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Forex Forum EUR, USD, JPY, GBP, CAD, AUD Market Analysis and Daily Forecast

somrat4030

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Staff member

Feb-10, 2022, Currency trading analysis and latest forecast, by forex forum.​


currency trading analysis


The EURUSD squeeze again larger​


The EURUSD has retraced all of the CPI declines. Earlier than the info, the EURUSD was buying and selling at 114.34. The worth moved all the way down to 113.74. That stage examined the 50% midpoint of the transfer up from final Thursday's low. The low fell in need of the rising 200 hour transferring common at 1.1366.

Sellers turned the patrons, and after the worth transfer again above the 1.1400 stage for the second hourly bar after the discharge, shorts had been squeezed additional. The worth moved above the 100 day transferring common at 1.1416 after which moved above the 100 hour transferring common at 1.1429. As I sort, a brand new excessive for the day's being made at 1.14465.

Moreover, New US inflation highs heaps pressure on the Fed
"Another strong CPI report, with consumer prices exceeding expectations. Total/core prices rose 0.6% MoM each, above the 0.4%/0.5% consensus, respectively. The YoY pace reached new multi-decade highs at 7.5%/6.0% for headline and core CPI inflation, respectively."

"The stronger than expected January CPI report increases the odds of a firmer monetary policy response by the Fed. We continue to expect the FOMC to raise rates by 25bp at its March meeting, but another solid print in February will likely encourage the Fed to accelerate the pace of hikes in 2022 and hasten both the timing and pace of balance sheet runoff."

"The next ECB meeting comes a few days ahead of the Fed, which leaves us biased for a retest of 1.13 in EUR/USD, before looking for a more meaningful move topside. Meanwhile, we think USD/JPY is destined higher (118), especially with the BOJ still very far away from any sort of normalization this year. We expect this CPI print to place pressure in equities, and that will weigh on the antipodes."

On the other hand, RBA AND BOJ LAG BEHIND OTHER MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS​

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has gone to great lengths to communicate to the market that it will remain supportive for as long as is necessary. In its recent statement on monetary policy for February, the Bank expects GDP to have reached 5% for 2021 despite Omicron and related lockdowns. The labor market has also tightened with unemployment as low as 4.2% in December and inflation, while heating up, is some distance away from levels experienced in the US or Eurozone. Ultimately, the Bank is satisfied with the current trajectory of monetary policy and remains accommodative as long as inflation remains within the 2 to 3 percent target range.

Source: dailyfx.com/forex

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Returns to Dovish Narrative​

Earlier today the Bank of Japan's Nakamura reinforced the Bank's dovish stance after stating the BoJ must maintain its current easy policy until wages begin to grow steadily. In addition, Governor Kuroda mentioned that chances of a large jump in inflation are low and supports accommodative policy as inflation remains below 2%.

Dovish comments are typical from Japan's central bank however, in mid-January, news broke that the Bank was debating messaging on eventual rate hike – by far the most hawkish development in years - which ushered in a period of JPY buying.

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somrat4030

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Staff member

Feb-11, 2022, Currency trading analysis and daily forecast, by forex forum.​


currency trading daily analysis

The country's foreign exchange reserves increased by $2.198 billion to $631.953 billion in the week ended February 4, RBI data showed.​


In the previous week ended January 28, the reserves had declined by $4.531 billion to $629.755 billion. It touched a lifetime high of $642.453 billion in the week ended September 3, 2021.

The AUD/USD pair recovered its intraday losses and climbed to a fresh daily high, around the 0.7170 region during the early North American session.​


The pair attracted fresh buying near the 0.7100 mark on Friday and for now, seems to have stalled the overnight sharp retracement slide from a three-week high, around the 0.7250 region. As investors digested Thursday's release of red-hot US consumer inflation figures, the US dollar witnessed some intraday selling amid modest pullback in the US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor behind the AUD/USD pair's goodish intraday bounce of over 60 pips.

On the other hand, EUR/USD is set to struggle to push significantly higher. Interest rate differentials between the USD and Euro will widen further.

Thursday's red hot US CPI print of 7.5% and subsequent hawkish Fed speak, sparked a sharp rally in US Treasury yields that saw the rate-sensitive UST 2 year hit a multi-year high of 1.64%. The four-decade high level of inflation sparked a round of hawkish Fed speak with St. Louis Fed President James Bullard calling for 100 basis points of rate hikes by July 1, including a 50 basis point hike at the next Fed meeting in March. The market is now pricing in seven rate hikes in 2022 as the central bank tries to dampen down rampant price pressures in the US.

Moreover, In the meantime, the U.S. dollar index was on track for weekly gains after U.S. inflation surged to a 40-year peak and comments from St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard unleashed a wave of bets on aggressive rate hikes.

Last week, Lagarde sent bond yields and the euro higher by signalling for the first time that an ECB rate hike this year was a possibility, but she has since tried to temper surging expectations of aggressive ECB action.

On Friday, the single currency fell 0.2% versus the dollar to $1.1405, off from a three-month high touched the previous day, after Lagarde said in an interview that raising rates now would not bring down record euro zone inflation but only slow down economic growth.

Source: finance.yahoo.com

On the other hand, Inflation is on the rise in Japan and can no longer be ignored, with wholesale prices surging to the highest levels seen in almost four decades during January.
Japan's corporate goods price index (CGPI) soared by 8.6% YoY in the month of January, taking the wholesale price index to a high of 109.5 last seen in September 1985.

The CGPI reading beat economists' forecast which was for a reading of 8.2% although it did ease lower from the previous month when it was 8.7%. The higher prices for fuel and other commodities were the main drivers for the surge in wholesale price inflation.

In addition, firms also had to pay higher costs for other raw materials owing to the disruptions in the global supply chain on account of the pandemic. Even though Japan's inflation levels remain well below those seen in other key economies, it looks like the nation can no longer stay immune from the spike in global commodity inflation.

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somrat4030

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Feb-14, 2022, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Technical Analysis and Currency Market Forecast, By forex forum.​


Currency trading analysis today

The EUR/USD pair trades near the 50% retracement of its latest daily rally measured between 1.1120 and 1.1494. The daily chart hints at further decline should the 1.1300 level give up, as the pair has retreated from a bearish 100 SMA and is currently piercing a mildly bearish 20 SMA. Meanwhile, the Momentum indicator hovers around its midline as the RSI indicator extends its decline within negative levels, currently at 46.

The pair is bearish according to technical readings in the 4-hour chart, as it is currently developing below all of its moving averages and as the 20 SMA accelerates south above the longer ones. At the same time, technical indicators are biased lower, although with limited strength, currently approaching oversold territory.

Support levels: 1.1300 1.1260 1.1220

Resistance levels: 1.1350 1.1390 1.1440


On the other hand, UK INFLATION PRINT POSES POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE RISK FOR THE POUND.​


Inflation continues to garner attention as policy normalization takes effect in the UK, with a 100% probability of a 25 basis point hike (0.25%) anticipated for March via rates markets. However, Wednesday's CPI print is forecasted to be 5.4% - the same as the month before - and could provide dovish members of the BoE with a reason to calm lofty rate hiking expectations.

The last fortnight of trading saw GBP/USD largely trade between 1.3515 and 1.3600 (opening and closing levels) however, today's early price action reveals a move lower could be on the cards.

