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Forex Forum EUR, USD, JPY, GBP, CAD, AUD Market Analysis and Daily Forecast

somrat4030

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April-26, 2022, Currency trading daily analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


The U.S. Dollar Index extended gains on Tuesday and reached fresh two-year highs above the 102.00 level.

The greenback continues to strengthen across the board amid risk aversion and geopolitical concerns, along with prospects of a more aggressive tightening move by the Federal Reserve next week. Analysts expect a 50 bps rate hike on May 4, especially after Chair Jerome Powell noted that he believed it is appropriate to move faster.

On the other hand, the 101.00 area stands as the initial support level in case of corrections, followed by the 20-day SMA at the 100.10 zone. Loss of this latter could delay further gains exposing the 99.50 area. However, the dominant trend would remain tilted to the upside as long as the DXY holds above the ascending trendline from May 2021 lows, currently around 96.85.

On the other hand, EUR/USD remains downside for 100% forecast at 1.1494 to 1.0805 from 1.1184 at 1.0495. Firm break will pave the way to projection of 161.8% at 1.0069. Conversely, slight resistance. Above 1.0756 will neutralize the intraday bias first. But the trend will remain bearish as long as the resistance is at 1.0935 in case of recovery.

MAJOR RISK EVENTS IN THE WEEK AHEAD​

On Thursday the advance GPD figure for the US is due, already showing a much lower expectation compared to the previous figure.

We then see both EU and US inflation data which isn’t anticipated to change the current narrative if we see prints in line or exceeding expectations, however, we could see a temporary drop in the dollar basket (DXY) should US inflation figures come well below expectations due to the fact that markets have priced in aggressively higher rate hikes throughout the rest of the year. Therefore, a downward surprise could result in a repricing of the dollar as markets taper rate hike expectations.

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Elsewhere, Pound among worst performers

The pound is under pressure amid risk aversion. EUR/GBP trades at 0.8440, at the highest in three weeks, GBP/JPY bottomed at 160.40 (is down almost 300 pips for the day), and AUD/GBP is losing a hundred pips, reversing sharply from the monthly high it reached on Monday at 1.7885.

In Wall Street, the Dow Jones is falling by 1.46% and the Nasdaq tumbles by 3.10%. In Europe, the main stock indices are down 0.75% on average. Investors await earnings reports from Microsoft and Alphabet.

Moreover, The GBP/USD is falling for the fourth consecutive day, accumulating a decline of more than 400 pips. Technical indicators are in oversold territory but no signs of a consolidation or a correction are seen.

The negative momentum in cable remains intact. The next resistance might be seen around 1.2600, followed by 1.2580. On the upside, resistance levels are seen at 1.2665, followed by 1.2700 and 1.2770.

AUD/USD technical analysis


The AUDUSD move lower yesterday and in the process, took out the March 2022 low at 0.7165. The low price extended to 0.7134 in choppy trading around that old low level, but by the close was trading back above. In the early Asian session, the price continued its move to the upside help by news of PBOC vowing more support for the economy. However after the price reached a swing area between 0.7227 or 0.72348, the buyers turned sellers in the price has stepped lower since then.

The last two hourly bars have seen the AUDUSD price move back below the March 15 low at 0.7165. Stay below keeps the bears firmly in control.

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somrat4030

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April-27, 2022, Currency market latest forecast, by forex forum.​


Trading analysis

The US Dollar may sharply rise in the week ahead as market-wide risk aversion grips investors amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and hawkish comments from the Fed. The anti-risk Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc may also get a push higher, though the Greenback’s unparalleled liquidity may give it an edge over its counterparts.

US, EUROZONE CPI AND GDP DATA​

Upcoming Eurozone CPI and GDP data could rattle the Euro and exacerbate its losses against the US Dollar if the outcomes convince traders that the ECB may have to reconsider its rate hike plans. Last week, the Euro plunged after central bank President Christine Lagarde said monetary authorities may need to cut the growth outlook as a result of the fallout from the Ukraine war.

Combined with the Fed’s hawkish comments, this saw EUR/USD plunge as money markets increased their bets of ultra-aggressive rate hikes in 2022. US GDP and personal income/spending data will be published this week, and may exacerbate the pair’s volatility if the figures reinforce the Fed’s hawkish outlook.

EUR/USD Technical analysis

EUR/USD is trading at new lows below 1.0620 today after falling notably on the news that Russia has cut gas supplies to Poland. Energy risks are set to hurt EUR further, economists at MUFG Bank report.

Next downside target is early 2017 low of 1.0341
“A wider cut off of supply could see gas prices double from yesterday’s close to around EUR 200 MWh. A wider cut-off would have a significant negative impact on sentiment and would have further negative consequences for the euro.”

In the meantime, the U.S. dollar index, which measures its performance against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.3% to 102.6, after touching its highest since the early days of the pandemic.

Also supporting the dollar index, traders wager that rates are going up faster in the United States than any other major economy.

"The U.S. dollar benefits from the prospect of an ongoing flight to safety liquidity bid," Jeremy Stretch, head of G10 FX strategy at CIBC, said.

"The U.S. looks set to be less impacted than others, notably Europe and Japan, from the energy price spike. As a consequence of the latter, the Fed remains the most hawkish central bank and the dollar remains well supported, even if it remains rather overbought", he added.

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On the other hand, The pound’s recent demise entered new depths on Tuesday after it sunk into the 1.26 range against a broadly firm dollar for the first time since July 2020.​


Concerns about Britain’s economic outlook deepened following the release of government debt numbers and mounting fears that Covid-19 restrictions in China will dent the global economy.

Data from the Office for National Statistics showed that British government borrowing during the 2021/22 financial year was almost 20% higher than the consensus.

The figures highlighted the challenge facing chancellor Rishi Sunak, who is under pressure to offer fresh financial support to households and businesses hit by sky-high inflation, despite the amount of new debt held by the government.

Technical analysis

At the time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at $1.2545, down 0.3% from today’s opening levels.

Elsewhere, The Australian currency is weakening against the yen, pound, and euro but is strengthening against the U.S. dollar.

The prices are under pressure amid new coronavirus restrictions lockdowns in China. Possible blockage of Beijing causes fears in the market that the country will significantly reduce the consumption of raw materials and energy resources, including iron ore and coal, supplied from Australia. Finally, the Australian dollar is facing uncertainty because of the upcoming parliamentary elections, which could well lead to a change of power. According to polls, Scott Morrison’s ruling coalition is currently far behind the opposition, even though the Prime Minister has promised to introduce a number of tax breaks for citizens in case of re-election.

XAUUSD Technical analysis
Technically, Gold Price breached the March 29 lows of $1,890 but found bids just above the end-February lows near $1,880.

Even though XAUUSD is bouncing back towards the $1,900 mark, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) keeps pointing lower below the midline, suggesting that any recovery attempts are likely to remain shallow.

If bulls succeed in recapturing $1,900 on a sustained basis, then Tuesday’s high of $1,911 could be retested.

Further up, the $1,950 psychological level will be closely followed by XAU bulls.

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somrat4030

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May-02, 2022, Daily currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


Currency trading daily analysis may-02, 2022

“The EUR/USD failed to close on the 4-hour chart above the 20-period SMA despite testing that level during the Asian session. In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator remains below 50 in the four hours, indicating a bearish bias in the near term. However, the fact that the price is moving above the April 21st downtrend line suggests that its losses may remain limited.

On the other hand, 1.0500 (psychological level) marked itself as the first technical support. In the event that sellers break this level, the next bearish target will come into play at 1.0470 (a multi-year low set on April 26).

To develop a rebound, EUR/USD needs to rise above 1.0560 (static level) and start using this level as support. Further resistance levels are noted at 1.0600 (psychological level) and 1.0660 (static level, 50 SMA).”

On the other hand, On Monday, the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply and Markit Economics is all set to release data for the UK Market Manufacturing PMI. According to experts, the GBP Market Manufacturing PMI achieved a score of 55.3 in April, unchanged from the previous month’s reading of 55.3.

The UK Manufacturing PMI statistics depict the manufacturing sector’s overall economic status in the United Kingdom.

