US session on Thursday, sending down stocks; however, traders paid most attention to today's ECB verdict, influencing the EURUSD pair.

On the other hand, the European Central Bank has lowered its growth prediction for 2022 to 2.8% from 3.7%, and for 2023 to 2.1% from 2.8%. In addition, it has been revised to 2.1% from 1.6% for 2024.

Overall, the markets did not like today's event - a smaller than anticipated rate hike in July, rising inflation expectations along with lowering growth forecasts sent the EURUSD back into the downward channel as it traded 0.7% weaker on the day hovering near 1.0640.

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somrat4030

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June-10, 2022, Daily latest currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


The USD/JPY hit levels not seen since 2002 and then pulled back only modestly. Analysts at MUFG Bank point out that the USD/JPY move higher may slow down on an increased risk of intervention to curb yen’s weakness. They see short-term risks in USD/JPY to the upside.

“The risks over the short-term is for USD/JPY to drift further higher. The CPI data and the Fed meeting next week will provide support for US yields, underlining the lack of change to the policy divergence driver, especially given Governor Kuroda’s speech this week. The threat of intervention is certainly now much higher following the statement today expressing concern, which may result in increased reluctance for speculative yen selling and result in non-dollar yen strength in circumstances of broader US dollar strength into the FOMC and BoJ meetings next week.”

EUR/USD

Yesterday’s European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision and press conference (although more hawkish) sent the euro tumbling post-announcement. Leading up to the announcement, markets were pricing in a more aggressive stance but the ECB quelled these projections by opening up the potential for a 50bps rate hike in September and not July as many expected. In addition, growth forecasts were revised lower thus weighing on euro upside despite the possibility of the aforementioned 50bps jump. GDP growth revisions read as follows:

2.8% in 2022, 2.1% in 2023, and 2.1% in 2024

Technical outlook

Trendline resistance on the daily EUR/USD chart has held once again emphasizing its importance since early February 2022. Price action is skewed to the downside and I would not be surprised if we see bears break below 1.0600 towards the 1.0500 psychological zone.

Resistance levels:

1.0800
Trendline resistance (black)
50-day EMA (blue)
20-day EMA (purple)

Support levels:

1.0600
1.0500

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NZD/USD

The NZDUSD rallied in the Asian session, and moved back up toward a topside trend line.

Recall from yesterday, the price did move briefly above that trend line but quickly reversed to the downside. That move to the downside extended to a swing area between 0.63749 and 0.63792 toward the end of trading yesterday and into the earlier Asian session. Buyers lean against that level pushing the price toward the aforementioned topside trend line.

The low price briefly move below the 61.8% retracement at 0.6353. That came near a swing area between 0.63447 and 0.63479 and the lower channel trendline at 0.6336 currently (and moving lower).

XAG/USD

Silver (XAG/USD) advances after seesawing earlier in the day, reaching a three-week low at $21.27, but staged a recovery after the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment slumped the most in 5 decades. At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading at $21.82, erasing earlier losses and now gaining 0.57%.

In the meantime, the US Dollar is rallying to fresh three-week highs, at 104.174, gaining 1.96%. At the same time, the US 10-year Treasury yield is rallying to new four-week highs at 3.14%, up by twenty basis points.

US consumer sentiment plunges, and US inflation rose to 4-decades highs
US consumer sentiment plummeted the most in 5-decades, following an inflation report that in the previous two months before May reading fell though rebounded to 8.6% YoY.

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somrat4030

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June-13, 2022, Daily currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


Currency trading analysis, june-13, 2022

The safe-haven dollar rose to a fresh four-week high against a basket of currencies on Monday, supported by fears of a global economic slowdown and bets on steep interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Global financial markets continued to smart from Friday's hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data that led to a broad-based drop in risk sentiment and fueled bets on even more aggressive policy tightening.

The U.S. Dollar Currency Index, which tracks the greenback against six other major currencies, was up 0.4% at 104.83, within sight of the 2-decade high of 105.01 touched in mid May.

USD/JPY

On the other hand, The USD/JPY plunges close to 200 pips after breaking above the 135.15 January 2002 high, as speculations of Japanese authorities’ intervention in the FX market emerged last Friday. At 134.18, the USD/JPY retreated from daily highs at around 135.19, despìte US Treasury yields extending their gains towards multi-year highs.

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index, a gauge of the buck’s value against its peers, is advancing 0.64% at 104.857 after reaching a 20-year high at around 105.065.

Central bank divergence between the Fed and the BoJ’s had been the main drivers of the USD/JPY in the year. Also, the positive correlation of the pair with the US 10-year Treasury yield triggered a USD/JPY rally, from 116.00 to 135.00.

EUR/USD​


Elsewhere, EUR/USD sank on Monday, falling as much as 0.9% to 1.0420 at its worst point, hitting its lowest level in more than a month, pressured by broad-based U.S. dollar strength and risk-off sentiment. During the session, the DXY index briefly surged above the 105.00 mark, touching its highest level in more than 20 years, bolstered by soaring U.S. Treasury yields. Stocks also plummeted amid hawkish repricing of Fed rate hike expectations, with the S&P 500 dropping more than 3% and entering bear market territory, a move that reinforced safe haven demand.

EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EUR/USD deepened losses at the start of the week, breaking below a key area of support near 1.0500, a bearish signal for price action. If the pair closes below this level decisively, we could see a move towards the 2022 lows at 1.0349 in the coming days. On further weakness, the focus shifts lower to exchange rate parity.

On the other hand, if dip buyers return and manage to spark a bullish reversal, initial resistance appears at 1.0500. If prices climb above this barrier, upside pressure could pick up pace, pushing EUR/USD towards the next ceiling around 1.0650.

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GBP/USD

The GBPUSD is down for the 4th consecutive day, and in the process, the pair has moved to test the swing low from May 13 (and low for the year) at 1.21543.

The low price for the day has reach 1.2160 so far.

Drilling to the hourly chart, the price action today initially found Asian session support near 1.2260. That level was the swing low going back to May 9. The subsequent bounce saw the price reenter a swing area between 1.2288 to 1.2302. The high price on a corrective move stalled right at the 1.2300 natural resistance level (the high reached 1.22998) and just below the high of the swing area. The price has been trending to the downside since that successful test.

XAU/USD​


Gold spot (XAU/USD) slides to a new monthly low near the $1820 figure on Monday, as US Treasury yields skyrocket, propelled by Friday’s hotter than expected US inflation numbers, ahead of the US Federal Reserve June meeting, in which investors have priced in a 50 bps increase. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading at $1826.60, down near 2.20%.

In the meantime, Gold remains trading heavy after reaching a daily high near $1880, weighed by higher US Treasury yields. The 10-year benchmark note rate jumped to multiyear-highs, to levels last seen in 2011, at around the 3.314% threshold, up by 15 bps.

AUD/USD

Elsewhere, AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6828 should have completed at 0.7282 already. Intraday bias is now back on the downside for 0.6828 support first. Firm break there will resume larger fall from 0.8006 to 0.6756/60 cluster support. On the upside, above 0.7137 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7282 instead.

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somrat4030

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June-14, 2022, Daily forex trading analysis and currency exchange forecast, by forex forum.​


Currency trading analysis, june-14, 2022

The EUR/USD continue to pull back after the beginning of the American session and it is hovering around 1.0410, slight above Monday’s close. Earlier on Tuesday, the pair peaked at 1.0485 but then lost momentum as Wall Street turned to the downside and as US yields printed fresh highs.