Price action failed to trade and hold above the 200 day simple moving average (SMA) and recently broke below 1.3515. Bear in mind that the IG chart makes use of a Sunday candle meaning the SMA varies slightly form chart packages not showing Sundays. A further bearish signal appears in the form of a bearish crossover as the 20 SMA looks on the verge of crossing below the 50 SMA. Keep an eye on today's close.

Elsewhere, The Ukrainian-Russian conflict may cause panic in the markets​


The euro/dollar instrument fell by 25 basis points on Monday and generally moved very weakly. At the same time, the market now resembles a compressed spring that can shoot at any moment. It happened because of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, which quite unnoticeably for many has entered the stage when war can happen at any moment. It is this idea that the West is promoting to the masses, although Moscow officially declares that it is not preparing any invasion and is simply conducting exercises on its territory. However, you don't need to be an expert political scientist to understand that something is brewing. And this "something" scares investors, markets, and ordinary people. German Chancellor Olaf Stolz and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held talks in Kyiv today. Negotiations between Stolz and Russian President Vladimir Putin will take place tomorrow.

However, I would not count on these negotiations too much, since there have been a lot of such talks in the last few days alone. World leaders are, as they say, "in touch" with each other and constantly call up to discuss measures and ways out of the crisis. However, no solutions to the crisis have yet been proposed. Both sides of the conflict continue to stand their ground, so there is a compressed spring here. Everyone understands that Russian troops will not stay near the Ukrainian border forever. Therefore, the "X hour" must come. Either the de-escalation of the conflict will begin, or its escalation will continue. For de-escalation to begin, Kyiv must abandon its intentions to join NATO. But the Ukrainian authorities have so far refused such an option.

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somrat4030

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Feb- 15, 2022, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Fundamental and technical analysis, by forex forum.​


currenvy trading analysis today

GBP/EUR Stumbles as Geopolitical Anxieties Ease​


The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is edging down today as the Russia-Ukraine concerns ease, reducing the fears of a war out breaking on the EU border.

At the time of writing, the GBP/EUR exchange rate is trading at approximately €1.1943, roughly down by 0.2% from today's opening levels.


Euro (EUR) Bolstered by Eased Geopolitical Concerns​



The Euro (EUR) is trading higher against the Pound (GBP) as concerns of a Russian invasion ease.

Russia is reportedly withdrawing some troops from the Ukraine border. This is alleviating fears of a war on the EU's border and bolstering the single currency.

Moreover, The euro rebounded on Tuesday, nearly erasing all of Monday's losses, while the dollar's losses deepened after reports some Russian troops in areas near Ukraine have started returning to their bases.

Against the greenback, the single currency climbed 0.4per cent to US$1.1354, and within striking distance of Monday's high of US$1.1369, as European stock markets rebounded on the news while bond yields headed higher.

Some troops in Russia's military districts adjacent to Ukraine are returning to their bases after completing drills, Russia's defence ministry said on Tuesday, a move that could de-escalate frictions between Moscow and the West

"Russia's decision to return some troops to their bases following the completion of some military exercises has stoked a relief rally in equities, while weighing on the dollar, gold, and oil," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.

On the other hand, The latest ZEW releases showed the economic outlook in Germany improving in February 'despite growing economic and political uncertainties'. According to ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach, financial market experts expect an economic recovery in H1, while 'more than 50 per cent of the experts now predict that short-term interest rates in the Euro Area will rise in the next six months'. While a notable improvement, today's German reading missed market expectations. The Euro Area reading fell by 0.8 points to 48.6 in the same timeframe.

EURUSD has moved higher on the session, initially boosted by a potential cooling in the Russia/Ukraine crisis, while the ZEW release gave the pair an extra push higher.

Source: dailyfx.com

Elsewhere, The USD/CHF pair seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the mid-European session and was last seen trading in the neutral territory, just below mid-0.9200s.

The pair continued with its struggle to gain any meaningful traction and remained confined in a familiar trading range held over the past one week or so. The USD/CHF pair did get a minor lift during the second half of the trading on Tuesday, though the uptick lacked follow-through buying and ran out of steam near the 0.9270 region.

Fears about a full-blown conflict between Russia and the West over Ukraine receded after the former reportedly said that they are pulling back military troops as some drills have been completed. The headlines led to a dramatic turnaround in the global risk sentiment and undermined traditional safe-haven currencies, including the Swiss franc.

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somrat4030

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Feb- 16, 2022, Currency trading analysis and latest forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


forex trading analysis

Price pressures in the UK continue to increase, according to the latest data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) with core inflation y/y rising to 4.4% in January, an increase of 0.2% from December, while headline inflation rose by 5.5% in the 12 months to January 2022, up from 5.4% last month. This is the highest CPI level since the series began in 1992. The closely watched Consumer Prices including occupier's housing costs (CPIH) rose by 4.9% from 4.8% in December. The CPIH reading is the highest recorded inflation rate since the series began in January 2006.

Retail trader data show 51.05% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.04 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.96% lower than yesterday and 14.88% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.46% higher than yesterday and 5.43% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBP/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

Source: dailyfx.com/forex

On the other hand, EUR/USD capped by 1.1400, looks to FOMC​


EUR/USD failed to extend the weekly rebound further north of the 1.1400 mark midweek, as better-than-expected results from the US docket sponsored a noticeable bounce in the buck.

Indeed, US Retail Sales crushed initial estimates after expanding at a monthly 3.8% in January. Core sales followed suit and rose 3.3% MoM. Earlier data showed Mortgage Applications shrinking 5.4% in the week to February 11 according to MBA.

On the other hand, Of the important macro data, which will also be published today.

It is worth noting the publication at 13:30 (GMT) of information on retail sales in the US and consumer price indices in Canada, which reflect the dynamics of retail prices of the corresponding basket of goods and services. The inflation target for the Bank of Canada is in the range of 1%-3%. The rising CPI is a harbinger of a rate hike and positive for the CAD. The core consumer price index rose in December 2021 by +4.0% (annualized). Data better than previous values will strengthen the Canadian dollar. Forecast for January: +4.6% (annualized) for core CPI and +4.8% (annualized) for CPI. As we can see from the statistics, inflation in Canada is also accelerating, but not as much as, for example, in the United States.

Elsewhere, Today's situation with China's benchmark index encapsulates the trader's dilemma perfectly: should one buy into a more sustainable economy or sell on monetary policy tightening? Today traders opted for a tepid compromise, a muted equity advance.​

But the dilemma is escalating globally and the interplay is even more obvious in the currency space. Consider the euro-yen pair.

Should traders bank on Japan's more robust economic growth, or trade based on the European Central Bank's path to tightening which is more aggressive compared to the Bank of Japan's looser policy?

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somrat4030

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Forex trading and Currency market analysis, Feb-17, 2022, by forex forum.​


forex trading analysis

GBP/USD is testing key levels after better than expected employment data and inflation earlier this week. This adds to the aggressive tightening outlook for the Bank of England (BoE), with markets roughly pricing in six interest rate hikes this year (see table below). Yesterday's FOMC minutes was received by markets in a dovish light - although the minutes are slightly outdated and have seen new data since then (higher US inflation).