The market provides services. The manufacturing sector, on the other hand, has a positive or negative impact on the country’s GDP. As a result, it is a crucial economic indicator.

Moreover, GBP/USD faces first resistance at 1.26 (psychological level).​


In case this level turns into support, the next recovery targets are located at 1.2660 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) and 1.27 (psychological level, 50-period SMA on the four-hour chart).”

“On the downside, 1.2530 (20-period SMA) aligns as interim support ahead of 1.25 (psychological level). A daily close below the latter could be seen as a bearish development and open the door for additional losses toward 1.2420 (static level).”

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Elsewhere, The main reason for the crash of the Japanese yen is the ongoing dovish tone by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). In its interest rate decision last week, the BOJ decided to leave interest rates unchanged at -0.10%, where they have been since 2016.​


The BOJ also announced that it will continue with its asset purchases program that has pushed its balance sheet to over $8 trillion.

This sentiment means that the BOJ is one of the most dovish central banks in the G7. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue with its rate hikes this week. The Bank of England (BOE) has already hiked interest rates three times while the Bank of Canada (BOC) raised rates by 0.50%.

The USD/JPY pair has been in a strong bullish trend. The weekly chart shows that the pair has risen sharply in the past 10 straight weeks. Along the way, it has risen above the important resistance levels at 118.71 and 125.86, which were the highest levels in November 2016 and June 2015, respectively.

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somrat4030

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May04, 2022, Currency Trading Daily analysis and forex market forecast, By forex forum.​


Russian Ruble trading analysis

US Dollar and Economy​

The April Services PMI came in slightly cooler than expected at 57.1, which was down from the March print of 58.3 and the consensus estimate of 58.5. The reading above 50 means that the services sector grew for the 23rd consecutive month, despite coming in lower than expected. Notably, the prices paid metric came in at an all-time high of 84.6, up from the March print of 83.8. This reflects the ongoing inflationary pressures that continue to threaten both businesses and consumers, and broadly speaking, overall economic activity in the United States.

KEY REPORT HIGHLIGHTS
*. Business Activity Index at 59.1
*. New Orders Index at 54.6
*. Employment Index at 49.5
*. Prices Paid at 84.6


On the other hand, The Euro (EUR) is trending higher against the US Dollar (USD) as USD markets remain quiet ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision.

Elsewhere, the Euro is receiving support from a better-than-expected German trade balance. In March, the nation’s trade surplus came in at €9.7bn versus forecasts of €9.5bn. However, this was still below the previous reading of €11bn.

Moreover, the Eurozone’s final services PMI for April printed at 57.7. This is in line with expectations, and above the previous reading of 55.6.

On the other hand, a weak retail sales reading is limiting the single currency’s upside.

In March, retail sales slowed to 0.8%. This is significantly lower than February’s 5.2% and missed forecast for a 1.4% expansion in sales growth.

Moreover, The USD/CHF rallied and reached a two-year high at around 0.9839 as traders prepared for the monetary policy decision of the Federal Reserve. At 0.9829, the USD/CHF retraced from daily tops but is recording gains of 0.49% at the time of writing.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/CHF has sustained the steepest rally since reaching the 0.9200 region on March 31. However, despite the Relative Strength Index (RSI) being in overbought territory at 85.67, it shows no signs of a reversal coming up next, as RSI’s slope remains upward.

With that said, the USD/CHF first resistance level would be the R2 daily pivot at 0.9850. A breach of the latter would send the pair towards the R3 pivot point at 0.9890, followed by the 0.9900 figure, shy of the parity.

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On the other hand, The Russian ruble jumped on Wednesday to around a two-year high against both the dollar and the euro, retaining the support of hefty capital controls as the European Union proposed a new package of sanctions against Russia over events in Ukraine.​


European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed a phased oil embargo on Russia, as well as sanctioning its top bank and banning its broadcasters from European airwaves, in a bid to deepen Moscow's isolation.

By 1425 GMT, the ruble was 3.6% stronger against the dollar at 68.43 , after earlier touching 68.00, its strongest since June 2020.

It had gained 3.7% to trade at 72.02 versus the euro , earlier hitting 71.83, its strongest point since February 2020.

Movements on Russian markets are affected by the ruble being propped up by capital controls, while stocks are trading with a ban on short selling and foreign players barred from ditching shares in Russian companies without permission.

Market participants question if the current rate is sustainable in light of the curbs, after the ruble sank to a record low in early March as Western nations pounded Moscow and its financial system with unprecedented sanctions.

GBP/USD analysis

The attempts of the GBP/USD currency pair have not succeeded in recovering from its recent sharp losses, which brought it to the support level 1.2411. Attempts to recover did not exceed the 1.2615 level, and the currency pair settles around the 1.2470 level at the time of writing the analysis. GBP/USD awaits important and influential events today. The first of which is the decisions of the US Federal Reserve, and tomorrow the policy decisions of the Bank of England, the tone of the announcements of these banks, will be the main driver for the sterling-dollar pair in the coming days.

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somrat4030

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May-06, 2022, Weekly Currency trading forecast, by forex forum.​


Currency trading weekly analysis may-06, 2022

The British pound appears to regain composure but remains losing in the day, down 0.06%, after the Bank of England hiked rates by 25-bps on Thursday. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.2352.

US employment figures came positive, and the BoE expects inflation to reach 10%
Global equities remain down during the North American session, while the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a YTD high of around 3.131%. Albeit higher US yields, the greenback is giving back some earlier weekly gains, as portrayed by the US Dollar Index, a gauge of the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, down 0.18%, sitting at 103.370.

Elsewhere, The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies on Friday after two volatile days as investors focused on how aggressive the Federal Reserve will be in hiking rates as it tackles rising inflation.

The dollar index hit a 20-year high overnight on safe haven demand, following a sharp stock selloff on Thursday driven by concerns about the Fed's aggressive tightening and as European currencies weakened on worries about growth in the region.

Source: investing.com/news/economy/

It retraced some of these gains, however, as investors evaluated how much of the Fed’s hawkishness is already priced into the greenback, and as some analysts argued that inflation may be nearing a peak.

Data on Friday showed that U.S. job growth increased more than expected in April. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% after advancing 0.5% in March. That lowered the year-on-year increase in wages to 5.5% from 5.6% in March.

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Moreover, the EURUSD is remaining near its lows going back to 2017.​

However, the price is trying to stay above its shorter-term 200 hour moving average at 1.05516 and its 100 hour moving average at 1.05425. The current price is trading at 1.0577. The low price for the cycle reach 1.04703 last week.

On the other hand, Earlier this morning the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its monetary policy statement. Listed below are the important issues addressed by the central bank:

1. Inflation forecasts have been revised higher and is expected to remain elevated above the 2%-3% range.

2. No concern over weakening AUD – trading around similar levels pre-pandemic as well as the start of 2022.

3. Tight labor market with low unemployment levels.

Price action on the daily AUD/USD chart shows bears looking to test the 0.7000 psychological support zone for the third time since December 2021.​

Short-term this does look probable with the dollar bid and the Chinese economy unlikely to make a swift turnaround. I will be looking for a confirmation break above 0.7183 (61.8% Fibonacci) to rethink the downside bias. If prices approach the 0.7183 resistance zone, this could be a great entry point for bears to re-enter.

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somrat4030

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May-09, 2022, Daily currency pairs analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


Currency analysis

AUD/USD remains under pressure and could retest the 0.6995 level in the near term, commented UOB Group’s FX Strategists Lee Sue Ann and Quek Ser Leang.

24-hour view: “We expected AUD to ‘trade between 0.7060 and 0.7160’ last Friday. AUD subsequently traded between 0.7059 and 0.7135 before dropping below 0.7060 during early Asian hours. Downward momentum has improved and AUD could decline further. That said, the major support at support at 0.6965 is unlikely to come under threat (0.6995 is already a strong support). Resistance is at 0.7070 followed by 0.7100.”

Moreover, The US Dollar has been making steady upside progress against the Singapore Dollar since February. However, the uptrend has slowed. Key resistance seems to have been established between 1.3866 and 1.3905. Still, a bullish ‘Golden Cross’ remains in play between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). These lines could maintain the dominant upside focus should prices turn lower. Clearing resistance exposes the midpoint and 61.8% Fibonacci extensions at 1.3929 and 1.3975 respectively.