After a positive opening, the Dow Jones is falling by 0.42% and the S&P 500 by 0.11%. The US 10-year bond yield stands at 3.45%, the highest since April 2011. The FOMC meets and will announce on Wednesday a rate hike. Speculations of a 75 basis points rate hike rose after CPI inflation data on Friday; the PPI numbers today came below expectation but did not alleviate tightening expectations.

USD/JPY

On the other hand, Early on Tuesday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) expanded bond buying and offered to increase purchases over different durations on Wednesday, to bring the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) back within the 0.25% cap.

USD/JPY TECHNICAL LEVELS TO CONSIDER

On the daily chart, USD/JPY appears to be consolidating between 135 and 134.50 as the market contemplates the next move. While it is difficult to make a case against the US dollar, prices look overbought at current levels – shown by the RSI. In addition, price action over the last few days offers little insight other than ‘indecision’, as small candle bodies are accompanied by extended wicks on both sides.

As such, if we are to see a lower move/pullback, the lowest wick around 133.20 becomes the tripwire for a potential drop lower followed by 131.35. On the upside, a break and hold above 135, could indicate the re-emergence of the bullish trend – something that could very well materialize should markets view tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision as hawkish. A potential 75 basis point hike would widen the current interest rate differential even more which could see the yen depreciate against the dollar further.

US Dollar​


Moreover, The dollar edged higher against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, to scale a fresh two-decade high, as traders braced for an aggressive rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve this week to try to curb inflation.

The U.S. Dollar Currency Index, which tracks its performance against six other major currencies, was up 0.1% at 105.27, after climbing to as high as 105.32, its strongest since December 2002.

With inflation and growth-related concerns plaguing economies around the world, the greenback has benefited from safe haven flows in recent weeks and months.

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NZDUSD

Elsewhere, The NZDUSD - like other pairs vs the USD - is on a downward streak. For the NZDUSD it is working on its 8th consecutive day to the downside. The move lower has taken the price from 0.6575 on June 3 to the low of 0.6218 today so far. Yesterday the price closed at 0.62589. Stay below that level is more bearish

The move to the downside has pushed the price toward the May low which bottomed at 0.6212 on May 13. That is also the low for the year. The low price on May 12 was at 0.62164. Getting below both those levels would open up the door for further downside momentum. The low price just reached 0.6218 – just above those levels and trades at 0.6224 currently.

AUD/USD​


The Australian dollar plunges to fresh four-week lows after news that the Federal Reserve would hike 75 bps in the June meeting, the largest since 1994, as US inflation hit 8.6%, showing signs of not abating in the near term. After reaching a daily high near 0.6970, the Aussie dollar collapsed and trades at 0.6894 at the time of writing.

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The AUD/USD is downward biased, reinforced by the break below the June 2 low at 0.7140, extending the pair losses towards the 0.7030s area. Nevertheless, on Monday, the major collapsed in tandem with most G8 currencies vs. the greenback on Federal Reserve news.

Therefore, the AUD/USD might re-test the 0.6900 before resuming the uptrend. Then the AUD/USD first support would be the May 16 low at 0.6872. A breach of the latter would expose the May 13 daily low at 0.6853, followed by the YTD low at 0.6828.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair hit levels under 1.2000 for the first time since March 2020. The pound remains under pressure even as market participants expect a rate hike from the Bank of England on Thursday.

The pound weakened earlier on Tuesday following UK employment data. Brexit concerns and also the rally in EUR/GBP that broke a multi-day range, hitting one-year highs also weighed on sterling.

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somrat4030

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June-15, 2022, Daily currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


Daily currency trading analysis, june-15, 2022

The British pound gained some ground on Wednesday and trimmed five days of consecutive losses after reaching a 2-year low at around 1.1935. However, the GBP/USD stages a recovery and is back above the 1.2000 mark, trading at 1.2092, up by 0.81% at the time of writing.

Positive sentiment and lower US Treasury yields, a tailwind for GBP/USD

The pullback in US Treasury yields weighed on the greenback against the pound. The US 10-year Treasury yield is sliding five bps, at 3.418%. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, a measure of the buck’s value against some peers, records minimal losses of 0.06%, down at 105.411.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD is falling on Wednesday, trading at daily lows near 1.0380 ahead of the Fed’s decision. The US dollar is posting mixed results while the euro is falling across the board weakened after the European Central Bank emergency meeting.

The EUR/USD awaits the outcome of the two-day Fed meeting trading at daily lows and looking at the May bottom of 1.0345/50. The mentioned area is a key support that if broken could open the doors to 1.0300 and below. Also, the area could trigger a rebound. Resistance levels might be located at 1.0420 and then 1.0490/1.0500.

USDCHF


As the market awaits the FOMC decision at 2 PM ET, the USDCHF is trading near its highs for the day and for the week just reached 1.00297. The high price yesterday extended to 1.0036.

Looking at the hourly chart, the price action initially moved to the downside in the Asian session, and in doing so entered within a wide swatch of swing highs and lows that was developed between May 9, and May 18. That area comes between 0.9961 and 0.99937. The price low extended to the low of that swing area at 0.9961, where support buyers did show up and push the price back to the upside.

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AUD/USD

AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed up from the key support level 0.6850 (which stopped the earlier sharp downward impulse wave 1 in the middle of May).

The upward reversal from the support level 0.6850 is likely to create the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing – a strong buy signal for this currency pair.

Given the oversold daily Stochastic, AUDUSD can be expected to rise further toward the next round resistance level 0.7000.

XAU/USD​


Gold found some bids this morning after the week’s significant drop towards $1800/oz. The U.S. dollar being one such influence is trading marginally lower thus boosting gold prices ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision later this evening (see calendar below). Retail sales will serve as a precursor to the Fed rate decision and we could see anything higher than 0.2% could add to the already hawkish narrative, leading to a stronger dollar and weaker gold.

Russian rouble

The Russian rouble was down slightly in Wednesday trading, while stocks gained ground, shielded from the widespread global sell-off of recent days by Moscow's capital controls.

At 1330 GMT, the rouble shed 0.5% against the dollar at 56.89 and was down 0.3% to trade at 59.35 against the euro.

Insulated from the turmoil on global stage and with international investors largely frozen out of the market, Russian stock indexes advanced in trading in Moscow.

The dollar-denominated RTS index was up 0.8% to 1,283.2 points. The rouble-based MOEX Russian index was 1.25% higher at 2,318.14 points.

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somrat4030

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June-16, 2022, Daily latest currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


currency pairs analysis, june-16, 2022

EUR/USD advances above the 1.0400-1.0500 range, and it is trading with gains of 0.68% during the New York session, at around 1.0509 at the time of writing.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The EUR/USD daily chart depicts the pair as downward biased unless it recovers the 1.0800 mark. Furthermore, the Relative Strenght Index at 43 remains in negative territory, despite Tuesday’s jump, which propelled the consolidation in the EUR/USD.

The EUR/USD 1-hour chart depicts the pair trading above a double bottom neckline in the near term. However, the last candle shows price exhaustion, and with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 67.66 accelerating toward overbought conditions, a pullback towards the neckline around 1.0470 is on the cards. That said, the EUR/USD will find some resistance levels at the R1 daily pivot at 1.0512, followed by the double bottom target at 1.0550.

USD/CAD

The Canadian Dollar slipped more than 1.2% against the US Dollar this week with USD/CAD surging back into a critical resistance pivot on the heels of a 75 basis point hike from the FOMC. While the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable while below this threshold and we’re on the lookout for possible price inflection here this week. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD weekly technical price chart.