Moreover, GBPUSD moves higher but freezes before last week's high​


GBPUSD moved lower in the Asian session and during the 100/200-hour MA test and 50% midpoint of the range for 2022. can be pushed upside down Since then the price has continued to move towards the difference in movement,

In the European session, prices remain below the 61.8% retracement of the 2022 trading 2022 at 1.35987, temporarily masking the pair.

breaking above that level Take the price over and through another swing area near 1.3613 and 1.3618.

Today's high hit 1.3637, short of last week's swing high at 1.36434, it has moved back below 1.3613 to 1.1318.

On the other hand, The Euro fell on the news of unconfirmed reports of mortar fire near the Ukranian border.​


Markets went into a tailspin in the Asian afternoon after a Russian news agency, RIA, reported that Russian-backed separatists are claiming that the Ukraine army fired grenade mortars across the border.

RIA Novosti, sometimes referred to as RIAN or RIA, is a Russian state-owned domestic news agency and is headquartered in Moscow.

This comes after 24 hours of fluctuating tensions around the border. There was an initial ease when Russia declared that they had started moving their troops back to their home bases. But then US intelligence said that was not the case and that there are more troops heading to the area.

Source: dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental

Technical analysis:

Bullish scenario:

*.
The EURUSD pair needs to stay above 1.13500, and with a positive consolidation break above 1.14000, our the previous resistance zone.

*. If the pair breaks above 1.14000, then we get additional support in the MA20, MA50, and MA200 moving average.

*. Our next resistance zone is 1.14850-115200, which we managed to overcome in the previous three attempts.

*. The break above would open the next target at 1.16000, high from November, and after it 1.17000 level.

Bearish scenario:

*.
We need a negative consolidation and withdrawal of EURUSD below moving averages and 1.13500.

*. After that, we are looking for the first support at 1.13000, the support zone from the beginning of the week.

*. A break below this support would direct EURUSD to the previous low from the end of January at 1.11200, and we can look for some inter-support at 1.12500.

Elsewhere, On Thursday, increasing tensions between Russia and Ukraine dampen the market mood, boosting the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese yen vs. the greenback, as depicted by the 60+ pip fall in the USD/JPY. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 114.92.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook​

The USD/JPY is neutral biased, but the breach of the February 14 daily low at 115.00 opened the door for a February 2 daily low test at 114.14, but first, JPY bulls would need to reclaim the 50-day moving average at 114.73.

However, a shift in the market mood could pave the way for a mean reversion move. The USD/JPY first resistance would be 115.00. A clear break would expose the January 28 daily high at 115.68, followed by 116.00 and the YTD high at 116.35.

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Last edited:

somrat4030

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Staff member

Feb-18, 2022, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD Weekly analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


forex trading analysis today

EUR/USD side-lined ahead of next week's Russia-US meeting​


Volatility has been decreasing in the EUR/USD cross over the past couple of days as traders are getting used to the Russia-Ukraine stalemate.

Yesterday EUR/USD bounced off the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and one-month support line at $1.1338 to $1.1323 and today it is so far trading within a tiny 30 tick range. Minor resistance continues to be seen between late November, December, and this week's highs at $1.1382 to $1.1396. It will need to be exceeded for the January and current February highs at $1.1482 to $1.1495 to be back in the picture.

Only slide-through support at $1.1323 could lead to this week's low at $1.1281 and the early January low at $1.1272 being retested.

Source: ig.com/sg/news

The GBPUSD is in an up and down day.​


The GBPUSD moved higher earlier. That move was helped by better than expected retail sales. However the high price today stalled near the high price from last week near 1.3643, and rotated back lower on the USD buying.

If the price can stay below the 1.36034 area, that would be the best case scenario for the sellers with the next major targets coming in at the 100 hour moving average 1.3569 (blue line), and the 200 hour moving average at 1.35609 (green line). The 50% midpoint of the 2022 trading range is just below those levels at 1.35526 and would be a another target on further weakness.

A move back above 1.36034 with momentum would have traders looking again toward 1.3618 to 1.36271 and then the ceiling from last week and this week.

On the other hand, The USD/JPY reversed the curse as the weekend approached amid a mixed market sentiment, driven by Russia/Ukraine headlines crossing the wires, down 0.23% in the week. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 115.00.

The market sentiment is downbeat. Europan indices record losses, while the US equity futures point that Wall Street would open negatively. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index, a gauge of the greenback's value against a basket of its rivals, grinds up 0.13%, sits as 95.920. Contrarily, the US 10-year T-note yield drops three basis points, eyeing to close the week under the 2% threshold, at 1.939%, putting a lid on the USD/JPY.

Moreover, US Existing Home sales rose sharply by 6.7% in January, according to data published by the National Association of Realtors on Friday.​

That took the 12-month rolling number of sales higher to 6.50M from 6.09M in December, above the expected 6.10M. The median price of homes sold was $350.3K, up 15.4% YoY.

Elsewhere, Canadian retail sales beat estimates for the December period (see economic calendar below), while the new housing price index for January ticked slightly higher than previous adding to the inflationary pressure reflected in the CPI data earlier this week. Hawkish pressure on the Bank of Canada (BoC) to raise rates is mounting, giving a positive outlook for the loonie.

This being said, slumping oil prices after Iranian supply talks have minimally impacted CAD as a weaker dollar continues to prevail. Going forward, dollar weakness is likely to subside leaving CAD open to depreciation against the dollar particularly if oil prices correct lower.

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Last edited:

somrat4030

Well-known member
Staff member

Feb-22, 2022, Forex trading and EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/USD analysis and market forecast, by forex forum.​


Currency trading analysis today

EUR/USD prices have remained resilient despite elevated geopolitical risks. As Russia-Ukraine tensions gain traction, the deployment of "peacekeeping forces" to two breakaway areas in Ukraine (the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic aka Donbas region) raised speculation of a probable invasion which continues to drive risk-appetite.

In response to Putin's decision, the UK, US, Japan and the European Union announced their intensions to issue sanctions against Russia which include placing the certification of the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea gas pipeline contract on hold.

EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS​

After rising above trendline resistance turned support earlier this month, EUR/USD bulls managed to drive prices higher before running into a wall of resistance at around 1.1495, the 50% Fibonacci level of the 2020 – 2021 move.

Failure to rise above this level allowed sellers to force EUR/USD back towards the key psychological level of 1.1300 which continues to provide support for the imminent move.

Source: dailyfx.com/forex

On the other hand, The EUR/GBP jumped on Tuesday from two-week lows near 0.8300 to reach 0.8382, the highest level since last Wednesday. During American hours it is pulling back, trading back under 0.8350, after being unable to hold above the 20-day simple moving average (0.8370).

From Ukraine to BoE comments​

The pound weakened earlier on Wednesday following comments from Bank of England deputy governor Dave Ramsden. He said that "some further modest tightening in monetary policy is likely to be appropriate in the coming months". His words were seen as less hawkish compared to his previous comments. A surprise approach considering that the latest economic report from the UK was firm.

A daily close above 0.8370 in EUR/GBP should clear the way for a test of the 0.8400 area that also contains the 55-day SMA. A recovery above should alleviate the bearish pressure. The next resistance stands at 0.8425/30.

On the downside, 0.8330 is again a support level to consider, followed by the 0.8300/05 zone. A consolidation below 0.8300 would point to more losses.