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On the other hand, The Bank of Japan released the minutes of its March meeting earleir topday: Bank of Japan Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting on March 17 and 18 Various reports are saying the Bank reaffirmed its loose monetary policy. Well, yes, they did. But the meeting was nearly two months ago and since then we've had the even more dovish April meeting: The Bank of Japan does say it'll be conducting fixed-rate operations every day The MArch meeting minutes are not really the catalyst for the rising USD/JPY today. They are very old news indeed. And outddated. USD is up across the majors board.

Elsewhere, The EUR/USD pair made another attempt to correct last Friday. As before, it was unsuccessful.​

This time the pair only reached the level of 1.0579 and turned down again. Thus, for more than a week, the euro currency has been close to its 5-year lows, and the current local low is 1.0471. Recall that 20-year lows are located at 1.0350, so in the coming weeks the European currency may set a new anti-record value against the dollar. There were several interesting macroeconomic events on Friday. Of course, the most important was the NonFarm Payrolls report in the US, which always provokes a strong market reaction.

However, not this time. This time, the dollar has risen in price by only a few tens of points on a fairly strong report on the labor market. The number of Nonfarms was 428,000, which is really a lot. Recall that in pre-crisis times, the value of 200-250,000 new jobs was considered normal. Now, with such a high value of Nonfarms, the unemployment rate is also extremely low - only 3.6%. That is, in the United States, the risk of a shortage of labor is really high, which is also not good for the economy.

Elsewhere, The central parity rate of the Chinese currency renminbi, or the yuan, weakened 567 pips to 6.6899 against the US dollar on Monday, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System.​


In China's spot foreign exchange market, the yuan is allowed to rise or fall by 2 per cent from the central parity rate each trading day, according to Xinhua News Agency.

As per the agency, the central parity rate of the yuan against the US dollar is based on a weighted average of prices offered by market makers before the opening of the interbank market each business day.

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somrat4030

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May-10, 2022, Currency trading technical analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


currency trading daily analysis

GBPUSD bounces off June 2020 lows The GBPUSD fell yesterday to the lowest level since June 29/June 30, 2021 when the low prices came in at 1.20509 and 1.20567. The low price yesterday reached 1.22602 just above that area. Traders leaned against the risk defining level (risk was defined and limited0 and pushed the price back higher.

That area will continue to be a key barometer going forward. Stay above, and there is hope for further corrective probing to the upside. I spoke of that target in my post from last Friday HERE. Drilling to the hourly chart below, the post from Friday also spoke about getting above the double top from Friday's trade near 1.2379, and then the swing low (and old cycle low) from April 28 at 1.24107.

On the topside, getting above 1.2379 and 1.24107 are still minimum targets if the buyers are to start to "win" a little more. The 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart below) at 1.24527 (and moving lower) is also a upside target to get to and through. That is near the 50% of the move down from last week and also near the swing low from May 4 - increasing the levels/areas importance. On the downside, moving below the 1.2300 level would increase the bearish bias. Move below that level and focus returns to the 1.22509 to 1.22567 area from the daily chart.

On the other hand, The USD/MXN turned positive on Tuesday during the last hours as US stocks failed to hold into positive ground. The risk aversion environment weighs on Emerging market currencies, including the Mexican peso. Banxico will likely announce a 50bps rate hike on Thursday.

From a technical perspective, short-term bias points to the upside, particularly while above 20.25. The next resistance stands at 20.45. A daily close above 20.50 should clear the day to more gains in the short-term. The next strong barrier is seen at 20.70.

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Elsewhere, The USDCAD moved to the highest level since the week of November 22, 2020 today with the price extending up to a high of 1.3036.​


Looking at the weekly chart, that high was able to extend above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the March 2020 high at 1.30224. However, the price could not extend above the 200 week moving average target currently at 1.3039.

Drilling to the hourly chart, the USDCAD price decline from the high today did moved down toward - and through - a lower trendline. However, support buyers came in near that level and have pushed the price of the USDCAD back higher over the last couple hours back toward the 1.3022 weekly retracement level. Buyers are still in control.

On the other hand, The Euro to Dollar rate has remained close to five-year lows even as market expectations have shifted in favour of a sharp uplift in European Central Bank (ECB) interest rates this year and HSBC says this likely reflects worries about the Eurozone economy and risks of financial fragmentation.​


Europe’s single currency slipped briefly beneath 1.05 against the Dollar last week, marking its lowest ebb since the most acute phase of the coronavirus crisis and leaving it within arm’s reach of its 2017 nadir around 1.0344.

While the Euro to Dollar exchange rate was quick to recover above 1.05 ahead of the weekend, it has remained suppressed beneath 1.06 thus far in the new week and in spite of an increasingly widespread array of Governing Council members suggesting the ECB could be close to lifting its interest rates.

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somrat4030

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May-11, 2022, Daily Currency market technical analysis and forecast, by forex forum.​


forex trading analysis

All attention will now be focused on inflation data in the US, on which the further direction of the pair depends. In the event of a decrease in price pressure, as economists expect, the demand for risky assets will increase, which will lead to an upward movement of EUR/USD and a re-growth in the area of 1.0571. If the situation turns out to be not as favorable as many expect, the pressure on the euro will return, because the US dollar will continue to strengthen its position with increased price pressure, which will force the Federal Reserve System to act more aggressively - even an increase in interest rates by 0.75% immediately in June this year is not excluded.

A breakout and a top-down test of 1.0571 form a new signal for entering long positions, strengthening buyers, and opening up the opportunity for further growth of EUR/USD to the area of 1.0638, where I recommend fixing the profits. A more distant target will be the 1.0691 area. In the event of a decline in EUR/USD and the absence of buyers at 1.0519, the optimal scenario for buying will be a false breakdown near this year's low of 1.0473.

I advise you to open long positions on the euro immediately for a rebound only from 1.0426, or even lower - around 1.0394 with the aim of an upward correction of 30-35 points inside the day.

On the other hand, Economists at Commerzbank are seeing depreciation pressure for the Chinese yuan over the coming year. They forecast USD/CNY at 6.70 and 6.80 by the year-end of 2022 and 2023 respectively.

A weakening bias for CNY​

“A strong dollar due to policy tightening is likely to the main theme in the coming years, while China has much smaller room to maneuver which implies a downside risk for the Chinese currency.”

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USD/CAD KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS

Moreover, Looking at USD/CAD, its no secret that the US dollar has been running hot, buoyed by the initial safe-haven appeal of the Ukraine invasion, now being supported by an aggressive rate hiking cycle by the Federal Reserve Bank. Earlier today we have seen what can be described as the market front-running a potentially lower inflation data print as USD/CAD reversed off the topside of the zone of resistance at 1.3030.

Resistance currently lies at 1.3030 but could move to 1.2960 if we witness a move lower in USD/CAD after the inflation print.

The weekly USD/CAD chart underscores the significance of the zone of resistance (blue rectangle) as it coincides with prior resistance of 1.2960 and the 38.2% Fib level of the March 2020 major move lower.

USD/JPY Technical analysis​


Elsewhere, USDJPY move back above its 200 and 100 hour moving averages The USDJPY has moved higher on the back of the dollar buying after the CPI data showed higher than expected inflation last month. Technically, the price moved back above its 200 hour moving average at 130.17. The price also extended back above its 100 hour moving average at 130.421. That 100 hour moving average is being breached to the downside as I type. Technically, that neutralizes the bias as the price now trades below the 100 but above the 200 hour moving average.

The high price today extended to 130.806 which was a swing high going back to last Friday's trade. That was also the high for the trading week. Sellers leaned against that level on the 1st test. It would take a move above that level to increase the bullish bias going forward.

The USDCHF , in the NY session, the price moved sharply higher after the higher than expected CPI data. However, the run to the upside found sellers near/ahead of the highs seen on Monday and Tuesday between 0.9965 to 0.99743. Those levels are the highest since December 2019.