Initial weekly support now rests with the June 6th weekly reversal close at 1.2784 and the 61.8% retracement at the 1.27-handle- we’ll reserve this threshold as our medium-term bullish invalidation level. A topside breach / close above 1.3023 is needed to validate resumption of the broader uptrend with such a scenario exposing subsequent resistance objectives at the 75% parallel (currently ~1.3120) and the 100% extension of the 2021 advance at 1.3230- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

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Russian rouble​


The Russian rouble and stocks gained on Thursday, as the head of the central bank said the currency would remain free-floating and that capital controls should continue to be relaxed.

At 1435 GMT, the rouble was 0.7% stronger against the dollar at 56.61 and had gained 1.4% to trade at 58.96 versus the euro.

Russian stocks also pushed higher in trading in Moscow.

The dollar-denominated RTS index was up 2.3% to 1,309.7 points. The rouble-based MOEX Russian index was 1.6% higher at 2,355.2 points.

USD/JPY

The USDJPY broke below its 200 hour moving average today and buyers turned to sellers. Recall from yesterday, the 200 hour moving average did stall the fall, and not led to a bounce back higher in the Asian session.

The price bounce in the Asian session did extend back above its 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above at 134.402 currently), but could not maintain momentum.

The SNB surprise rate decision, sent the pair through the 200 hour moving average and down to a low at 132.304. That tested the intraday swing low from June 7 at 132.306. So far the level is holding, but on a break, the 38.2% retracement at 132.05 would next be targeted, followed by a swing area at 131.24 – 131.345.

GBP/USD​


The GBP/USD pair witnessed a short-covering bounce on Thursday and rallied nearly 150 pips from the 1.2040 area, or the daily low touched in the aftermath of the Bank of England policy decision. The momentum pushed spot prices to a three-day high, around the 1.2280-1.2285 region during the early North American session.

The intraday US dollar positive move lost steam following the disappointing release of the US macro data, which, in turn, was seen as a key factor that offered support to the GBP/USD pair. The US Department of Commerce reported that Housing Starts declined by 14.4% and Building Permits fell by 7% in May. Adding to this, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey's diffusion index for current general activity declined to -3.3 in June from 2.5 in May. The data added to worries about softening US economic growth and prompted some selling around the greenback.

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somrat4030

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June-17, 2022, Daily currency pairs analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


Dollar forecast, june-17, 2022

The dollar is back on the offensive across the board (except for versus Swiss franc) on Friday after two days of solid losses. The USD index climbed back above 104.00 but still lacks recovery momentum, struggling around 104.60 as risk sentiment has improved somehow at the end of a very tough week. European stocks switched into recovery mode, and so did US equities. Still, Wall Street indexes are on pace for a bearish week ahead of a long weekend in the United States.

ECB policymaker Knot said that the central bank could opt for several 50 basis points rate hikes in case the inflation situation in the Eurozone worsens. However, those remarks seem to have no impact on the common currency. EUR/USD is now back below the 1.0500 figure, shedding nearly 0.6% on the day.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD extended its slide after dropping below 1.0500 and touched a fresh daily low below 1.0450. As the dollar continues to gather strength, the pair looks to close the second straight week in negative territory.

DXY rises to 105.00

Following a two-day drop, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar's performance against a basket of six major rivals, reversed its direction and erased its weekly losses. At the time of press, the DXY was up more than 1% on the day at 105.00.

GBP/USD​


Next week’s economic calendar is rife with high impact events from both the UK and U.S. (see economic calendar below) with UK inflation being the main focus for the pound. Both core and headline inflation figures have yet to take a step back since September last year with expectations looking at another increase. This should increase hawkish pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to increase interest rates by 50bps in August – which they have put forward as an option in during their last rate announcement.

Technical analysis

Daily GBP/USD price action shows the recovery post-FOMC and BoE but has since given back some gains on Friday. Bulls are finding resistance at the 20-day EMA level (purple) and as we head into Wednesdays CPI read I don’t see much in the way of significant price moves for cable. I expect prices to hover between the 1.2200 and 1.2400 levels respectively with my medium/long-term outlook in favor of the U.S. dollar. While there is still room for upside in the short-term, a key point of inflection would be around trendline resistance (black) and whether or not we see a candle close above (breakout) which could then prompt a mindset change to a potential trend reversal.

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USD/CAD

The USD/CAD soars above the 1.3000 mark for the first time since May 12 and records a fresh YTD high at around 1.3078 after Wednesday’s US Federal Reserve 75 bps rate hike, which did not catch traders off guard due to an article on the WSJ on Monday that foresaw an increase of that size. The USD/CAD initially reacted downwards to 1.2880 but was seen as an opportunity for USD/CAD buyers, which lifted the pair higher. At the time of writing, the USD/CAD is trading at 1.3045, up by 0.81%.

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

With the USD/CAD trading at fresh YTD highs, switching to the weekly chart is needed to determine what’s next for the major. It’s worth noting that the USD/CAD is trading above the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), a strong bullish signal that could lift the pair towards October’s 2020 highs at around 1.3390. Nevertheless, the USD/CAD is retreating below the May 12 high at 1.3076.

A daily close below 1.3078 would open the door for further losses. That said, the USD/CAD first support would be the 1.3000 mark. Once cleared, the following support would be the June 16 1.2860 cycle low, followed by 1.2800.

AUD/USD​


The AUDUSD rallied higher yesterday along with the other dollar selling trends in the major currency pairs. However, once the pair reached the 200 hour moving average and 50% retracement near 0.7066, sellers leaned and the price started wandering back to the downside.

Today in the Asian session, the 38.2% retracement at 0.7015 was tested and then broken. Then in the US session, the 100 hour moving average and swing area between 0.69489 and 0.6962 was broken leading to another run toward the lower swing area between 0.68916 and 0.69168.

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somrat4030

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June-21, 2022, daily currency pairs analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


Daily currency pairs analysis, june-21, 2022

US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Next on the downside comes 103.41

DXY adds to the negative start of the week and briefly visits the area below the 104.00 support on Tuesday.

Considering the ongoing price action, further correction should not be ruled out in the short-term time frame. That said, another visit to the post-FOMC low at 103.41 (June 16) is expected to remain on the cards in the near term ahead of the interim 55-day SMA at 102.53.


As long as the 4-month line around 101.85 holds the downside, the near-term outlook for the index should remain constructive.

Looking at the longer run, the outlook for the dollar is seen bullish while above the 200-day SMA at 97.67.

EUR/USD​


EUR/USD extends the buying bias for the second session in a row and climbs to the 1.0580/85 band on Tuesday.

If bulls push harder, then the pair could attempt a move to the minor hurdle at the June 16 high at 1.0601. Beyond this level comes the 55-day SMA at 1.0642 prior to the 4-month line around 1.0700. Spot needs to clear the latter to mitigate the selling pressure and allow for the continuation of the recovery in the short-term horizon.

In the longer run, the pair’s bearish view is expected to prevail as long as it trades below the 200-day SMA at 1.1155.

JPY/USD

The Japanese yen plunged on Tuesday to the lowest levels versus the U.S. dollar since October 1998, as the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy stance continued to weigh.

The yen dropped 0.9% to a new 24-year low of 136.330 per dollar, extending losses which have already seen it shed more than 18% of its value versus the greenback this year.

The yen's decline was also accelerated by some stop losses broken around the 135.60 levels, according to analysts, who noted New York traders had been absent on Monday, a U.S. public holiday.