Elsewhere, Looking at the GBP/USD weekly chart, we can see the immediate rebound after a retraction to 1.349 range on Feb. 16, deemed as the support level, and the follow-up rally well into the 1.36 price range, reaching as high as 1.364 on multiple occasions.

It consolidated and kept above the 1.356 level, acting as the temporary support level. It was last found trading at 1.357 price range with overhead resistance found at 1.364 and support level of 1.349.

Today, we could expect a move below the 1.356 support level as it failed to break out from the 1.364 overhead resistance level on multiple occasions. If it manages to hold on to the current level and consolidate above 1.356, we could expect another move towards the 1.364 resistance level.

On the other hand, AUD/USD consolidates below the four-month resistance line at $0.7219​

Last week's rise in AUD/USD is taking a breather with the cross so far remaining below the October-to-February resistance line at $0.7219, a rise above which is needed for the current February spike-high at $0.7248 to be reached. If exceeded, we would favour a bullish extension to the January peak at $0.7314.

Minor support sits between the early February high at $0.7168 and the early January low at $0.713 and more significant support between the August, late December and January lows at $0.7106 to $0.7083. While it underpins, like it did last week, the currency pair remains in a short-term uptrend.

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somrat4030

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Staff member

Feb-23, 2022, EU, US market analysis and currency trading latest forecast, by forex forum.​


currency trading analysis and daily forecast

Thus far a relatively sanguine response in the FX space to the first round of sanctions on Russia. That said, in the short term, market sentiment will continue to change on a whim from headline to headline, staying agile is the prudent approach in this current environment. I remain a longer term bull on the Euro, which can also be expressed via EUR/GBP. EUR/USD continues to hold onto the 1.13 handle with the recent break below failing to inspire in much the way of a follow through. Now while this may be encouraging for Euro bulls, the current geopolitical risks suggest that the currency is not out of the woods yet. Not to mention we are also approaching month-end rebalancing, which may well see similar price action that we saw at the end of last month. So far the S&P 500 is down 4.6% MTD and as the chart below highlights, when the index reports MTD losses of at least 3%, the USD picks up in the last few days of the month, before paring the entirety of the move in the first week of the new month.

EUR/USD​


Going along with that trendless US Dollar has been the mirror image in EUR/USD, and there's been a similar tightening action showing here with price action coiling deeper into compression.

There's a couple of trendlines at-play here and that goes along with existing support and resistance structure. The 1.1374 level remains relevant, and a breach there opens the door for a push up to 1409. On the support side, 1272 remains important, and tests below that open the door for longer-term support from 1187-1212.

On the other hand, The Canadian dollar was trying to strengthen against its US counterpart on Wednesday as global financial markets started off calm in Asia.

However, risk sentiment flipped on its head with investors waiting to see Russian President Vladimir Putin's next move after he sent troops into separatist regions of Ukraine.

The news fell in just after the opening on Wall Street that Ukraine had planned to declare a state of emergency after warnings from the US that Russia will invade within 48hrs. Further reports enhanced the risk-off moves that cited convoys of military equipment moving towards Donetsk in eastern Ukraine from the direction of the Russian Frontier.

Elsewhere, Australian wage growth edged higher in the fourth quarter, rising 2.3% YoY, just shy of the consensus of 2.4%. On a quarterly basis, wages rose 0.7%, matching the forecast. Wages are moving higher, but likely not fast enough to move the needle on the RBA's rate plans. Wage data is keenly monitored by the RBA, which has insisted that inflation will not be sustainable in its target of 2-3% unless wage growth is much higher. With the pace of wage growth lagging behind inflation, which is around 3.5%, the RBA can continue to preach patience, although the markets are more hawkish and have priced in five rate hikes this year.

Source: investing.com

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook​

The AUD/USD retracement from Wednesday's daily highs left a long up-wick depicted by the candle in the daily chart, indicating that traders' book profits and sellers could have opened fresh short bets. A move below February 10 high at 0.7245 could exacerbate a move towards a three-month-old downslope support trendline, around the 0.7180-95 area, but first AUD/USD sellers would need a clear break below 0.7200.

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somrat4030

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Feb-24, 2022, Forex trading daily analysis and Russia Ukraine Crisis forecast.​


currency trading analysis and daily forecast

USD/JPY rises sharply from daily lows around 114.40 to highs 115.30s amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which started on Thursday during the Asian Pacific session. That said, investors' mood dampened as flows through safe-haven peers increased. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 115.39.

During the Asian session, the UN hosted an emergency security council meeting. Around that time, Russian President Putin unveiled a speech announcing a "special military operation" in Ukraine, aiming to de-nazify and de-militarize the country.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook​

The USD/JPY Is upward biased, as shown by the daily chart from a technical perspective. The daily moving averages (DMAs) reside below the spot price, though it faces resistance around 115.52, November 24, 2021, daily high.

Due to geopolitical developments, it is suggested to take a short-term approach amid high volatility levels witnessed in the financial markets. That said, the USD/JPY 1-hour chart has a bullish bias, and USD/JPY would lean towards February 22 daily high at 115.24 as support. If the pair achieves to print a daily close above it, a move towards the 116.00 figure and YTD high at the 116.30 area is on the cards.

Source: fxstreet.com/news/

Elsewhere, The Russian central bank beefed up the banking sector with extra liquidity and started to sell foreign currency on the forex market after the rouble fell to all-time lows on the day Moscow sent its troops into Ukraine.​


Additional reporting by Andrey Ostroukh, Oksana Kobzeva, Dmitry Antonov, Darya Korsunskaya, Alexander Marrow and Olesya Astakhova Writing by Katya Golubkova Editing by Kim Coghill, Kenneth Maxwell, Emelia Sithole-Matarise and Nick Macfie

Moreover, The Russian rouble tumbled to a record low and European currencies including the euro bore the brunt of selling on Thursday after Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine, sparking dramatic moves across foreign exchange markets.

Investors dashed for safe-haven currencies including the dollar, which jumped 0.9%, as well as the Swiss franc and Japanese yen.

Aside from the rouble, it was the currencies of European countries such the Swedish crown, Hungarian forint and Polish zloty that were hammered the most - all losing more than 1% as traders braced for the fallout from a war in Europe's east and more Western sanctions on Russian assets.

The rouble weakened to as low as 89.98 per dollar before recovering some of those losses. The U.S. currency was last up nearly 4% against the Russian currency.

The euro fell as much as 1.2% to $1.1164, the lowest level since Jan. 31.​

The Swiss franc, a currency investors buy when they are nervous, soared to its highest since 2015 versus the euro at 1.0292 before falling back. The euro was last down 0.6% at 1.0314 francs.

On the other hand, The pound collapsed against the US dollar during the Asian session due to Russia's military actions on the territory of Ukraine. The escalation of the conflict has moved into the armed stage, which greatly affects risky assets. So far, there is no need to talk about any fundamental background, since all attention will be on the further actions of the Russian authorities and retaliatory measures by the EU and the United States. A report on retail sales in the UK is coming out today, but it is unlikely to support the pound even if it happens that sales will be much higher than economists' forecasts. In normal times, this would be a powerful bullish signal, especially in the context of the Bank of England's current struggle with high inflation.