The subsequent fall in the USDCHF has seen the price tumble back below the 100 hour MA, and return to the earlier European lows near the 38.2% of the last run higher at 0.98728. For the second time today, the buyers leaned against the 38.2% and has seen a bounce.

The USDCHF's move off the low is so far holding below it's 100 hour MA at 0.99046. That 100 hour MA is a short term barometer for the buyers and sellers as is the 38.2%.

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somrat4030

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May-12, 2022, Gold trading analysis and Currency pairs forecast, by forex forum.​


The price of gold is losing some 1.60% at the time of writing, falling from a high of $1,858.87 to a fresh cycle low of $1,822.27. The US dollar is bid and climbed to fresh two-decade highs on Thursday as investors flock to the safe-haven currency in the face of surging inflation.

Data on Wednesday confirmed expectations for further aggressive hikes in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. The Consumer Price Index climbed 8.3%, higher than the 8.1% estimate but below the 8.5% in the prior month. The index rose just 0.3% last month, the smallest gain since last August, the Labor Department said on Wednesday, versus the 1.2% MoM surge in the CPI in March, the most significant advance since September 2005. However, ''the fact that the CPI is driven by rents and services implies that price pressures are entrenched and may manifest in upward pressure on wages too,'' analysts at TD Securities argued.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis​


On the other hand, The short side of the euro could be a difficult pair to chase. But, on the other side, there’s no sign yet that bears are done so reversals can be similarly complicated.

On a short-term basis, there’s resistance potential around prior short-term swings. The level at 1.0441 is very nearby and this would be an aggressive spot to plot for. If sellers remain aggressive that’d be a point of interest. A bit deeper, there’s a little more context around 1.0469 which was a late-April price swing. And, above that, the 1.0500 level looms large as this was support for more than two weeks before finally giving way.

USD/JPY Technical analysis​


Elsewhere, the USDJPY was targeting the 38.2% retracement of the last move higher from the end of March low to the high price reached on Monday. That level comes in at 127.495 (call 127.50). The low price reached 127.508 and has since the a bounce back up above 128.00 area. The current price is trading at 128.15.

Helping the bounce was a reversal of the sharp declines seen in the US stocks. Although the major indices are now negative/near unchanged (Dow is down, NASDAQ is near unchanged). The NASDAQ was down as much as -255 points or -2.25%. The S&P was down -58.68 points or -1.49% at session lows

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May-17, 2022, Currency Market Daily Analysis and Forecast, by forex forum.​


US Dollar Market Analysis

The market mood in the New York session remains positive, carrying on the mood from the Asian and European sessions. US equities are recording gains between 1% and 2.67%.

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook​


On Tuesday, the EUR/JPY surged above the 50-day moving average and the head-and-shoulders neckline in the 134.95-135.25/35 area, threatening to invalidate the chart pattern. In the near term, the bias, which shifted to neutral-upwards, as of writing is upwards.

With that said, the EUR/JPY’s first resistance would be 137.00. Break above would expose 138.00, followed by May 9 swing high at 138.32. On the flip side, the EUR/JPY first support would be 136.00. A breach of the latter, the next support would be the head-and-shoulders neckline around 135.25-35, followed by April’s 27 daily low at 134.77.

On the other hand, The dollar fell for a third straight day on Tuesday, pulling back from a two-decade high against a basket of major peers, as an uptick in investors' appetite for riskier bets diminished the U.S. currency's appeal.

Upbeat earnings views from Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and United Airlines along with optimism around the easing of China's crackdown on tech and COVID-19, helped to lift risk sentiment.

Source: investing.com

The U.S. Dollar Currency Index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was down 0.7% at 103.41, its lowest since May 6. The index hit a two-decade high last week supported by a hawkish Federal Reserve and worries over the global economic fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

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GBP/USD

Elsewhere, The British Pound soared on Tuesday, buoyed by broad-based U.S. dollar weakness, but more importantly, strong UK economic data. In late trading during the New York session, GBP/USD was up 1.3% to 1.2482, posting its largest single day rally since October 2020.

Earlier today, UK employment figures showed that the country added 83,000 workers in February, beating expectations for a net increase of 5,000 jobs handsomely. With this result, the unemployment rate fell 3.8% to 3.7%, hitting its lowest level in nearly half a century.

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD rebounded from 1.2250, the 2022 low, rising above 1.23. The bullish crossover on the MACD is keeping buyers hopeful of more upside.

Bulls will look to retake 1.2410, the April 28 low, before 1.25, the 20 SMA, and then 1.2635, the May high.

Failure to retake resistance at 1.2410 could see the price rebound lower, back below 1.23. A fall below 1.2155 is needed to create a lower low.

AUD/USD

The AUDUSD moved to the lowest level since June 21, 2020 last week, and in the process broke below swing lows from September 2020, October 2020, November 2020, November 2021, December 2021 and the January 2022 between 0.6966 and 0.7005 (see red numbered circles in the chart above).

The breaking of that floor area (see red numbered circles in the chart above) gave sellers the go-ahead to probe lower and they took the pair to a low of 0.6828 toward the end of day on a Thursday. The price did rebound into the end the week and closed at 0.69374 on Friday.

XAU/USD


Moreover, A closer look at Gold price action shows XAU/USD rebounding off the lower parallel with precision with the rally faltering today into 1827. Initial support steady at 1791 – a break below this threshold would threaten another accelerated decline in gold with such a scenario exposing subsequent support objectives at the November lows at 1758 and the August low-day close at 1729- look for a larger reaction in price there IF reached.

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May-18, 2022, Daily Currency Trading technical analysis and market forecast, by forex forum.​


Daily Currency Trading technical analysis and market forecast (1) copy.jpg

GBP/USD jumped in excess of 1.3% on Tuesday, its best performance in nearly 18-months after the UK Jobs Report showed that the labor market remains in rude health. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, its lowest level in 50-years, while average earnings including bonuses rose by 7% in March as employers paid more to keep existing staff.

Retail trader data show 69.52% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.28 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 12.59% lower than yesterday and 19.96% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 40.21% higher than yesterday and 50.83% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBP/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

Moreover, The pound fell against the dollar on Wednesday after data showed British inflation rising to 9%, the highest level in 40 years.

At 0846 GMT, sterling was down 0.9% against the U.S. dollar at $1.23820.

The drop reverses most of the gains made on Tuesday when the pound touched its highest level since May 5.

Strong labour market data had boosted expectations that the Bank of England would have to further increase interest rates, but the latest inflation numbers are fuelling fears that the threat of recession may temper how far the central bank can go.

"Yesterday it looked like with wage growth rising and unemployment so low it meant that the bank had more room for manoeuvre," said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown

EUR/USD​


On the other hand, The Euro US Dollar exchange rate began the last seven days on a downward trend after German inflation figures came in well below forecast. A widening of the Eurozone trade deficit on Monday may have also contributed to the fall.

The pair’s recovery was aided by a surprisingly hawkish stance from the European Central Bank (ECB). A speech from ECB President Christine Lagarde signalled that a summer 2022 rate hike was likely. Strong GDP growth figures for the Eurozone on Tuesday may also have helped to lift the EUR/USD pair.

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Moreover, The European currency is strengthening against the US dollar today. Yesterday preliminary eurozone GDP data for the first quarter was released, exceeding market expectations. The European economy grew by 0.3% in quarterly terms instead of 0.2% and by 5.1% in annual terms instead of the expected 5.0%.

Overall, the European economy showed resilience even despite the negative impact of rising inflation and the Russia-Ukraine crisis, in particular supply chain disruptions and declining business confidence. Also note today’s comments from European Central Bank official Klaas Nota, who said that the regulator may raise interest rates by 50 basis points at once at its July meeting.

In general, the number of supporters of monetary policy tightening within the European regulator continues to grow.

JPY/USD​


Elsewhere, The Japanese Yen appears to be consolidating beneath the 130 level as USD/JPY is on track to mark a third day of doji candles on the daily chart. Doji candles typically indicate indecision, which is an apt way to summarize recent USD/JPY price action.

Japan's Worsening Fundamental Outlook
Earlier today Japan's preliminary GDP growth figure for Q1 suggested a contraction in economic growth with a -0.2% quarter on quarter figure, while the annualized figure signaled a contraction of 1%. Both data metrics have seesawed in previous readings, oscillating between positive and negative prints – avoiding a technical recession.