Technical Outlook:

USD/JPY clawed back some losses at the end of last week – a week which saw a surprise 50 bps hike from the Swiss National Bank (SNB), an aggressive 75 bps hike from the fed with more to come depending on data, and confusion out of the ECB regarding its anti-fragmentation tool for the bond market.

However, a solid rejection ahead of the 131.35 level set the scene for another advance in USD/JPY, rising above prior levels with ease. Today, the pair has traded above last week’s high of 135.60, fast approaching 136 flat. Nearest resistance now lies at the October 1998 level of 136.89 followed by 139.26 (May 1998). Support appears at 135 flat, 133.20 and 131.35.

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USD/CAD

The USDCAD is modestly lower today after peaking near the May 2022 high on Friday (highest level since November 2020). The price action today has seen a continuation of the move lower. The pair has moved below the swing high from last Wednesday and the down to a swing area between 1.29700 and 1.29798. Below that sits, the rising 100 hour MA at 1.29606.

The low today has reached 1.2978. The current price is at 1.2990.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) gained ground as well, up by 0.2%, boosted by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe's remarks that additional tightening is needed because rates are still low and inflation is expected to reach 7% by year's end. The New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) mirrored the Aussie's performance (+0.2% today).

The AUD/USD daily chart formed a double bottom around 0.685 last week, a level reached by the pair in mid-May before rebounding to 0.727.

AUD/USD is now trading at 0.699, up by 1.3% over the past week.

GBP/USD​


On the other hand, The British Pound is moving gently higher in early trade despite a raft of negatives hanging over GBP. Wednesday’s inflation release is expected to show headline inflation y/y (May) touch 9.1%, a fresh four-decade high, with some market commentators seeing an even higher print.

GBP/USD currently changes hands just below 1.2300, marginally higher on the session due mainly to the US dollar drifting lower. Cable has had a torrid time of late – the pair traded at 1.1935 last Tuesday – and while the recent rally will be welcome by Sterling bulls, the move higher looks fragile and unlikely to break above a zone of resistance on either side of 1.2400, in the short-term at least. All eyes on Wednesday’s UK inflation reading and any subsequent BoE commentary.

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somrat4030

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June-22, 2022, Daily latest currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


currency trading analysis, jnue-22, 2022

The dollar eased against the euro and yen on Wednesday as concerns mounted that interest rate hikes by major central banks to contain inflation run the risk of inducing a sharp global slowdown or recession.

British consumer price inflation hit a new 40-year high at 9.1% in May, while annual Canadian inflation surged to 7.7% last month to the highest rate since January 1983, in the latest data to show consumer prices running hotter than expected.

Sterling initially lost almost 1% as it fell to a near one-week low of $1.2162, but it later pared losses. The Canadian dollar slid against the U.S. currency, but it remained below the 1.30 level it breeched last Friday and on Monday.

The dollar index fell 0.201%, with the euro up 0.32% to $1.0559. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.53% to 135.89 per dollar, while sterling was last 0.06% lower at $1.2265.

EUR/USD​


The shared currency extends its gains in the week, advances for the third straight day, up by 0.45%, amidst a mixed market mood surrounding the financial markets. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.0576.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the last seven days, the EUR/USD has advanced steadily in six, though the negative day was absorbed by June’s 20 and 21 price action. EUR/USD traders should note that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49.45 is aiming higher after breaking above the RSI’s 7-day SMA, suggesting some buying pressure is mounting on the pair.

Therefore, the EUR/USD is upward biased in the near term. That said, the EUR/USD first resistance would be the 1.0600 figure. A breach of the latter would expose the June 10 daily high at 1.0642, closely followed by the 1.0700 mark.

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GBP/USD

It was an even more painful quarter for GBP as the Euro has out-performed the British Pound in Q2, which can be witnessed by the breakout in EUR/GBP.

But, to be sure, the Bank of England will be dealing with a similar issue as the ECB with inflation expected to continue climbing there. In the U.K., the BoE has been up-front about their expectations which include the possibility of recession as inflation climbs above 10% later this summer. The difference, however, is that the BoE has already started the process of hiking rates.

Technical outlook

In GBP/USD, the pair crossed a big level last week at 1.2000. A strong pullback developed shortly after, and there may be a bit more room for that theme to work, with possible resistance in the 1.2452-1.2500 area on the chart. If that doesn’t hold, there’s another spot of prior support/resistance overhead, plotted around the 1.2650 area on the chart.

AUD/USD

The AUDUSD has seen a bounce higher after a run lower in the Asian and early European session. The move lower did extend below a large-ish swing area between 0.68916 and 0.69168. However, the low could not reach a lower swing target near 0.6870.

The move back to the upside, helped by Powell comments, has pushed the pair to another swing area between 0.6949 and 0.6962. Just above that level is falling 100/200 hour MA at 0.6965.

USD/JPY​


Analysts at MUFG Bank, hold a bullish bias for the USD/JPY pair, reflecting the fact that the US rates market is unlikely to correct dramatically lower over the very short term. They see the pair trading between 130.00 and 138.50 during the weeks ahead.

Moreover, The main downside risk for USD/JPY in the month ahead would be if the scale of JPY weakness finally triggers a joint policy response from the government and BoJ. But the scale of JGB buying by the BoJ last week suggests action to limit yen weakness is unlikely over the short-term. A sharper correction in US rates lower is another key downside risk and while we expect that to materialize later, it is premature to expect that over the short-term with the primary focus of the Fed still on tackling upside inflation risks.

XAU/USD

Spot gold edged higher on Wednesday after three days in red, boosted by risk aversion on lower stocks, political uncertainty and fears of recession, as raging inflation hurts economies while major central banks raise interest rates to curb rising prices that risks economic growth slowdown.

Fresh advance probes through strong barrier at $1842/43 (50% retracement of $1879/$1809 bear-leg / 200DMA), close above which would improve near-term structure and shift focus towards pivotal levels at $1850 (Fibo 61.8%) and 1857 (Jun 16/17 double-top).

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somrat4030

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June-23, 2022, Daily latest currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


currency trading analysis, june-23, 2022

The GBP/USD pair is trading in the red at 1.2232 at the time of writing. In the short term, the pair moves sideways, so we'll have to wait for the pair to escape from this range before going long or short. The price seems undecided as the Dollar Index moved sideways in the short term.

The pair continues to stay in a neutral zone as the US data came in worse than expected earlier. The Flash Services PMI came in at 51.6 points versus 53.4 points in the previous reporting period, even if the specialists expected a potential growth up to 53.9 points.

Furthermore, the Flash Manufacturing PMI was reported at 52.4 points below 56.0 estimated, while the Unemployment Claims dropped from 231K to 229K failing to reach the 227K forecasts. On the other hand, the UK inflation data came in mixed. The Flash Services PMI came in better than expected signaling further expansion, while the Flash Manufacturing PMI reported worse than expected data.

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen is in positive territory today, extending its gains from yesterday. USD/JPY is trading at 135.46 in the European session, down 0.56% on the day.

Yen Rises As U.S. Yields Dip

The yen has gained a bit of strength as USD/JPY is back below 136.00, after rising close to 136.71 earlier in the week, its highest level since September 1998. The yen received a reprieve from its recent slide due to a drop yesterday in U.S. Treasury yields, rather than any newfound strength related to the yen. This is another indication that USD/JPY movement is at the mercy of the U.S./Japan rate differential, with the Bank of Japan holding firm on its yield cap for JGBs.