It is important to protect the support of 1.3477 during the European session, to which the pound will probably collapse today, even despite the good retail sales data. Bailey's speeches in the first half of the day may limit the pair's downward potential, which will allow the pound to remain within a wide horizontal channel. You can consider long positions from 1.3477 only after forming a false breakout there, which will lead to a wave of growth in the resistance area of 1.3513, formed by today's results. A breakthrough and a test of this range from top to bottom, by analogy with yesterday, creates another buy signal with the pair recovering to today's high at 1.3542. A more distant target will be the 1.3570 area, where the moving averages are playing on the bears' side. I recommend taking profits there. In case GBP/USD falls during the European session and the bulls are not active at 1.3477, it is best not to rush with long positions, since the intensification of the military conflict will not end well. The nearest support in this case will be the 1.3446 area. Forming a false breakout there will provide an entry point to long positions. You can buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.3407, or even lower - from a low of 1.3384, counting on a correction of 20-25 points within the day.

Source: instaforex.com

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somrat4030

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Feb-28, 2022, Currency market technical analysis and Russia Ukraine crisis forecast, by forex forum.​


Currency trading analysis today

On Monday, the single currency began the week with a gap down from Friday's close at 1.1273, to 1.1122 open, on harsh sanctions imposed on Russia, from the US, Eurozone, UK's and Canada, among other countries. Market participant's reaction augmented demand for safe-haven assets. In the FX space, the USD, JPY, and CHF witnessed ebbs towards them, while the EUR began on the wrong foot, though late developments have seen the pair climbing. At press time, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1224.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook​

The EUR/USD daily chart shows that the pair is downward biased. Why? The daily moving averages (DMAs) reside above the spot price, aiming lower, indicating that the downtrend might accelerate in the near term. Nevertheless, Monday's gap down increased buying pressure on the pair, but as long as Ukraine – Russia's war does not stop, the EUR/USD would be subject to market mood swings unless a peace agreement is reached.

Therefore, the EUR/USD would remain downwards. The pair's first support would be 1.1200. Breach of the latter would expose the 2021 November 24 pivot low at 1.1186, followed by February 24 YTD low at 1.1106.

EUR/USD price is currently trading at 1.1197. The 1.1185 and then 1.11659 levels are the next downside targets, followed by the low for the day at 1.11414. The low last week reached 1.11056. That low took out the low from January 28th and took the price to the lowest level since May/June 2020.

Source: fxstreet.com/news

On the other hand, Russia conflict that escalated on Saturday, amid Western countries imposing stringent sanctions to Russia, to some of its government officials, and to Russian oligarchs linked to the Vladimir Putin regime. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 115.07.

In the meantime, US Treasury yields closely correlated to USD/JPY price action behavior fall. The US 10-year benchmark note falls eleven basis points, from 1.927% to 1.873%, a headwind for the USD/JPY. The greenback, sought as a safe-haven asset, rises as portrayed by the US Dollar Index, which measures the buck's value vs. a basket of rivals, sits at 96.81, up 0.20%.

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USD/JPY pair registered only a false breakout above the upper median line (UML) signaling that the leg higher is over. The aggressive breakdown below the median line (ml) signaled a potential sell-off.

Now, it challenges the weekly pivot point of 115.22. As long as it stays above it may announce that the USD/JPY pair could try to come back to test and retest the upper median line (UML) again.

USD/JPY Prediction!​

A larger downside movement could be announced by a valid breakdown below the 115.01 and through the lower median line (lml) of the ascending pitchfork.

Staying above the 115.22 weekly pivot point and within the ascending pitchfork followed by a valid breakout above the upper median line (UML) could bring new long opportunities.

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somrat4030

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March-01, 2022, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD Technical analysis and market forecast, by forex forum.​


currency trading daily analysis and updates

The US Dollar continues to move as a combination of strong US data and safe-haven flows have boosted the currency. While US rates continue to fall in a move clearly showing investors and funds driving into Treasuries, the US Dollar has started to show signs of breaking out of the impasse that I looked at last Wednesday. Bulls forced a topside break on Thursday and soon ran into a key Fibonacci level at 97.72, which remains of issue today.

EUR/USD FALLS TO FRESH LOW​

Going along with that rush of USD-strength has been EUR/USD weakness, with the pair closing in on a fresh 20-month-low as of this writing. I'm anticipating that this low will be set by the time you read this, so I'm going to draw this up as if the pair had just touched down to a fresh low.

Chasing such matters can be dangerous as the pair has already fallen by more than 150 pips over the past two days. And given the severity of the situation, there certainly is a chance that the breakout continues to go down, with prices falling further to fresh lows.

But as a rule I don't chase markets and this is no different. So, there's two rational ways to move forward if chasing is out of the equation, and the first is likely unsavory to those experiencing FOMO but it's to wait for prices to pullback. The prior support zone of 1.1187-1.1212 remains of interest for such themes.

Source: dailyfx.com/forex

On the other hand, UK and US released Manufacturing PMI data​


On Tuesday, during the European session, the UK economic docket featured the IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI for February, expected at 57.3, came at 58, higher than January's. Across the pond, the US economic docket featured the first tranche of data in the week. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for February rose to 58.6, higher than the 58 estimated by analysts. ISM's new orders advanced close to four months, reaching a five-month high of 61.7.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook​
The GBP/USD is downward biased. Price action in the last two months. Once the GBP/USD pierced the 200-DMA at 1.3733, cable began trending down, with two successive series of lower-highs and lower lows. Sterling gains on February 28 almost reversed entirely, and if GBP/USD bears achieve a daily close below February 28 low at 1.3307, it will exacerbate a move towards December 8, 2021 low at 1.3160.

That said, the GBP/USD first support level would be 1.3300. Breach of the latter would expose November 26, 2021, resistance-turned-support high at 1.3275, followed by 1.3200 and December 8, 2021 low at 1.3160.

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AUD/USD Analysis today:

While the US Dollar is strong, so are commodities, and commodity currencies remain fairly strong as well. I've been following the long side of AUD/USD and the pair has now put in four consecutive weekly gains while working on a fifth.

Perhaps more importantly, however, has been how well the pair has held up after a breach of the falling wedge formation that based off of the .7000 psychological level . This can keep the pair as somewhat enticing to the upside.

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somrat4030

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Mar-02, 2022, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY technical analysis and forecast, by forex forum.​


currency trading analysis and daily forecast

The US Treasury yields rally underpins the USD/JPY as it gains close to 0.70%.​


Market mood improvement, spurred by reports of another round of talks between Russia-Ukraine, and higher US Treasury yields benefited the greenback. The USD/JPY rallies for the first time in the week, up some 0.70% in the day, trading at 115.63 at the time of writing.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook​


After recording a low at 114.78, the USD/JPY has climbed steadily since the beginning of Wednesday's Asian session. In the last three hours, it dipped from the R2 daily pivot at 115.63 to Tuesday's high at 115.28 before resuming the uptrend, as USD/JPY bulls prepare an attack of the YTD high at 116.35.

The USD/JPY is upward biased, as depicted by two factors. Firstly, the daily moving averages (DMAs) reside below the spot price, and second, a potential double-bottom pattern in the daily chart. That said, the USD/JPY first resistance level would be the neckline around 115.78.

Source: fxstreet.com/news

On the other hand, EUR/USD prices have continued to decline as tensions between Russia and Ukraine remains at the forefront of sentiment.

EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS​

EUR/USD has continued to falter as geopolitical tensions support the safe-haven Dollar.