USD/JPY Technical Levels

As mentioned earlier, the USD/JPY chart reveals multiple doji candles as the prevailing uptrend compresses due to a slightly softer dollar. Equity markets and other pro-cyclical FX pairs have clawed back losses in recent days as risk sentiment appears to have stabilized somewhat. As such, funds appear to be flowing away from the 'safer' USD to stocks and commodity currencies to mention a few.

Key resistance remains at 130 with support all the way back at 125. Despite the weak fundamentals, the negative divergence shown on the RSI suggests we could see lower USD/JPY prices. The indicator made lower highs while price action printed higher highs suggesting that the pause in trend could turn into a deeper pullback.

AUD/USD

On the other hand, The AUD/USD pair seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the mid-European session and now seems to have stabilized in neutral territory, around the 0.7020 region.

Following an early uptick to a one-week high, the AUD/USD pair witnessed modest intraday pullback from the vicinity of mid-0.7000s on Wednesday amid the emergence of some US dollar dip-buying. Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a more hawkish tone on Tuesday and said that he will back interest rate increases until prices start falling back toward a healthy level.

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May-23, 2022, Daily forex trading analysis and currency market forecast, by forex forum.​


Currency trading analysis may-23, 2022

The USD/JPY edges lower and records minimal losses of 0.01% in the North American session, courtesy of a positive mood and a weaker greenback. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 127.84.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/JPY remains neutral-upward biased from a daily chart perspective, albeit approaching April’s 26 swing lows at around 126.94, was unable to break support. Nevertheless, the pair could shift its bias to neutral if USD/JPY bulls fail to break the 20-DMA at 129.23, exposing the major to selling pressure.

The USD/JPY 1-hour chart shows that the pair is trapped between the 50 and 100-hour simple moving averages (SMAs) at 127.98 and 128.19, respectively, but it is upwards. Why? The 20-hour SMA resides below the exchange rate, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifted bullish above the 50-midline. Therefore, the USD/JPY bias is upwards.


USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: DXY OUTLOOK IN THE DAYS AHEAD​


On the other hand, The US Dollar Index (DXY) is continuing its recent run of weakness as it pulls back sharply from recent highs. The extremes in bullish sentiment suggested the dollar needed to cool off, and so the recent slide isn’t surprising.

The question is, is whether the USD can reassert its bullish ways quickly, or if it will need some time to digest the run before continuing higher. It’s also possible we are seeing a larger reversal, but at this time that appears to have a lower probability than an eventual trend continuation.

In any event, the DXY is trading around its first level of support via a swing low created on May 5 at 102.35. This is below the trend-line extending higher from the late March low, but even though the trend-line has been broken it doesn’t mean we will necessarily see further weakness.

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USD/CAD

Elsewhere, The USDCAD is lower on the day with the price opening at its high and trading down to its low in the North American session. The last 13 or so hours have seen the price trade up and down with a high near 1.2807 and a low at 1.27659.

On the downside, the pair stalled near a lower downward sloping trend line on the hourly chart, AND the 50% midpoint of the move up from the April 21 low. Those levels come in near 1.27668. On the topside, the 100 hour MA is the key resistance today and going forward. That MA comes in at 1.28197.

EUR/USD​


Moreover, The EUR/USD is soaring and is closing to the 1.0700 mark, courtesy of the greenback trading in a softer tone, an upbeat market sentiment, and an additional “hawkish” boost provided by the European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde, saying that a rate hike on July, it’s possible. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.0673.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The EUR/USD daily chart depicts the pair as downward biased, despite reclaiming the 20-day moving average (DMA), which currently sits at 1.0530. Nevertheless, the rally appears to be overextended, as it is above the top band of the Bollinger’s band indicator at 1.0673, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above the 50-midline is aiming higher, with enough room before reaching overbought conditions.

Upwards, the EUR/USD’s first resistance would be the 1.0700 mark. Break above would expose the 50-DMA at 1.0772, followed by 1.0800. On the other hand, the major’s first support would be the 1.0600 figure. A breach of the latter would expose the 20-DMA at 1.0529, followed by the 1.0500 mark.

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May-24, 2022, Daily Currency trading technical and fundamental analysis, by forex forum.​


24 may 2022, currency trading analysis

The Russian rouble strengthened to levels not seen since March 2018 against the dollar on Tuesday, boosted by export-focused companies selling foreign currency to pay taxes and shrugging off a slight easing of capital controls.

The rouble has firmed about 30% against the dollar this year despite a full-scale economic crisis in Russia, making it the world's .

The rouble is steered by capital controls imposed in late February to shield Russia's financial sector after Moscow's decision to send tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine prompted unprecedented Western sanctions.

At 1110 GMT, the rouble was 2.5% stronger against the dollar at 56.36, hovering around this level for the first time in more than four years.

Against the euro, the rouble gained 3% to 58.24, its strongest in seven years.

EUR/GBP​


On the other hand, EUR/GBP: Retail trader data shows 49.92% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.00 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since May 16 when EUR/GBP traded near 0.85, price has moved 1.33% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 12.30% lower than yesterday and 8.89% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 17.92% higher than yesterday and 31.60% higher from last week.

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Moreover, The Pound (GBP) is tumbling against its rivals today after poor UK PMI figures this morning added to fears of a 2022 recession in the UK. The reading of the UK’s services PMI fell to 51.8 versus forecasts of 57 as the country’s cost-of-living crisis squeezes household spending.

Samiel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said:

‘The collapse in the composite PMI in May is the clearest sign yet that demand is faltering in response to the intense squeeze on households’ real disposable incomes.’

Analysts have also highlighted the likelihood that soaring inflation is likely to prompt even worse figures in the coming months.

Concerns that the data could limit further rate hikes from the Bank of England’s (BoE) are also likely weighing on GBP today. Financial markets do still expect the central bank to raise rates to at least 2% by year’s end, however.

At time of writing the GBP/USD exchange rate is at around $1.2507, which is down roughly -0.5% from this morning’s opening figures.

USD/JPY

Elsewhere, The USDJPY is moving sharply lower after flash PMI data, US new home sales, and Richmond Fed manufacturing indices all shocked the markets with lower values.

Looking at the USDJPY, it has moved down to test the 50% midpoint of the last trend move higher from the end of March corrective low. That level comes in at 126.306. The low price just reached 126.38.

Looking at the hourly chart, the 50% level corresponds with swing levels going back to mid April before the price shot higher on April 18 and April 19. A move below that level would open the door for a rotation back down toward the 61.8% retracement at 125.14.

EUR/USD​


The main indices of the Polish stock market slightly corrected Monday's growth today (WIG-20 -0.23% around 15:30). WIG-Chemia reached its new 3-year high during today's session.

Celon Pharma's share price was approaching its historic low in 2016 (-2.51% at around 3:30 pm). More than 10 percent The share prices of Ten Square Games fell to the lowest level since the end of 2019, which yesterday announced the results for the first quarter of this year. (PLN 25.59 million of net profit).

In Europe this afternoon the declines of the main indices prevailed (DAX -0.95%, CAC 40 -1.05%).

The euro, after a strong increase against the US dollar on Monday, continued to rise a day later (+0.2%). The zloty was appreciating (EUR / PLN -0.4%, USD / PLN -0.6%). The zloty was the strongest against the euro since the end of February.

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May-25, 2022, Daily forex trading analysis and currency exchange forecast, by forex forum.​


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EUR/USD corrects lower following a failed attempt to extend the daily range further north of the 1.0750 zone, sparking a subsequent correction of nearly one big figure to the vicinity of 1.0640.

The renewed strength in the dollar sponsored the move lower in spot, which it has also met some help from lower yields on both sides of the ocean.

No news from earlier comments from ECB-speakers, as practically all of them joined the summer rate hike narrative in place in the last couple of weeks.

In the euro calendar, earlier results saw the German GDP Growth Rate expand 3.8% YoY in Q1 and the Consumer Confidence tracked by GfK improve marginally to -26 for the month of June. In France, the Consumer Confidence came in short of expectations in May at 86 (from April’s 87).