USD/JPY Technical

There is resistance at 1.3657 and 1.3814
USD/JPY has support at 1.3404 and 1.3247

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EUR/USD

The EUR/USD slides for the first day in the week, down by 0.30%, courtesy of a mixed market mood and dismal S&P Global PMIs figures on the Euro area reported in the European session, which tumbled the EUR/USD from daily highs around 1.0580s to daily lows near 1.0482. At 1.0509, the EUR/USD prints losses and is ready to continue its path towards the 1.0500 figure.

Elsewhere, the US Dollar Index, a gauge of the buck’s value against its peers, pops up 0.25% sitting at 104.445, while US Treasury yields, fall, reflecting investors are reassessing not as aggressive as expected Fed tightening, as the US S&P Global PMIs crossed wires.

USD/CAD​


Analysts at CIBC see the USD/CAD pair trading around 1.29 during the third quarter and rising toward 1.31 by year-end. They consider markets are overpricing tightening this year from the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve.

“A likely 75 bp hike by the Bank of Canada in July, and the potential for another move of that magnitude in September if we don't see enough of an inflation deceleration by then, should be aggressive enough to allow USDCAD to remain around current levels over the next three months.”

“Contrary to market expectations, the BoC is unlikely to send Canada's overnight rate beyond the Fed's destination of 3.25%. Canada’s debtburdened households and mortgage renewals will see rate hikes weigh more on discretionary consumer spending in Canada. That points to a slightly lower terminal rate for the BoC overnight rate, although we're leaning towards a 3% peak rather than our prior 2.75% after the May inflation data.”

NZD/USD


On the other hand, The NZD/USD pair has been suppressed for a while now but approaches a rather key level of support (0.6200) once again. This presents an interesting dilemma of a possible bounce of breakdown. Chartists will tell you that the more frequently a level is tested and respected, the more likely it is to eventually give way. Thus far, the pair has approached 0.6200 and the 61.8% Fib of the March 2020 major move without continued downside momentum.

Fundamental factors supporting another bounce off the 0.6200 level include China’s supportive monetary policy amid scattered lockdowns and slower growth. Nevertheless, IMF forecast China to recover faster than the US into 2023 which bodes well for the Kiwi as China is new Zealand’s largest trading partner. Looking at the US dollar, we have already seen yields drop and market expectations around the Fed’s terminal rate appears to have peaked last week, around 4%.

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somrat4030

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June-27, 2022, Daily currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


Daily currency trading analysis, june-27, 2022


The British pound remains to trade in a narrow range vs. the greenback, though it stays trading with minimal gains after probing the 1.2300 mark reaching daily highs at 1.2313, followed by a dip towards daily lows near 1.2238. At 1.2277, the GBP/USD is up 0.05% in the North American session.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Consolidation is what the GBP/USD daily chart shows, within the 1.2150-1.2300 area, though it is skewed to the downside. Confirmation of the previously mentioned is the exponential moving averages (EMAs), above the exchange rate, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 44.97, remains in bearish territory.

If GBP/USD buyers need to regain control, they must reclaim 1.2500. Nevertheless, on its way north, they would face resistance at the 1.2300 mark. Once cleared, the 50-EMA at 1.2353 would be the next ñeveñ to challenge, followed by June’s 16 high at 1.2405, and then the 100-EMAR at 1.2463.

EUR/USD

On the other hand, The EUR/USD rose further during the American session and climbed to 1.0614, reaching the highest level in two weeks. The euro pulled back under 1.0600. It is holding onto daily gains, still unable to consolidate above 1.0600.

The improvement in risk sentiment weakened the greenback. The DXY is falling 0.25% on Monday, trading at 103.85. US bond yields are modestly higher but European yields rose even further. The German 10-year yield jumped 7% to 1.54%. The divergence helped EUR/USD move higher.

Bullish short-term outlook

The EUR/USD is trading above 1.0580, but is showing difficulties running above 1.0600. The euro is back above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (1.0588). A daily close above 1.0600 should strengthen the recovery. The 55-day SMA awaits at 1.0620.

A decline under 1.0580 would alleviate the bullish pressure. The next support might be located at 1.0530 followed by 1.0490.

US Dollar​


U.S. Durable Goods Orders (May) –ACT: 0.7%, EST: 0%; CORE – ACT: 0.7%, EST: 0.3%

Durable goods orders are used as a barometer for the U.S. economy by measuring industrial activity. This economic indicator represents new order data from U.S. manufacturers for higher value goods that are said to last over three years. Increasing durable goods numbers are often thought of as positives for the U.S. economy and thus the dollar by way of investors’ confidence.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Post-announcement, the DXY was bid finding sustenance from bulls and overshadowing the recent recessionary talk in the U.S.. Price action is currently testing resistance at the 50-day EMA (purple) while the days long lower wick may point to impending upside near-term.

Resistance levels:
105.00

Support levels:
20-day EMA (purple)
50-day EMA (blue)
Trendline support (black)

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AUD/USD

The AUD/USD seesaws from daily highs around 0.6958 printed during the Asian session and dipped towards daily lows near 0.6910, in a narrow trading range that witnessed the Aussie dollar losing some ground vs. the greenback. At 0.6944, the AUD/USD trades above the middle of the aforementioned 0.6910-0.6960 region during the North American session.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, the Aussie dollar is still headed to the downside as the week begins. If AUD/USD buyers would like to regain control, they need to reclaim 0.7000 to ease the ongoing selling pressure on the pair. If that is achieved, AUD buyers’ next target would be the 20-EMA at 0.7047, immediately followed by the 50-EMA at 0.7078.

On the flip side, and the AUD/USD path of least resistance, the first support would be 0.6900. A breach below would expose June 23 low at 0.6869, followed by the June 14 swing low at 0.6850.

USD/CAD​


USD/CAD fell 21 pips to 1.2875 as the rebound in oil prices continued. The US dollar was mixed as high yields and good economic data competed with end-of-month flows into some beaten-down currencies.

The main feature on the USD/CAD chat is the double top at 1.3077/79. The declines in the past two days emphasize that as a key point of resistance and a potential top.

USD/JPY

Elsewhere, Japan has seen inflation move higher, although nowhere near the levels in the US or the UK, which are not far from double-digits. Last week, core CPI for May came in at 2.1% YoY, unchanged from April. This was the second straight month that core CPI remained above the BoJ’s target of 2%. This is a dramatic shift, given that Japan struggled with deflation for decades. The driver behind rising inflation is higher food and energy prices, as well as the plummeting yen. Notably, wages have not risen.

USD/JPY Technical

USD/JPY tested resistance at 1.3540 earlier in the day. Above, there is resistance at 1.3654

USD/JPY has support at 1.3409 and 1.3295

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somrat4030

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June-28, 2022, Daily latest currency pairs analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


Daily latest currency market forecast, june-28, 2022

The US Dollar has spent much of the past two weeks pulling back, with the FOMC rate decision in the middle of June as the defining line. While the Fed didn’t necessarily say anything dovish there, the USD hasn’t yet been unable to take out or even test the high that was set just as the FOMC statement was released.

That pullback had taken on a somewhat orderly fashion, with a series of lower-highs to go along with horizontal support at 103.82. That price was the high in 2017 and it held as the five-year-high until it began to be tested in April, eventually giving way to bullish pressure in the month of May.

EUR/USD

On the other hand, A key push-point for this theme in the USD has been EUR/USD. Going along with that descending triangle in the US Dollar, EUR/USD had built the mirror image formation with an ascending triangle. Resistance was from the same 1.0593-1.0638 zone that’s been in-play as resistance in May and then support in early-June. That zone has seen three separate resistance tests since mid-June with bulls making slightly higher-highs each time.