Although the downward trajectory (from the June 2021 high) is currently intact, price action remains encapsulated between key Fibonacci levels of both the historical moves of prominence. After falling below psychological support at 1.200, bears managed to maintain dominance over the primary trend, allowing them to drive prices towards the 76.4% Fibonacci level of the 2020 – 2021 move, currently providing support at around 1.103.

As price action remains below the 50-day MA (moving average), the key psychological level of 1.100 remains as a key psychological level which will likely continue to hold bears at bay. Meanwhile, the CCI (commodity channel index) remains in negative territory, a possible indication that the pair may be oversold.

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Elsewhere, GBP/USD briefly hovered below 1.3300 amid cautious market sentiment. The US dollar initially strengthened with market sentiment still being dominated by worries over global economic growth because the Russia-Ukraine war had created a rally in crude oil prices.

But the diminishing likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates by 50 bps in March has made the US dollar weaker. With recent geopolitical developments, investors seem confident that the Fed will refrain from pursuing a more aggressive monetary policy in combating persistently high inflation. This made GBP/USD manage to climb above 1.3300 around 1.3352.

After another failed upside attempt on Monday, GBP/USD had lost 0.7% of its traction on Tuesday before finally extending its decline on Wednesday morning.

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somrat4030

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Mar-03, 2022, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY technical analysis and currency market forecast, by forex forum.​


Currency trading updates

Over recent weeks, the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), Japanese Yen (JPY) and Swiss Franc (CHF) have remained resilient against their major counterparts as the war between Russia and Ukraine remains at the forefront of risk-sentiment.

USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS​

USD/JPY price action is currently trading in a well-defined range, formed by key Fibonacci levels from historical moves of prominence. Although the upward trajectory has remained intact (Since Sep 2021), a break below the rising wedge allowed bears to temporarily drive prices lower before finding support at around 113.492.

Since then, bulls have managed to drive price action back towards the lower bound of the wedge which is currently holding as resistance at around 116.265.

On the other hand, The USD/CAD edges higher on Thursday, although it remains trapped between the 50 and 100-day moving averages (DMAs) after a steeper loss on Wednesday after the Bank of Canada (BoC) hiked 25 basis points to its Bank Rate to 0.50%. At the time of writing, the USD/CAD is trading at 1.2661, 40 pips short of the 1.2700 mark.

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Technical outlook​

The USD/CAD bias is neutral, but it could be neutral-downwards. Why? Because on March 2, the pair recorded a daily close below February 10 low at 1.2632, breaking the previous market structure; nevertheless, on Thursday, the USD/CAD recovered but is struggling to break above the 50-DMA at 1.2680.

USD/CAD's failure at the 50-DMA would allow further losses. The pair's first support would be the confluence of the 100-DMA and February 10 daily low in the 1.2632-40 area. Breach of the latter would expose March 3 daily low at 1.2587, followed by the 200-DMA at 1.2567, and ultimately it would reach January 19 low at 1.2450.

Elsewhere, EURUSD check low pattern line​
The EURUSD has moved to a brand new session low and within the course of has taken out double backside from yesterday close to 1.1056.

The value has moved down to check a downward sloping trendline connecting latest lows on the hourly chart. That stage at present is available in at 1.1039. The low value simply attain 1.10369 and has bounced. The present costs buying and selling at 1.1049.

Merchants will now watch the lows from yesterday close to 1.1057 as shut intraday threat. Keep under, and the sellers stay in agency management, and extra draw back momentum may be anticipated.

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On the other hand, In the midst of forex trading in the European session on Thursday (3/3/2022), the position of the pound sterling in the GBPUSD pair is being corrected towards the daily support range. The pound depreciated below $1.34, not far from a ten-week low of $1,327 hit on March 2, as investors hunted for safe havens amid escalating conflict in Ukraine.

Russian troops are reportedly closing in on Kyiv, with Ukrainian troops holding the line just a few kilometers away from the center of the capital, while the main port city of Mariupol is reportedly surrounded by invading forces.

Meanwhile from the UK economic report, the IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI was revised lower to 60.5 in February 2022, from an initial reading of 60.8 but well above 54.1 the previous month. Likewise for the IHS Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI data lower to 59.9 in February 2022, from an initial estimate of 60.2 but well above the 54.2 late the previous month.

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somrat4030

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Mar-04, 2022, EUR/USD, GBP/USD trading analysis and US job market data updates, by forex forum.​


US job news

Weekly close above 1.10 may slightly take the edge off the euro's sharp losses of late.​


"With no end in sight to the war in Ukraine and more event shocks ahead (like the nuclear power plant yesterday), the EUR is at risk of losses to 1.08 in the short run."

"EUR/USD now faces limited support markers until psychological floors in the 1.09 and 1.08 zones."

"A weekly close above the figure may slightly take the edge off the currency's sharp losses of late, but upward momentum remains limited and there are no clear signs of a reversal being in the works."

Moreover, Energy prices will hurt growth in the euro area more than in the US.​


"The repercussions for energy prices are most severe in Europe due to its energy dependency on imports. The US is in comparison energy self-reliant and a net petroleum exporter. It is also worth noting that European households spend a higher proportion of their income on heating/gas/electricity compared to American households. Hence, the economic ramifications will be more pronounced for the European economies than in the US."

On the other hand, Non-farm Payrolls was released this morning to the tune of +678k . This is the final NFP release ahead of the March FOMC rate decision where the bank is expected to hike rates for the first time since 2018. But, perhaps more importantly, this would be the first step towards paring back some of the outsized accommodation that had been set since the onset of Covid.

Jobs data has remained in focus as this has been the Fed's pressure point for liftoff. Inflation raged throughout last year but the bank continually avoided any element of tightening for fear of choking off the labor market recovery.

Overall, the job gains continue to show strong growth with the unemployment rate falling as well toward full employment. However, the wage data was contained with earnings on the month virtually flat and the YoY declining to 5.1% from 5.5%.

*. EURUSD is continuing to trade near session lows
*. GBPUSD is also trading lower (higher USD).
*. Dow -234 point.
*. S&P -28 points
*.NASDAQ -80 points

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Elsewhere, The GBP/USD pair continued lowing ground through the early North American session and weakened further below mid-1.3200s in reaction to an upbeat US monthly jobs report. The pair was last seen trading around the 1.3240-1.3235 region, down nearly 0.80% for the day.

The pair added to the overnight losses and continued falling for the second successive day on Friday amid a blowout US dollar rally, bolstered by the global flight to safety. The Russian attack on Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant - the largest of its kind in Europe - raised fears of an environmental catastrophe. This, in turn, unnerved investors and boosted demand for traditional safe-haven assets.

Source: fxstreet.com/news

On the other hand, The U.S. economy created far more jobs in February than expected, picking up steam again after a brief soft patch due to the winter wave of Covid-19.​

The Labor Department said 678,000 nonfarm jobs were created in the month through mid-February, nearly 70% more than the 400,000 consensus forecast. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8% from 4.0% as a result and now stands at its lowest since the start of the pandemic.

However, wage growth decelerated, partially easing the pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy. Average hourly earnings growth slowed to 5.1% on the year from a downwardly revised 5.5% in January. Expectations had been for an acceleration to 5.8%. Average hourly earnings tend to be highly influenced by developments in lower-paying service sector jobs.