Elsewhere, GBP/USD stalls below $1.26​


The weakening dollar has given GBP/USD space to bounce, and since mid-month the pair has been able to move back towards the early May highs at $1.26. But a weaker set of purchasing manager index (PMIs) yesterday meant that the pound ran into some selling pressure, and as a result, the pair has been unable to maintain upward progress, and is now at risk of turning lower.

Fresh declines would bring the May low back into view, down towards $1.22 and potentially lower, with $1.208 the next big level to watch.

JPY/USD

On the other hand, Turning to the economic calendar, the focus will be on April U.S. PCE scheduled for Friday. U.S. markets are closed next Monday for the Memorial Day holiday and traders are starting to leave their desks for the long weekend, so liquidity conditions could deteriorate further in the coming days. Thin liquidity could amplify price volatility if key data surprises relative to expectations. Check out the forum.forex Economical calendar to see what traders expect.

In terms of technical analysis, USD/JPY has bounced off support in the 126.50 zone and seems to be heading towards trendline resistance near 127.40. If price manages to clear this hurdle, bulls could launch an attack on 128.40, the upper boundary of a short-term descending channel. On further strength, the focus shifts higher to 129.75. On the flip side, if sellers return and spark a bearish reversal, initial support spans from 126.50/126.15. If this area is breached on the downside, USD/JPY could be on its way towards the psychological 125.00 level.

US dollar

The U.S. dollar snapped a two-day losing streak on Wednesday ahead of the release of the minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's May meeting, which investors will parse for clues about further interest rate hikes.

The minutes are due at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT). U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has promised to continue hiking rates until there is clear and convincing evidence that inflation is under control.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of peer currencies, was up 0.491% at 102.25, at 10:15 a.m. (1415 GMT).

The dollar had fallen to a one-month low on Tuesday after European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde flagged an end to negative interest rates in the euro zone in the third quarter.

Moreover, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand became the latest central bank to raise interest rates by half a point. While that move was expected, it also provided hawkish guidance on its policy path, noting a larger and earlier hike reduced the risk of inflation becoming persistent.

That had helped the kiwi dollar rise as much as 0.8% at one point to a three-week peak of $0.6514. But as the U.S. dollar gained momentum, the kiwi ceded most its gains, last trading up 0.01% at $0.6461.

GBP/EUR

Elsewhere, The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate fluctuated today as GBP investors reacted to the ‘partygate’ report.

Sue Gray’s long-delayed report into illegal parties at Downing Street rocked the Pound (GBP), causing it to slip against most of its major rivals.

The scandal has plagued Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s premiership since it hit the headlines back in November. The question today was whether Gray’s report would be damning enough to trigger a vote of no confidence.

So far, Johnson seems to have survived the report’s release. But the political uncertainty has caused some turbulence in the Pound.

However, poor data from Germany weighed on the Euro (EUR), allowing GBP/EUR to waver higher overall.

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May-26, 2022, Daily Currency market forecast and forex market analysis, By forex forum.​


Currency Trading analysis, may-26, 2022

EUR/USD Rises Amid Improved Market Confidence.

On the euro side of the equation, the ECB is increasingly turning against several months ago. The bank now vouches for a policy acceleration and exits from negative interest rates by the end of the third quarter. This pivot could soon open the door to a 50 bps boost and increase support for European currencies, or at least prevent more depreciation. The stars appear to be ready for the EUR/USD recovery going forward in the summer.

Technical analysis EUR/USD

EUR/USD is approaching its best level since late April. After rising in the past few weeks. with the latest advances Both looked ready to test cluster resistance again. It covers from 1.0750 to 1.0800 if the bull can break through this ceiling to an uptrend. Buying interest may accelerate This paves the way for a move towards 1.0940. Conversely, if sellers recover and prices drop. Initial support will be at 1.0642, followed by 1.0470.

Rouble Analysis​


On the other hand, The Russian rouble slumped around 10% against the dollar in volatile trade to a two-week low on Thursday as the central bank cut interest rates to 11% and suggested more cuts would follow as inflation risks subside.

The central bank cut its key rate by 300 basis points for the third time in a row, softening the cost of borrowing again after an emergency rate hike to 20% in late February days after Russia sent troops into Ukraine.

At a banking conference in Moscow, Governor Elvira Nabiullina said the central bank had prevented an inflation spiral and would lower its 2022 inflation forecast from 18-23%, reiterating the bank's signal that it may cut rates further at its next meeting on June 10.

By 1420 GMT, the rouble was around 10% weaker against the dollar at 65.70 , its weakest since May 12 and tumbling from 55.80, its strongest level since February 2018 which it hit on Wednesday.

It had lost 14% to trade at 69.50 versus the euro, also a two-week low, having touched a seven-year high of 57.10 in the previous session.

Source: investing.com

USD/JPY

Elsewhere, The Japanese Yen has finally been finding some footing against the US Dollar. Over the past two weeks, USD/JPY declined by over 2 percent. That was the worst 2-week period since June 2020. This has been in stark contrast with general Yen weakness going back all the way to the beginning of 2021. Is this near-term noise, or is more smooth sailing ahead for the Japanese currency?

Against the US Dollar, it is a different fundamental story. Both the US Dollar and Japanese Yen exhibit anti-risk dynamics. The more important focus for USD/JPY is thus on relative monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. The latter has not been doing much in terms of shifting its dovish view, but the markets are starting to reprice what the former could do in the future.

USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

With that in mind, traders ought to treat USD/JPY’s recent breakout with a grain of salt. The pair just barely closed under the April 27th low at 126.952. Moreover, the 50-day Simple Moving Average remains in play and can reorient the pair to the upside. Such an outcome would place the focus on 131.256 resistance. Otherwise, confirming a breakout under the SMA could spell further trouble for USD/JPY. That would place the focus on the former 125.108 – 123.862 resistance zone.

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Moreover, The GBPUSD has waffled up and down in trading today.​


On the topside, the pair found sellers against the 50% midpoint of the move down from the April 21 high. That retracement level comes in at 1.2622. The high price reached 1.2620 - just below that target (there is a swing area from 1.2600 to 1.2622).

On the downside support buyers have come in ahead of the rising 100 hour moving average. That level comes in at 1.2544. The low price in the US session just reached 1.2552. Recall that yesterday, the price did dipped below the 100 hour moving average, but then moved back above it in the US session and stayed above the risk defining level.

USD/CAD

On the other hand, Next week, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will have its monetary policy meeting. Market consensus is for another 50 basis points rate hike to 1.50%. According to analysts from TD Securities, global factors remain a crucial driver of the Canadian dollar, likely limiting the impact of the rate hike from the BoC.

“Global factors remain a crucial driver of the loonie, likely limiting the impact of the BoC's anticipated 50bp rate hike. As a result, we expect USD/CAD to maintain the 1.26-1.30 range through the summer months but will look to fade extremes. For now, CAD is more attractive to trade tactically on the crosses where we remain short versus NOK and like scaling into short exposure versus AUD.”

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May-30, 2022, Daily Currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


Currency trading daily analysis may-30, 2022

The US dollar is trading sideways today, not helped by the Memorial Day holiday in the US, leaving GBP/USD listless in early turnover. With US markets closed, and with no UK economic data on the slate, today’s session will likely see little volatility or price action.

The UK is also nearing a four-day weekend with the Queen’s Platinum Celebrations commencing this Thursday, leaving the pair vulnerable to US dollar drivers at the end of the week, especially Friday’s US non-farm payroll report.

GBP/USD DAILY PRICE CHART​


Retail trader data show 67.44% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.07 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 1.13% higher than yesterday and 7.83% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.04% higher than yesterday and 19.77% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBP/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

EUR/USD struggles around the 55-day simple moving average.

On the other hand, EUR/USD’s near 4% rally from its mid-May $1.035 low has so far taken it to a one-month high at $1.077 as US core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price inflation continues to slow down. The cross seems to be struggling around the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.077 as US markets are shut due to Memorial Day with quiet trading expected to be seen in currency markets today.