If sellers can pose a breach, follow-through support exists around 1.0450 and then 1.0357. If bulls can hold the low while forcing a late-quarter turn-around, next resistance beyond 1.0593 is the 1.0638 level, followed by a spot at 1.0695 and after that, the bigger zone of resistance running from 1.0767-1.0787.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair built on its steady intraday ascent through the early North American session and shot to a fresh three-day high, around the 136.30 region in the last hour.

The intraday bullish momentum, also marking the third successive day of a positive move, could further be attributed to some technical buying above the 136.00 round-figure mark. This, in turn, might have already set the stage for an extension of the upward trajectory, back towards retesting a 24-year high, around the 136.70 region touched last week.

Moving ahead, the market focus now shifts to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearance on Wednesday. Market participants will look for clues about the US central bank's policy tightening path. This will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and help investors to determine the next leg of a directional move for the USD/JPY pair.

Russian Ruble​


The rouble rallied past 52 against the dollar to a more than a seven-year high on Tuesday as capital controls and month-end taxes offset the negative impact of Western statements that Russia has defaulted on its international bonds.

The rouble hit 50.6125 against the dollar in Moscow trade for the first time since late May 2015, and jumped to 54.40 against the euro, a level last seen in April 2015.

As of 1523 GMT, the rouble gained nearly 3% to 51.88 against the greenback and was at 54.71 against the euro, gaining more than 2.5% on the day.

Market players "see the current levels as attractive for purchasing hard currency, especially in light of the recent comments from Russian officials indicating that the rouble has become too strong," Sberbank CIB said in a note.

On the stock market, the dollar-denominated RTS index rose 2.5% to 1,464.1 points. The rouble-based MOEX Russian index was 0.3% lower at 2,409.1 points.

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EUR/GBP

The pound may not receive a lasting support from the Bank of England, even if it accelerates rate hikes, as investors override concerns about UK investment and growth, explain analysts at Rabobank.

The BoE was quicker out of the blocks on policy tightening than many other G10 central banks this cycle. However, the five interest rate hikes announced by the BoE already have not prevented the pound from being one of the poorest performing G10 currencies in the year to date. A step up in the pace of BoE rate hikes, may not provide the pound with much lasting support given investors overriding concerns about UK investment and growth. We see scope for EUR/GBP to end the year around 0.88.

USD/CAD​


Elsewhere, USD/CAD fell 21 pips to 1.2875 as the rebound in oil prices continued. The US dollar was mixed as high yields and good economic data competed with end-of-month flows into some beaten-down currencies.

The main feature on the USD/CAD chat is the double top at 1.3077/79. The declines in the past two days emphasize that as a key point of resistance and a potential top.

The next hurdle to cross will be the June 16 low of 1.2861, which is about a dozen pips away but has held on a handful of pushes lower today. If that gives out, the 55-day moving average clocks in at 1.2783.

AUD/USD

The Aussie dollar eases from one-week high on Tuesday after failing to benefit more from positive news that China slashed Covid quarantine for international travelers.

The price action fell back below 10DMA (0.6951) which caps the price since June 9 and maintains negative bias, with repeated daily close below to add to fragile near-term structure.

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somrat4030

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June-29, 2022, Daily latest currency trading analysis and market forecast, by forex forum.​


forex trading analysis, june-29, 2022

The GBP/USD pair added to the previous day's heavy losses and remained under intense selling pressure for the second successive day on Wednesday. The downward trajectory picked up pace during the early North American session and dragged spot prices to the 1.2100 neighborhood, or a nearly two-week low.

The US dollar attracted some buying in reaction to hawkish remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and shot to its highest level since June 17. This, in turn, exerted downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair.

Apart from this, sliding US Treasury bond yields, along with a generally positive tone around the US equity markets, might cap gains for the safe-haven USD and limit deeper losses for the GBP/USD pair. That said, sustained weakness below the 1.2100 round-figure mark would be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and set the stage for a further depreciating move.

EUR/USD

The euro gave back earlier gains on Wednesday after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the era of ultra low inflation that preceded the pandemic is unlikely to return.

The euro was last down 0.41% to $1.0475. It had dropped to as low as $1.0486 earlier in the day after data showed June prices in the German state of North Rhine–Westphalia (NRW) had been 0.1% lower than in May, but had recovered after a high readout of Spanish inflation data.

Moreover, The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six counterparts, ticked up 0.412% to 104.880 with investors seeking safety in U.S. assets as stocks declined globally due to the mounting risk of a recession. The dollar index stayed, however, below the two-decade high of 105.79 struck two weeks ago.

US Dollar​


The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, rose as much as 0.45% to 104.95 on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve chairman offered hawkish remarks at the ECB summit held in Sintra, Portugal. During a panel that also included Christine Lagarde and Andrew Bailey, Jerome Powell reiterated in no uncertain terms that the Fed is committed to using its tools to bring inflation down to 2% and that it will not allow the economy to move to a highly inflationary environment.

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US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

After encountering support in the 103.80 area earlier this week, the U.S. dollar (DXY) has gathered strength to rebound over the past two sessions, advancing towards key resistance at the 2022 highs near 105.75. If bulls manage to push the index above this barrier in the coming sessions, bullish momentum could accelerate, setting the stage for a rally towards 106.60.

On the other hand, if sellers regain control of the market and prices reverse lower, initial support rests at 103.80/103.60. If we see a drop below this technical floor, the focus shifts to trendline support near 102.50.

USD/JPY

USDJPY managed to gain fresh buying traction around the resistance-turned-support area of 134.42 last week, with the price currently looking to extend its broad uptrend above the 20-year high of 136.70.

Although the clear positive slope in the simple moving averages (SMAs) is still backing the bullish direction in the market, the momentum indicators warrant some caution over the strength in the market.

Should the bulls snap the top of 136.70, the next obstacle could be the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the 131.34 – 126.35 downleg at 139.15, while the broken support line could immediately cap the rally near 140.70, preventing a spike towards the tentative resistance line seen around 143.53.

EUR/CHF

On the other hand, The euro is struggling on all fronts today but technically, EUR/CHF is the most interesting.

The pair is down 90 pips today to 0.9974. That's just above the March low of 0.9970. Beyond that we have to go back to the depths of the rug-pull from the Swiss National Bank in 2015.

Given the SNB's propensity to intervene, this isn't a real market so I wouldn't put too much weight on the technicals.

XAU/USD


Elsewhere, Gold prices dropped sharply during the American session, erasing daily gains. XAU/USD peaked at $1833, the highest level in two days and then turned lower, falling to $1814, slightly above the daily low of $1811.

Short-term outlook

The bounce from $1811 weakened before reaching at $1835, a short-term downtrend line. A break above the mentioned level should open the doors to more gains, targeting initially $1845 and then levels above $1850.

While under $1835 the outlook is biased to the downside, with rising risks of more losses below the 20-Simple Moving Average in four-hour charts (currently at $1825).

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somrat4030

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June-30, 2022, Daily latest currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


currency trading analysis, june-30, 2022

The USD/JPY slides on Thursday, following a lower-than-expected inflation report, which could deter the US Federal Reserve from tightening at a faster pace amidst odds increasing of recession, keeping investors uneasy. At 135.85, the USD/JPY retreats from daily highs shy of 137.00, back below the 136.00 mark.