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Mar-07, 2022, US dollar technical analysis and currency market forecast, by forex forum.​


The US Dollar remains in the midst of what's been an explosive breakout. While the move started last year as driven by inflation and the prospect of higher rates, fear has entered the equation more recently. But, inflation hasn't went away and this may actually become more problematic later in the year given the inclines seen in commodities like Nickel or Wheat – inputs that will invariably impact the direct costs of many products included in the CPI basket, not to mention the moves already showing in oil.

I had looked into the bullish technical backdrop around the US Dollar last Thursday, ahead of Non-farm Payrolls, as prices had built into yet another ascending triangle formation, which is often approached with the aim of bullish breakouts.

EUR/USD FALLING KNIFE​

EUR/USD plummeted on the open this week to continue last week's move. There's been a bit of a bounce so far this morning after prices pushed down to another fresh yearly low to start to the week. But the damage last week was dramatic and this loads the deck for this week. The below monthly chart shows the significance of the area that was just traded through in EUR/USD, including a trendline that's held the lows for the lifetime of the single currency, which was confluent with the 1.1000 level when it was breached last week.


On the other hand, USD/JPY moved back towards 115.50 on Monday as US yields and commodity prices rose, favouring the buck over the yen.​


As US yields rise to reflect the inflationary impulse of the recent commodity price rally and as FX markets continue to favour the currencies of countries that are net commodity exporters, the US dollar is ruling the roost. Though JPY is by no means one of the worse performing G10 currencies amid a safe-haven bid triggered by underperformance in global equities, its vulnerability as a net commodity/energy importer in the current environment means USD/JPY is advancing.

Traders won't be reading too much into Monday's intra-day price action for USD/JPY. Unlike other USD majors (like GBP/USD and EUR/USD), USD/JPY did not breach any key levels. Rather, the pair has remained well within the bounds of the 114.50-115.80ish range that has prevailed for the last slightly more than three weeks.

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Ahead, as the war in Ukraine rumbles on and the risk that it escalates into a broader European conflict escalates, both USD and JPY are likely to remain in demand versus most G10 pairs. But the backdrop of elevated and potentially still rising commodity prices, plus a Fed that seems (for now) intent on raising rates at least back to neutral, suggests the dollar may be the more attractive safe-haven of the two. Perhaps that means that in the coming weeks, USD/JPY can move back to challenge annual highs in the 116.30s.

Source: fxstreet.com/news

Elsewhere, USDCAD Snapshot: open 1.2722-26, overnight range-1.2688-1.2755, close 1.2729, WTI open $122.71, Gold open $2,001.59​

The Canadian dollar drifted aimlessly overnight despite soaring oil prices and renewed risk-aversion trading in other G-10 currencies.

The US is considering a bi-partisan bill to ban imports of Russian oil and there is talk that the rest of the Western nations including the European Union may follow suit. Politicians are outraged by reports the Russian military is targeting civilians.

Moreover, GBPUSD is just above the middle of its 1.3143-1.3244 overnight range. GBPUSD, like the rest of the G-10 majors is weighed down by fears a major global economic slowdown due to higher oil prices and contagion from Russian sanctions.

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Mar-08, 2022, Currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


Daily currency trading analysis

USDJPY Test Swing High​


USDJPY moved above the 200/100 hour moving average yesterday. and in this process Almost reverted all the declines from Friday trading ( see post here from yesterday ). After breaking through the moving average, the price can "hold" above the moving average even though the 200-hour MA at The lower will be tested near yesterday's close.

Prices in the European/London session saw a steady rally. However, the highs stalled near the bottom of the higher swing area between 115.786 and 115.867 (see the red numbered circle and the yellow area at above) below that area, maintain the price in the "red box" limit pair for the past 17 days between 114.40 and 115.87 (147 pips).

Moreover, With the beginning of this week's trading, the price of the USD/JPY currency pair attempted to recover, stable around the 115.47 resistance level, after selling operations that moved the pair towards the 114.65 support level at the end of last week's trading. But these gains may collide with the continued aversion of investors to risk in light of the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which casts doubt on the future recovery of the global economy.

US stocks fell to their lowest levels amid mounting concern about rising energy costs as investors assessed the impact of the rise in commodity prices on inflation and economic growth. The US dollar extended its gains, while Treasury yields fell from session highs.

On the other hand, The GBP EUR exchange rate spiked to new yearly highs on Monday as investors grow fearful over European markets. Europe's dependence on Russian gas is a key issue and commodity prices also spiked again with gold at $2,000 and Brent crude oil surging above $135 per barrel.

GBP/USD's decline is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside.

Current down trend from 1.4248 is still in progress. Firm break of 61.8% projection of 1.4248 to 1.3158 from 1.3748 at 1.3074 will target 100% projection at 1.2658. On the upside, break of 1.3270 support turned resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

Moreover, Current development suggests that the up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) has completed at 1.4248. Decline from 1.4248 could still be a corrective move, or it could be the start of a long term down trend. In either case, deeper decline would now be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.2493. In case, break of 1.3748 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming, or outlook will stay bearish.

Elsewhere, Yesterday's threat of oil sanctions on Russia pushed the Euro deeper into weakening territory supported by an ever diverging Federal Reserve and ECB.​

The Euro zone is geographically disadvantaged relative to the U.S. which seems obvious but is important to point on from a financial markets perspective where U.S. assets are generally less effected by the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Many countries within the Euro zone has been on a drive to rid themselves of fossil fuels which have left them severely exposed under the current circumstance.

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The threat to the long-term symmetrical triangle on the EUR/USD weekly chart may be ready to breakout. This weeks weekly candle has breached triangle support (black) with price action showing a fight back by bulls as evident from the lower long wick. A candle close below the support zone could spell disaster for the Euro as it may point to further downside.

Source: dailyfx.com/forex

Bullish divergence (green) is apparent on the RSI momentum indicator suggestive of impending upside however, under normal circumstances this signal is vague in terms of time frame and with the current market turmoil it points to further ambiguity.

Resistance levels:

1.1150
1.1000
Triangle support

Support levels:

1.0636

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somrat4030

Well-known member
Staff member

Mar-09, 2022, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Technical analysis and market forecast, By forex forum.​


Daily currency analysis

EUR/USD is higher by 1.63% at the time of writing after rallying from a low of 1.0890 to print a high of 1.1091. Markets react to the hopes for a shift toward a solution and Ukraine and the single currency is making their advance ahead of this week's central bank meeting. The euro is also supported by reports that the European Union was discussing joint bond issuance to finance energy and defence spending.

There are hints this week that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may be tentatively opening themselves to compromises that might halt the 12-day-old war. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank meets on Thursday but amid the spectre of stagflation, money markets expected policymakers to delay rate hikes until late in the year.

Moreover, The EURJPY has seen a strong bounce over the last few days, that came after a stronger move to the downside last week that saw the pair move below the December 2021 low at 127.348. That level was the lowest level since February 2021.​


The fall below took the price all the way down to 124.384 which was just above the 50% midpoint of the move up from the May 2020 low at 124.250. Staying above the 50% gave something for the buyers to lean against.

Source: dailyfx.com/forex

On the other hand, GBP/USD Client Sentiment Data Signals a Bearish Outlook​


Data shows 73.46% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.77 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 1.64% higher than yesterday and 9.33% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 12.70% lower than yesterday and 23.22% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall.

Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBP/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

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Elsewhere, The USD/JPY pair is trading at the 115.79 level while writing.​
It retreated after reaching the 115.92 level in yesterday's session. Technically, the correction is natural after an amazing rally. The currency pair could test the immediate support levels before resuming its uptrend. The price slipped lower as the Dollar Index pared gains. Still, the Yen is bearish in the short term as the Japanese Yen futures plunged.

Fundamentally, the Japanese economic data came mixed again today. The Final GDP registered only a 1.1% growth versus 1.4% expected, the M2 Money Stock rose by 3.6%, beating the 3.5% estimates, while the Final GDP Price Index fell by 1.3%, matching expectations. In addition, the Prelim Machine Tool Orders were reported at 31.6% versus 61.4% in the previous reporting period.

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somrat4030

Well-known member
Staff member

Mar-10, 2022, Forex trading daily analysis and latest Currency market forecast, By Forex Forum.​


Forex trading daily analysis

EUR/USD fades the spike to the 1.1120 region​


Following the earlier advance to multi-day peaks in the 1.1120/25 band, EUR/USD came under some selling pressure and now revisits the key support at 1.1000 the figure.

Indeed, EUR/USD shed further ground after Chief Lagarde suggested inflation in the region is seen considerably higher in the short-term horizon, adding that longer-term inflation expectations are now re-anchored at the target level. Consumer prices, however, are seen declining in all scenarios, Lagarde added.

Regarding the normalization of the monetary conditions, Lagarde ruled out any acceleration of the process, favouring instead a gradual approach.

In the US, in the meantime, inflation tracked by the CPI rose in line with expectations at 7.9% YoY in February, while Core CPI rose 6.4% from a year earlier.

On the other hand, The USDJPY, the pair is currently retesting the high price from earlier in the day near 116.18.

That is also near swing highs going back to early January and early February at the same level.

The 116.188 level is a lower high ahead of the extreme highs from 2022 which came in at 116.33 area. There is a double top at that double top from January 4 and February 10.

Looking at the hourly chart, the area between 115.786 and 115.867 stalled the falls today in the Asian and London morning session. That area will continue to be a support level going forward. If broken, however, the short term bearish bias would increase with traders looking toward 115.685 (swing level), 115.597 (broken 61.8% retracement), and the rising 100 hour moving average (blue line) at 115.53 as downside targets.

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AUD/USD Analysis​

This currency pair has not been at the forefront of the Forex market, which since the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been focused on European currencies and safe havens. However, the Australian Dollar continues to act as a risk barometer and the price here has followed risk sentiment, which seems to be improving as it becomes clearer that Ukraine may be able to hold off Russia which could result in some kind of peace deal – this seems to be becoming a more probable outcome and peace talks are underway, although it is far from clear they will succeed.

Technically, we see new support at 0.7288 which has acted to push up the price, and there are no key resistance levels ahead until 0.7390 which means the price has considerable room to rise. However, bulls should be careful near the half number at 0.7350 which may be inflective and act as minor resistance.

Source: dailyforex.com/forex

Elsewhere, British Pound Forecast (GBPUSD) Sterling Helpless in The Face of US Dollar Dominance

Yesterday's US dollar sell-off may be reversed later today when we get the latest US inflation report with market talk that the headline figure may be in excess of 8%. White House press secretary Jen Psaki yesterday warned of higher headline inflation with last month's print of 7.5% expected to be broken with ease. US inflation currently stands at a 40-year high.

The daily GBPUSD chart shows a cluster of prior lows pierced earlier this week before a bout of US dollar weakness yesterday allowed cable to regain 1.3100. Today's partial fade of that move does not instil much confidence in GBPUSD, especially with the US inflation release on tap. Cable has erased its extremely oversold reading (CCI) but needs a period of consolidation if it is to move higher. Monthly UK GDP data is released tomorrow and a strong reading may well help to underpin cable at current levels ahead of next week's Bank of England MPC decision.

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somrat4030

Well-known member
Staff member

Mar-11, 2022, Currency Trading weekly Analysis and Market Forecast, By Forex Forum.​


Daily trading analysis

EUR/GBP Analysis Today​


EUR/GBP has stabilised on Friday just to the south of the 0.8400 level as traders mull how the Ukraine war and related global economic impact effects the UK/EU economic outlook, as well as the outlook for BoE/ECB policy. Speaking of, after Thursday's more hawkish than expected shift in the ECB's QE policy (towards ending net purchases in Q3 despite Ukraine uncertainties), EUR/GBP rallied to one-month highs in the 0.8430s, but these gains were short-lived. The pair has since dropped back to the 0.8375 area, down about 0.7% from Thursday's peaks, with about 0.2% of that drop coming on Friday, with better-than-expected UK January GDP figures likely weighing a tad.

That still leaves the pair about 2.0% higher versus earlier weekly lows in the 0.8200 area (printed on Monday). The reason for the euro's better relative performance this week isnt quite clear. The general pullback in energy (and other major commodity) prices from earlier weekly highs probably helped ease stagflation fears which have been felt more acutely in the Eurozone versus the UK.

Source: fxstreet.com/news

On the other hand, YEN WEAKNESS AND OIL DEPENDENCY FAVORS USD/JPY BREAKOUT.​


The Japanese Yen has been a rather frustrating pair to watch due to its tendency to trade in a sideways manner since the invasion of Ukraine. Typically, in times of geopolitical uncertainty, the Japanese Yen appreciates in line with its 'safe-haven' appeal, but not this time.

Japanese Yen crosses have largely benefitted from a recent depreciation in the Asian currency as it sees its trade balance continue to struggle. The value of Japanese imports have outpaced exports since August last year apart from November when it temporarily recovered above zero.

USD/JPY The daily chart shows the strong triangle breakout to the upside. Further bullish price action would bring the 117.95 and 118.00 levels into focus as resistance (trendline resistance) and 118.60 (2017 yearly high) thereafter. Oversold conditions on the RSI saw a sizeable pullback at the start of this year, however, the indicator has not yet risen to such levels meaning there may still be some room to the upside before a reasonable pullback could appear.

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Elsewhere, The GBPUSD is trading to a new low going back to November 2020 extending below the earlier low at 1.3050 in the process.​

The low just reached 1.30415. The road to the downside today was paved when the pair stalled against its 100 hour moving average on the corrective move higher. Moving back below a swing area between 1.3080 and 1.30878, gave the sellers more ammunition to push lower. The price is now breaking through the earlier session low at adding to the negative bias.

It would take a move back above the 1.30878 level to give the buyers some hope. However, until the price can trade above the 100 hour moving average currently at 1.3122, and stay above that moving average, the sellers are still more in control. PS the price not traded above its 200 hour moving average at 1.3217 cents February 23. The price trended from 1.3576 to 1.3041 or 535 pips on that move. The trend is not over until it's over. Getting above the 100 hour moving average is step number one.

USD/EUR (USDEUR) Range

About USD/EUR's daily highs and lows, it's 1.645% up from its trailing 24 hours low of $0.90 and 0.417% up from its trailing 24 hours high of $0.91.

USD/EUR's yearly highs and lows, it's 12.169% up from its 52-week low and 1.167% down from its 52-week high.

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