EUR/GBP continues to oscillate around the £0.85 mark

Moreover, EUR/GBP faltered at £0.8587, last week, marginally below the £0.8618 mid-May peak, before it rapidly came off following record low German GfK consumer confidence data. Last week’s low at £0.848 held throughout the week, though, with the cross heading back up again today, following a long Ascension Day holiday weekend in Catholic Europe.

The 16 May high at £0.8534 is back in the picture, a rise above which would lead to the £0.8587 to £0.8618 resistance area being revisited.

USD/JPY

Elsewhere, The USD/JPY pair gained some positive traction on Monday and held on to its modest intraday gains through the first half of the European session. The pair was last seen trading around the 127.25-127.30 area, up 0.15% for the day.

Investors turned optimistic amid hopes that the easing of COVID-19 restrictions in China would boost the global economy, which was evident from the ongoing risk-on rally in the equity markets. This, in turn, undermined demand for the safe-haven Japanese yen and acted as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair, though the prevalent US dollar selling bias kept a lid on any meaningful gains.

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Russian Rouble​


The rouble firmed sharply in volatile trade on the Moscow Exchange on Monday, reversing some of last week's heavy losses as it retained support from capital controls and Russia's strong trade account.

At 0807 GMT, the rouble was nearly 5% stronger at 63.47 to the dollar. Last Wednesday it had hit 55.80 to the dollar, its strongest level since February 2018.

Against the euro, the rouble rose 6% to 65.40, having last Wednesday hit a seven-year high of 57.10, at the peak of month-end tax payments that usually prompt export-focused companies to convert foreign currency to meet liabilities.

The dollar-denominated RTS index rose 4.2% to 1,181.7 points. The rouble-based MOEX Russian index was 0.3% lower at 2,401.0 points, pressured by the rouble's recovery.

GBP/AUD Exchange Rate Forecast: Will Australia’s GDP Dent AUD Exchange Rates?


On the other hand, Looking ahead, the Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate is likely to be boosted by Australia’s latest GDP figures.

During the first three months of 2022, Australia’s GDP is forecast to slow from 3.4% to 0.7% which may dent the ‘Aussie’s appeal.

Moreover, the Chinese manufacturing PMI may also weigh on demand for the Australian Dollar.

In May, China’s manufacturing sector is expected to have contracted: this has the potential to reignite fears over demand for Australian exports.

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May-31, 2022, Daily currency trading analysis and forex trading profitable strategy explain, by forex forum.​


ussian oil has been selling at a steep discount compared to the global benchmark copy.jpg

The U.S. dollar rose across the board on Tuesday as Treasury yields climbed and worries over a further acceleration in global inflation kept investors' risk appetite at bay.

The dollar was supported by demand for havens. U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday as soaring oil prices and hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve official spooked investors.

The U.S. Dollar Currency Index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was up 0.5% at 101.92, on pace for its best one-day gain in nearly two weeks. The dollar index, up about 6.6% for the year, is down 1.2% for May, on pace for its worst monthly loss in a year.

Inflation in the 19 countries sharing the euro accelerated to 8.1% in May from 7.4% in April, beating expectations for 7.7% as price growth continued to broaden, indicating that it is no longer just energy pulling up the headline figure.

Against the dollar, the euro fell 0.6% to a 5-day low.

USD/CAD

On the other hand, The USD/CAD broke below 1.2650 and fell to 1.2628, reaching a fresh monthly low. The pair resumed the downside despite the Canadian GDP reading coming below expectations and ahead of Wednesday’s Bank of Canada meeting.

The USD/CAD is falling despite the recovery of the US dollar. The DXY is having the best day in almost two weeks as US yields move higher. A deterioration in market sentiment is also helping the greenback. The Dow Joines is falling by 0.78% and the Nasdaq drops by 0.71%.

If USD/CAD rises back above 1.2650 the loonie will likely lose momentum favoring a return to the 1.2685/1.2650 range. Below the daily low, attention would turn to 1.2600. Ahead of the BoC meeting, volatility is set to remain elevated.

EURO AREA INFLATION AT FRESH RECORD HIGH​


Euro Area inflation rose to 8.1% in May, up from 7.5% and above expectations of 7.7%. The core figure also printed above expectations at 3.8% vs 3.5% and thus reaffirms the case for ECB tightening in Q3. Although, the question for the ECB is whether the bank will go ahead with 25 or 50bps in July. Despite money markets pricing in 34bps worth of tightening in July, a 25bps hike remains the base case for me. Alongside this, slower growth remains the risk going forward, which in turn, still supports the bias to fade dips in the US Dollar.

The current recovery in the Euro is around 4% from its recent lows, compared to prior recoveries of 3.3-3.5% in January and March, which signals to me that the current bounce back maybe a bit long in the tooth. While last week’s comments by Fed’s Bostic regarding a potential pause in tightening as soon as September likely exacerbated the USD weakness, the Fed will have little desire to pivot away from its aggressive tightening outlook given inflation remains very sticky at extremely elevated levels.

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NZD/USD

Elsewhere, The NZDUSD moved to a new high going back to May 5 in the Asian session. The high price reached 0.65634. That was just short of the May 5 high at 0.65673 (which is also the high for the month of May).

The inability to extend above the May high turned buyers into sellers. The price rotated back to the downside, and after breaking below the swing high from May 25 at 0.65145 , the upward sloping trend line and the rising 100 hour moving average, the sellers took back control and push the price down to a new session low at 0.6482.

EUR/GBP

On the other hand, “EUR/GBP is now comfortably above the 40-week moving average at 0.8442 and trying to sustain gains over a minor intermediate dropped-down resistance line from 0.8719, the late April highs. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) signal is grinding out a nascent buy signal, so all looks good for a budding recovery.”

“ECB hawkish rhetoric is driving the cart. The next ECB policy meeting scheduled for 9 June is watching out for signs of a July policy lift-off. Given that inflation has nudged to 8.1% in May for the eurozone, Klass Knot (a noted hawk, President of the Dutch central bank) has remarked a 50 bps rate hike is not off the table.”

“EUR/GBP has edged higher and paved cloud support at 0.8358 on the daily Ichimoku charts. Nonetheless, the cross still has hurdles to clear. 0.8618 the mid-May spike high and 0.8659 are intermittent resistance levels to break.”

Russian Oil​


Moreover, Russian oil has been selling at a steep discount compared to the global benchmark, and the discount could widen further as Europe tightens sanctions on Moscow for its war on Ukraine.

Russia's Finance Ministry said a barrel of Urals, the country's primary export blend, sold for $73.24 from mid-April to mid-May, about 32% below Brent crude oil futures over the same period, according to Bloomberg.

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somrat4030

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June-01, 2022, Daily latest Currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


forex trading june-01, 2022

The EUR/USD broke to the downside after trading for hours in a range between 1.0730-1.0700, dropping precipitously to 1.0650, and hitting its lowest level since May 25. The pair remains under pressure as the US dollar benefits from higher US yields and safe-haven flows due to increased risk aversion.

From a technical perspective, the area between 1.0640/50 provides strong support; below that, the next target stands at 1.0605. If EUR/USD manages to hold above 1.0650, the euro could rebound initially to 1.0700. Above that the next resistance is seen at 1.0735.

US Dollar

On the other hand, The US Dollar just completed its first bearish monthly bar of 2022 trade. The early-portion of the month saw bulls drive up to another fresh high, this time setting a fresh 19-year-high in the currency. But that strength dissipated in the second-half of the month as stocks started to show signs of pulling back.

On a shorter-term basis, support is playing-in from a prior spot of resistance. This plots around a trendline projection from a bullish channel that guided the currency for the better part of a year until the mid-April breakout. This support came into play on Monday and that led to a bounce yesterday which has so far continued through today.

We’re at near-term resistance right now, plotted at 102.35 which is taken from a prior swing-low. Shorter-term support potential remains at both 102.04 and 101.80.

USD/CAD​


Elsewhere, The BoC lifted rates by 0.50%, using as backdrop high global inflation, driven by elevated energy prices, courtesy of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China’s Covid-19 related lockdowns, and ongoing supply disruptions. The BoC emphasized that the war “increased uncertainty and put further upward pressure on energy and agricultural commodities prices.”