Besides that, fears of a recession as global growth stagnated, alongside high inflation, spurred a flight to safe-haven. Particularly in the USD/JPY, the yen remains bid, boosted by the fall in US Treasury yields, weighed by falling US inflation expectations, as illustrated by the five and 10-year break-even inflation rates, easing from YTD highs around 3.59% and 3.02% each, down to 2.59% and 2.36%, respectively.

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EUR/USD NEARS MAJOR SUPPORT​


On the other hand, The US Dollar is trading at a fresh 19-year high. USD/JPY is at a fresh 24-year high. EUR/USD, as yet, hasn’t been able to punch below its own 19-year-low.

It’s come close: That low is at 1.0340 and was set in 2017. In May, EUR/USD was hurdling-lower, but pulled up just short of that level at 1.0349. And then again, in June, the pair was punching-lower and a higher-low developed, this time at 1.0359.

At that point I started to look for a pullback in the move but that was cut short, with sellers coming in at the same resistance that’s held the highs for the past couple of weeks at 1.0593.

Sellers are making another attempt at support and so far, that attempt has fallen short. But, this carries breakdown potential into Q3 and the fundamental side is a major driver that doesn’t look to let up anytime soon.

At this point, resistance potential remains at the 1.0500 psychological level.

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY is currently at 141.58 and in a channel. We have convergence to the downside. If we can break this support, we are looking for a continuation towards the ATR target at the 140.77 area and then the S5 at the 140.47 area.

Watch the DXY for any change in direction. The ATR for the pair currently is 187 pips per day, and its 180-day average is 160 pips per day. DXY is currently up at the time of this post.

GBP/USD​


Economists at TD Securities expect the GBP/USD pair to continue its downfall. Although the Bank of England (BoE) could offer some support the market is too aggresive in its pricing and cable is likely to break under 1.20 in the near-term.

GBP vulnerable on the crosses
“The near-term GBP trajectory is biased to the downside, even though it maintains a pretty hefty discount.”

“The BoE plus fiscal support may help to put a floor in cable but not before a near-term break below 1.20. Still, BoE pricing seems too aggressive relative to our forecast, leaving GBP vulnerable on the crosses.”

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somrat4030

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July-01, 2022, Daily latest forex trading analysis and currency exchange forecast, by forex forum.​


forex trading analysis, july-01, 2022

The Dollar performed exceptionally well through the first half of 2022 – and more broadly over the preceding year. The fundamental stars aligned between a leading Fed tightening regime, perceptions of a greater cushion for the US economy amid forecasts of a global slowdown and the reliability of the currency’s renowned safe haven status. All of these elements are still in play heading into the second half of the year, but the relative potential has deflated.

The underwhelming follows through for the Greenback despite the Fed’s 75 basis point hike in June or during the S&P 500’s steep selloff in the first half of the same month likely indicates the limitations in support of the Dollar for the different dimensions. Can the benchmark currency extend its incredible rally into territory not charted in two decades or is it finding a peak?

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF accelerates and reclaims the 0.9600 figure after harmful US economic data, showing that the economy, although expanding, is doing it at a slower pace than estimated amidst a US Federal Reserve tightening cycle. At the time of writing, the USD/CHF is trading at 0.9624.

US equities are falling, preparing to finish the week with substantial losses. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields have recovered some ground, while the greenback remains in the driver’s seat, as shown by the US Dollar index, up 0.58%, at 105.340.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD bulls got a strong reversal bar following the June 13 bear close test and the June 15 low.
Yesterday was also the third reversal up from the 2017 low since May, which increases the probability of the market getting a rally here.
Bulls see yesterday as a signal bar for a higher low double bottom major trend reversal with June 15.
Bulls hope that the market will break above the neckline (June 27 high) and get a measured move up to 1.0871, which is about the June high.


Bears want the opposite and a breakout below the 2017 low. While it is possible, even if the market does fall below the 2017 low, there will probably be buyers, and the market will create a failed breakout of a double bottom.

Today is Friday, so the weekly chart is important.
Bulls want the market to close above last week’s low of 1.0469. Next, bulls would wish to close above the midpoint of the current week (1.0502).
Bears want the opposite of the bulls and for this week to close below last week’s low and create as small a tail below this week’s bar as possible.

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GBP/USD​


According to analysts from Rabobank, if the Bank of England (BoE) do not keep step with the hawkish guidance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) there is a risk that the pound could weaken further. They see the risk of dips in the GBP/USD pair to 1.18 on a three-month view.

“If expectations regarding BoE policy moves do not keep step with the hawkish guidance of the Federal Reserve, it can be argued there is a risk that GBP could weaken further. Yet, GBP is also proving sensitive to fears regarding growth. We see risk of dips to GBP/USD 1.18 on a 3 month view. We expect EUR/GBP to end the year at 0.88.

“The BoE was out of the traps much earlier than either the Fed or the ECB in terms of policy tightening. However, this has failed to give the pound much of a lift, with GBP one of the poorer performing G10 currencies in the year to date. In our view, the inability of GBP to benefit substantially from the BoE’s early rate hiking cycle is due to the market’s focus on the poor growth outlook for the UK.”

EUR/JPY

Concerning EUR/JPY’s daily highs and lows, it’s 1.062% down from its trailing 24 hours low of $142.15 and 1.174% down from its trailing 24 hours high of $142.31.

EUR/JPY’s yearly highs and lows, it’s 13.046% up from its 52-week low and 2.482% down from its 52-week high.

Volatility

EUR/JPY’s last week, last month’s, and last quarter’s current intraday variation average was 0.08%, 0.16%, and 0.57%, respectively.

EUR/JPY’s highest amplitude of average volatility was 0.34% (last week), 0.70% (last month), and 0.57% (last quarter), respectively.

GOLD​


Gold prices spent much of the past six weeks in a range. The final week of Q2 was especially choppy with little trend in-place. But, as I looked at on Tuesday, there was the initial makings of some bearish potential as produced by a descending triangle-like formation.

Well, as markets do, the first day of Q3 brought a far different tone than the prior six weeks as prices put in a quick breakdown to support at the 1785 level that I was following throughout last quarter.

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somrat4030

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July-04, 2022, Daily latest currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


Daily currency trading analysis, july-04, 2022

With the little in the way of market moving events over the weekend, global market including the euro has been left at the mercy of market sentiment. The situation in Ukraine and decisions by Russia could weigh negatively on the Eurozone should energy flows into the region be cut. The economic calendar is similarly light this week (see below) giving precedence to recessionary fears leading up to Wednesday’s commencement of high impact events.

This being said, the mornings news helped bolster euro bets after hawkish comments from Deutsche Bank’s CEO around hiking rates quicker than expected while talks around the anti-fragmentation tool is primed to be the talk of the town over the next few weeks. Should the ECB manage to clarify or agree on a path forward regarding ‘anti-fragmentation’, this could be extremely bullish for the euro.

Technical outlook of EUR/USD

Price action on the daily EUR/USD chart shows bulls once again defending the key area of support around the 1.0340 (January 2017 swing low). This key inflection point could mark the start of a extended move lower with the formation of the recent descending triangle pattern which will require a confirmation break below support. A rejection would thus occur if we see a breakout above triangle resistance coinciding with the 1.0601 swing high.

GBP/USD

On the other hand, GBP/USD held above 1.2100 around 1.2114 on Monday with the US dollar struggling to find demand amid a risk-positive market environment. The US dollar index remained in negative territory below 105.00 and the UK's FTSE 100 stock index was up more than 1%.

The US dollar index was pressured below 105.00 after the appearance of poor PMI data from the ISM. Poor numbers released by the US Institute of Supply Management (ISM) have raised the possibility of an economic recession in the United States. The US ISM conveys the vulnerability of the US economy in all aspects: Manufacturing PMI, New Orders Index and Employment Index.

Support & Resistance

The nearest “support” awaits at 1.2100 which if successfully passed will continue to 1.2050 and then 1.2000. The nearest “resistance” awaits at 1.2170 which if successfully passed will continue to 1.2200 and then 1.2250.

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USD/CAD​


The USD/CAD bounces off the 50-day EMA at 1.2830 and approaches the 1.2870 mark on Monday’s trading session, characterized by thin liquidity conditions as North American traders are on a long holiday in the observance of the US Independence day. At 1.2867, the USD/CAD is down 0.11% at the time of writing.

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/CAD is upward biased in the medium term, but last Friday’s price action formed a huge inverted hammer in an uptrend, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) accelerating downwards to the midline opened the door for further losses.

Therefore, the USD/CAD first support would be the 50-day EMA at 1.2830. Break below would expose 1.2800, and the 100-day EMA at 1.2737.

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF pair attracted some dip-buying near the 0.9560 region on Monday and refreshed the daily high during the mid-European session, albeit lacked any follow-through strength. The pair was last seen hovering around the 0.9600 mark, well below a one-week high touched on Friday.

Signs of stability in the financial markets undermined demand for safe-haven assets, including the Swiss franc, which turned out to be a key factor that extended some support to the USD/CHF pair. That said, the emergence of some selling around the US dollar failed to impress bullish traders or provide any meaningful impetus to the major.

On the other hand, the CHF continued drawing support from the Swiss National Bank's shocker on June 16, when it unexpectedly raised interest rates by 50 bps to curb soaring inflation. This warrants caution before positioning for any meaningful upside for the USD/CHF pair amid relatively lighter trading volumes on the back of a holiday in the US.

XAU/USD​


Gold (XAU/USD) closed in negative territory in the first four days of last week and hit its lowest level since the end of January on Friday. It reached the 1,784.40 level, before making a strong technical bounce to recover above the 1,800 later on.

Gold is not showing any clear signs of a solid rebound and could continue to oscillate between 1,843 and 1,800 in the short term. The dominant trend remains bearish. The metal managed to rebound from 1,784 on Friday and return above 1,800. In the event of a return below the psychological level of 1,800, bearish pressures would intensify, exposing the next support at 1,784 (1/8 Murray) and 0/8 Murray at 1,750.

Our trading plan is to buy gold in the event of a technical bounce at 1,800 or a sharp break of the downtrend channel above 1,815, targeting 1,840,1,843, and finally 1,875.

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somrat4030

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July-05, 2022, Daily latest currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


currency trading analysis, july-05, 2022

The USD/CHF advances sharply for the third straight day, snapping two days of consecutive losses that dragged the major to print a fresh two-month low of around 0.9495, gaining almost 1% on Tuesday. At the time of writing, the USD/CHF is trading at 0.9687.

On Tuesday, the USD/CHF opened near Monday highs. Nevertheless, it dipped as the London session opened, towards the daily pivot point around 0.9590, to never look back, overcoming on its way up some resistance levels, like the R1 pivot point at 0.9630, the July 1 high at 0.9641, before settling around just shy of the 0.9700 figure.

USD/CHF Daily chart

The USD/CHF daily chart illustrates the pair as upward biased; however, the double top remains in play. If the greenback extends its gains throughout the week and if USD/CHF buyers step in, a break above the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 0.9733 is on the cards and could accelerate a rally towards the 0.9900 mark. However, on its way north, USD/CHF buyers will need to reclaim April 2020 high at around 0.9802.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD outside-weekly reversal now testing key support- risk for price inflection
Weekly resistance, 1.2166, 1.2261, 1.2481– Support 1.1950-1.2021 (Key), 1.1650, 1.16


The British Pound plunged more than 1% against the US Dollar into the start of the week with GBP/USD on the defensive on the heels of an outside-weekly reversal last week. The decline takes Cable into a critical support pivot we've been tracking for months and the focus is on possible inflection in the days ahead. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the GBP/USD weekly chart heading into July.

A pivot below threatens significant losses for the Pound with such a scenario exposing the 2020 close low at 1.1650, the 1.16-handle and yearly channel support around 1.1450s- both levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached. Initial weekly resistance now eyed at the May 2020 low-week reversal close at 1.2166 backed closely by the May low-week close at 1.2261. Ultimately, a rally / close above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2021 decline / late-May weekly reversal-close at 1.2480/85 would be needed to invalidate the broader downtrend.

US Dollar​


The US Dollar is starting Q3 the way that it’s traded for most of the first-half of the year, showing strength as both fundamentals and techs continue to favor the USD. The currency now sits at a fresh 19-year-high, coming very close to the Fibonacci level at 106.61. As I had looked at on the final day of Q2, EUR/USD was going to be a big driver behind the US Dollar this quarter as the Euro had continued to push down for support tests at the 1.0340 area, giving appearance of breakdown potential that’s already come to fruition just a couple days into Q3 trade.

US DOLLAR SHORTER-TERM

I looked into this theme last Tuesday, highlighting a key support test in the USD as last quarter was winding down. That support at 103.82 was a prior high from 2017 and last week, this served as a launching pad for that move of USD strength.

At this point, the challenge on the long side is trying to avoid chasing the move. And given that this high watermark in the USD comes along with a low watermark in EUR/USD, there could be a propensity for traders to try to fade on or both moves.

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EUR/USD

On the other hand, The EUR/USD broke below the 2017 low during the overnight session.

This is a bear breakout of the past two months. Bears want a successful bear breakout and measured move down from the June 27th high to the June 15th bear flag low (1.0103). Next, the bears want a measured move down off the two-month range, which would project to under 1.0000.

The odds are the current bear breakout below the two-month range will be a final flag, and bulls will buy soon. Bears need the current bar to close near its low, and they will also need follow-through tomorrow. More likely, today will close with a tail below the bar, which would be disappointing for the bears.

USD/JPY​


The USD/JPY is almost unchanged in a trading session dominated by risk aversion, triggering flows toward safe-haven assets, and in the FX space, the USD, the JPY, and the CHF are the winners. Nevertheless, due to its risk-off nature, the USD/JPY is barely up 0.07%, trading around the 135.70s area.

Recession and high inflation worries are the headlines of the session. That said, European and US equities tumbled while safe-haven flows dominated the session, with the US Dollar Index, which pairs the greenback vs. six currencies, gaining 1.50%, sitting at 106.716. in the meantime, the USD/JPY seesawed in the 135.50-136.40 area during the day, within familiar ranges.

On the downside, the USD/JPY was capped by the strength of the greenback, but on the upside, falling US Treasury yields, mainly the US 10-year Treasury yields, are nose-diving thirteen basis points, sitting at 2.794%, well below the 3.50% YTD high.

Source: hotforex.com

USD/CAD

USD/CAD is at the highs of the day, up 175 pips to 1.3034.

That puts the pair within striking distance of the closing high for the year, which was at 1.3037 and set on June 17. That day they pair also set the intraday high at 1.3079.

Technically, the double top at 1.3079 was negative for the pair but the lack of follow-through to the downside in the past three weeks along with the big jump today suggests further upside -- something I've been calling for.

A pop of the upside and continued slump in energy/commodities could lift the pair to 1.36/1.37 in the next few months. The measured target of the broken double top would be 1.36.

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