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/CAD remains downward pressured, but USD/CAD buyers are lifting the pair above the 200-day moving average (DMA), which lies at 1.2659. Nevertheless, it’s worth noting that although they lift the major upwards, aiming towards 1.2700, solid ceiling levels lie ahead around 1.2700.

If the scenario of the USD/CAD reaching 1.2700 is about to play out, the USD/CAD’s first resistance would be the 100-DMA at 1.2695. Break above would send the pair towards the 50-DMA at 1.2708, followed by the May 27 high at 1.2783. On the other hand, the USD/CAD first support would be the 200-DMA. A breach of the latter would expose the Bollinger bottom band at 1.2607.

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Moreover, GBP/CAD losses extended to new 2022 lows as the Loonie held a gain of more than one percent gain over the U.S. Dollar for the week to Wednesday.

The decision came with various measures of inflation in Canada ranging from between 3.2% and 6.8% and marks an almost complete withdrawal of the large interest rate cuts that were announced by the BoC during the earliest days of the coronavirus crisis when the cash rate was chopped from 1.75%.

AUD/USD​


The AUDUSD had a volatile up and down month in May, but rebounded into positive territory by the close of the month yesterday.

The 100 day MA loomed above and after a dip in the Asian session today, the price moved higher to test that MA in the early US session. The 100 day MA comes in at 0.72286. The high price today reached 0.7230 just above that level by 1.4 basis points.. Sellers came in and pushed the price back to the downside.

The better US data, led to higher rates, lower stocks and the a higher USD. The AUDUSD fell lower in response, but found support buyers against the lower 100 hour MA at 0.71625. The low price reached 0.71645. The current price is trading at 0.71675.

GBP/USD

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate continued to fall today. A robust JOLTS job openings reading as well as an above-forecast uptick to US manufacturing growth helped to push USD even higher. A hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve also likely boosted the US Dollar, as well as a risk-off market mood.

At time of writing the GBP/USD exchange rate is at $1.2468, which is around -1.12% lower than this morning’s opening figures.

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somrat4030

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June-02, 2022, Daily currency trading analysis and forex market forecast, by forex forum.​


Daily currency trading analysis and forex market forecast (1) copy.jpg

The U.S. dollar eased across the board on Thursday, ceding some of the ground gained in recent sessions as firmer risk sentiment prompted investors to reach for higher-yielding currencies.

The U.S. dollar currency index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, was 0.4% lower at 102.11, on pace to snap a two-day streak of gains.

The dollar found little support from data showing U.S. private payrolls increased far less than expected in May, which would suggest demand for labor was starting to slow amid higher interest rates and tightening financial conditions, though job openings remain extremely high.

EUR/USD​


EUR/USD rebounded on Thursday, though was unable to break back above the 1.0700 level or its 50-Day Moving Average just above it at 1.0723 and has since pulled back to change hands just below 1.0700. The pair is nonetheless still trading with on-the-day gains of about 0.5%, as the US dollar eases across the board amid a pullback from earlier weekly highs in US yields.

But there is a risk that Friday’s US jobs report rekindles some USD strength, if it shows US wage growth picking up once again. Labour market developments that raise the risks of high US inflation becoming embedded (such as rapid wage growth) will encourage the Fed to remove their foot from the monetary accelerator and onto the break at a faster pace. In this scenario, the EUR/USD bears will be eyeing a drop back towards the 21DMA around 1.0600.

GBP/USD

Elsewhere, GBP/USD called back some of yesterday’s downside in the Asian and European sessions after the dollar took its foot off the pedal as U.S. Treasury yields eased.

Currently, the UK economy is under pressure from rampant inflation and slowing manufacturing performance. Despite the uptick in yesterdays housing prices, it is likely that this will inevitably slow as the cost of living weighs on consumers. On the other hand, the U.S. economy is flexing its muscle and reinforcing its robustness in the current global climate via improved manufacturing data.

After finding support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.2494, GBP/USD price action now flirts with the 20-day EMA (purple). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads at the 50 level which is indicative of indecision in terms of upside or downside bias. My forecast remains toward the downside from a fundamental perspective (current) which leads to believe that support at 1.2400 and beyond are around the corner.

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USD/CAD


On the other hand, The USDCAD moved down to retest the low from yesterday at 1.26025. The low price reached 1.26033 and has bounced to 1.2616 currently. Looking at the hourly chart, the low price from Tuesday's trade stalled near 1.2626. Getting above that level would give the short-term buyers some comfort.

The sideways 200 day moving average at 1.26595 would be the next target followed by the falling 100 hour moving average 1.2670. The high price today at 1.2686 tested the high price from Tuesday near the same level.

XAU/USD

Spot gold (XAU/USD) prices rallied more than 1.0% on Thursday from the low $1840s per troy ounce to the upper $1860s and are currently probing late May highs just under $1870. An upside break would open the door, technically speaking to a run higher towards the 50-Day Moving Average, which is close to the $1900 level.

Thursday’s gains come as US yields and the US dollar back off from weekly highs, giving precious metals markets some tailwinds, and despite mixed tier two US labour market data (Q1 Unit Labour Cost was revised higher, May ADP Employment Change missed expectations and weekly jobless claims was decent). But any bullish breakout will likely have to wait until after Friday’s official US jobs report.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY is oscillating in a narrow range of 129.90-130.15 in the early European session as investors are awaiting the disclosure of the US Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change in May. As per the market consensus, the ADP Employment Change is seen at 300k vs.

No doubt the extent of additions of employment in the US labor force (except farming personnel) is likely to slip this month. The US ADP may disclose a figure of 300k while the consensus for the US Nonfarm Payrolls is 325k. It looks like the upward sloping employment curve will increase at a diminishing rate from now. The US labor market is extremely tight and has reached near its full capacity, which signals less room for more job additions in the workforce.

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somrat4030

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June-03, 2022, Daily currency market technical analysis and forecast, by forex forum.​


The EUR/USD failed to recover the 1.0750 zone and pulled back during Friday’s American session toward the 1.0700 area. It is about to end at the same level it had a week ago after the US dollar recovered strength following NFP and the ISM Service PMI.

Technical outlook

“The EUR/USD pair is trading just below the 50% retracement of its latest slide, measured between 1.1186 and 1.0348 at 1.0770. The weekly chart shows that the pair keeps developing well below all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA maintaining its bearish slope below the longer ones,” explained Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analysts at FXStreet. She noted the bullish potential remains limited, “although the trend may gather momentum if the pair breaks above the 61.8% retracement at 1.0855. Steady gains above the latter could mean an extension towards the critical 1.1000 figure.”

GBP/USD​


On the other hand, At the Bank of England’s last meeting on the 4th of May, members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 6-3 in favor of a 25 basis point hike with the other 3 in favor of a 50 bps hike. Since then, annual CPI inflation jumped from 7% in March to 9% in April as the harsh consequences of the war in Ukraine exacerbate existing supply chain issues. Russian oil accounts for around 8% of the UK’s oil imports and the island kingdom is committed to phasing this out by the end of the year.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The GBP/USD is still downward biased, as reflected by the daily chart. The daily moving averages (DMAs) above the exchange rate, alongside RSI’s readings turning bearish and with a downslope, opens the door for further losses. Nevertheless, if the GBP/USD is about to fall further, a break below the June 1 low at 1.2458 is required. Once cleared, the GBP/USD’s next support would be the May 17 daily low at 1.2313, followed by the YTD low at 1.2155.

USD/CAD​


Elsewhere, The USD/CAD edges up during the New York session, though earlier seesawed between minimal gains/losses of 0.01-0.03%, but remains above the weekly low of 1.2551, amidst investors’ risk-off mood. At 1.2572, the USD/CAD remains steady after the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) 50 bps rate hike earlier in the week.

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

From the daily chart perspective, the USD/CAD remains downward biased, but the RSI’s reading at 36.65, moving slightly up, suggests a correction might occur in the near term. Nevertheless, if the USD/CAD continues downwards and breaks below April’s 21 low at 1.2458, then a retest of the YTD lows at 1.2402 is on the cards.

Otherwise, the USD/CAD might head upwards to test the 1.2600. Failure of a daily close above the figure would keep the major in the 1.2550-1.2600 range.

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